Town hall 4 coc base

Afrika is a large continent of just over 30.3 million square kilometers; it is the third most extensive (behind Asia and America) with 20.3% of the total land area of the Planet...
The African continent is surrounded by the Atlantic (west) and Indian (east) oceans, in addition to the Mediterranean (north) and Red (northeast) seas. Its coastline, over 27 thousand km long, is quite regular, with few indentations and islands, with rare bays, gulfs or peninsulas, which makes it difficult to use it for port facilities. Three of the great terrestrial parallels cross Africa: Equator, Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn, in addition to the Greenwich Meridian. About 80% of its territory is in the intertropical zone, with most of its land located in the eastern hemisphere (east) and only a small part of it in the western hemisphere (north).
Hydrography: With the northern and southern regions practically taken over by deserts, Africa has relatively few rivers. Some of them are very extensive and voluminous, as they are located in tropical and equatorial regions; others traverse desert areas, making life possible along their margins. Few large rivers stand out. The greatest importance belongs to the Nile River, the second longest in the world (after the Solimões-Amazonas), whose length is over 6,500 km. It rises near Lake Victoria, runs through northeast Africa and flows into the Mediterranean Sea in the form of a 20,000 km2 delta, where one of the most important agricultural areas on the continent is located. In addition to the Nile, there are other important rivers for Africa, such as the Congo, a river in the equatorial zone, with a large volume of water and high hydroelectric potential. After traveling 4,400 km, it flows into the Atlantic, with the second largest flow in the world. There is also the Niger, which rises in Guinea, close to the Atlantic Ocean, and runs inland, penetrating the Sahara desert. Halfway there, it changes direction and falls on a long, narrow plain towards the south, flowing into the Gulf of Guinea, after covering 4,160 km. Less extensive, but equally relevant, are Zambezi, Senegal, Orange, Limpopo and Zaire. As for lakes, Africa has some that are larger and deeper, of tectonic and volcanic origin; the majority located in the east of the continent, such as Vitória, the third largest in the world, with almost 70 thousand m2, Rodolfo, Niassa and Tanganyika. The latter, almost 1,500 meters deep, highlights the great geological fault in which the lakes were housed. Thousands of small lakes in the region have water contaminated by salts and acids from volcanoes, which makes it unfeasible for the population to use.
The continent has five different time zones.
Africa is separated from Europe by the Mediterranean Sea and is connected to Asia at its northeast end by the Isthmus of Suez. However, Africa occupies a single tectonic plate, unlike Europe which shares the Eurasian Plate with Asia. Its geological base is formed by large and ancient tectonic plates, fractured in some regions; showing areas quite worn by erosion.
Extreme points - from its northernmost point, Cape Branco, to its southernmost point, Cape Agulhas, in South Africa, is a distance of approximately 8,000 km. From the westernmost point, Cape Verde, to the easternmost point, there is a distance of about 7,500 km. Among the coastal geographic features, the Gulf of Guinea, in the South Atlantic; and the Strait of Gibraltar, between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, near the Iberian Peninsula, in Europe. There is still in the east of the continent, the Peninsula of Somalia, also called the Horn of Africa, the Gulf of Aden, formed by waters of the Indian Ocean and limited by the Arabian peninsula, which belongs to Asia and the island of Madagascar, which delimits an important transport route. maritime traffic, the Mozambique channel.

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01 Credit Suisse's history of events
CreditSuisse (hereinafter referred to as Credit Suisse), founded in 1856, is an investment banking and financial services company dealing with personal and corporate financial services, banking products and pension and insurance services. CreditSuisse is the fifth largest global conglomerate and the second largest bank in Switzerland, with branches in more than fifty countries worldwide. Traditionally, Swiss banks include Credit Suisse, National Bank, and UBS Group (UBS merged with UBS AG in 1998), leaving only two large Swiss banks, Credit Suisse and and UBS AG.
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Credit Suisse event development history at a glance: freezing three feet, not a day's cold
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2018
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Former advisor forges clients' signatures for illegal gains
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2019
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"Surveillance scandal", alleged espionage
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2020
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"Surveillance scandal", resignation of COO and CEO
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2021
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Greensill collapses, Credit Suisse closes $10 billion fund holding its bonds
Archegos plunges, Credit Suisse loses $5.5 billion
Involved in Mozambique corruption scandal, fined $475 million
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2022
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Reports net loss of CHF 1.7 billion for fiscal 2021, profit warning raises market concerns
Convicted of helping Bulgarian drug cartels launder money
Announces three-year restructuring plan incorporating $4.2 billion
Saudi National Bank acquires $1.4 billion stake in Credit Suisse, becoming the largest shareholder with 9.9% of the shares
Data breach of 18,000 accounts with over CHF 100 billion in hidden wealth involving several serious criminal customers
Over CHF 110 billion withdrawn by depositors in the fourth quarter
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February 9, 2023
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Reports fiscal 2022 loss of $7.6 billion
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March 14, 2023
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Shares plunge 30% after claiming "material weaknesses" in FY 2021 and FY 2022 reporting process
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March 15, 2023
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Saudi National Bank chairman says refuses to assist Credit Suisse in increasing liquidity
Swiss central bank says it will provide liquidity to Credit Suisse if necessary
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March 16, 2023
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Announces it will borrow up to CHF 50 billion from the Swiss central bank
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March 20, 2023
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Credit Suisse faces up to $10 billion a day in depositor withdrawals for nearly a week, sources say
UBS reached an agreement with Credit Suisse and the Swiss central bank to acquire Credit Suisse for $3.23 billion
Credit Suisse's 16 billion Swiss franc AT1 bonds written down to 0 on the same day as required by Swiss regulators
Some Asian banks' AT1 bonds dive sharply, hitting the biggest drop of 20%
UBS five-year credit default swap widens to 175 basis points, highest level on record
Saudi National Bank confirms it lost nearly 80% of its investment in Credit Suisse, more than $1 billion
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02 Pros, Cons and Potential Impact of the Credit Suisse Acquisition
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As one of the world's systemically important banks, the bankruptcy of Credit Suisse would have enormous secondary damage, which in turn would affect the entire financial system. Potential solutions for Credit Suisse include takeover, closure, spin-off and nationalization. on March 19, 2023, the Swiss government held a press conference in which UBS AG (UBS) acquired Credit Suisse for 0.76 Swiss francs per share at a total price of 3 billion Swiss francs, with substantial losses for all shareholders who previously held Credit Suisse shares. The Swiss central bank committed to provide up to CHF 100 billion in emergency liquidity loan support to the merged bank, while the government provided a CHF 9 billion guarantee for potential losses on the assets taken over by UBS. Some market participants have commented that the proposal is the most reasonable of all possible options, but there is a risk that the proposal does not treat investors fairly.
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In general, the advantages of bank mergers as a potential solution during a banking crisis are: first, increased stability: bank mergers can potentially increase the stability of the financial system by creating larger, more diversified banks that are better able to withstand financial shocks. Second, it reduces risk: by merging, banks can reduce individual risk exposures by diversifying their portfolios and spreading risk across a larger entity. In the case of the Credit Suisse acquisition specifically, the key was to stabilize market expectations. Bankers and the government hope that the Credit Suisse case will demonstrate the central bank's and the government's protection of the banking sector, which in turn will allow investors who are still on the sidelines to re-enter banking stocks, stabilizing market expectations and putting the current crisis on hold.
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But whether the Credit Suisse acquisition can achieve its expected effect is controversial. The day the acquisition was announced, UBS's five-year credit default swap expanded to 175 basis points, reaching a record high. As a result of Credit Suisse's discounted deal, Saudi National Bank confirmed that it lost nearly 80% of its investment in Credit Suisse, more than $1 billion. In addition, the combined UBS Group would have total assets of more than $1.5 trillion, and the excessive asset size could pose a risk to Switzerland. The acquisition could also have a negative impact on the Swiss job market, with the merger of the two banks likely to result in some 10,000 layoffs.
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More controversially, Credit Suisse's CHF 16 billion AT1 bonds were written down to zero as required by Swiss regulators. under Basel III, common equity tier 1 capital (CET1) is the first capital to be written down, followed by additional tier 1 capital (AT1) and Tier 2 capital. However, in the Credit Suisse case, the common shareholders' equity at the top of the write-down order was protected to a certain extent but AT1, which was relatively at the bottom, was written down in full, which was inconsistent with the loss-absorbing order stipulated in Basel III, which triggered significant volatility in the AT1 market. According to Bloomberg Industry Research, no other bank in Europe, except Credit Suisse and UBS, has provisions that allow full write-downs of AT1 while retaining some value for equity investors.
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Credit Suisse AT1 capital is basically CoCo debt (contingent convertible debt). This bond variety was created in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis to meet the capital requirements for banks set out in Basel III, introduced in 2010, as a financial instrument to protect the capital adequacy of banks. When a bank meets certain triggers, such as the CET1 ratio dropping to a certain level or being unable to continue operations (Point of Non-Viability (PoNV)), CoCo bonds will be forced to stop paying interest and converted into shares or written down to improve the bank's capital adequacy ratio. It is the lowest-rated class of bank bonds, offering attractive returns in boom times and bearing the brunt of threats when banks run into trouble. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Holdings Inc. has 13 outstanding tranches of CoCos bonds worth $17.3 billion, denominated in Swiss francs, U.S. dollars and Singapore dollars. Such bonds represent slightly more than 20% of its total debt. The largest number of U.S. dollar-denominated CoCo bonds, including $2 billion of perpetual bonds that could have been redeemed in July this year, and $2.25 billion of bonds with a first callable date in December.
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Swiss financial regulator FINMA said in a website announcement that the acquisition would trigger a "full write-down" of Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds to strengthen the bank's core capital because of the unconventional government support. The trigger for Credit Suisse's CoCo bonds is a CET1 < 7% or a viability event. According to media reports, Credit Suisse's capital adequacy ratio is well above the 7% threshold that triggers the write-down of AT1 bonds. As of the end of 2022, the bank's CET1 ratio was 14.1%. This trigger is thus likely to be the occurrence of a survivability event. Prior to this, in 2017, junior bondholders of Spanish bank Banco PopularSA had their bonds written down by around €1.35 billion following the bank's acquisition by Banco Santander, when the company's shares were also written off, while regulators forced the cancellation of its CoCo bonds, but on a much smaller scale than Credit Suisse.
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After the news was released, the market reacted sharply, once triggering market panic, European shares fell more than 2% at the beginning of the session, double-digit plunge in bond yields in Europe and the United States, some banks in Asia and Europe AT1 bonds jumped sharply, hitting the largest drop of 20%, safe-haven demand made gold rise above $ 2000 for the first time in a year. Credit Suisse European and U.S. stocks both fell more than 50% to a new low, UBS European shares fell 16% after turning up, but the cost of one-year CDS credit default swaps hit an eleven-year high. Large U.S. banks turned down in late trading, First Republic Bank fell 50% intraday and multiple meltdowns to record lows.
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After the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, the U.S. banking industry has seen deposits moving from small and medium-sized banks to large banks, and there are media reports that small and medium-sized U.S. banks with assets of less than $250 billion are responsible for 80% of commercial real estate loans, 60% of industrial and commercial loans, 50% of real estate mortgages, and 45% of consumer loans. The Credit Suisse incident is bound to increase market concerns about the banking sector in Europe and the United States. The Fed's balance sheet expanded by about $300 billion in recent weeks after the Fed launched its Term Financing Program (BTFP). On Sunday the Fed and six other major global central banks announced coordinated action to enhance the supply of liquidity in permanent dollar swap arrangements. The U.S. is also reportedly studying ways to provide guarantees for all bank deposits as a "pre-emptive plan" for an intensifying crisis. European banking regulators reassured the market that equities would take losses ahead of AT1 bonds. The Bank of England said AT1 bonds will be paid in order before equity investors and after Tier 2 capital (T2) bonds.
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03 A review of the comparison with the global financial crisis in 2008
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The Credit Suisse incident has become the current "Bear Stearns moment" overseas. In the 2008 financial crisis, Bear Stearns was acquired by JP Morgan Chase, but the subsequent crisis could not be stopped, followed by the collapse of Lehman, which eventually triggered the global financial crisis. How will the global banking industry risk transmission go this time? Let's first review the transmission path of the 2008 financial crisis, which was a global crisis triggered by the collapse of the U.S. real estate market. The crisis began in the United States and quickly spread to the rest of the world. Here is a review of the transmission chain of how this crisis unfolded:
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1. Real estate bubble: At the beginning of the 21st century, low interest rates and lax lending standards led to a real estate bubble in the United States. The U.S. housing market peaked at the end of 2006, and from 2002-2006, total U.S. residential real estate market value increased from $16 trillion to $23 trillion, and total residential real estate market value rose from 110% to 150% of GDP. Home prices soared and many people bought homes they could not afford.

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1. Asset securitization innovation & subprime mortgages: Based on home loan mortgage-backed securities (MBS), more complex CMOs and CDOs emerged. to hedge against default risk, CDO issuers bought credit default swaps (CDS), and insurance agencies were sellers of credit default swaps (CDS) and assumed the corresponding risk. Asset securitization has led to increased mortgage funding, and increased investor demand for mortgage-related securities means that some borrowers with poor credit histories can also obtain loans. In addition, investment banks have continued to innovate with lower minimum down payments and declining interest rates, resulting in variable rate mortgages, interest-only mortgages and negative amortization mortgages. in 2003-2004, U.S. subprime mortgages accounted for only 6% of total mortgages, while in 2005-2006 this percentage rose to 20%. According to CNN, in 2006, the U.S. subprime loans amounted to $640 billion, about twice as much as three years ago, subprime mortgages accounted for 20% of the total size of the U.S. national mortgage market, financial companies, hedge funds in the hands of subprime mortgage-backed bonds worth $1 trillion.

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1. Real estate market collapse: As interest rates continued to rise from 2003-2006, home prices plummeted and many homeowners defaulted on their mortgages when the housing bubble began to burst in 2007-2008. 2. Asset securitization innovations & subprime mortgages: Based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for home loans, more sophisticated CMOs and CDOs emerged. in order to hedge against the risk of default, the CDO issuers buy credit default swaps (CDS), and insurance institutions are sellers of credit default swaps (CDS) and bear the corresponding risk. Asset securitization has led to increased mortgage funding, and increased investor demand for mortgage-related securities means that some borrowers with poor credit histories can also obtain loans. In addition, investment banks have continued to innovate with lower minimum down payments and declining interest rates, resulting in variable rate mortgages, interest-only mortgages and negative amortization mortgages. in 2003-2004, U.S. subprime mortgages accounted for only 6% of total mortgages, while in 2005-2006 this percentage rose to 20%. According to CNN, throughout 2006, the U.S. subprime loans amounted to $640 billion, about twice as much as three years ago, subprime mortgages accounted for 20% of the total size of the U.S. national mortgage market, and the total value of bonds collateralized by subprime mortgages in the hands of financial companies and hedge funds reached $1 trillion.

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4, bank failure: a large number of banks and other financial institutions invested in these complex derivatives suffered huge losses. April 2, 2007 was the starting point of the "subprime mortgage crisis", this day, the second largest subprime mortgage institutions in the United States New Century Financial Corporation filed for bankruptcy protection, in March 2008, JP Morgan Chase to $ 236 million to buy Bear Stearns Bank, to avoid the burst of financial assets. On September 15, Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, an important U.S. investment bank that had invested heavily in the real estate market and owned a large number of assets such as mortgage securities (MBS) and derivatives, but these assets rapidly depreciated in value after the housing market collapse. The huge size of the liabilities in these balance sheets made the company unable to pay its debts in a liquidity crisis, which eventually led to the bankruptcy of the company and triggered the outbreak of the global financial crisis.
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1. Global financial crisis: The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers caused a great impact on the global financial market and triggered the global financial crisis. The bankruptcy led to the disintegration of confidence in other financial institutions, rising borrowing costs, tight market liquidity, and the risk of bankruptcy for many companies and banks. Governments and central banks around the world took a series of measures to mitigate this crisis, such as launching massive bailout programs, lowering interest rates, and providing financial assistance. However, these measures did not fully resolve the financial crisis, and the U.S. and global economies fell into recession in the following years.

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The global financial crisis had a profound impact on the development of the global economy and financial market system: First, the crisis highlighted the need to strengthen financial regulation to prevent excessive risk-taking and ensure the stability of the financial system. Since then, governments around the world have introduced new regulatory requirements to increase transparency, limit leverage, and reduce systemic risk. The second is the contagious nature of the financial crisis, which showed the interconnectedness of financial markets and how problems in one part of the world can quickly spread to other parts of the world. This has led to increased international cooperation and coordination among regulators and central banks. Third, the crisis demonstrated the risks associated with complex financial instruments, such as synthetic CDOs. hence the need for greater emphasis on transparency, risk management of financial products. Fourth, the importance of liquidity in the financial system. When credit markets froze, it was difficult for firms to get the financing they needed, which exacerbated the economic downturn. Since then, central banks have introduced measures to increase liquidity in the financial system during the crisis. Fifth is the role of government intervention. The crisis proved the need for government intervention in the economy in times of crisis. Governments around the world provided fiscal stimulus and implemented accommodative monetary policies to stabilize their economies and prevent further recession.
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04 The impact and insights of this Credit Suisse incident
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First, the global financial system is under increased pressure from systemic risks, and risks are still being transmitted. From a market perception perspective, the direct impact of the Silicon Valley bankruptcy was limited to some regional banks in the U.S. The impact of the Credit Suisse incident on the global financial markets and economy was of a different magnitude. The much-discussed full write-down of approximately $17 billion of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds triggered a widespread sell-off of AT1 bonds in Asia-Pacific and European markets, with financial institutions with heavy positions suffering large losses. Despite the rebound in AT1 bond prices in Asian markets on Tuesday, it is feared that investors' confusion and anxiety over the order of AT1 liquidation will not be fully dispelled. This market of up to about $275 billion may face a deep freeze, which will no doubt also trigger market concerns about the health of the global banking sector on a wider scale and will hit more financial institutions, and it is difficult to say that the market turmoil will end.
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Confidence is the cornerstone of a properly functioning financial sector. From the credit market, the market is generally expected to see a contraction of credit, which will accelerate the emergence of the U.S. banking sector credit inflection point, will also make the Federal Reserve's decision more difficult, the market recession expectations in the rise. From the financial market, the Silicon Valley Bank incident superimposed on the Credit Suisse incident, the banking industry in Europe and the United States have to switch to the crisis mode, the risk of spreading the trend. The transmission chain of the U.S. subprime crisis is a real estate default → MBS prices plummeted → CDO prices annihilation → financial institutions collapse, and the banking crisis is likely to develop along the chain of interest rates rose sharply → market value loss → deposits and other liabilities outflow sharply → liquidity risk outbreak → collapse, be acquired, the U.S. government policy on the expansion of the scope of deposit insurance landing remains to be seen, at least until then The problem of regional banks in the US will continue. Investors are concerned that losses from rising interest rates + liquidity problems will eventually trigger asset quality problems for financial institutions.
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Past research has shown that financial crises are contagious, with financial market correlations increasing significantly in crisis mode and volatility spillovers. Although from the current market volatility, in addition to the U.S. bond market volatility has hit a new high since 2008, foreign exchange, stocks and other markets volatility rise relatively small, but need to be alert to the European and American banking crisis is not handled properly, may trigger a global financial market tsunami and global cross-border capital flows dramatically, be alert to the formation of China's financial market impact.
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Second, the reputation of the Swiss banking sector has been hit again, and the cracks in the international monetary system have deepened. The Swiss banking industry has been criticized in recent years for helping the rich to avoid taxes. Since 2007, 85 Swiss banks have been fined a total of $5 billion for helping U.S. bank clients hide their wealth, including Credit Suisse, which was fined $2.5 billion in 2014 for helping wealthy Americans avoid taxes. Some of the practices of Swiss banks during the Russia-Ukraine conflict have caused customers to worry that the nature of their banking industry is changing again. Credit Suisse alone has frozen some CHF 17.6 billion of Russian assets, or about 33% of all assets of Russian natural and legal persons in Switzerland, according to the Swiss daily newspaper Le Journal. A large number of deposits of non-Western clients are accelerating out of the major Swiss banks. Credit Suisse, for example, had an outflow of CHF 123.2 billion for the year 2022, and in the fourth quarter alone, customers withdrew CHF 110.5 billion in funds from Credit Suisse. And this anti-conventional decision by Swiss regulators to write down the full amount of AT1 bonds hit the market so hard that the ECB had to step in to emphasize that the EU's order of indemnity criteria are not set by Switzerland. And this incident made the Saudi National Bank, which took a stake last year, lose 1.1 billion Swiss francs in less than 15 weeks, sounding another alarm for the acquisition of problematic financial institutions across borders.
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The West's financial sanctions against Russia in recent years have raised concerns about the reliability of the dollar as an international reserve currency, and the Swiss banking sector's involvement has called into question its adherence to the principle of neutrality. Against the backdrop of a century of unprecedented change, the cracks in the international monetary system are deepening and the financial order is undergoing intense restructuring in the wake of the crisis. The recent increase in gold purchases by central banks and the continued rise in the price of gold are a reaction to the distrust of the existing international monetary system. The multipolarization of currencies may be an important direction in the future, and the RMB will play a greater role in the construction of the new pattern due to the gradual improvement of the Chinese economy, the increasing depth of the market and the expanding use of overseas. The historic window for the RMB to increase its internationalization and become a more widespread settlement and reserve currency may be emerging.

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