Zillow homes for sale jupiter fl
Real Estate Listings
2012.08.30 05:56 toothball Real Estate Listings
Have you seen a property and want to talk about it? See anything that you would like to share with another Redditor? Property that is too rich for your blood, but might be good for another? Post it here, with the Location and Cross Streets, and a link to the listing, and your thoughts on the property. Note: Reddit does not, in its self, represent any of these properties, nor do its admins/moderators. The opinions of these properties belong to those who submit them.
2009.01.22 17:01 Naples Real Estate
A subreddit to discuss real estate in and near Naples, FL and to share listings of homes for sale in the area. This is NOT a rental subreddit, please do not post about rental units or homes here.
2023.06.03 03:16 h0neyedwords becoming independent - needing advice and help please
MILD TW*** This will be long.
I’m 27, in the US, and live at home with my parents. I am stable at the moment but I need to get out as my parents are rather toxic. I just don’t know what I need to do to be my own person.
Here’s what I have to work with: • I have 2 very small incomes, it is not substantial but it’s something in a pinch. I do not have problems with wild spending, I do not have any outstanding debt aside from student loans. I do have a 700 credit score. I do not have much in terms of savings right now. • I have enough credits in college to jump immediately into a degree. Just been indecisive and scared to make a decision. • I do have work history but it is very spotty. Only bad terms with 1 job. I have warehouse and customer service experience. • I have access to a smart phone and a car while I live here. • I CANNOT do over night work, morning and afternoon ok.
I do have some things I could sell to help lighten my load and get more savings. I do not have any friends here, or network other than my therapist and psych. I can pass a drug test. I have no criminal record. Some medical issues but nothing substantial. I am working with a staffing agency but nothing that they’re comfortable putting me on so far. I am not tied to this state, have a passport. My fiancé is Canadian but I don’t want to resort to just marriage visa and be impulsive.
Obvious answer is work history and skills but what skills? What job would help benefit me the most, being a bipolar person? Would volunteering help? Resources for how to get my own vehicle without being robbed by a sales person? Grateful for any advice or tips I receive, I just want to not hold myself back anymore.
Thank you.
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2023.06.03 03:13 tanxans RIP TONY
2023.06.03 03:06 coffee-everywhere Struggling after college
Hey y’all,
It’s been about a month since I’ve graduated from college. I got my bachelor’s in communication studies so I’m looking at working in public relations. I’ve been applying for jobs every day since, but I get frequently get turned away due to a lack of experience. It feels like a lot of “entry-level” jobs require 2-3 years experience, and a lot of communication jobs overlap with sales, so it’s very frustrating and discouraging. I’m living at home because my plan is to save up for a place to live, once I get a job. I don’t mind being at home and helping my parents around the house, but I hate being unemployed because I have no structure or routine. I’m definitely jealous of people I’ve graduated with who already have a job and how easy the job search seems for people my age while I’m struggling. I had a fairly active social life in college, and it’s hard making and keeping friends as an adult. Don’t get me started on my lack of a dating life because I’m convinced I’ll never find my person. Needless to say, I’m starting to deal with some depression as a result of all this and I need guidance.
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2023.06.03 03:01 Saturdead The Many Deaths of the Six-Door House
I’ve been waiting to talk about this. I’ve been looking for others with similar experiences, or… I dunno. Maybe I hoped I was insane. Months have passed, and I still don’t have the slightest idea what to believe. But no matter what is true and what isn’t, the memory of what happened to me is as true as can be.
And every time I put my hand to a door, I tremble.
I was looking for a house in the surrounding area. I know, being a homeowner at 27 seems like a dream. I know I’ve been fortunate. Even so, I wanted something remote, spacious, and comparably cheap.
I’d been looking for something nearby, but everything even close to a larger city quickly ran out of my price range. It wasn’t until I started looking at the rural outskirts that I started to see something realistic.
I’d been to four open house showings in the past week when I came across an ad that looked too good to be true. Another open house, but this one was just perfect. Apparently, they were looking to make a quick sale after a previous deal had fallen through.
I made my way to a small nearby town called Tomskog. There was a little billboard with a blue sunflower greeting me, and I took a hard right down a street named “Sunplenty Road”. There were only five houses there, and the one I came to look at was at the far end. Even from a distance, I could tell I wasn’t the only visitor.
I parked on the street outside and took in the sights. There was an “Open House” sign outside, again with the sunflower logo. There was a separate garage, and the house itself was smaller than expected. Homely, but small.
I was greeted by a cheerful man. He had thick glasses, a receding hairline, and the kind of “fun uncle” smile that told me he could get away with anything.
“Come on in,” he said. “You’re gonna love it.”
There was me, the realtor, and three other people. A middle-aged couple, and a younger woman. She had this messy black hair that kept poking her in the eye. Even at a glance I could tell the young woman was distraught. She wasn’t even looking around the house, she seemed more interested in the people wandering about.
The house had a simple and open layout. The bottom floor had a bathroom, a separate study room, an adjoining kitchen, and a lounge area. There were stairs leading to a sort of catwalk on the second floor, making the main room wide open. The second floor had another bathroom, a bedroom, and a guest room.
It had this sort of sullen 70’s vibe with grey and white flower-patterned wallpaper. There were little scuffs and tears pretty much everywhere, but the house itself seemed… fine.
The realtor, Anders, showed me all the details of the kitchen. He assured me that most of the appliances were to be replaced before the next homeowner moved in, and proudly displayed the new garbage disposal. It was a nice enough setup, but I couldn’t tear my eyes away from the young woman standing outside the study. I got the feeling that she was standing guard.
As the middle-aged couple walked downstairs, they asked her they could have a look.
“No,” she answered, with a shrug. “You can’t.”
“Don’t mind her,” Anders the realtor smiled. “Of course you can.”
“No,” she insisted. “They can’t.”
Anders walked up to her and leaned in. His demeanor shifted. They argued back and forth, and I could hear her repeat, over and over;
“This is not what we agreed to.”
The middle-aged couple and I just looked at one another. While the realtor and the young woman argued, we introduced ourselves. I smiled and gave them my name. They were named Helen and Sebastian, or ‘Seb’ for short. Typical midwestern salt-of-the-earth kind of people. They were suffering from an empty nest and seemed to want a place to start over. They made no secret about being interested in the place, although Helen wasn’t sure about having no direct access to the garage. Seb, on the other hand, wasn’t sure about the soil. He wanted a proper garden, and the soil seemed ill-fit to sustain greenery.
“Still,” Helen smiled. “Best place we’ve seen so far.”
“Sure is,” added Seb, giving Helen a little shake.
Anders kept arguing with the young woman. I could overhear her name as Whitney, and she was not willing to cooperate. Finally, Anders just pushed past her, putting his keys in the lock.
“Right this way, we’ll just take a quick peek.”
“We’re not done in there,” she said. “You can’t just-“
“It was supposed to be packed up, Whitney. I can’t help that you’re late.”
“That’s not… please. Give me an hour.”
“You’ve had plenty of hours.”
He clicked the door open and pushed it in. The three of us gave Whitney an apologetic look as we stepped inside.
The study was a mess. Old clothes strewn across various furniture, loose papers and books haphazardly thrown across a musky desk. An entire wall of bookshelves full of textbooks, ranging from discrete mathematics to philosophical physics. I stood there for a few seconds, taking it all in. Whitney pushed past us, grabbing an empty box from the floor.
“Don’t touch anything,” she sighed. “Just… look at it, and leave.”
Anders leaned over to us, lowering his voice.
“You have to excuse her,” he whispered. “There were some… complications, with the former owner.”
“Oh, she’s… the, uh, the daughter?” Seb asked.
Anders nodded.
While Anders told us about the east-facing windows and the top-of-the-line air conditioning system, I couldn’t help but to keep my eyes on Whitney. She was rummaging through the desk, dropping mementos, pictures, and notebooks into one of her many cardboard boxes. I could tell she was sleep deprived. She kept yawning.
Helen seemed eager to just leave Whitney to her grieving, while Seb kept to the practical details. He checked the hardwood floor, the insulation on the windows, the wall linings for pests. At one point, he almost knocked over a coffee table, and Whitney came running. She caught a vase that was about to topple off the table.
“Don’t… don’t touch anything!” she cried out. “Just… if you have to be here, stay… stay still!”
“I’m, uh… sorry,” Seb said. “I was just-“
“Just go over there!”
She waved her hands around, shaking the vase. There was a little rattle coming from it.
She shook it again, and I could see the color fade from her cheeks. Carefully, she tipped the vase, and something dark plopped into her hand.
A large bronze key.
Whitney pulled her hand back, letting the bronze key clatter to the floor. She covered her mouth, forgetting how to exhale. We just looked at her having what seemed, to us, like a mental breakdown.
“Nobody move,” she gasped. “Nobody… do anything.”
We all just stood there. Helen and Seb barely breathed, and I was suddenly hyper-aware of how still my feet were. Anders wasn’t impressed. If anything, he was fed up with this. He rolled his eyes, and picked up the key.
“Whitney, I’m sorry, you’re gonna have to wait outside.”
“Please, put… put that down.”
“You can put it with your things and take it outside.”
“Just… don’t move, you don’t know what you’re-“
Anders opened the door, stepped out of the study, and headed straight for the front door. Whitney dropped everything and ran after him. The rest of us followed suit.
“Wait!” she called out. “Please wait!”
As soon as Anders put his hand on the front door, Whitney stopped dead in her tracks.
“Anders, please, I’m sorry,” she said. “Just step away. Give me the key. I’ll leave, I promise. I swear.”
“That’s enough of that.”
“No!”
He opened the door and took a step forward. The bronze key passed the threshold.
We’d all stepped into the main lounge by now, and I heard the door to the study slam shut. There was a sort of pressure shift, making the wind move through the main lounge. Every door in the house slid shut with a click. All except the front door, which was wide open.
But there was nothing there.
Not nothing as in no one standing there. No, nothing as in “a nothing”. Just a blank, black space.
A viscous fluid where sunlight ought to be.
Endless, abyssal, ocean.
I stared at it, mesmerized. The contrast of the bright sun coming in from the windows, bouncing off the ripples of this deep ocean doorway.
And there, in the dark, humanoids. Tall, elongated silhouettes.
Anders stepped back, but it was as if parts of him refused to move. His arms were locked in place, seemingly by an invisible force. And as he stepped back, something started pulling him in.
His limbs grew long and twisted. His knees bending and snapping at impossible angles. His scalp pulled backwards, the loose skin of his face revealing the bottom white of his eyes.
“He… help!”
It was all he managed to say, as he was pulled into the dark. Limbs were quietly ripped from his sockets, as his human frame was bent, twisted, torn, and mangled. Black water mixing with marrow as dark shapes turned Anders into what resembled an underwater cloud of flesh and cloth.
Whitney threw herself forward, slamming the door shut, leaving the bronze key on the floor.
Screams erupted, and I didn’t even notice they were mine. It was this primal force being pulled out of me, this need to scream. Like a baby desperate for her mother. Helen backed into a corner and sunk to the floor, with Seb trying his best to comfort her. Whitney just sat there looking at the bronze key; her face breaking out in cold sweats.
I felt something turn in my stomach and headed for the bathroom. Whitney ran after me, but she couldn’t make it in time. I burst through the bathroom door and collapsed on the floor, hyperventilating. Whitney stayed outside, looking at me in shock.
“It’s… you’re… you’re fine,” she said. “You’re okay.”
I wasn’t. But compared to Anders, panicking on the bathroom floor seemed like a mercy.
Whitney stayed with me as I calmed down. Seb and Helen joined us. After a few minutes of silence, Whitney excused herself. She came back with pile of notebooks. She sat down across the hall from me, making sure not to enter the bathroom.
“My dad, he… found something,” she said. “I wasn’t sure exactly what.”
“We should… we should leave,” said Helen. “We should leave right now.”
“We can climb out a window,” said Seb. “If the, uh… the door is…”
“Just… please,” sighed Whitney. “Just stay. We’ll figure it out.”
“I-I mean no offense,” said Helen. “But what… what on earth was that?”
Whitney turned the notebook to a specific page and read aloud.
“I’ve been marooned in this house for thirty days. I never know where the Door is. Sometimes I can hear water, sometimes not. I tried the windows, but it nearly burst my eardrums from the pressure as water came rushing in. I can’t leave. I can’t move. They wait behind the Door. They wait for me to open.”
Whitney scratched her head. Helen looked back and forth, as if waiting for something to make sense. Seb just shook his head.
“What… what does that even mean?” asked Helen. “What happened?”
“It has to do with the doors,” Whitney explained. “They wait behind the Door.”
“There’s nothing there,” said Seb. “There’s light coming through the windows.”
“It’s… it’s not that easy. It’s when you open it.”
“That doesn’t make any sense.”
Whitney stood up and handed Helen three notebooks.
“We can argue the details of dad’s quantum entanglement experiment later, but that’s not gonna help us.”
“So… let’s just go then,” said Seb. “Let’s leave.”
“You wanna take your chances on the front door? That it won’t come back? Go ahead.”
Seb took a few tentative steps up to the front door. Helen wanted to protest, but she just started looking back and forth. Whitney crossed her arms and turned away.
“I can’t hear anything,” said Seb. “Are you sure it’s there?”
“It’s somewhere,” said Whitney. “I don’t… I don’t know the rules. It has to do with the doors.”
I got up off the bathroom floor and looked at them. Seb took his hand off the front door and stepped back. Whitney turned her attention to me.
“You put yourself at risk,” said Whitney. “That could’ve killed you.”
“The bathroom?”
“The door to the bathroom. Any or all of these doors, it… it could be connected. Here, let me-“
Whitney walked up to Helen and took one of the notebooks back. She turned to one of the latter pages.
“The framework of passageway. Concept of thought. Paired in alignment, the darkness standing shy from the mirrored back of Empyrean. Realm unwilled and unbound, misshapen by collective subconscious. We cannot pass, our world-forgotten blocks dissipated. Like a bridge cannot be built of water, and a house cannot be built of wind. But the great craftsman blames not their tools; and eternal gold can be found in humble bronze.”
“Bronze,” I said. “Like the key.”
“Look, my dad, he… we weren’t on speaking terms. I’ve looked at all this for days, and all I can tell is that he was off his rocker. He died in that room.”
Whitney pointed to the study. Helen hugged Seb tight, holding back a sob.
“He couldn’t leave. He was convinced that the… the door would eat him.”
Helen sat down by the kitchen table. Thankfully, there was no door in-between the kitchen and the main lounge. Seb walked straight up to Whitney, grabbed her by the collar of her blouse, and slammed her up against the wall; his calm demeanor cracking at the seams.
“We shouldn’t be here,” he said. “This is your fault!”
“I-I didn’t know! It was all just ramblings! I didn’t have time to clear it all out, how… how could I have known?!”
“You recognized the key,” said Helen. “You chased after him. You asked him to wait.”
“That’s the only part that keeps coming back!” Whitney yelled. “Check the notebooks! The key, it’s… it’s everywhere! It’s everything!”
“So what do we do?” Seb asked. “Do we use it or destroy it?”
Whitney looked at the pile of notebooks she’d managed to gather from the study. It was only a handful of everything we’d seen in there, but it might be enough to get some semblance of an answer.
The house had six doors. The front door, the bathroom door, the study room door. On the top floor, there was another bathroom door, a door to the guest bedroom, and the main bedroom door. The bathroom door on the bottom floor was already open and considered safe. I could step in and out without a problem.
Whitney explained as best as she could.
Her father had grown increasingly paranoid since divorcing Whitney’s mother. He’d locked himself in his house, committing fully to his studies. He’d always been a bit agoraphobic, and having a reason not to leave the house was a bit of a blessing in disguise. But over time, that blessing turned into a curse. An early entry read;
“For years, I’ve longed for the presence of mind to devote myself. And now that I can, I find myself wanting. I can’t be certain. There is a Door, a passage. It binds itself seemingly spontaneously. There is a risk involved, and it is a risk I cannot take.”
Seb tried to call for help, but water started pouring out of his phone. Whitney found a page about “semi-passages” or “shortcuts”. Things that could be used as portals to another person or place. They weren’t as conceptually clean as a door, and thus wouldn’t invite “Them”, but the connection would go through that dark place. The place that, somehow, her father had stumbled upon.
I looked at the key for a long time. I didn’t dare to touch it. It was unassuming, in a way. It was old and had this sort of blocky texture; like it was made of little squares. While Helen and Seb rifled through notebooks, Whitney looked up and talked to me.
“He just wanted a way to go wherever he wanted, without having to traverse the space in-between. To just go from one door to another. All he needed was a key.”
“But why now? Why is… how are we trapped?” I asked. “We got in here just fine.”
“The realtor,” sighed Whitney. “He tried to leave with the key. I think that triggered it.”
“So how do we un-trigger it?”
Whitney shrugged and pointed to the notebooks.
We had endless discussions. We compared notes, drew out theories. Helen thought we could force the bronze key out a window, but Whitney theorized that it’d just leave us locked inside. I suggested we listened at each door, just to eliminate which ones were safe and which weren’t. We tried, but there was seemingly no way to tell. Sometimes I could hear rushing water on the other side. Scratches on the wood. Other times, nothing. Even going back to the same door, it’d sound differently each time.
We considered opening several doors at once. We spread ourselves out. I was at the upstairs bedroom door, right next to Seb by the guest room door. Whitney was downstairs by the study door, and Helen insisted on the front door. We all put our hands on the handles. I wasn’t sure if I could hear something on the other side or not; my heart was pounding too loudly.
There were six doors. Five were closed, one open. Someone was probably going to die.
“There is only ever one Door. He only speaks of it as a singular. It can change over time,” said Whitney. “This is our best shot.”
“We can’t know for sure,” said Seb. “And why do we even want to open them all? There’s nothing in the bedrooms, right?”
“We’re excluding,” I said. “Like we did with the downstairs bathroom.”
“We should close it,” said Helen. “Shouldn’t that improve our chances of… of our other doors being okay?”
“I have no idea,” sighed Whitney. “Are we doing this?”
Seb backed away from his door, taking the hand off the handle.
“It ain’t right,” he said. “None of it. It ain’t right.”
Everything erupted into an argument. Seb couldn’t bring himself to risk his life for anything less than an exit, and Helen couldn’t stop crying at the thought of that dark abyss. I couldn’t blame her. To this day, I can’t stop imagining it. Whitney, trying to act as a voice of reason, read aloud from one of the notebooks.
“The concept of the passageway, the Door, changes at the flick of a thought. An alien thought, like an invisible, uncontrollable shadow of the psyche. It refuses to be controlled. My exit could be my end; or as likely, a wooden frame. Much like we cannot control the smoke of a campfire, we cannot foresee the turning of the passageway.”
We all looked at one another. Helen collapsed by the front door, crying. Whitney was close to a mental breakdown. I felt this enormous burden settle in my stomach, like I was missing something.
“Let’s take the door off the hinges”, said Seb. “We’ll turn it into a… an arch. Then it ain’t a door anymore. You think that’ll work?”
“In theory, maybe,” said Whitney. “But how do we do that without opening it?”
“We’ll… we’ll take the whole frame off,” Seb said. “There’s a crowbar under the sink. Saw it when I checked the garbage disposal.”
Helen bent down next to the sink, put her hand on the kitchen cabinet handle. I gasped.
Was that considered a door? Could it kill her? Would it?
I imagined that dark, cold abyss. That enormous force pulling me in, turning my very form into this unrecognizable mass. Where no screams can be heard. All I’d have to show for such unimaginable anguish would be a burst of bubbles; then nothing.
“No!” I cried out. “Stop!”
But it was too late.
Nothing happened. Helen opened it, pulled out the crowbar, and that was that. But for a brief moment, I realized how Whitney’s father must’ve felt. That uncertainty, not knowing for sure if that one flick of the wrist would be damnation; or nothing.
Helen handed the crowbar to Seb, while Whitney gave me a pat on the shoulder. I couldn’t stop crying. My whole body was shaking from the sudden rush of adrenaline. Meanwhile, Seb walked up to the front door and started tapping the wood.
The theory was this; if there was no door, nothing could come through. There was no point in doing a test run, because if it didn’t work, someone would lose their life either way. It was better to have an honest chance of getting out.
Whitney gathered towels. She had this idea that, maybe, water might start leaking if the door was turned into a semi-passage, like a window. If so, we might have to find a way to quickly stop the flow.
By the time we got the towels, Seb started working on the door frame. As that first crack rang out, I heard a click.
The front door slid open.
Without a moment’s thought, Seb pushed it close. It had barely opened an inch.
We all held our breaths. We were fine. Nothing was happening.
“It’s… it’s clear!” Helen called out. “There’s nothing there! I saw it, it… it was nothing!”
“It can change!” Whitney yelled back. “We can’t take that risk again!”
“Like hell we can’t.”
Seb put his hand on the front door, but Whitney tackled him. The crowbar fell to the floor as Helen rushed forward to help.
“Listen!” Whitney yelled. “Just listen!”
A rumble, like a great whale passing in the distance. It was right there; on the other side of the front door.
Without a word, they all stood up and backed away. The door shook from the passing force. Something was definitely there.
“Then… then the rest should be fine,” said Seb. “We can get to the study.”
Whitney nodded, and the two of them burst into a sprint. Helen wasn’t convinced, but didn’t know what to say. Whitney dropped her crowbar, and as she bent to pick it up, Seb opened the door to the study.
Darkness.
“…no.”
Panic exploded. Helen grabbed his arms, trying to pull him out. Whitney crawled backwards, closing her eyes and covering her ears. I couldn’t watch. All I heard was Helen, screaming his name, over and over. There was a gargle. A scream turning into an inhuman screech, like a burning pig.
“Sebastian!” Helen kept repeating. “Sebastian! Sebastian!”
There was a click, and then nothing but crying. I looked up to see Helen collapsed against the study door. It had slid shut from the pressure on the other side.
“I’m… I’m coming, Sebby,” she cried. “I’m… I’m-“
She opened the door again.
And there was the study, just as we’d left it.
Helen collapsed on the floor, curling up into a fetal position. She kept making this child-like yowling, scratching the surface of the hardwood floor, as if trying to dig Seb back into reality. But there was nothing left. Not even water droplets on the floor.
Then there were her arms. She’d held on until the door had slammed shut. Her sleeves were torn, and her arms bloody. Not much, but there were these round little suction marks. They were already bruising, with spots of blood poking through the skin.
I sat by Helen as Whitney started rifling through the study. There were more notebooks, more theories, more diaries. Notes about experiments, clever tricks, and attempts. So far, every idea to understand the rules were in vain. We couldn’t make sure. No matter what, we could never be truly sure.
Two open doors. Four closed.
I don’t know how many hours passed. I managed to get Helen to the couch, but she was inconsolable. She could barely comprehend words anymore. She didn’t blink, and she could barely breathe. There were no coherent thoughts in her mind, just… darkness. This awful, soul-sinking darkness.
Whitney propped up the open doors with books and towels, to make sure they wouldn’t accidentally close. All the while, she kept trying to convince herself.
“We keep opening them one by one,” she said. “If we can get it to manifest in one single place, and keep that door open, we should be able to leave by another.”
The sun had started to set outside. For all intents and purposes, this still just looked like a house. The windows were clear, showing the greenery outside. Maybe it was all a lie. Maybe none of it was really happening.
But looking down at Helen, and her unblinking eyes, I knew it was the realest thing I’d ever experienced.
“We… there’s three of us,” I said. “Four doors. We can’t make it.”
“No, that’s perfect,” nodded Whitney. “That’s… we open all but the front door. It manifests. Then we can get out through the one safe remaining door.”
“Unless we all die. There’s nothing that says it can only be in one place.”
“It is implied,” said Whitney. “If you got a better plan, just tell me. But unless you want to starve to death, we gotta-“
“Starve?” I interrupted. “Is that what…”
I looked back at the study, where Whitney said her father had died. No words were necessary. She took a deep breath and nodded.
“He couldn’t bring himself to try,” she said. “So we have to ask ourselves what we want. A long but certain death, or a violent risk at life?”
The fridge, the freezer, and all the cupboards had been cleared out. Whitney found some raisins for us to share while we pondered what to do. Helen couldn’t eat. She stared blankly ahead, waiting for her mind to come wandering back.
It was dark outside. Whitney rolled the bronze key between her fingers.
“I wonder how he did it,” she sighed. “He never made any sense to me.”
“Maybe it doesn’t make sense,” I shrugged. “At least not to us.”
“Then what made him so special?”
“Well, he did have a lot of books,” I said, reaching into a pile we’d gathered from the study. “Just look at some of these.”
“Astrology of Abraham, Channels of Esoteric Geometry…”
“I like this one,” I said, holding up a little red book. “Diary of Emmett Rask.”
“Right. But it doesn’t beat the…”
Whitney pulled out another book from the pile, turning it over.
“… the thirteen faiths of the blameless mother.”
I shook my head, looking over at Helen. A handful of raisins slipped between her fingers. She didn’t even bother closing her hand.
Looking back at Whitney, I sighed.
“You’re right,” I said. “We have to try.”
So we did.
We lined ourselves up on the top floor. Helen on the far right, near the bathroom. I was on the far left, by the guest room. Whitney was in the middle, by the bedroom. Helen didn’t understand. She just mimicked us.
“We’re gonna open on three,” said Whitney. “And no matter what we see, just run. Run downstairs, and just… go. Get out.”
I nodded. Helen didn’t.
“One.”
I tightened my grip. I saw Helen follow my lead, giving me an exhausted look. She could barely keep her eyes open.
“Two.”
I started doubting which way to turn the doorknob. I’d turned a million doorknobs throughout my life, but that was the first time I’d really thought about which way to turn it. I imagined myself hearing water. Bubbles. Distant rumbles. I tried telling myself that it was all imagined. Fake. Tricks of the mind.
But in my heart of hearts, I knew it wasn’t.
“Three.”
We opened our doors.
All I saw was a well-made bed. A bag of toiletries; probably Whitney’s. I left the door open and turned around.
Helen was smiling as the darkness welcomed her.
“Come on!” Whitney screamed. “Leave her!”
The door to the bedroom was open. Clear. But I was standing just ten feet away from an endless abyss. Helen looked at it, as if searching for something. She touched the surface with an outstretched hand.
“Seb, honey,” she cried. “Sebby, please.”
A pulse shot through her. I could see the hair on her arm stand up. Her veins turning black.
“Oh, Sebby…”
In an instant, her flesh unraveled as it flayed itself from the inside out. Her scream stifled as something pulled her in, leaving splotches of blood behind from the outline of her feet. A pained moan escaped her; only to be turned to harmless bubbles in the pressurized void.
Whitney grabbed me by the neck and pulled me downstairs. We ran to the front door. We looked back a final time, just to make sure it was still manifested upstairs.
It was still there. We’d sacrificed Helen, but we’d make it out.
Whitney pulled the front door open – and stopped.
Darkness.
We’d been wrong.
Whitney turned to run as an impossibly long arm grabbed the flesh of her back; straight through her clothes. It pulled her back.
I crawled away, not being able to close my eyes.
“Help me!” she cried out. “For God’s sake fucking help me!”
I shook my head, not knowing what to do. I’ll never forget those desperate eyes. The betrayal. The pleading. She fought every inch of the way. She dug her nails into the hardwood floor. She kicked. She pulled. She screamed. But for every second she stayed, the more painful it was.
With a final snap, the fingers dug into her spine; folding her like a lawn chair.
A lifeless body, dragged across the floor. Unceremoniously pulled into the dark with a quiet squelch.
And the door, slightly damaged by Seb and his crowbar, slid shut.
I was all alone.
The door to the guest bedroom and the main bedroom remained open. There was the bathroom and study downstairs. Just two closed doors left; the bathroom and the front door. Both closed. Both… wrong.
There was no right answer.
I must’ve stayed there for days. I found some trail mix in Whitney’s bag. I had water. I could shower. I had a change of clothes. I scoured the notebooks over and over and over, trying to find the slightest hint on what to do. There had to be some way of knowing for sure. There had to be.
It wasn’t until I came across a final note that I realized it was over. It read;
“By will alone, we cannot make ourselves right. Right is right, independently of our actions and intentions. We cannot control that which never was, and we cannot be part of that which will never be. There could be no more perils for me to face, and yet, I cannot bring myself to leave. There is no certainty in the unknown, and I choose not to live by chance alone.”
I cried myself to sleep at night. I banged on the walls. I even tried opening a window, only to have my left eardrum blown out from the pressure drop. Got a nasty nosebleed as well.
I tried reading. I tried making up little worlds in my head. I imagined myself safe and sound.
But it was useless. In those final hours of desperate loneliness, I knew I couldn’t fool myself any longer.
I was going to die.
I found myself with my hand on the front door. I learned every crease of the wood. The temperature of the metal handle. I listened to it. Studied it. At times, it was quiet. At other times, it wasn’t. Sometimes I imagined it quiet, other times, I imagined voices coming from the other side.
Maybe I wasn’t imagining it.
Finally, I grasped the bronze key. Starving, exhausted, and mentally broken – I opened the front door.
Sunshine.
And there, on the fresh-cut lawn, was another realtor.
Just as confused as I was.
So, turns out I was only in there for about 16 hours total. And to this day, no one seems to remember neither Anders, Seb, Helen, or Whitney. According to every document I can find, the owner of the house had no children. The cars parked outside were unregistered. On paper, it seemed like the entire world had forgotten that these people were ever part of this plane of existence.
I don’t think anyone’s lying here. There was a sincere disbelief and confusion to every piece of my story. To onlookers, I seemed like a squatter that’d gone insane.
I’ve tried to find anything about this. They won’t let me go back to read the notes. The investment firm who owns the real estate company swept it all under a rug and tore the place down. I suspect they were the ones who made the bronze key mysteriously disappear from the evidence room.
I’ve tried to find copies of the books I found in there. Some of them have been seen in passing on strange message boards, and one just keeps making my computer turn off whenever I try to google it. Who the hell is Emmett Rask anyway?
If anyone knew these people, or have heard about this phenomenon, please… I need to know I’m sane. I need to know this isn’t all a dream. I need to know I won’t wake up with my hand on that front door, having imagined living a life back outside.
This has to be real. I am real. There is nothing on the other side of the door.
Go ahead, listen. There’s nothing there.
It can’t be.
Can it?
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2023.06.03 02:57 Rollingsound514 The Move is Awesome!
I had Apple HomePods minis, and they were just god awful in terms of user experience so dumped them and bought the Sonos Move on sale today with a plan of just lugging it around the house for wherever I want music and so far I’m very very impressed.
The true play tuning, the battery life and sq are all top notch especially considering the package size.
Do not buy homepods lol, buy this or some other sonos product that's actually properly sorted!
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2023.06.03 02:57 JoeG1903 1000 more for the title 😤
2023.06.03 02:56 Apprehensive-Spot276 Landon and Julie’s House
I found Landon and Julie’s house on Zillow and they are asking $514,895 for it! Pretty crazy for a 4 bedroom home! Says they are accepting backup offers on their home.
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2023.06.03 02:42 Dangerous-Ad3495 50 living with a parent & older brother+
I turn 50 in August.
I’m 2 months into a new job (being trained to take over a small nonprofit). I took this job after having yet another challenging 2 years entering severe peri & having to leave my job of 8 years I planned to retire from. I was surprisingly offered a job that almost doubled my salary but was a clusterf*** & I had to quit to maintain my mental health. I was unemployed 6 months & had to sell my house (broke even). I am paying off debt incurred from the transition into and out of the last job.
I make $70,000. Due to paying off the debt plus paying for a certification I am taking to plan to start a business (or, get into a fully remote job least stressing), my monthly budget is tight.
I am grateful: my dad (81, retired, $2200 monthly income) insists on paying my car note & insurance.
My mom (parents are divorced, have been for decades & are tolerant of each other) houses me & my older brother (57, makes $100,000, is in debt due to a series of bad tax decisions after his divorce 21 years ago & short sale on their home but he still wants to get back together with his ex) has been living with my mom the past 3 years.
I’m trying very hard to focus on myself. I’m financial power of attorney and health power of attorney for my dad - who does not get along with anyone in our entire family.
My mom is the kind of person whom everyone loves but she is very negative, suffocating to me and my brother. My brother is a perfect combo of both parents: he is loved by everyone but I cannot trust him.
There’s so much more but I’m trying to keep on point. When my parents each pass, I will be the one looked to to manage all the hard details (I know this from an 2013 health emergency with my mom). My brother simply lives his life first and all his considerations for those he lives with are his lowest priority.
Everyone except me is in chronic illness. I am constantly put down by them when I try to start a routine. I don’t see getting out of this anytime soon.
I have never been married & do not have kids. My brother has 2 sons (22 of ex wife,19 of ex-GF). He’s out right now having a fun night somewhere.
I feel like a spinster. I feel like a loser. I feel like I will never be my own person - and if I am - I will not have anything or anyone.
I have one friend of 30 years. She’s married with a 15 year old & I haven’t been there in her life for real but she continues to reach out & try to keep up our friendship.
Again, I am grateful for what I do have. But I have many times like now each day where I feel like this. Every night, I take a CBD/THC gummy and go to bed - just to keep the despair from taking hold.
I’ve had 6 therapists since 1998 & am giving up on therapy. I don’t know how to feel better about my life. Hopefully someone in our community has some good advice I can hold on to and build from.
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2023.06.03 02:42 InstructionOk691 Sale of home equity is down payment - how do I line this up?
I want to list my house for sale and purchase a larger home. The equity from the sale is my down payment for my next home. We are a family of 4 so we need to time this perfectly as we won’t have a place to stay after our house closes. Do I make sure the closing on my new home is the same and the closing on the sale of my current home?
Do you all recommend I have the sale of my house firmed before I even start looking so I know exactly what my down payment will be? Any advice is appreciated in regards to this whole process.
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2023.06.03 02:32 Creative_Strawberry6 Status of Recreational Marijuana Sales and Cultivation by State (June 1st, 2023)
2023.06.03 02:27 AutoModerator Copy Paste Agency by Iman Gadzhi (Here)
If you are interested in Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste Agency contact us at +44 759 388 2116 on Telegram/Whatsapp.
I have Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste Agency.
Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste agency is the latest course by Iman Gadzhi.
Copy Paste Agency is designed for established agency owners, who can use these lessons to scale their business.
In Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste Agency, you will learn:
- How to continue to run a multiple-six-figure agency from home with a skeleton staff and minimal expenses
- How to command higher retainers… and retain those clients for longer
- How to automate, delegate, and optimize every area of your agency from lead generation and sales to service delivery and client communication
To get Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste Agency contact us on:
Whatsapp/Telegram: +44 759 388 2116 (Telegram: multistorecourses) Reddit DM to u/RequestCourseAccess Email: silverlakestore[@]yandex.com (remove the brackets) submitted by
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2023.06.03 02:25 OptionsProrealestate [Hiring] REMOTE Sales Representatives Needed to Connect Homeowners with Investors for Home Option Sales
Are you a motivated sales professional looking for a remote opportunity to help homeowners gain liquidity from their property while securing a sale that could potentially unlock a greater value of their property? We are seeking experienced sales representatives to join our team and connect homeowners with potential investors for home option sales.
Here's how it works: homeowners who are interested in gaining liquidity from their property while securing a future sale of their home that could potentially unlock a greater value of their home can sell a home option, which allows a potential investor to purchase the property at a predetermined price in the future.
As a sales representative, you will be responsible for identifying and connecting homeowners with potential investors and facilitating the sale of the option. You will receive a commission on each sale.
If you have a proven track record in sales and are excited about the prospect of helping homeowners achieve their financial goals, we want to hear from you! This is a great opportunity to work remotely and join our team of dedicated sales professionals.
We take transparency and legitimacy very seriously, and we work diligently to ensure that all offers and agreements are legitimate and transparent. We want both the homeowner and the buyer to fully understand the risks and benefits involved in a home option sale.
If you are interested in this opportunity, apply now and become a part of our team of sales representatives helping to connect homeowners with potential investors for home option sales. If you have any questions or concerns, feel free to ask in the comments below and we will be happy to provide answers.
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2023.06.03 02:09 stunt808 Are type beats hurting your brand?
I've been using fl studio for over 20 years and let me tell you, there is no real method on making the beats you want. You can try to imitate the hottest artist out but by the time you get good at their sound it's played out.
Let's say you want to make a Chief Keef type beat. For example lots of people will try to make all their beats sound like Chief Keefs old hits. When these big artist look for beats they not looking for stuff that sounds like their old music. They want a sound that has not been heard before. It can resemble old stuff but it has to have a newness about it.
That's why I say you don't need to try to sound exactly like another producer. It might be good for a few sales but it could hurt your brand in the long run.
So I say that to say this. Have fun with your music. Don't be scared to put out beats that you think sound too eclectic. Don't be scared to put the hooks in the wrong place because you just might find the artist who can make it work thus creating a new sound.
Metro boomin was scared to send the Karate Chop beat to future because he didn't like it. But future knew what to do on it. Lots of ppl look for ideas but there's really endless ways to get the sound you're trying to make if you focus on making up your own techniques.
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2023.06.03 02:06 Kephrem1 New construction (ADU) in CA/LA area voltage/panel question?
My question is what panel/voltage should I go with for a 850 sqft ADU unit in LA.
I am building an ADU unit at the back of my property in LA. The unit will have the usual appliances from HVAC system, stove water heater (gas) etc. When speaking with an electrician and my contractor they were throwing numbers around 150, 110 & 220 which was confusing me since it all seems arbitrary way of coming up with the voltage & what size panel that should be installed. With no true knowledge on this subject my immediate reaction is to go with higher vs. lower in case there is more voltage that might be needed in the future for the unit.
Can you help me learn more on this subject and recommend what should I go with for this new construction & possible pitfalls of choosing one over the other. List of few questions that I came up with below,
- Why/how can you just randomly choose any voltage one would like as people were throwing out 110, 150, 240?
- Is there an intelligent way of choosing various levels of voltage for the back unit?
- Given CA is pushing for all vehicles sales to be electrical by 2025 (I think) does it make sense to go with 220 in case the tenants who rent the house out have an electrical car that needs charging at home? Could this be done at lower voltage as well?
Please help me learn a bit more so I can be smart in making a decision and backing it up with facts that make sense. If there are any additional things that I should consider but I didnt ask please feel free to share you knowledge as I dont know what I dont know.
Thank you for everyone's input!
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2023.06.03 02:06 Scared-Tea-8911 ISO book or Bible study recommendations!
Hi all! I’m a fairly well-informed lay-member. I went to Lutheran school as a child, attend a very solid LCMS church weekly (or almost-weekly, life happens), have read or at least perused a majority of our doctrine, and have read the Bible several times using the ESV study Bible for additional context. I feel like I have a pretty solid understanding of LCMS principles and theology.
My question is… what is the next step? As a woman, church leadership (elder or church council) or leading/forming my own bible study is not exactly open to me… and our LWML is quite shallow in terms of theological discussions (Lots of happy-flappy “women’s bible studies”, majority focus on fundraising and bake sales - which are great fellowship, but not exactly “spiritually nourishing” at this point). Pastor includes some really interesting tidbits in his Sunday sermons… but I would like something for some additional structured development/study that I can do from home!
Are there some more intensive bible studies available via CPH or similar? Is there a syllabus from a deaconess course that I can access for self-study? What do pastors, DCE’s, or deaconesses use for continuous development? I want to continue growing in my faith, I’m just not sure where to go from here!
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2023.06.03 02:05 AutoModerator Iman Gadzhi - Copy Paste Agency (Here)
If you are interested in Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste Agency contact us at +44 759 388 2116 on Telegram/Whatsapp.
I have Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste Agency.
Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste agency is the latest course by Iman Gadzhi.
Copy Paste Agency is designed for established agency owners, who can use these lessons to scale their business.
In Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste Agency, you will learn:
- How to continue to run a multiple-six-figure agency from home with a skeleton staff and minimal expenses
- How to command higher retainers… and retain those clients for longer
- How to automate, delegate, and optimize every area of your agency from lead generation and sales to service delivery and client communication
To get Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste Agency contact us on:
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2023.06.03 02:05 AutoModerator Iman Gadzhi - Copy Paste Agency (The Course)
If you are interested in Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste Agency contact us at +44 759 388 2116 on Telegram/Whatsapp.
I have Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste Agency.
Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste agency is the latest course by Iman Gadzhi.
Copy Paste Agency is designed for established agency owners, who can use these lessons to scale their business.
In Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste Agency, you will learn:
- How to continue to run a multiple-six-figure agency from home with a skeleton staff and minimal expenses
- How to command higher retainers… and retain those clients for longer
- How to automate, delegate, and optimize every area of your agency from lead generation and sales to service delivery and client communication
To get Iman Gadzhi – Copy Paste Agency contact us on:
Whatsapp/Telegram: +44 759 388 2116 (Telegram: multistorecourses) Reddit DM to u/RequestCourseAccess Email: silverlakestore[@]yandex.com (remove the brackets) submitted by
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2023.06.03 02:04 KizerUwU Selling this dokkan, not trying to get scammed like the other bozo so not going first💀💀
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2023.06.03 01:56 Dismal-Jellyfish ‘Shadow Banks’ Account for Half of the World’s Assets—and Pose Growing Risks: 'no one seems to have a firm handle on the risks that nonbank financial entities could pose if numerous trades and investments sour.'
| Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/shadow-banks-account-for-half-of-the-worlds-assetsand-pose-growing-risks-8f4b5961 The sudden failure this year of three sizable American banks demonstrated one way in which the financial system can “break” as the Federal Reserve and other central banks press a campaign to normalize interest rates. There could be others. Risk-minded regulators, policy makers, and investors are eyeing the huge but nebulous world of largely unregulated nonbank financial intermediaries, known colloquially as shadow banks, as a potential locus of future problems. It includes sovereign-wealth funds, insurers, pension funds, hedge funds, financial-technology firms, financial clearing houses, mutual funds, and fast-growing entities such as money-market funds and private credit funds. https://preview.redd.it/cgymd43tvo3b1.png?width=1050&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcacf11db745f213831425f72b9c0030210d287f The nonbank financial system now controls $239 trillion, or almost half of the world’s financial assets, according to the Financial Stability Board. That’s up from 42% in 2008, and has doubled since the 2008-09 financial crisis. Postcrisis regulations helped shore up the nation’s biggest banks, but the restrictions that were imposed, coupled with years of ultralow interest rates, fueled the explosive growth of nonbank finance. https://preview.redd.it/47cnlnpewo3b1.png?width=1030&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fc71b7cf09f7ba1523db038e13efd6354640deb To be sure, these financial intermediaries play an important role in the economy, lending to many businesses too small or indebted to tap institutional markets. Moreover, while talk is rife on Wall Street about problems brewing in shadow banking, few have surfaced since the Fed began tightening monetary policy in the first quarter of 2022. To the contrary, disruptions caused by rising interest rates have been most evident so far in the regulated banking sector. And any turmoil in the nonbank arena could prove relatively benign, especially if the economy avoids a severe recession. Yet, no one seems to have a firm handle on the risks that nonbank financial entities could pose if numerous trades and investments sour. Nor is there a detailed understanding of the connections among nonbank entities, or their links to the regulated banking system. To date, this system hasn’t been tested, at this scale, for a wave of credit losses and defaults that could stem from higher rates and a weakening economy. History suggests caution: Shadow banking was at the epicenter of the financial crisis, as nontraditional financial institutions turned subprime mortgages into complex securities sold to banks and investors, often using high levels of leverage. As homeowners defaulted, these products lost value, and the damage cascaded through the financial system. While nonbank finance looks a lot different today, as do the potential risks, it remains a source of concern. Some policy makers and bankers use the shadow-bank moniker to refer to that segment of the nonbank universe considered most likely to trigger the sorts of liquidity-draining events that sparked prior financial contagion. The Institute of International Finance ballparks such exposure at about 14% of nonbank financial assets. But the links remain cloudy between the riskier elements of shadow banking, a term that rankles many nonbank entities, and the more resilient world of market-based finance. “The enormous size and high leverage levels of the nonbank financial-institutions sector, along with the more lax reporting and regulatory standards applied to this sector relative to banks make it a potential tinderbox,” says Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University and a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, who formerly worked at the International Monetary Fund. Worried economists and financial analysts have been urging regulators to gain a better understanding of nonbank financial intermediaries because they see telltale signs of potential trouble, including illiquid assets, increasing leverage, lack of transparency, and rapid growth. The nonbank universe is “everyone’s obvious candidate” for more breaks, says Simon Johnson, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a former director of research at the IMF, who has spent much of his career working to prevent economic crises. There are no direct parallels to the asset mismatches and bank runs that took down Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank earlier this year. In part, that’s because the pension funds, insurers, and endowments of the nonbank world tend to hold assets for decades through funds that lock up their money for five to seven years. Also, big players such as private credit funds tend to use far less leverage than banks. Still, there are indications that inflation and the sharp rise in rates may be causing strains in some parts of the nonbank system. High interest rates have sapped demand for new mortgages, for instance, hurting nonbank lenders. Liquidity in parts of the bond market, such as emerging market debt and high-yield, is at the lowest levels since the Covid pandemic. And cash flow at some companies financed by private credit is shrinking due to inflation, a slowing economy, and higher debt payments. One thing is clear: What happens in one corner of this sprawling world doesn’t stay there. Consider the collapse of the hedge fund Archegos Capital Management in 2021. Its losses on concentrated bets on blue-chip stocks triggered a margin call that led to the sale of about $20 billion of assets. That left big banks exposed to the fund, including Nomura and UBS, with billions of dollars in losses. “Risks came back to banks’ balance sheets from the back door,” says Fabio Massimo Natalucci, deputy director of monetary and capital markets development at the International Monetary Fund and co-author of its global financial-stability report. Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman said in a speech this spring that losses related to riskier activities pushed out of the banking system could come back to haunt banks through activities such as the banks’ extension of credit to nonbank lenders. According to the Fed, bank lending to nonbank financial intermediaries totaled $2 trillion in commitments at the end of 2022, a level the Fed described as high. https://preview.redd.it/vxfirsbuwo3b1.png?width=1042&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7e6505de660463394cd513dd7dce78326151fdb While many nonbank entities are regulated in some way, no regulator has attempted to assess the overall financial stability of the nonbank world. The Financial Stability Oversight Council, or FSOC, is now seeking comments on designating some nonbank institutions as systemic and subjecting some to Federal Reserve supervision. That would reverse some of the changes made during the last administration. A look at three types of nonbank financial intermediaries—private-credit providers, open-end bond funds, and nonbank mortgage lenders—offers a window into the prevailing concerns about shadow banking, and suggests how conditions could unravel in this sector in ways that roil the economy and the markets. Private Credit Rapid growth in the world of finance tends to draw attention, and few business segments have grown since the financial crisis as much as private credit. Private-credit providers typically lend directly to midsize, privately owned businesses that generate from $10 million to $1 billion of revenue and can’t get funding in the institutional market. https://preview.redd.it/ywxrglx0xo3b1.png?width=1031&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f37c7b40949d458cabeb5beab46227134bea781 As banks retreated after the crisis and each minicrisis that followed, these financial intermediaries stepped in. Private-credit assets have mushroomed to nearly $1.5 trillion from $230 billion in 2008**,** putting the private-credit market in the league of the leveraged-loan and high-yield markets. Drawn by high yields, attractive returns, and diversification opportunities, investors have poured money into private-credit funds. Insurers have doubled their allocation to these pools of largely illiquid assets over the past decade, while pension funds have more than doubled their allocation to alternative investments, including private credit, since 2006. The Fed said in its financial stability report, published in May, that the risk to financial stability from private-credit funds appears limited. It noted that the funds don’t use much leverage, are held by institutional investors, and have long lockup periods, limiting the risk of runs. But the Fed also acknowledged that it had little visibility into loan portfolios, including the traits of borrowers, the nature of deal terms, and default risks. Some observers are concerned about the connections between private lending and other nonbank activities, as well as lenders’ links to the banking sector. “Wall Street says they aren’t going to lend to subprime borrowers, but they lend to funds that lend to them,” says Ana Arsov, who oversees private-credit research at Moody’s. There is no public view of banks’ total exposure to private credit, Arsov says. Given the scale of the business and limited visibility into the risks, analysts worry that any widespread deterioration of asset quality could ripple through other parts of the financial world before regulators could act. Business development companies, some of which are publicly traded, offer some insight through disclosure documents into this $250 billion market. “Most managers that have both BDCs and institutional structures share deals across their platform, providing insight into the types of credits in their portfolios,” says Dwight Scott, global head of Blackstone Credit. Moody’s sees increasing challenges for some BDCs over the next 12 to 18 months as the economy slows and companies grapple with higher borrowing costs, inflation, and market volatility. Although liquidity looks adequate for the next 12 months, loan maturities for portfolio companies will accelerate after that. If rates are still high and the economy is slumping, that could hamper the prospects for further borrowing. Similarly, lenders could become more conservative. Blackstone Private Credit fund, or BCRED, the biggest private-credit fund, said late last year that it had hit its 5% quarterly investor-redemption limit. While Blackstone had no trouble meeting redemptions, and has reported that redemption requests fell in this year’s first quarter, Arsov worries about how smaller players would handle a similar situation. The industry’s efforts to court retail investors, she says, could increase the possibility that risks in private credit seep into broader financial markets, potentially by creating confidence issues. What could trigger problems in the broader private-credit universe? One concern is a potential wave of struggling borrowers larger than the anticipated 5% to 6%. Arsov says expectations may be too rosy, based on the low default rate during the pandemic, when the Fed stepped in with trillions of dollars in stimulus. With the Fed now raising rates to curb inflation and trimming its balance sheet, such assistance is unlikely to be repeated. Leverage metrics also have deteriorated, and covenant protections have weakened as the growth in private credit has increased competition for deals. Many have been concentrated in software, business services, and healthcare, in companies backed by private-equity funds. Given the benign interest-rate and economic backdrop of recent years, many private-equity investors were willing to pay higher multiples of enterprise value for companies with sustainable revenue, which allowed them to take on more leverage, says Richard Miller, head of private credit at TCW. “Our markets stopped focusing on debt to Ebitda [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization], the longstanding gauge of risk, and looked at loan to value,” Miller says. “That was fine as long as enterprise values didn’t contract and the [interest] rate on that elevated debt didn’t go up. We have had a change in both.” Now, some of these companies are generating less cash flow, which affects their ability to cover interest payments. While leverage isn’t as high as during the financial crisis, limiting potential systemic risk, Miller sees the risks today transferred to the individual borrower, and worries about the prospect of some borrowers running out of money. A shift in the market might weed out weaker private-credit upstarts. But a potential combination of rising defaults, elevated interest rates, and flagging investor appetite for private credit could exacerbate a downturn, albeit in slow motion, given the nature of borrowing. Not surprisingly, industry leaders are more upbeat. “People conflate default with losses,” says Blackstone’s Scott. But much of direct lending involves senior secured debt, he notes, which should minimize actual losses and enable lenders to help businesses through the challenges. “Rather than increasing risk to the markets, private-credit asset managers are typically a stabilizing force, given the ability to invest patiently and opportunistically, and with little to no use of leverage, when banks and other traditional market participants either can’t or won’t,” says Michael Arougheti, chief executive of Ares Management, one of the largest alternative-asset managers. https://preview.redd.it/8kxrl8eexo3b1.png?width=396&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0fc605506d01955897874827fecff078f2e73ba Bond Funds Unlike private-credit funds, which lock up investors’ money for a set period, most mutual funds allow investors to buy and sell whenever they want, offering daily liquidity. But that could turn problematic for bond funds under certain conditions, as some corporate bonds change hands only once a month—and less frequently in times of stress. If credit losses pile up or markets become stressed, some policy makers fear that bond funds could face demands to liquidate holdings at fire-sale prices, as investors scramble to sell funds with assets that have become illiquid. Liquidity in bond markets dried up in the early days of the pandemic as investors scrambled for cash and some bond funds sold assets to meet redemptions. That set off a further frenzy as investors tried to unload assets before they became more illiquid. The selling pressure eventually forced the Fed to intervene and offer to buy corporate bonds for the first time ever to keep credit flowing. Hoping to minimize the damage from another fire sale, policy makers are looking to develop new rules, including on fund pricing. The Investment Company Institute, which represents the mutual fund industry, has pushed back against this effort, arguing it is based on an incorrect view of the role that bond funds played in 2020. Citing its own research, the ICI says bond sales didn’t spark the Treasury market dysfunction that disrupted the flow of credit, but started only after markets began seizing up and, at that, represented a fraction of the selling. The ICI notes that concerns about fire sales during periods of market stress aren’t unique to the mutual fund structure. Bond funds have seen net inflows of $1.74 trillion since 2013. Global fixed-income funds, a subset of the sector, have crowded into some of the same corners of the market in the past two years. The IMF has raised alarms about that, citing fears of a stampede out of certain assets if a single fund runs into trouble. https://preview.redd.it/4dj15yznxo3b1.png?width=1017&format=png&auto=webp&s=14d2e757c94a8a0d3a63cc276dff2b214821e715 Bid/ask spreads, a common gauge of a market’s liquidity, have widened in areas such as high-yield and emerging market debt to levels last seen in the spring of 2020, according to the IMF. Mara Dobrescu, director of fixed-income strategies for Morningstar’s manager-research group, also sees increasing vulnerabilities, but notes that most funds are equipped to handle stresses and that not many bond funds have had to institute limits on redemptions. Warning SignThe liquidity risk in high-yield bond funds increased in 2022 as bid-ask spreads widened.Portfolio-level bid-ask spread across fundsSource: International Monetary Fund https://preview.redd.it/kxm1xjgrxo3b1.png?width=1016&format=png&auto=webp&s=eea6c6ccea84a93126edda215efa99bb98300c2e Nonbank Mortgage Lenders The mortgage market has seen dramatic changes in the years since the global financial crisis. The business of originating and servicing loans has migrated steadily away from banks, with nonbank lenders accounting for more than two-thirds of all originations. Rocket Cos. ’ [ticker: RKT] Rocket Mortgage unit and UWM Holdings ’ [UWMC] United Wholesale Mortgage top the list of the biggest lenders. Neither company responded to Barron’s requests for comment. Housing finance is raising flags again, not so much for risky lending practices as in 2008, but because of the business models of these nonbank lenders, which don’t have to hold as much capital as banks. With people buying fewer houses, mortgage originations are down 60% in the past two years, raising concerns that potential losses will eat into these businesses’ slim capital cushion and raise leverage levels. https://preview.redd.it/5p3dewayxo3b1.png?width=1051&format=png&auto=webp&s=b398b224d9378bc4159a61405d55fd616238b93d Nancy Wallace, a finance and real estate professor at the University of California, Berkeley Haas School of Business, has been warning for years about these nonbank lenders’ business model. She fears that a rise in defaults could lead to disruptions in the mortgage and housing markets. One concern is the companies’ reliance on short-term funding through warehouse lines of credit from banks. Those presumably could be pulled during periods of market stress, or if the borrowers’ financial health were to deteriorate. In this year’s first quarter, delinquency rates were only 3.6%, the lowest level for any first quarter since the Mortgage Bankers Association started tracking them in 1979. A sharp rise in delinquencies, however, could bring added pain, as the companies’ servicing businesses, which collect monthly payments from borrowers and funnel them to investors including banks, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, would need to advance the money. On its own, analysts don’t see the nonbank mortgage-lending industry triggering a financial crisis, although distress throughout the industry could diminish confidence in other nonbank lenders. In a worst-case scenario, credit could dry up for riskier borrowers, hitting home prices and sapping mortgage demand. Peter Mills, senior vice president of residential policy for the Mortgage Bankers Association, has pushed back on recent regulatory efforts aimed at designating nonbank lenders as systemic, noting that the framework under consideration doesn’t include a cost/benefit analysis or an assessment of the probability that an entity could default. Plus, he doesn’t see a financial-transmission risk from the industry, which is working on tools to mitigate strains in the event of delinquencies. “It’s less a financial earthquake and more of an operational challenge,” he says. That may prove to be the case throughout the nonbank financial sector as interest rates normalize and the era of free money ends. Plenty of things might bend without breaking in this vast and opaque world. Just the same, it pays to be vigilant. TLDRS: Shorter Version: - The nonbank financial intermediaries, or "shadow banks," controlling almost half of the world’s financial assets, are being watched closely as central banks work towards normalizing interest rates.
- Though few problems have been noted since the Fed's monetary policy tightening in 2022, there are concerns about the risk these nonbank entities could pose if numerous investments fail, especially given the lack of understanding about their interconnections.
- Rising interest rates and inflation may be causing strain in the nonbank system, with decreased demand for new mortgages and reduced liquidity in some bond markets.
- The collapse of Archegos Capital Management in 2021 highlighted the risk of problems in one area of the nonbank system impacting others, prompting calls for regulators to improve understanding of nonbank financial intermediaries.
- Despite private credit growth, concerns persist due to limited visibility into these funds' loan portfolios and connections between private lending and other nonbank activities, as well as links to the banking sector.
- Bond funds, with their daily liquidity, could face challenges in times of stress when certain corporate bonds are infrequently traded, potentially leading to liquidation at reduced prices.
- The shift from banks to nonbank lenders in the mortgage market, combined with the latter's reliance on short-term funding from banks, has raised concerns, especially in the event of a sharp rise in delinquencies.
Longer Version: - As the Federal Reserve and other central banks work towards normalizing interest rates, the largely unregulated nonbank financial intermediaries, also known as shadow banks, are being closely watched due to their potential to cause future financial issues.
- These entities, which include everything from sovereign-wealth funds to financial-technology firms, currently control $239 trillion, almost half of the world’s financial assets, an increase from 42% in 2008.
- These intermediaries serve a crucial role in the economy, lending to businesses that are too small or too indebted to tap into institutional markets.
- Despite concerns, few issues have emerged in the shadow banking sector since the Fed began tightening monetary policy in 2022.
- However, it's unclear what risks these nonbank entities could pose if numerous investments go sour, especially considering the lack of detailed understanding about their connections among themselves and to the regulated banking system.
- The shadow banking system hasn't been tested on this scale against a potential wave of credit losses and defaults that could result from higher rates and a weakening economy.
- The sector, with its size, high leverage levels, and lax reporting and regulatory standards, could potentially become a "tinderbox" according to some economists.
- There are indications that rising interest rates and inflation may be causing some strain in the nonbank system.
- High rates have reduced demand for new mortgages, affecting nonbank lenders. Also, liquidity in some bond markets is at the lowest levels since the COVID pandemic.
- Still, there have been instances where problems in one part of the nonbank system have impacted others. The collapse of the hedge fund Archegos Capital Management in 2021, for example, resulted in significant losses for big banks exposed to the fund (and those continue as that bag is passed around...).
- Given these risks, regulators are being urged to gain a better understanding of nonbank financial intermediaries.
- Private credit has grown exponentially since the 2008 financial crisis, ballooning from $230 billion to almost $1.5 trillion.
- This sector lends directly to midsize businesses that can't obtain funding in the institutional market.
- Investors are attracted to private credit due to high yields, returns, and diversification opportunities.
- The Federal Reserve stated in a recent report that risks to financial stability from private-credit funds seem limited because these funds don't use much leverage, have long lockup periods, and are held by institutional investors.
- However, there's limited visibility into these funds' loan portfolios, including borrower characteristics, deal terms, and default risks.
- Concerns arise from connections between private lending and other nonbank activities, as well as links to the banking sector.
- The lack of public view into banks' total exposure to private credit is a cause for concern for some analysts who worry that asset quality deterioration could impact other parts of the financial world before regulators can intervene.
- A potential wave of struggling borrowers larger than the anticipated 5-6% could trigger problems in the broader private credit universe.
- Leverage metrics have also worsened, and covenant protections have weakened as competition for deals has grown.
- The market's focus has shifted from debt to EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to loan to value, which could lead to some borrowers running out of money.
- There is concern that a potential combination of rising defaults, high interest rates, and waning investor appetite for private credit could exacerbate a downturn.
- Most mutual funds offer daily liquidity, allowing investors to buy and sell whenever they wish.
- However, this could be an issue for bond funds in certain conditions, as some corporate bonds are traded only once a month and even less often during stressful times.
- If credit losses accumulate or markets become stressed, bond funds could face pressure to liquidate holdings at reduced prices as investors rush to sell funds with illiquid assets.
- Bond funds have experienced net inflows of $1.74 trillion since 2013, with global fixed-income funds investing heavily in certain market areas in the last two years.
- The IMF has expressed concerns about this, noting that if a single fund encounters issues, it could lead to a rush out of certain assets.
- Liquidity risks in high-yield bond funds have increased in 2022, with bid-ask spreads, a measure of a market’s liquidity, widening.
- Since the global financial crisis, the mortgage market has undergone significant changes, with nonbank lenders now accounting for over two-thirds of all originations.
- While the shift away from banks isn't due to risky lending as in 2008, concerns have been raised about the business models of nonbank lenders.
- These lenders don't need to hold as much capital as banks, and with a 60% decline in mortgage originations in the past two years due to decreased house purchases, potential losses could deplete their modest capital buffer and increase leverage levels.
- One concern is the nonbank lenders' reliance on short-term funding via warehouse lines of credit from banks, which could be withdrawn during market stress or if the borrowers' financial condition worsens.
- Although delinquency rates were just 3.6% in Q1 of this year, a sharp increase could cause issues, as these companies' servicing businesses would have to advance the money.
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