Growing up hip hop atlanta 2022

GrowingUpHipHop

2018.12.09 01:07 zamboroza GrowingUpHipHop

Growing Up Hip Hop follows the next generation of hip hop royalty as they attempt to step outside the shadow of their famous families
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2016.10.28 11:42 OneTouch15 Best Kept Secret Festival

The Best Kept Secret festival is a three-day music festival held in the Netherlands in a village called Hilvarenbeek on the Beekse Bergen since 2013. Best Kept Secret is a music festival with a line-up in which big names are alternated with new discoveries from indie, folk, hip-hop, rock, electronics or a mixture of styles. The festival’s centerpiece is a lake at the back of Beekse Bergen safari park.
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2012.10.06 00:40 Tebaxx where girls get left if they don't get a right

This subreddit is dedicated to New York's prodigal son, ya boy YONAS.
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2023.06.03 02:12 _Triple_ [STORE] 900+ KNIVES/GLOVES/SKINS, 50.000$+ INVENTORY. M9 Fade, M4 Poseidon, BFK Freehand, Crimson Kimono, Nomad Fade, Skeleton, Kara Lore, Bayo Autotronic, AWP Fade, Kara Damas, BFK Ultra, Kara Freehand, Kara Bright, M9 Damas, Omega, Tiger Strike, Flip MF, Bayo Tiger, Deagle Blaze, Talon & More

Everything in my inventory is up for trade. The most valuable items are listed here, the rest you can find in My Inventory

Feel free to Add Me or even better send a Trade Offer. Open for any suggestions: upgrades, downgrades / knives, gloves, skins / stickers, patterns, floats.

All Buyouts are listed in cash value.

KNIVES

★ Butterfly Knife Freehand FN #1, B/O: $2500

★ Butterfly Knife Ultraviolet FT, B/O: $822

★ Butterfly Knife Scorched FT, B/O: $616


★ Bayonet Tiger Tooth MW #1, B/O: $1300

★ Bayonet Autotronic FN, B/O: $1050

★ Bayonet Tiger Tooth MW, B/O: $629

★ Bayonet Bright Water FT, B/O: $326

★ Bayonet Safari Mesh BS, B/O: $233


★ Karambit Lore FT, B/O: $1110

★ Karambit Damascus Steel FT, B/O: $840

★ Karambit Freehand MW, B/O: $784

★ Karambit Bright Water MW, B/O: $759


★ M9 Bayonet Fade FN, B/O: $1801

★ M9 Bayonet Fade FN, B/O: $1801

★ M9 Bayonet Damascus Steel FN, B/O: $751


★ Nomad Knife Fade FN, B/O: $1156

★ Nomad Knife Slaughter MW, B/O: $544

★ Nomad Knife Blue Steel WW, B/O: $318


★ Flip Knife Marble Fade FN, B/O: $646

★ Flip Knife Doppler (Phase 4) FN, B/O: $574

★ Flip Knife Gamma Doppler (Phase 1) MW, B/O: $552

★ Flip Knife Case Hardened FT, B/O: $257

★ Flip Knife Freehand FT, B/O: $255

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife Bright Water FN, B/O: $287


★ Huntsman Knife Lore FN, B/O: $461

★ Huntsman Knife Gamma Doppler (Phase 4) FN, B/O: $436

★ Huntsman Knife Doppler (Phase 3) FN, B/O: $353

★ Huntsman Knife Autotronic FT, B/O: $212

★ Huntsman Knife Bright Water FT, B/O: $129

★ Huntsman Knife Forest DDPAT MW, B/O: $129

★ Huntsman Knife Forest DDPAT BS, B/O: $123

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife Rust Coat BS, B/O: $127


★ Bowie Knife Gamma Doppler (Phase 2) FN, B/O: $375

★ Bowie Knife Gamma Doppler (Phase 1) FN, B/O: $363

★ Bowie Knife Tiger Tooth FN, B/O: $269

★ Bowie Knife Crimson Web WW, B/O: $192

★ Bowie Knife Bright Water FN, B/O: $159

★ Bowie Knife Ultraviolet FT, B/O: $126


★ Stiletto Knife Slaughter FN, B/O: $616

★ Stiletto Knife Crimson Web FT, B/O: $412

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife Night Stripe FT, B/O: $227


★ Falchion Knife Lore FT, B/O: $214

★ Falchion Knife Autotronic FT, B/O: $192

★ Falchion Knife Scorched WW, B/O: $105


★ Survival Knife Crimson Web BS, B/O: $216

★ Survival Knife Case Hardened FT, B/O: $198

★ Survival Knife Scorched FT, B/O: $111


★ Shadow Daggers Fade FN, B/O: $368

★ Shadow Daggers Doppler (Phase 3) FN, B/O: $228

★ Shadow Daggers, B/O: $201

★ Shadow Daggers Damascus Steel FT, B/O: $108

★ Shadow Daggers Ultraviolet FT, B/O: $105

★ Shadow Daggers Black Laminate FT, B/O: $99

★ Shadow Daggers Forest DDPAT FT, B/O: $85


★ Gut Knife Doppler (Sapphire) MW #1, B/O: $1700

★ Gut Knife Gamma Doppler (Phase 1) FN, B/O: $223

★ Gut Knife Marble Fade FN, B/O: $203

★ Gut Knife Doppler (Phase 2) FN, B/O: $191

★ Gut Knife Case Hardened BS, B/O: $127


★ Navaja Knife Doppler (Phase 4) FN, B/O: $199

★ Navaja Knife Doppler (Phase 4) FN, B/O: $199

★ Navaja Knife, B/O: $138

★ Navaja Knife Damascus Steel FN, B/O: $111


★ Classic Knife Urban Masked FT, B/O: $146

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife Stained BS, B/O: $168


★ Ursus Knife Doppler (Phase 3) FN, B/O: $476

★ Ursus Knife, B/O: $375


★ Skeleton Knife, B/O: $1137

★ Talon Knife, B/O: $608

★ Paracord Knife, B/O: $305

★ Survival Knife Forest DDPAT FT, B/O: $97

GLOVES

★ Moto Gloves Transport MW, B/O: $204

★ Moto Gloves Polygon BS, B/O: $142

★ Moto Gloves Blood Pressure BS, B/O: $84

★ Moto Gloves Blood Pressure BS, B/O: $84

★ Moto Gloves 3rd Commando Company BS, B/O: $63

★ Moto Gloves 3rd Commando Company BS, B/O: $63


★ Specialist Gloves Crimson Kimono WW, B/O: $1215

★ Specialist Gloves Tiger Strike FT, B/O: $672

★ Specialist Gloves Lt. Commander FT, B/O: $305

★ Specialist Gloves Lt. Commander BS, B/O: $140

★ Specialist Gloves Crimson Web BS, B/O: $137

★ Specialist Gloves Buckshot FT, B/O: $75


★ Driver Gloves Crimson Weave FT, B/O: $359

★ Driver Gloves Imperial Plaid BS, B/O: $229

★ Driver Gloves Overtake BS, B/O: $77

★ Driver Gloves Racing Green FT, B/O: $48


★ Sport Gloves Omega FT, B/O: $739

★ Sport Gloves Amphibious BS #2, B/O: $733

★ Sport Gloves Arid BS, B/O: $292


★ Hand Wraps Giraffe MW, B/O: $212

★ Hand Wraps Leather FT, B/O: $160

★ Hand Wraps Desert Shamagh MW, B/O: $101


★ Broken Fang Gloves Yellow-banded MW, B/O: $185

★ Broken Fang Gloves Needle Point FT, B/O: $67

★ Broken Fang Gloves Needle Point WW, B/O: $59


★ Hydra Gloves Case Hardened BS, B/O: $65

★ Hydra Gloves Emerald FT, B/O: $65

★ Hydra Gloves Emerald BS, B/O: $62

WEAPONS

AK-47 Case Hardened BS, B/O: $130

AK-47 Bloodsport MW, B/O: $79

AK-47 Fuel Injector BS, B/O: $76

AK-47 Fuel Injector BS, B/O: $76

AK-47 Bloodsport FT, B/O: $70

AK-47 Neon Rider MW, B/O: $60

StatTrak™ AK-47 Aquamarine Revenge FT, B/O: $72


AWP Fade FN, B/O: $1039

AWP Asiimov FT, B/O: $139

AWP Asiimov FT, B/O: $139

AWP Wildfire MW, B/O: $95

AWP BOOM MW, B/O: $93

AWP BOOM MW, B/O: $93

AWP Duality FN, B/O: $81

AWP Asiimov BS, B/O: $79

AWP Asiimov BS, B/O: $79

AWP Chromatic Aberration FN, B/O: $60

StatTrak™ AWP Hyper Beast FT, B/O: $68

StatTrak™ AWP Hyper Beast FT, B/O: $68

StatTrak™ AWP Electric Hive FT, B/O: $55


Desert Eagle Blaze FN, B/O: $623

Desert Eagle Emerald Jörmungandr FN, B/O: $241

Desert Eagle Cobalt Disruption FN, B/O: $81

Desert Eagle Cobalt Disruption FN, B/O: $81

Desert Eagle Cobalt Disruption FN, B/O: $81

Desert Eagle Printstream FT, B/O: $54


M4A1-S Blue Phosphor FN, B/O: $434

StatTrak™ M4A1-S Bright Water MW, B/O: $55


M4A4 Poseidon FN, B/O: $1465

M4A4 Asiimov BS, B/O: $55

M4A4 Hellfire MW, B/O: $50


USP-S Kill Confirmed MW, B/O: $72

USP-S Printstream FT, B/O: $69

StatTrak™ USP-S Kill Confirmed FT, B/O: $139


AUG Flame Jörmungandr FN, B/O: $234

P90 Run and Hide FT, B/O: $147

Five-SeveN Candy Apple FN, B/O: $61

Trade Offer Link - Steam Profile Link - My Inventory

Knives - Bowie Knife, Butterfly Knife, Falchion Knife, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Huntsman Knife, M9 Bayonet, Bayonet, Karambit, Shadow Daggers, Stiletto Knife, Ursus Knife, Navaja Knife, Talon Knife, Classic Knife, Paracord Knife, Survival Knife, Nomad Knife, Skeleton Knife, Patterns - Gamma Doppler, Doppler (Phase 1, Phase 2, Phase 3, Phase 4, Black Pearl, Sapphire, Ruby, Emerald), Crimson Web, Lore, Fade, Ultraviolet, Night, Marble Fade (Fire & Ice, Fake FI), Case Hardened (Blue Gem), Autotronic, Slaughter, Black Laminate, Tiger Tooth, Boreal Forest, Scorched, Blue Steel, Vanilla, Damascus Steel, Forest DDPAT, Urban Masked, Freehand, Stained, Bright Water, Safari Mesh, Rust Coat, Gloves - Bloodhound Gloves (Charred, Snakebite, Guerrilla, Bronzed), Driver Gloves (Snow Leopard, King Snake, Crimson Weave, Imperial Plaid, Black Tie, Lunar Weave, Diamondback, Rezan the Red, Overtake, Queen Jaguar, Convoy, Racing Green), Hand Wraps (Cobalt Skulls, CAUTION!, Overprint, Slaughter, Leather, Giraffe, Badlands, Spruce DDPAT, Arboreal, Constrictor, Desert Shamagh, Duct Tape), Moto Gloves (Spearmint, POW!, Cool Mint, Smoke Out, Finish Line, Polygon, Blood Pressure, Turtle, Boom!, Eclipse, 3rd Commando Company, Transport), Specialist Gloves (Crimson Kimono, Tiger Strike, Emerald Web, Field Agent, Marble Fade, Fade, Foundation, Lt. Commander, Crimson Web, Mogul, Forest DDPAT, Buckshot), Sport Gloves (Pandora's Box, Superconductor, Hedge Maze, Vice, Amphibious, Slingshot, Omega, Arid, Big Game, Nocts, Scarlet Shamagh, Bronze Morph), Hydra Gloves (Case Hardened, Emerald, Rattler, Mangrove), Broken Fang Gloves (Jade, Yellow-banded, Unhinged, Needle Point), Pistols - P2000 (Wicked Sick, Ocean Foam, Fire Element, Amber Fade, Corticera, Chainmail, Imperial Dragon, Obsidian, Scorpion, Handgun, Acid Etched), USP-S (Printstream, Kill Confirmed, Whiteout, Road Rash, Owergrowth, The Traitor, Neo-Noir, Dark Water, Orion, Blueprint, Stainless, Caiman, Serum, Monster Mashup, Royal Blue, Ancient Visions, Cortex, Orange Anolis, Ticket To Hell, Black Lotus, Cyrex, Check Engine, Guardian, Purple DDPAT, Torque, Blood Tiger, Flashback, Business Class, Pathfinder, Para Green), Lead Conduit, Glock-18 (Umbral Rabbit, Fade, Candy Apple, Bullet Queen, Synth Leaf, Neo-Noir, Nuclear Garden, Dragon Tatto, Reactor, Pink DDPAT, Twilight Galaxy, Sand Dune, Groundwater, Blue Fissure, Snack Attack, Water Elemental, Brass, Wasteland Rebel, Vogue, Franklin, Royal Legion, Gamma Doppler, Weasel, Steel Disruption, Ironwork, Grinder, High Beam, Moonrise, Oxide Blaze, Bunsen Burner, Clear Polymer, Bunsen Burner, Night), P250 (Re.built, Nuclear Threat, Modern Hunter, Splash, Whiteout, Vino Primo, Mehndi, Asiimov, Visions, Undertow, Cartel, See Ya Later, Gunsmoke, Splash, Digital Architect, Muertos, Red Rock, Bengal Tiger, Crimson Kimono, Wingshot, Metallic DDPAT, Hive, Dark Filigree, Mint Kimono), Five-Seven (Neon Kimono, Berries And Cherries, Fall Hazard, Crimson Blossom, Hyper Beast, Nitro, Fairy Tale, Case Hardened, Copper Galaxy, Angry Mob, Monkey Business, Fowl Play, Anodized Gunmetal, Hot Shot, Retrobution, Boost Protocol), CZ75-Auto (Chalice, Crimson Web, Emerald Quartz, The Fuschia is Now, Nitro, Xiangliu, Yellow Jacket, Victoria, Poison Dart, Syndicate, Eco, Hexane, Pole, Tigris), Tec-9 (Rebel, Terrace, Nuclear Threat, Hades, Rust Leaf, Decimator, Blast From, Orange Murano, Toxic, Fuel Injector, Remote Control, Bamboo Forest, Isaac, Avalanche, Brother, Re-Entry, Blue Titanium, Bamboozle), R8 Revolver (Banana Cannon, Fade, Blaze, Crimson Web, Liama Cannon, Crazy 8, Reboot, Canal Spray, Night, Amber Fade), Desert Eagle (Blaze, Hand Cannon, Fennec Fox, Sunset Storm, Emerald Jörmungandr, Pilot, Hypnotic, Golden Koi, Printstream, Cobalt Disruption, Code Red, Ocean Drive, Midnight Storm, Kumicho Dragon, Crimson Web, Heirloom, Night Heist, Mecha Industries, Night, Conspiracy, Trigger Discipline, Naga, Directive, Light Rail), Dual Berettas (Flora Carnivora, Duelist, Cobra Strike, Black Limba, Emerald, Hemoglobin, Twin Turbo, Marina, Melondrama, Pyre, Retribution, Briar, Dezastre, Royal Consorts, Urban Shock, Dualing Dragons, Panther, Balance), Rifles - Galil (Aqua Terrace, Winter Forest, Chatterbox, Sugar Rush, Pheonix Blacklight, CAUTION!, Orange DDPAT, Cerberus, Dusk Ruins, Eco, Chromatic Aberration, Stone Cold, Tuxedo, Sandstorm, Shattered, Urban Rubble, Rocket Pop, Kami, Crimson Tsunami, Connexion), SCAR-20 (Fragments, Brass, Cyrex, Palm, Splash Jam, Cardiac, Emerald, Crimson Web, Magna Carta, Stone Mosaico, Bloodsport, Enforcer), AWP (Duality, Gungnir, Dragon Lore, Prince, Medusa, Desert Hydra, Fade, Lightning Strike, Oni Taiji, Silk Tiger, Graphite, Chromatic Aberration, Asiimov, Snake Camo, Boom, Containment Breach, Wildfire, Redline, Electric Hive, Hyper Beast, Neo-Noir, Man-o'-war, Pink DDPAT, Corticera, Sun in Leo, Elite Build, Fever Dream, Atheris, Mortis, PAW, Exoskeleton, Worm God, POP AWP, Phobos, Acheron, Pit Viper, Capillary, Safari Mesh), AK-47 (Head Shot, Wild Lotus, Gold Arabesque, X-Ray, Fire Serpent, Hydroponic, Panthera Onca, Case Hardened, Vulcan, Jet Set, Fuel Injector, Bloodsport, Nightwish, First Class, Neon Rider, Asiimov, Red Laminate, Aquamarine Revenge, The Empress, Wasteland Rebel, Jaguar, Black Laminate, Leet Museo, Neon Revolution, Redline, Frontside Misty, Predator, Legion of Anubis, Point Disarray, Orbit Mk01, Blue Laminate, Green Laminate, Emerald Pinstripe, Cartel, Phantom Disruptor, Jungle Spray, Safety Net, Rat Rod, Baroque Purple, Slate, Elite Build, Uncharted, Safari Mesh), FAMAS (Sundown, Prime Conspiracy, Afterimage, Commemoration, Dark Water, Spitfire, Pulse, Eye of Athena, Meltdown, Rapid Eye Move, Roll Cage, Styx, Mecha Industrie, Djinn, ZX Spectron, Valence, Neural Net, Night Borre, Hexne), M4A4 (Temukau, Howl, Poseidon, Asiimov, Daybreak, Hellfire, Zirka, Red DDPAT, Radiation Hazard, Modern Hunter, The Emperor, The Coalition, Bullet Rain, Cyber Security, X-Ray, Dark Blossom, Buzz Kill, In Living Color, Neo-Noir, Desolate Space, 龍王 (Dragon King), Royal Paladin, The Battlestar, Global Offensive, Tooth Fairy, Desert-Strike, Griffin, Evil Daimyo, Spider Lily, Converter), M4A1-S (Emphorosaur-S, Welcome to the Jungle, Imminent Danger, Knight, Hot Rod, Icarus Fell, Blue Phosphor, Printstream, Master Piece, Dark Water, Golden Coil, Bright Water, Player Two, Atomic Alloy, Guardian, Chantico's Fire, Hyper Beast, Mecha Industries, Cyrex, Control Panel, Moss Quartz, Nightmare, Decimator, Leaded Glass, Basilisk, Blood Tiger, Briefing, Night Terror, Nitro, VariCamo, Flashback), SG 553 (Cyberforce, Hazard Pay, Bulldozer, Integrale, Dragon Tech, Ultraviolet, Colony IV, Hypnotic, Cyrex, Candy Apple, Barricade, Pulse), SSG 08 (Death Strike, Sea Calico, Blood in the Water, Orange Filigree, Dragonfire, Big Iron, Bloodshot, Detour, Turbo Peek, Red Stone), AUG (Akihabara Accept, Flame Jörmungandr, Hot Rod, Midnight Lily, Sand Storm, Carved Jade, Wings, Anodized Navy, Death by Puppy, Torque, Bengal Tiger, Chameleon, Fleet Flock, Random Access, Momentum, Syd Mead, Stymphalian, Arctic Wolf, Aristocrat, Navy Murano), G3SG1 (Chronos, Violet Murano, Flux, Demeter, Orange Kimono, The Executioner, Green Apple, Arctic Polar Camo, Contractor), SMGs - P90 (Neoqueen, Astral Jörmungandr, Run and Hide, Emerald Dragon, Cold Blooded, Death by Kitty, Baroque Red, Vent Rush, Blind Spot, Asiimov, Trigon, Sunset Lily, Death Grip, Leather, Nostalgia, Fallout Warning, Tiger Pit, Schermatic, Virus, Shapewood, Glacier Mesh, Shallow Grave, Chopper, Desert Warfare), MAC-10 (Sakkaku, Hot Snakes, Copper Borre, Red Filigree, Gold Brick, Graven, Case Hardened, Stalker, Amber Fade, Neon Rider, Tatter, Curse, Propaganda, Nuclear Garden, Disco Tech, Toybox, Heat, Indigo), UMP-45 (Wild Child, Fade, Blaze, Day Lily, Minotaur's Labyrinth, Crime Scene, Caramel, Bone Pile, Momentum, Primal Saber), MP7 (Teal Blossom, Fade, Nemesis, Whiteout, Asterion, Bloosport, Abyssal Apparition, Full Stop, Special Delivery, Neon Ply, Asterion, Ocean Foam, Powercore, Scorched, Impire), PP-Bizon (Modern Hunter, Rust Coat, Forest Leaves, Antique, High Roller, Blue Streak, Seabird, Judgement of Anubis, Bamboo Print, Embargo, Chemical Green, Coblat Halftone, Fuel Rod, Photic Zone, Irradiated Alert, Carbon Fiber), MP9 (Featherweight, Wild Lily, Pandora's Box, Stained Glass, Bulldozer, Dark Age, Hot Rod, Hypnotic, Hydra, Rose Iron, Music Box, Setting Sun, Food Chain, Airlock, Mount Fuji, Starlight Protector, Ruby Poison Dart, Deadly Poison), MP5-SD (Liquidation, Oxide Oasis, Phosphor, Nitro, Agent, Autumn Twilly), Shotguns, Machineguns - Sawed-Off (Kiss♥Love, First Class, Orange DDPAT, Rust Coat, The Kraken, Devourer, Mosaico, Wasteland Princess, Bamboo Shadow, Copper, Serenity, Limelight, Apocalypto), XM1014 (Frost Borre, Ancient Lore, Red Leather, Elegant Vines, Banana Leaf, Jungle, Urban Perforated, Grassland, Blaze Orange, Heaven Guard, VariCamo Blue, Entombed, XOXO, Seasons, Tranquility, Bone Machine, Incinegator, Teclu Burner, Black Tie, Zombie Offensive, Watchdog), Nova (Baroque Orange, Hyper Beast, Green Apple, Antique, Modern Hunter, Walnut, Forest Leaves, Graphite, Blaze Orange, Rising Skull, Tempest, Bloomstick, Interlock, Quick Sand, Moon in Libra, Clean Polymer, Red Quartz, Toy Soldier), MAG-7 (Insomnia, Cinqueda, Counter Terrace, Prism Terrace, Memento, Chainmail, Hazard, Justice, Bulldozer, Silver, Core Breach, Firestarter, Praetorian, Heat, Hard Water, Monster Call, BI83 Spectrum, SWAG-7), M249 (Humidor, Shipping Forecast, Blizzard Marbleized, Downtown, Jungle DDPAT, Nebula Crusader, Impact Drill, Emerald Poison Dart), Negev (Mjölnir, Anodized Navy, Palm, Power Loader, Bratatat, CaliCamo, Phoenix Stencil, Infrastructure, Boroque Sand), Wear - Factory New (FN), Minimal Wear (MW), Field-Tested (FT), Well-Worn (WW), Battle-Scarred (BS), Stickers Holo/Foil/Gold - Katowice 2014, Krakow 2017, Howling Dawn, Katowice 2015, Crown, London 2018, Cologne 2014, Boston 2018, Atlanta 2017, Cluj-Napoca 2015, DreamHack 2014, King on the Field, Harp of War, Winged Difuser, Cologne 2016, Cologne 2015, MLG Columbus 2016, Katowice 2019, Berlin 2019, RMR 2020, Stockholm 2021, Antwerp 2022, Swag Foil, Flammable foil, Others - Souvenirs, Agents, Pins, Passes, Gifts, Music Kits, Cases, Keys, Capsules, Packages, Patches

Some items on the list may no longer be available or are still locked, visit My Inventory for more details.

Send a Trade Offer for fastest response. I consider all offers.

Add me for discuss if there is a serious offer that needs to be discussed.

submitted by _Triple_ to Csgotrading [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 02:07 OGFinn Advice for partying in Berlin M18

I'm traveling to Berlin for the first time next Tuesday for the first time with six friends. We are all born in New York City and 18. Not super involved in the music scene, but a fan of techno/house/hip-hop and wondering how to really navigate the city's nightlife. I've read the basic rules... don't flaunt your American-ness or drunkenness, but really where should we go as a group of seven guys? Is it even worth it to try Berghain, or just try our odds with KitKat? We will be staying in Rudolfkiez -- do we need any promoters/similar to get the best access to clubs? Should we split up into smaller groups? Really anything helps. Thanks so much!
submitted by OGFinn to berlinsocialclub [link] [comments]


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2023.06.03 02:01 keithwee0909 Update across the decade - they do not turn over a new leaf

tl: dr - sometimes I understand in our hearts we do hope that the bad neighbors we have will change for the better one day. I’m sorry to share that they won’t, and the best situation is probably one where both sides simply avoid each other.
Summary with updates: - when we moved in around 10 years ago. Opposite Neighbor bought a ‘bad’ unit with hardly any space outside for plants so they forcefully planted all the way to my doorstep.
Not bad if it was nicely done but the plants across the years look sickly and at times, a potential mosquito hazard.
Govt Environment reps did a spot check once and decided that their planting endeavors were blocking the pathway and cleared some of the plants but till today they are still obsessed with occupying the area up to my doorstep to themselves.
Judge was sympathetic to us but warned us to be careful. He is indeed wise.
Fast forward, after that they would literally bang the main door whenever they saw us, avoiding was good since seeing them brought no good but the passive aggressive behavior of the loud door banging never stopped into 2023.
Later 2022 weirdly they decided to install a video camera with motion sensor prob to diss us, hence I installed one too (lol) obviously they were livid but that’s life.
Recently I caught in video of the adult guy making an obscene sign staring at my door (it was closed) and wondered should I share it and thought to better just keep it as a backup in case I need one later to show their attitude.
Remember - my bad neighbor is across 10+ years, they will never mature , grow up or change and instead of hoping , learn how to ensure we are in the right and protect ourselves.
Peace to everyone here who’s been disturbed by one of these social-idiots.
submitted by keithwee0909 to BadNeighbors [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 01:56 ItsnotAGPalone Is there anywhere lgbt friendly to go for my Gender issues in delhi

I don't have any money to pay for a private therapist, no one is going to give that much money in my family for no reason, i don't have the courage to tell them, even though i don't care if they know, its just i am not that brave. I hope there are some government hospital that provides it. Also i read a article on how they try to convert lgbt people forcefully in some places, so if there are some red flags, let me know.

Background

Its been bad, i have in such a bad condition internally for few weeks, my physical health has been started to decline too, maybe its the MCD water, but its been bad in other ways too. I unwillingly finished my male puberty around the age of 16, hated it, felt like some part of me dead inside, always wanted to be a girl since the age of 3-4, supressed my identity my whole childhood, grow up very masculine, hated feminity because that was convenient even though i wanted to be fem. Always hated myself and didn't knew why, felt gender euphoria crossdressing at age 14 when i first time dared to do it. For the past one year i was fine, though i had mild dysphoria it wasn't as crushing as it is now. Last time this was as bad as now was my final stage of puberty with the growth of beard ended. That phase of crippling depression lasted almost a year. Then i accepted my true identity and started believing in essentialism of gender, ie. there is something deep down in me, something essential, that makes me a girl, so I don't need to change my gender and for the last year, i tried to integrate my feminine identity with my assigned gender. And i changed, i finally found myself and my mental health was better then its been in last 8 years (i am almost 19), i still wanted to change my gender but i didn't felt much of a urgency because my dysphoria wasn't so bad as it was.
But then reality hit me when, my friends complementing-ly said they see me as thier elder bro figure, this struck me so bad, i just realised i was living in delusion, i thought i was being tomboyish and for the whole year, i saw myself as more feminine than i actually am, i was actually developing into a man and they obviously saw me as a positive masculine figure. And i am not flattered, just realised how delusional i was.
Now that i realised my masculine manliness, nothing feels good, nothing gives me euphoria, i would usually go into my fantasies to escape reality, but even that is not working. I tried to crossdress, felt even more dysphoric because i am reminded of my small hips and wide shoulders, i constantly hate the feeling of my face, how its shaped and how my beard feels.
I am even so masculine in my thinking and behaviour and i feel like I can't escape that. I am just too stoic, logical and blunt to be a girl. I can't escape myself. But on the other side i see feminine woman and cringe at thier feminity, while desperately wanted to look as feminine as them.
I don't dislike my male body, like i think i look good for a guy, its just not the way i prefer it to be. I don't have dysmorphia, its about the way it makes me feel about my gender, rather then how it looks.
submitted by ItsnotAGPalone to LGBTindia [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 01:56 Dismal-Jellyfish ‘Shadow Banks’ Account for Half of the World’s Assets—and Pose Growing Risks: 'no one seems to have a firm handle on the risks that nonbank financial entities could pose if numerous trades and investments sour.'

‘Shadow Banks’ Account for Half of the World’s Assets—and Pose Growing Risks: 'no one seems to have a firm handle on the risks that nonbank financial entities could pose if numerous trades and investments sour.'
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/shadow-banks-account-for-half-of-the-worlds-assetsand-pose-growing-risks-8f4b5961
The sudden failure this year of three sizable American banks demonstrated one way in which the financial system can “break” as the Federal Reserve and other central banks press a campaign to normalize interest rates.
There could be others.
Risk-minded regulators, policy makers, and investors are eyeing the huge but nebulous world of largely unregulated nonbank financial intermediaries, known colloquially as shadow banks, as a potential locus of future problems. It includes sovereign-wealth funds, insurers, pension funds, hedge funds, financial-technology firms, financial clearing houses, mutual funds, and fast-growing entities such as money-market funds and private credit funds.
https://preview.redd.it/cgymd43tvo3b1.png?width=1050&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcacf11db745f213831425f72b9c0030210d287f
The nonbank financial system now controls $239 trillion, or almost half of the world’s financial assets, according to the Financial Stability Board. That’s up from 42% in 2008, and has doubled since the 2008-09 financial crisis. Postcrisis regulations helped shore up the nation’s biggest banks, but the restrictions that were imposed, coupled with years of ultralow interest rates, fueled the explosive growth of nonbank finance.
https://preview.redd.it/47cnlnpewo3b1.png?width=1030&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fc71b7cf09f7ba1523db038e13efd6354640deb
To be sure, these financial intermediaries play an important role in the economy, lending to many businesses too small or indebted to tap institutional markets. Moreover, while talk is rife on Wall Street about problems brewing in shadow banking, few have surfaced since the Fed began tightening monetary policy in the first quarter of 2022. To the contrary, disruptions caused by rising interest rates have been most evident so far in the regulated banking sector. And any turmoil in the nonbank arena could prove relatively benign, especially if the economy avoids a severe recession.
Yet, no one seems to have a firm handle on the risks that nonbank financial entities could pose if numerous trades and investments sour. Nor is there a detailed understanding of the connections among nonbank entities, or their links to the regulated banking system.
To date, this system hasn’t been tested, at this scale, for a wave of credit losses and defaults that could stem from higher rates and a weakening economy. History suggests caution: Shadow banking was at the epicenter of the financial crisis, as nontraditional financial institutions turned subprime mortgages into complex securities sold to banks and investors, often using high levels of leverage. As homeowners defaulted, these products lost value, and the damage cascaded through the financial system.
While nonbank finance looks a lot different today, as do the potential risks, it remains a source of concern. Some policy makers and bankers use the shadow-bank moniker to refer to that segment of the nonbank universe considered most likely to trigger the sorts of liquidity-draining events that sparked prior financial contagion. The Institute of International Finance ballparks such exposure at about 14% of nonbank financial assets. But the links remain cloudy between the riskier elements of shadow banking, a term that rankles many nonbank entities, and the more resilient world of market-based finance.
“The enormous size and high leverage levels of the nonbank financial-institutions sector, along with the more lax reporting and regulatory standards applied to this sector relative to banks make it a potential tinderbox,” says Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University and a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, who formerly worked at the International Monetary Fund.
Worried economists and financial analysts have been urging regulators to gain a better understanding of nonbank financial intermediaries because they see telltale signs of potential trouble, including illiquid assets, increasing leverage, lack of transparency, and rapid growth.
The nonbank universe is “everyone’s obvious candidate” for more breaks, says Simon Johnson, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a former director of research at the IMF, who has spent much of his career working to prevent economic crises.
There are no direct parallels to the asset mismatches and bank runs that took down Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank earlier this year. In part, that’s because the pension funds, insurers, and endowments of the nonbank world tend to hold assets for decades through funds that lock up their money for five to seven years. Also, big players such as private credit funds tend to use far less leverage than banks.
Still, there are indications that inflation and the sharp rise in rates may be causing strains in some parts of the nonbank system. High interest rates have sapped demand for new mortgages, for instance, hurting nonbank lenders. Liquidity in parts of the bond market, such as emerging market debt and high-yield, is at the lowest levels since the Covid pandemic. And cash flow at some companies financed by private credit is shrinking due to inflation, a slowing economy, and higher debt payments.
One thing is clear: What happens in one corner of this sprawling world doesn’t stay there. Consider the collapse of the hedge fund Archegos Capital Management in 2021. Its losses on concentrated bets on blue-chip stocks triggered a margin call that led to the sale of about $20 billion of assets. That left big banks exposed to the fund, including Nomura and UBS, with billions of dollars in losses.
“Risks came back to banks’ balance sheets from the back door,” says Fabio Massimo Natalucci, deputy director of monetary and capital markets development at the International Monetary Fund and co-author of its global financial-stability report.
Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman said in a speech this spring that losses related to riskier activities pushed out of the banking system could come back to haunt banks through activities such as the banks’ extension of credit to nonbank lenders. According to the Fed, bank lending to nonbank financial intermediaries totaled $2 trillion in commitments at the end of 2022, a level the Fed described as high.
https://preview.redd.it/vxfirsbuwo3b1.png?width=1042&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7e6505de660463394cd513dd7dce78326151fdb
While many nonbank entities are regulated in some way, no regulator has attempted to assess the overall financial stability of the nonbank world. The Financial Stability Oversight Council, or FSOC, is now seeking comments on designating some nonbank institutions as systemic and subjecting some to Federal Reserve supervision. That would reverse some of the changes made during the last administration.
A look at three types of nonbank financial intermediaries—private-credit providers, open-end bond funds, and nonbank mortgage lenders—offers a window into the prevailing concerns about shadow banking, and suggests how conditions could unravel in this sector in ways that roil the economy and the markets.

Private Credit

Rapid growth in the world of finance tends to draw attention, and few business segments have grown since the financial crisis as much as private credit. Private-credit providers typically lend directly to midsize, privately owned businesses that generate from $10 million to $1 billion of revenue and can’t get funding in the institutional market.
https://preview.redd.it/ywxrglx0xo3b1.png?width=1031&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f37c7b40949d458cabeb5beab46227134bea781
As banks retreated after the crisis and each minicrisis that followed, these financial intermediaries stepped in. Private-credit assets have mushroomed to nearly $1.5 trillion from $230 billion in 2008**,** putting the private-credit market in the league of the leveraged-loan and high-yield markets.
Drawn by high yields, attractive returns, and diversification opportunities, investors have poured money into private-credit funds. Insurers have doubled their allocation to these pools of largely illiquid assets over the past decade, while pension funds have more than doubled their allocation to alternative investments, including private credit, since 2006.
The Fed said in its financial stability report, published in May, that the risk to financial stability from private-credit funds appears limited. It noted that the funds don’t use much leverage, are held by institutional investors, and have long lockup periods, limiting the risk of runs. But the Fed also acknowledged that it had little visibility into loan portfolios, including the traits of borrowers, the nature of deal terms, and default risks.
Some observers are concerned about the connections between private lending and other nonbank activities, as well as lenders’ links to the banking sector. “Wall Street says they aren’t going to lend to subprime borrowers, but they lend to funds that lend to them,” says Ana Arsov, who oversees private-credit research at Moody’s.
There is no public view of banks’ total exposure to private credit, Arsov says. Given the scale of the business and limited visibility into the risks, analysts worry that any widespread deterioration of asset quality could ripple through other parts of the financial world before regulators could act.
Business development companies, some of which are publicly traded, offer some insight through disclosure documents into this $250 billion market. “Most managers that have both BDCs and institutional structures share deals across their platform, providing insight into the types of credits in their portfolios,” says Dwight Scott, global head of Blackstone Credit.
Moody’s sees increasing challenges for some BDCs over the next 12 to 18 months as the economy slows and companies grapple with higher borrowing costs, inflation, and market volatility. Although liquidity looks adequate for the next 12 months, loan maturities for portfolio companies will accelerate after that. If rates are still high and the economy is slumping, that could hamper the prospects for further borrowing. Similarly, lenders could become more conservative.
Blackstone Private Credit fund, or BCRED, the biggest private-credit fund, said late last year that it had hit its 5% quarterly investor-redemption limit. While Blackstone had no trouble meeting redemptions, and has reported that redemption requests fell in this year’s first quarter, Arsov worries about how smaller players would handle a similar situation. The industry’s efforts to court retail investors, she says, could increase the possibility that risks in private credit seep into broader financial markets, potentially by creating confidence issues.
What could trigger problems in the broader private-credit universe? One concern is a potential wave of struggling borrowers larger than the anticipated 5% to 6%. Arsov says expectations may be too rosy, based on the low default rate during the pandemic, when the Fed stepped in with trillions of dollars in stimulus. With the Fed now raising rates to curb inflation and trimming its balance sheet, such assistance is unlikely to be repeated.
Leverage metrics also have deteriorated, and covenant protections have weakened as the growth in private credit has increased competition for deals. Many have been concentrated in software, business services, and healthcare, in companies backed by private-equity funds. Given the benign interest-rate and economic backdrop of recent years, many private-equity investors were willing to pay higher multiples of enterprise value for companies with sustainable revenue, which allowed them to take on more leverage, says Richard Miller, head of private credit at TCW.
“Our markets stopped focusing on debt to Ebitda [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization], the longstanding gauge of risk, and looked at loan to value,” Miller says. “That was fine as long as enterprise values didn’t contract and the [interest] rate on that elevated debt didn’t go up. We have had a change in both.”
Now, some of these companies are generating less cash flow, which affects their ability to cover interest payments. While leverage isn’t as high as during the financial crisis, limiting potential systemic risk, Miller sees the risks today transferred to the individual borrower, and worries about the prospect of some borrowers running out of money.
A shift in the market might weed out weaker private-credit upstarts. But a potential combination of rising defaults, elevated interest rates, and flagging investor appetite for private credit could exacerbate a downturn, albeit in slow motion, given the nature of borrowing.
Not surprisingly, industry leaders are more upbeat. “People conflate default with losses,” says Blackstone’s Scott. But much of direct lending involves senior secured debt, he notes, which should minimize actual losses and enable lenders to help businesses through the challenges.
“Rather than increasing risk to the markets, private-credit asset managers are typically a stabilizing force, given the ability to invest patiently and opportunistically, and with little to no use of leverage, when banks and other traditional market participants either can’t or won’t,” says Michael Arougheti, chief executive of Ares Management, one of the largest alternative-asset managers.
https://preview.redd.it/8kxrl8eexo3b1.png?width=396&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0fc605506d01955897874827fecff078f2e73ba

Bond Funds

Unlike private-credit funds, which lock up investors’ money for a set period, most mutual funds allow investors to buy and sell whenever they want, offering daily liquidity. But that could turn problematic for bond funds under certain conditions, as some corporate bonds change hands only once a month—and less frequently in times of stress. If credit losses pile up or markets become stressed, some policy makers fear that bond funds could face demands to liquidate holdings at fire-sale prices, as investors scramble to sell funds with assets that have become illiquid.
Liquidity in bond markets dried up in the early days of the pandemic as investors scrambled for cash and some bond funds sold assets to meet redemptions. That set off a further frenzy as investors tried to unload assets before they became more illiquid. The selling pressure eventually forced the Fed to intervene and offer to buy corporate bonds for the first time ever to keep credit flowing. Hoping to minimize the damage from another fire sale, policy makers are looking to develop new rules, including on fund pricing.
The Investment Company Institute, which represents the mutual fund industry, has pushed back against this effort, arguing it is based on an incorrect view of the role that bond funds played in 2020. Citing its own research, the ICI says bond sales didn’t spark the Treasury market dysfunction that disrupted the flow of credit, but started only after markets began seizing up and, at that, represented a fraction of the selling.
The ICI notes that concerns about fire sales during periods of market stress aren’t unique to the mutual fund structure.
Bond funds have seen net inflows of $1.74 trillion since 2013. Global fixed-income funds, a subset of the sector, have crowded into some of the same corners of the market in the past two years. The IMF has raised alarms about that, citing fears of a stampede out of certain assets if a single fund runs into trouble.
https://preview.redd.it/4dj15yznxo3b1.png?width=1017&format=png&auto=webp&s=14d2e757c94a8a0d3a63cc276dff2b214821e715
Bid/ask spreads, a common gauge of a market’s liquidity, have widened in areas such as high-yield and emerging market debt to levels last seen in the spring of 2020, according to the IMF.
Mara Dobrescu, director of fixed-income strategies for Morningstar’s manager-research group, also sees increasing vulnerabilities, but notes that most funds are equipped to handle stresses and that not many bond funds have had to institute limits on redemptions.
Warning SignThe liquidity risk in high-yield bond funds increased in 2022 as bid-ask spreads widened.Portfolio-level bid-ask spread across fundsSource: International Monetary Fund
https://preview.redd.it/kxm1xjgrxo3b1.png?width=1016&format=png&auto=webp&s=eea6c6ccea84a93126edda215efa99bb98300c2e

Nonbank Mortgage Lenders

The mortgage market has seen dramatic changes in the years since the global financial crisis. The business of originating and servicing loans has migrated steadily away from banks, with nonbank lenders accounting for more than two-thirds of all originations. Rocket Cos. ’ [ticker: RKT] Rocket Mortgage unit and UWM Holdings ’ [UWMC] United Wholesale Mortgage top the list of the biggest lenders.
Neither company responded to Barron’s requests for comment.
Housing finance is raising flags again, not so much for risky lending practices as in 2008, but because of the business models of these nonbank lenders, which don’t have to hold as much capital as banks. With people buying fewer houses, mortgage originations are down 60% in the past two years, raising concerns that potential losses will eat into these businesses’ slim capital cushion and raise leverage levels.
https://preview.redd.it/5p3dewayxo3b1.png?width=1051&format=png&auto=webp&s=b398b224d9378bc4159a61405d55fd616238b93d
Nancy Wallace, a finance and real estate professor at the University of California, Berkeley Haas School of Business, has been warning for years about these nonbank lenders’ business model. She fears that a rise in defaults could lead to disruptions in the mortgage and housing markets.
One concern is the companies’ reliance on short-term funding through warehouse lines of credit from banks. Those presumably could be pulled during periods of market stress, or if the borrowers’ financial health were to deteriorate.
In this year’s first quarter, delinquency rates were only 3.6%, the lowest level for any first quarter since the Mortgage Bankers Association started tracking them in 1979. A sharp rise in delinquencies, however, could bring added pain, as the companies’ servicing businesses, which collect monthly payments from borrowers and funnel them to investors including banks, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, would need to advance the money.
On its own, analysts don’t see the nonbank mortgage-lending industry triggering a financial crisis, although distress throughout the industry could diminish confidence in other nonbank lenders. In a worst-case scenario, credit could dry up for riskier borrowers, hitting home prices and sapping mortgage demand.
Peter Mills, senior vice president of residential policy for the Mortgage Bankers Association, has pushed back on recent regulatory efforts aimed at designating nonbank lenders as systemic, noting that the framework under consideration doesn’t include a cost/benefit analysis or an assessment of the probability that an entity could default.
Plus, he doesn’t see a financial-transmission risk from the industry, which is working on tools to mitigate strains in the event of delinquencies. “It’s less a financial earthquake and more of an operational challenge,” he says.
That may prove to be the case throughout the nonbank financial sector as interest rates normalize and the era of free money ends. Plenty of things might bend without breaking in this vast and opaque world. Just the same, it pays to be vigilant.

TLDRS:

Shorter Version:
  • The nonbank financial intermediaries, or "shadow banks," controlling almost half of the world’s financial assets, are being watched closely as central banks work towards normalizing interest rates.
  • Though few problems have been noted since the Fed's monetary policy tightening in 2022, there are concerns about the risk these nonbank entities could pose if numerous investments fail, especially given the lack of understanding about their interconnections.
  • Rising interest rates and inflation may be causing strain in the nonbank system, with decreased demand for new mortgages and reduced liquidity in some bond markets.
  • The collapse of Archegos Capital Management in 2021 highlighted the risk of problems in one area of the nonbank system impacting others, prompting calls for regulators to improve understanding of nonbank financial intermediaries.
  • Despite private credit growth, concerns persist due to limited visibility into these funds' loan portfolios and connections between private lending and other nonbank activities, as well as links to the banking sector.
  • Bond funds, with their daily liquidity, could face challenges in times of stress when certain corporate bonds are infrequently traded, potentially leading to liquidation at reduced prices.
  • The shift from banks to nonbank lenders in the mortgage market, combined with the latter's reliance on short-term funding from banks, has raised concerns, especially in the event of a sharp rise in delinquencies.
Longer Version:
  • As the Federal Reserve and other central banks work towards normalizing interest rates, the largely unregulated nonbank financial intermediaries, also known as shadow banks, are being closely watched due to their potential to cause future financial issues.
    • These entities, which include everything from sovereign-wealth funds to financial-technology firms, currently control $239 trillion, almost half of the world’s financial assets, an increase from 42% in 2008.
  • These intermediaries serve a crucial role in the economy, lending to businesses that are too small or too indebted to tap into institutional markets.
    • Despite concerns, few issues have emerged in the shadow banking sector since the Fed began tightening monetary policy in 2022.
    • However, it's unclear what risks these nonbank entities could pose if numerous investments go sour, especially considering the lack of detailed understanding about their connections among themselves and to the regulated banking system.
  • The shadow banking system hasn't been tested on this scale against a potential wave of credit losses and defaults that could result from higher rates and a weakening economy.
    • The sector, with its size, high leverage levels, and lax reporting and regulatory standards, could potentially become a "tinderbox" according to some economists.
  • There are indications that rising interest rates and inflation may be causing some strain in the nonbank system.
    • High rates have reduced demand for new mortgages, affecting nonbank lenders. Also, liquidity in some bond markets is at the lowest levels since the COVID pandemic.
  • Still, there have been instances where problems in one part of the nonbank system have impacted others. The collapse of the hedge fund Archegos Capital Management in 2021, for example, resulted in significant losses for big banks exposed to the fund (and those continue as that bag is passed around...).
    • Given these risks, regulators are being urged to gain a better understanding of nonbank financial intermediaries.
  • Private credit has grown exponentially since the 2008 financial crisis, ballooning from $230 billion to almost $1.5 trillion.
    • This sector lends directly to midsize businesses that can't obtain funding in the institutional market.
    • Investors are attracted to private credit due to high yields, returns, and diversification opportunities.
  • The Federal Reserve stated in a recent report that risks to financial stability from private-credit funds seem limited because these funds don't use much leverage, have long lockup periods, and are held by institutional investors.
    • However, there's limited visibility into these funds' loan portfolios, including borrower characteristics, deal terms, and default risks.
  • Concerns arise from connections between private lending and other nonbank activities, as well as links to the banking sector.
    • The lack of public view into banks' total exposure to private credit is a cause for concern for some analysts who worry that asset quality deterioration could impact other parts of the financial world before regulators can intervene.
  • A potential wave of struggling borrowers larger than the anticipated 5-6% could trigger problems in the broader private credit universe.
    • Leverage metrics have also worsened, and covenant protections have weakened as competition for deals has grown.
      • The market's focus has shifted from debt to EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to loan to value, which could lead to some borrowers running out of money.
  • There is concern that a potential combination of rising defaults, high interest rates, and waning investor appetite for private credit could exacerbate a downturn.
  • Most mutual funds offer daily liquidity, allowing investors to buy and sell whenever they wish.
    • However, this could be an issue for bond funds in certain conditions, as some corporate bonds are traded only once a month and even less often during stressful times.
    • If credit losses accumulate or markets become stressed, bond funds could face pressure to liquidate holdings at reduced prices as investors rush to sell funds with illiquid assets.
  • Bond funds have experienced net inflows of $1.74 trillion since 2013, with global fixed-income funds investing heavily in certain market areas in the last two years.
    • The IMF has expressed concerns about this, noting that if a single fund encounters issues, it could lead to a rush out of certain assets.
    • Liquidity risks in high-yield bond funds have increased in 2022, with bid-ask spreads, a measure of a market’s liquidity, widening.
  • Since the global financial crisis, the mortgage market has undergone significant changes, with nonbank lenders now accounting for over two-thirds of all originations.
    • While the shift away from banks isn't due to risky lending as in 2008, concerns have been raised about the business models of nonbank lenders.
    • These lenders don't need to hold as much capital as banks, and with a 60% decline in mortgage originations in the past two years due to decreased house purchases, potential losses could deplete their modest capital buffer and increase leverage levels.
  • One concern is the nonbank lenders' reliance on short-term funding via warehouse lines of credit from banks, which could be withdrawn during market stress or if the borrowers' financial condition worsens.
    • Although delinquency rates were just 3.6% in Q1 of this year, a sharp increase could cause issues, as these companies' servicing businesses would have to advance the money.
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2023.06.03 01:19 localfyi Local Events in The Triangle this Weekend!

Saturday:
Durham Craft Market - Saturday 08:00 AM @ Durham Central Park - Durham
The Raleigh Market - For the thrill of the hunt! - Saturday 09:00 AM @ N. C. State Fairgrounds - Raleigh
Shop & Play Saturday at Phillips Farms of Cary: Kids' Summer Kick-Off with NC Eat & Play - Saturday 09:00 AM @ Phillips Farms of Cary - Cary
FREE HIIT class @ Crabtree Valley Mall w/ Princess from Fit Factory! - Saturday 09:00 AM @ Fabletics Crabtree Valley Mall - Raleigh
West Point Park Tours (4 start times) - Saturday 10:00 AM @ West Point on the Eno - Durham
Spring Kiln Opening at Mark Hewitt Pottery - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Hewitt Pottery - Pittsboro
Saturday Slowdown at RambleRill Farm in Hillsborough: shop at farmers' market, meet goats, have a picnic - Saturday 10:00 AM @ RambleRill Farm - Hillsborough
Summer Sol - Vinyasa Flow w/ Live Sound Journey & Zero Proof Cocktails - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Raleigh Rose Garden - Raleigh
1st Annual International Children's Day at the City of Raleigh Museum - Saturday 10:00 AM @ City of Raleigh Museum - Raleigh
Ever After: Fairytales, Food & Flowers - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Fred Fletcher Park - Raleigh
"Cultural Infusions": An Art Collective Art Exhibition - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Triangle Cultural Art Gallery - Raleigh
Open Farm Visit to Sunrise Community Farm - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Sunrise Community Farm Center - Chapel Hill
The Original Downtown Raleigh Murals and Public Art Tour - Saturday 10:30 AM @ 300 S Salisbury St - Raleigh
Yoga at Hi-Wire Brewing - Saturday 11:00 AM @ Hi-Wire Brewing at Golden Belt - Durham
Historic Raleigh Trolley Tours (1-hour long; 4 start times) - Saturday 11:00 AM @ Mordecai Historic Park - Raleigh
Wilson Pride Market - Saturday 11:00 AM @ Fayetteville Street - Raleigh
Flight Day at Dix Park - Saturday 11:00 AM @ Dorothea Dix Park, Big Field - Raleigh
The Market at NCMA - Saturday 11:00 AM @ North Carolina Museum of Art - Raleigh
Flight Day at Dorothea Dix Park - Saturday 11:00 AM@ Dorothea Dix Park — Big Field - Raleigh
FlushFest -- West Hillsborough's Homemade Music and Film Festival (admission by donation) - Saturday 12:00 PM @ 711 Eno Street, West Hillsborough - Hillsborough
flART Market - Saturday 12:00 PM @ ArtPost - Durham
Record Show - Saturday 12:00 PM @ Durty Bull Brewing Company - Durham
Art-n-Soul Market - Saturday 12:00 PM@ Waverly Place - Cary
Art-n-Soul Market @ Mystic Farm & Distillery - Saturday 12:00 PM @ Mystic Farm & Distillery - Durham
Rescheduled: Bond Brothers' Mid-Town Square Spring Festival - Saturday 12:00 PM @ Bond Brothers Beer Company - Cary
Raleigh's International Food Festival - Saturday 12:00 PM @ City Plaza - Raleigh
53rd Annual Bimbé Cultural Arts Festival - Saturday 1:00 PM @ Rock Quarry Park - Durham
Doughnuts with Dads at Book Harvest - Saturday 1:00 PM @ Durham Bulls Athletic Park - Durham
Live music - Saturday 2:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Raleigh
Away Home - Workshop Offering (part of NC State's TheatreFEST) - Saturday 2:00 PM @ Thompson Hall (NC State) - Raleigh
The Carrboro Really Really Free Market - Saturday 2:00 PM @ Carrboro Town Commons - Carrboro
Live music: The Stagger Brothers - Saturday 2:00 PM@ Carolina Brewery - Pittsboro
The ComedyWorx Show Matinee - Saturday 3:00 PM @ ComedyWorx - Raleigh
19th Annual Beaver Queen Pageant - Saturday 3:00 PM @ Duke Park - Durham
Saturdays in Saxapahaw Outdoor Concert Series - Saturday 3:00 PM @ Saxapahaw Post Office - Saxapahaw
Jazz + Art Market - Saturday 3:00 PM@ Artmosphere Community Arts Center - Clayton
Summertime Beer Fest - Saturday 3:00 PM @ Clouds Brewing Tap Room - Raleigh
Live music - Saturday 6:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Raleigh
The ComedyWorx Show - Saturday 6:00 PM@ ComedyWorx - Raleigh
Music at Mill Bridge - Saturday 6:00 PM @ Mill Bridge Nature Park Amphitheatre - Wake Forest
Music on Main - Saturday 6:00 PM @ The Streets at Southpoint - Durham
Live music: Maverick Rose - Saturday 6:30 PM @ Southern Peak Brewery - Apex
1st Annual Bad Prom For A Good Cause - Saturday 7:00 PM @ Tobacco Road Sports Cafe & Brewery - Raleigh
Metropolitan Community Church - Saturday 7:00 PM @ St. John’s Metropolitan Community Church -
Live music: LowderStill - Saturday 7:00 PM @ Nickelpoint Brewing Co. - Raleigh
Pride Dance Party at Gizmo Brew Works - Saturday 7:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Chapel Hill
Live Music - Saturday 7:00 @ 20 West Franklin Street Plaza - Chapel Hill
Live music: Thomas Hinds - Saturday 7:30 PM @ Oaklyn Springs Brewery - Fuquay-Varina
Glitter Hour: Amateur Drag and Queer Stage Show - Saturday 8:00 PM @ Ruby Deluxe - Raleigh
Summer F.L.I.N.G. Game Night - Saturday 8:00 PM @ 93 Rock Quarry Rd - Raleigh
Afrobeats, HipHop, Dancehall - Saturday Nights (1st Saturday of Each Month) - Saturday 10:00 PM @ Nafkot Lounge - Raleigh
Social Club: Saturday Night Social - Saturday 10:00 PM @ Social Club - Raleigh

Sunday:
The Raleigh Market - Sunday 09:00 AM @ Raleigh Market (at N.C. State Fairgrounds) - Raleigh
Free Pop-Up Yoga in Wake Forest with SoulFULLY YOURS - Sunday 09:30 AM @ Horseshoe Farm Nature Preserve - Wake Forest
A Place at the Table's "pay what you can" food truck rodeo - Sunday 11:00 AM @ A Place at the Table - Raleigh
Board Game Sundays - Sunday 12:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Durham
Spring Kiln Opening at Mark Hewitt Pottery - Sunday 12:00 PM @ Hewitt Pottery - Pittsboro
Black Farmers' Market - Sunday 1:00 PM @ Southeast Raleigh YMCA - Raleigh
Community Build Day for Durham Art Parade: Art on a Stick - Sunday 1:00 PM @ The Scrap Exchange - Durham
Youth Aviation Academy Program at John Chavis Memorial Park - Sunday 1:00 PM @ John Chavis Memorial Park - Raleigh
Historic Raleigh Trolley Pride Ride (3 start times) - Sunday 1:00 PM @ Mordecai Historic Park - Raleigh
Durham Really Really Free Market - Sunday 2:00 PM @ Lyon Park - Durham
Open Mic Hosted by Michael Brennan - Sunday 2:00 PM @ BMC Brewing - Pittsboro
Durham City of Medicine Walking Tour (pay what you want) - Sunday 2:00 PM @ Raleigh Convention Center - Raleigh
Live music: Gypsy Railroad Band - Sunday 2:00 @ Nickelpoint Brewing Co. - Raleigh
Historic Houses on the Move - Sunday 2:00 @ Bombshell Beer Company - Holly Springs
Beer, Bacon, and Bluegrass - Sunday 3:00 PM @ Oaklyn Springs Brewery - Fuquay-Varina
Open-Mic Night - Sunday 3:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Raleigh
"Pay What You Can" for tickets to Corpus Christi by Terrence McNally, presented by St. John's Six Sundays in Spring concert: Sensory Expressions - Sunday 3:30 @ E. Carroll Joyner Park - Wake Forest
Indoor Yoga at the Chapel at Dix Park - Sunday 3:30 @ Dorothea Dix Park - Raleigh
Freeman Round House Summer Event Series: Karaoke with Mia Harris - Sunday 6:00 PM @ Vollis Simpson Whirligig Park - Wilson
Sunday Salsa Social -- lesson and dance - Sunday 6:30 PM @ Triangle Dance Studios - Durham
Sunday Night Live Music - Sunday 7:00 PM @ Southern Village - Chapel Hill

Want us to send you all the fun happenings in the Triangle directly to you? Join the LocalFYI newsletter (by clicking here) to get the inside scoop sent to your inbox every Monday. Although it says just Raleigh, we send events that cover the whole Triangle there :)
Any other cool events that we missed? Comment below so we can add them to our list!
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2023.06.03 01:13 BeelzebubParty For the past few years I have been trying to watch every cinderella movie ever made, and I would like to share with you all some of the weirdest ones i've seen.

I posted this on movies and some one recommended that i post it here since i go in depth with this. I apologize if my post doesn't fit in well here, as I have never posted here before.
So, I have ADHD and one of the symptoms of my adhd is an intense hyperfixation on cinderella. It also helps that my homelife is very tumultuous so i am quite attached to her, i even have a cinderella collection. So I decided to make it a hobby of mine to engage with every single cinderella related thing i could find. Movies, games, youtube videos, stage musicals, tv series, comics, whatever it is, i have made it my mission to consume it. I'm basically an expert now.
I also believe these movies are very intriguing as a they exist in their only little niche genre that nobody really cares to take a closer look at. Cinderella movies can range from horror, to porn, to childrens fairytales, and many other genres you wouldn't really expect. They're also fascinating to me as they show how rising up above abuse is a story that stands the test of time and must be retold again and again. I think these movies deserve a little more than just a cursery glance when you pass by the bargain bin at walmart. With all that being said lots of these movies get pretty weird and i would love to share them with you.
  1. Cinderella: once upon a time in the west
Starting off with one of the weirdest ones, this Cinderella is an anthropomorphic Elk, not only that, she's also a tough as nails old western cowgirl. Her fairy godmother is an anthropomorphic male goat who's a native american shaman, and it's handled just as stereotypically as you'd imagine. She gets in a bar fight and loses a tooth and that ends up being the glass slipper replacement. Oh, and instead of horses they ride ostriches. This is surprisingly not the first cowgirl cinderella i have ever seen.
  1. Cinderfella
Ahhh Jerry Lewis, one of the funniest and most annoying people in film history. He stars in this 1950's genderbend version of cinderella with a very 1950's mentality. The fairy god father in this movie is said to be the original fairy god father from the cinderella tale, and that women lied and erased male history because "women are like russians, they wanna claim they invented everything". He is only helping fella so men can confidently snap back at their nagging wives that keep complaining their husbands aren't prince charming, because this will somehow settle the score. This movie is pretty cringe and it's treatment of women only gets worse from there, but even as a very liberal gay woman, i found this movie entertaining for what it was.
  1. Year of the fish
Wow! An actually good movie! This movie is a very artsy foreign film with an all asian cast, based on one of the oldest iterations of the cinderella story, before charels perrault came and wrote abour pumpkins and glass slippers. Ye Xian is a very demure and kind 17 year old who has been sent to work at her great aunts brothel under the guise it's a salon. She is forced to be a maid after she refuses to have sex for money and then her uncle sexually harrasses her. This movie has many many hilarious lines you would not expect from a cinderella movie. "Your momma should of taught you how to suck dick" "he likes you to touch his butt hole", at one point yi xians fairy god mother threatens to cut her tits off. This movie is incredibly fucked up and depressing, and i really respect it for that.
  1. Elle: a cinderella story
One of the worst movies i have ever seen is no doubt Elle: a cinderella story, Elle is a wannabe country singer working as an intern at a record label for 3 ungrateful pop stars. The story itself is your rather standard modern cinderella fair but where this movie gets really weird is the characters and dialouge. Elle herself is incredibly snotty and mean, she makes fun of eating disorders and other people with no remorse, and she is never held accountable. This movie is a very poor rip off of the much better movie, another cinderella story, i wouldn't reccomend anyone watch this unless you're very drunk with friends.
  1. Rags
What is Keke palmers best preformance? I'm sure some of you would say Nope or any actually good movie but i'm here to tell you that you're aaaaalll wrong! Her best role was in the movie rags, where she plays a knock off beyonce dating a knock off russelbrand and fills the prince's role in this hip hop cinderella story. Charlie prince is just your average pasty white boy who dreams of being a rapper, but his stereotypically new yorker step dad insists he must be a janitor. This movie was aired on nickelodeon and you can tell it really really wanted the success disney channel had with it's "a cinderella story" series. I always got this movie confused with let it shine and i'm not really sure how? Anyways there's not much to really say about this movie but it's interesting how Keke plays the prince in this movie and then went on to play Cinderella in the stage version of rogers and hammersteins cinderella.
  1. A cinderella story: Star struck
The fourth installment in the epic a cinderella story series, this movie stars Bailee madison, who you might know from the haunting hour or the good witch. She plays finely, a wannabe movie star farmhand but her metrosexual influencer stepfamily look down on her for being southern. She ends up cross dressing tk go to an acting audition and things just get weirder from there. Instead of two step sisters though, Finley has one step sister and a really gay step brother, who even mentions that Finley's cross dressing persona, Huck, might be gay, which is surprisingly progressive for these movies. There's some jokes about tik tok and a really cringey subplot where Finley's step sister is attracted to Huck. It's awful. Although this is surprisingly not the first time there's beenna cross dressing cinderella story.
  1. Cinderella (2002)
Yet another absolutely terrible movie, i almost feel bad picking on this cause i suspect it was some kind of passion project. I cannot imagine a studio would actually fund this and think it would make money. Cinderella is named Zezolla in this movie and she is incredibly annoying, bratty, and self righteous. Instead of a god mother we have a mermaid in a cave. 98% of this movie is green screened and Lucy Punch appears in this movie, with this being, no joke, her THIRD time playing an evil step sister in cinderella movies. Iconic. This movie is bad. Do not watch it.
Honestly i could keep going but i suspect anybody who actually bothered to read this far is getting bored. Despite how bad these movies are i am glad i watched them and i respect the people who made them for trying to tell cinderella's story in new, intriguing ways. I love that this story about survival and abuse has so many movies about it, that's incredible.
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2023.06.03 01:12 401kind My therapist secretly showed up outside my apartment. I secretly visited his sister's grave. This is a wild ride. I just need grace.

MASSIVE TRIGGER WARNING ⚠️ mention of various forms of abuse including SA, mention of suicide in some detail, mention of death
PREFACE
I understand this is the internet and I cannot expect people to have grace or mercy on me for any of this. All I can do is ask that if you’re going to give me your input, that you try and be as kind as possible. My heart is hurting and I really don’t feel I am in a place to hear that I need to entirely -drop- this therapist right now. My background of abuse and trauma will hopefully explain why that is, but I am not ready to let go. I am mostly posting this to vent, but also hoping that if anyone does have any advice that could help me even just in the short term with coping, that it will be gently shared.
BACKGROUND
I will try and keep this as short and sweet as possible but there’s a whole lot of history here. I am 27F, and I grew up in an unimaginably abusive home. Sex trafficking, severe physical, sexual, and emotional abuse from my father and my older brother (very patriarchal family), and a slew of very complicated and scary health issues including a liver disease and cancer. My family set me up to never be able to move out or live independently because they genuinely have viewed me to be their property. The severity of this can hopefully be summed up in just a few example:
Was never allowed to even get myself a glass of water in the kitchen or learn to cook Was not potty trained and had to rely on my mom to go to the bathroom into my teenage years Drinking only from sippy cups until teenage years Location monitored on my phone Every credit card transaction / finance watched closely Could not move away from college
My brother was allowed and able to do all these things, but I was not. My entire life, teachers and “adults” that were supposed to catch these things did not even bat an eye. They instead placed me in remedial classes and ESL assuming that I just had a learning disability or a language barrier (which I do not). When I told teachers in the past about my abuse, it was handled extremely poorly and no authorities ever got involved. My life felt worthless; meaningless. Like I could scream from the rooftops of my school that I was being abused and no one cared.
This past January, I did the unthinkable. I left my family and got my own apartment. Friends, therapists, coworkers, everyone who remotely knew me has been pushing me to do this for years and I genuinely thought I would die in my situation. I developed severe Stockholm syndrome so a huge part of my lack of leaving was due to my own internal thought patterns. I did it through the help of my current therapist, which is my… fourth? therapist that’s attempted to help. The last ones took advantage of how naive I was and hurt me (one of them has been arrested). This therapist, however, invested everything to get me out. He really wanted to see me free. And I am forever grateful for him.
MY CURRENT THERAPIST & BACKSTORY
I started seeing this therapist early in 2022 when I was still living with my family. I became severely bedridden and could not even go to the bathroom without my mom or dad escorting me. My anxiety and panic were at an all time high. I was on a leave of absence from work, and this therapist was the only reason I had for HAVING to get out of bed and forcing myself to drive, and most days I couldn’t even do that. He was patient, compassionate, and was willing to go to great lengths to help. Though mostly irrelevant, he’s 45M. He got into school for counseling later in life so when I started seeing him, he was just an intern under the director of the practice. At the time, the director of the practice was seeing an old time friend of mine (who happened to recently become my coworker). My friend had gotten concerned about why I wasn’t showing up to work and why I was struggling so much. I didn’t want to open up to her about it because I couldn’t open up to anyone at the time. However, my friend asked the director of the place if she knew anything about me. The director broke into my therapist’s file under the guise of “he is my intern, I can look at his stuff” and then relayed all of that information to my friend. It became an entire case against the state board and I fought tooth and nail to get that director in trouble. In the end, nothing was done and in retaliation, the director fired my therapist and I had to wait until my therapist found a new job in order to see him (he was pre-graduation by just a few weeks so he couldn’t ethically talk to me until he had another practice). During the worst moments of my life, I was without my therapist (no fault of his, and he checked on me frequently), but it was really only for a few weeks. To me that was a lot since I had been going 2-3 times a week, sometimes 4 because of my situation.
THE CRYSTAL AND THE SAGE
My therapist had gone out of town briefly and came back with a crystal he got. He told me when he purchased it he knew he wanted to give it to someone. And he said that it made him think of me and he wants me to have it. He said he wants it to be a reminder that he cares and others care and that it represents my truth to hold close. Months later, he went on another trip and said he got sage that someone gave him that was super special and he wanted me to have it. He was very invested in making sure I felt like he cares and has my back. I was never into spirituality in the same way as him so I respectfully accepted his kindness but kind of scoffed at him. It became more of a joke.
HOW MY BROTHER AND MY THERAPIST STARTED TEXTING
The director of the previous practice had tried to harass me with a fake number, as well as to my therapist. She wanted to try and get us to drop the case, I guess? When I continued to get texts from fake numbers, my therapist asked me to give him the number that was blowing up my phone. It turns out, timing was absolutely terrible. My brother (who moved out of state) was the one who started harassing me. My parents/brother allowed me to go to therapy to “work on my panic attacks” but they began hating the fact that my therapist was helping me become independent. My brother was outraged and texted me anonymously to kill myself. Because I still thought at the time that it was the director of the place, I went ahead and shared the number with my therapist. And that’s how it all began.
THE VIDEO THREATS FROM MY THERAPIST
Things got out of hand over the months. My therapist felt extremely protective of me and a “savior complex” kicked in. The reasoning for this is worth noting / important. My therapist lost his sister to suicide when they were young, and he also lost his father shortly after. His sister apparently had also been assaulted and my therapist had mentioned to me before how he views me as a friend, someone to protect, like a sister. He admitted his struggle with transference and said his main and only concern was to get me to move out of my family’s house. To take a leap of faith. He was desperate to do that. He offered to help me get an apartment near him so he could help me out, he offered to babysit my dog for me (my golden retriever is my emotional support animal that my parents have used as a bargaining chip), he offered to see me in therapy 5 times a week if I just moved. I just wasn’t ready. But my brother would not relent.
My therapist still does not know that I know this, but my brother showed me some of the videos my therapist sent him. Three separate threatening videos. In them, my therapist was shirtless with a ski mask on saying he was part of the FBI and that if my brother didn’t behave himself, that he would have his people come after him. My brother said that I was threatening him and that if I didn’t get this man to stop, it would be trouble. My therapist got extremely activated and decided to take it as a challenge.
My therapist also at some points asked my brother “how to assault me” because he wanted to know what my brother did/wanted him to admit it. But if an outsider saw the texts, it would seem like my therapist was asking to participate in assaulting me. It looked HORRIBLY incriminating.
THE MOVE OUT
I got the courage one night. Drove my dog over to my therapist’s house and moved in with a friend while I apartment hunted. My therapist was incredibly proud of me and poured so much love and care into my dog. I truly felt hopeful and optimistic and I eventually applied for my own apartment and got approved. Because of severe Stockholm syndrome and lack of knowing how to do ANYTHING, I would end up visiting home (somehow, they allowed that and I did not die!)
THE ASSAULT
Long story short (I am not super comfortable going into this part), people from the temple I was sex trafficked in (linked with my family), showed up and assaulted me at gun point in a van. I told my therapist. He was extremely upset on my behalf and called the police. He told me it was essential that I get restraining orders and that I stop going over to my parents house even if I have Stockholm syndrome. He said he could no longer be patient on that because I was actively being attacked. I told him I was still too nervous to go no contact and I could tell he was frustrated with me.
WHEN MY THERAPIST SECRETLY SAT OUTSIDE MY APARTMENT
My brother / someone from the temple decided to start things up once he figured out the person he was texting earlier was in fact my therapist. He threatened my therapist and challenged him to meet up. My brother was bluffing but my therapist took it seriously. My therapist arranged to meet him outside my apartment at 9pm that night. I had a weird gut feeling so I texted my therapist that night and asked him not to do anything stupid, but I had no idea what he had up his sleeve. Without telling me, my therapist sat outside my apartment waiting for my brother (who never showed) to meet him. Why my therapist chose to meet him RIGHT OUTSIDE my new residence was extremely irresponsible.
I went to take my dog out to the bathroom that night and my friend and I were hanging out. She noticed a dark car with someone sitting and staring with a mask on. We walked closer and it was my therapist. I yelled at him because I was so worried he would’ve gotten shot or attacked and that he would get hurt as a result of trying to fight. My therapist apologized and was so embarrassed. He awkwardly said “you weren’t supposed to know about this…” and drove off full force. We hopped in my friends car and followed him to wherever he tried to run off to. He then promised me he would leave. About 20 mins later, my friend and I decide to go out to get food and we see him sitting in another part of my apartment complex still ready to fight. I was so upset that he lied to me multiple times and that he was risking his life. What would’ve happened if he got attacked? But my therapist apologized again and said “I just need to look him in the eye” implying he was ready to kill.
THE DREAMS ABOUT MY THERAPIST’S LATE SISTER
As my therapist had told me, his sister had passed away from suicide when they were young. He admitted to have transference in a way where he viewed me in a sisterly way. For a while, I continually had dreams about his sister and it was very weird. I told him I don’t believe in a lot of things like crystals or burning sage but that these dreams felt incredibly vivid. In the dreams, her sister was assuring me that my therapist was sent in my life to be the brother I couldn’t have. That he was sent to me as a brother, and I to him as a sister.
THE HOSPITAL
Just within the span of days after he showed up to my apartment, I was hospitalized due to complications with my liver, and I reached out to my family for help. My therapist was upset with me for interacting with my family at all. My therapist even visited me in the hospital and said that I don’t need to call my family for help and that I have him and my other friends who will have my back. After I was discharged from the hospital, I asked my therapist if I could take my dog back for at least a weekend (he took my dog in while I went to the hospital in order to help me. He said he would hang onto him while I recovered and caught up on rest). So when he gave me my dog for the weekend, out of guilt, I took my dog with me to visit my family. I just felt the need to run back. My dad manipulated me a lot about missing my dog so I felt obligated.
MY THERAPIST’S FRUSTRATION
I admitted to my therapist that I had taken my dog to my parents for the weekend (after I already gave him my dog back). My therapist was so upset about it. He had put so much love and time into my dog and helping me, and then I took him back to the hands of my abusers. This is when him pulling back began. He felt like he was doing all of this extraneous stuff for me and I was just taking steps back.
THE SUICIDE METHOD
As he got over his frustration a little bit, I became very suicidal to the point where I purchased a rope and planned it out. I made him the beneficiary of my bank accounts as a thank you to him for everything. He told me he would do what he could to help me. He said I could bring my dog back to him if I just need a life break. He didn’t know I had the rope but he knew I was thinking suicide. When I went back to drop my dog off, I admitted I had a rope. I gave it to him. He realized I was genuinely going to kill myself and was so grateful I told him the truth. He told me he would be there for me to help me through it. Showed me grace and compassion and everything.
THE MAJOR PULLBACK
No warning. No indication. My therapist immediately pulled back. Hard. He told me to call him later that week (I usually have therapy 3x a week but he was out of town), and so I did as he said and called him to update him. He immediately flipped out. “Ugh, I cannot be in anything extra to your therapy space. I am going through things on my own and I need to pull back. I can’t take calls any hour of the day anymore. I can’t take your dog. You don’t even listen to me anyway. You do what you want and go to your parents. So, I don’t know what to say. I am committed to you as your therapist but that’s it. If you feel suicidal outside of that, go to a hospital and get sedated.” I was absolutely crushed and felt so awful and guilty like I did something wrong. I didn’t want to bother him. I didn’t want to lose him. He made me feel loved and cared for (platonically, as a brother) and I felt so safe with him. Until this moment. He was very hung up on the fact that I kept going home to my family despite his efforts.
After calming down he explained how he feels like he needs to step back because his emotions shouldn’t affect my therapy and that he’s doing it to help me. But it felt very selfish. He over exerted himself by showing up to my apartment and sending threatening videos when I never asked for it, all because HE wanted to. And now he pulls back because HE wants to. None of his decisions were based on what I would feel, but what would best serve him.
THE RELAPSE AND THE DREAMS
Because my therapist stepped back so hard, I relapsed and said “screw it” / went back to my parents. I still had my apartment but I backslid majorly.
During this time I was so distraught. This therapist made me feel supported. And no, I didn’t attach onto him in an unhealthy way where he became my only hope. But he did feel like the brother I wished I had, and he felt like such a deep and important part of my life and I was devastated.
I started having dreams again about his sister and I cried. I felt like I was given this gift and then it was taken away.
THE BACK AND FORTH
My therapist began telling me that he thinks I should have additional support in this season especially while he “takes a break from extraneous stuff” with me. He said when he was younger and going through things, he had two therapists.
A week later I told him I found a second therapist and he said: “ummm I don’t know. I feel protective over that. Maybe don’t get a second one. Find a support group but I don’t want you seeing another one.”
I stood my ground and said I might still find one and he said “well then make sure the other one is a woman and is closely in touch with me.”
It felt very wishy washy and he did a lot of similar things like this for a while.
But when I listened to him and decided against a second therapist, he pulled back again. He said he wouldn’t take any more texts or calls outside of session once again and made me feel like an obsessed freak when I wasn’t even really doing much at all. Or asking for anything.
VISITING MY THERAPIST’S LATE SISTER’S GRAVE
My therapist is a famous author and singesong writer. Online, it’s very easy to find his sister’s name and I did some digging and found out where her grave is located. I was feeling really awful, like I was grieving the loss myself which is so incredibly psychotic. I know. But it more so felt like I was grieving the loss of this brotherly love I once felt from my therapist. But it’s been a couple months at this point and he still refuses to take texts or calls, and is very argumentative and angry in sessions. And I just wanted to take some flowers to the grave in private, not tell him, and just accept that he can’t be what I needed him to be for me.
MY FAMILY FINDS OUT
When I went to the cemetery, the place was huge. So I had to go into the office and ask for the location of his sister’s grave. They gave me a piece of paper with her name and grave location on it and I eventually just threw it in my wallet. My dad stumbled upon my wallet while I was at home one of the days and noticed the last name and asked me if I was still seeing my therapist. They don’t like him for obvious reasons. But I admitted to my parents that I do still see my therapist and that he’s more like family than they’d ever be. They abused me. But I stood in my truth. At the end of the day I will not deny that my therapist DID help me immensely and if that means I have to be abused for the truth, I’ll do it.
MY THERAPIST INSISTS ON INFORMATION
He knew that I was hiding something. I told him my family was abusive again but I didn’t say why. He spent an entire session saying he needs to know what happened. I said no multiple times and that I didn’t want to talk about it. He used language like “you have to tell me before you leave my office” and “if you care so much about me you’ll tell me.” He even told me he was going to take my hand and promise me that he won’t react. He held it and looked me in the eye and promised he’d meet me with compassion. I refused. He then asked me if I’ve been lying to him. Deceptive. It broke me and I felt like it was just such an insult. But I stayed strong and he apologized for bothering me about it.
Last week comes around and it feels like such a hindrance. He’s continuing to be short with me and not answer my texts, not taking emergency calls, and just… is continuing to be cold. I even texted him that I was genuinely feeling suicidal and he told me he can’t help me outside of session. Period.
So then after my latest session, I told him I’d text him what happened because I was too uncomfortable to say it. I told him I visited his sister’s grave, about the dreams, everything. I said I felt really hurt at his pullback and how it felt selfish.
He responded by gaslighting me endlessly and it absolutely crushed me furthermore. He responded as follows:
“Ok crystals and dreams? I don’t believe in them. I don’t believe that was my sister. I don’t know how I feel about you visiting her grave. I am not your brother and I can’t be your brother. And yes it was a nice gesture I guess but clearly you are focusing on the wrong thing. Let’s not talk about the weeds and the details. Let’s focus on you.” And completely shut down any further conversation about it.
In the past I have insisted and begged him to process him showing up at my apartment with me because I am still shaken up. He just always says “I never should’ve gotten involved like that but we are NOT going to talk about this ever again” and has always refused to hear how I felt about it.
He went back on vacation this past weekend and refused to take my call when I needed help, refused to text me, or anything. I called off work two days in a row because I was so devastated at his anger toward me and the gaslighting. It felt so unfair. I wanted to talk to him over the weekend because I was genuinely so hurt and felt like I truly lost him. He didn’t care.
WHERE TO GO FROM HERE?
I had an appointment in person tonight. First in person one since I told him about everything. I am embarrassed and feel so guilty that I visited his sister’s grave behind his back. It makes me feel psychotic. But at least I was honest and didn’t wait until I got caught / did not gaslight him.
I have a major surgery tomorrow and he won’t help me with my dog. I’ve gone back to my parents for now until I am recovered.
I want to tell him how hurt I am but I have tried that. He never understands. I miss him. As a brother.
I ended up going to session and he asked me why I feel off in therapy. He literally said “other than me slightly having to pull back right now what have I really done?”
I don’t know if I ever can get him to see my side or my pain in this.
FINAL THOUGHTS / MISC
I was seeing him three times a week and one day he randomly cancelled my third session, and every week after “something came up” that day and he just kept canceling. Eventually he just exploded and said “I DO NOT work that third day anymore.” Without giving me any explanation or time to adjust or heads up. Like he clearly needed a break.
I was in the hospital just now for my surgery and I wanted so badly to reach out to him for support. I couldn’t. My heart hurts knowing that I once had this brotherly love in my life that I had lost.
Even now in session he uses the analogy of “if you were my sister” or “if you were my wife” after knowing I am clearly struggling with accepting he has pulled back. He used to say I am his friend over and over and now he just acts so cold. I know he’s trying to maintain boundaries. I know. But too late. He screwed with my emotions SO much.
I have horrible, horrible OCD and my brain keeps trying to do stupid things to fix this. I also keep asking myself over and over:
1. Will he ever take my dog back if I really needed him to? (obviously I can find other pet sitters but my brain is so hung up on —— if I asked him in an emergency situation, would he refuse?)
2. Will he ever stop ignoring my texts? I’ve reached out to him about being suicidal. About being in a state of panic. Previously, he would call me and stay on the phone with me while I got through an attack. I AM NOT EXPECTING THIS. I do not expect him to be available on demand. But his SUDDEN extreme pull back makes me think that I was the one that did something wrong.
3.Does this mean he emotionally does not care about me and my situation anymore? Did he just turn his emotions off? Did he ever even care? He would make me send him a text every day listing three things I am grateful for as a means to check in. He would also randomly send me quotes from books he was reading that he thought I could relate to. All facilitated by him. All of this has randomly stopped and it makes me feel like he hates me. Is it at all possible that this is a reflection of him not caring?
4.Is his pullback a temporary extreme and will he readjust and go back to being there for me? Or is this a permanent shift, likely? Can I expect things to even out or go back to him investing care and time? Again I KNOW the focus is on me having to do that for myself. I know I CAN move on from this if needed but I really, really began to love him (PLATONICALLY like family) and having him around. It breaks me so much. It was so important to me to have him.
I have been taking major time off of work and from seeing friend or leaving my house. I have completely self isolated. Refused medical treatment against doctor’s advice. Risked my job by calling off so much. Taking a leave of absence. Become bedridden. I know it sounds like I’ve become obsessed with fixing this situation and that seems psychotic and sad. But given my history with everything I have been through, this therapist had given me hope to feel like someone had my back. Losing him feels like a major major loss that’s soul crushing. Yes I have other people and no he cannot be my focus. But this is how I feel and I cannot help it. I do not want to be shamed for it. It just freaking hurts.
Again I know the majority of people will want to come at my therapist or me for doing wrong things. I know it doesn’t seem like this, but he really isn’t intentionally manipulative or gaslight-y, he’s just trying to regulate himself.
I have grace for him. And for myself. So please, please try and respond with compassion. I don’t want to lose him. But I feel like I kind of am.
What are your overall thoughts, in the most gentle way possible? Was I wrong for telling him the truth about the grave?
submitted by 401kind to confessions [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 01:06 401kind AITAH for being upset with my therapist? Please go easy, I am really hurting.

MASSIVE TRIGGER WARNING ⚠️ mention of various forms of abuse including SA, mention of suicide in some detail, mention of death
PREFACE
I understand this is the internet and I cannot expect people to have grace or mercy on me for any of this. All I can do is ask that if you’re going to give me your input, that you try and be as kind as possible. My heart is hurting and I really don’t feel I am in a place to hear that I need to entirely -drop- this therapist right now. My background of abuse and trauma will hopefully explain why that is, but I am not ready to let go. I am mostly posting this to vent, but also hoping that if anyone does have any advice that could help me even just in the short term with coping, that it will be gently shared.
BACKGROUND
I will try and keep this as short and sweet as possible but there’s a whole lot of history here. I am 27F, and I grew up in an unimaginably abusive home. Sex trafficking, severe physical, sexual, and emotional abuse from my father and my older brother (very patriarchal family), and a slew of very complicated and scary health issues including a liver disease and cancer. My family set me up to never be able to move out or live independently because they genuinely have viewed me to be their property. The severity of this can hopefully be summed up in just a few example:
Was never allowed to even get myself a glass of water in the kitchen or learn to cook Was not potty trained and had to rely on my mom to go to the bathroom into my teenage years Drinking only from sippy cups until teenage years Location monitored on my phone Every credit card transaction / finance watched closely Could not move away from college
My brother was allowed and able to do all these things, but I was not. My entire life, teachers and “adults” that were supposed to catch these things did not even bat an eye. They instead placed me in remedial classes and ESL assuming that I just had a learning disability or a language barrier (which I do not). When I told teachers in the past about my abuse, it was handled extremely poorly and no authorities ever got involved. My life felt worthless; meaningless. Like I could scream from the rooftops of my school that I was being abused and no one cared.
This past January, I did the unthinkable. I left my family and got my own apartment. Friends, therapists, coworkers, everyone who remotely knew me has been pushing me to do this for years and I genuinely thought I would die in my situation. I developed severe Stockholm syndrome so a huge part of my lack of leaving was due to my own internal thought patterns. I did it through the help of my current therapist, which is my… fourth? therapist that’s attempted to help. The last ones took advantage of how naive I was and hurt me (one of them has been arrested). This therapist, however, invested everything to get me out. He really wanted to see me free. And I am forever grateful for him.
MY CURRENT THERAPIST & BACKSTORY
I started seeing this therapist early in 2022 when I was still living with my family. I became severely bedridden and could not even go to the bathroom without my mom or dad escorting me. My anxiety and panic were at an all time high. I was on a leave of absence from work, and this therapist was the only reason I had for HAVING to get out of bed and forcing myself to drive, and most days I couldn’t even do that. He was patient, compassionate, and was willing to go to great lengths to help. Though mostly irrelevant, he’s 45M. He got into school for counseling later in life so when I started seeing him, he was just an intern under the director of the practice. At the time, the director of the practice was seeing an old time friend of mine (who happened to recently become my coworker). My friend had gotten concerned about why I wasn’t showing up to work and why I was struggling so much. I didn’t want to open up to her about it because I couldn’t open up to anyone at the time. However, my friend asked the director of the place if she knew anything about me. The director broke into my therapist’s file under the guise of “he is my intern, I can look at his stuff” and then relayed all of that information to my friend. It became an entire case against the state board and I fought tooth and nail to get that director in trouble. In the end, nothing was done and in retaliation, the director fired my therapist and I had to wait until my therapist found a new job in order to see him (he was pre-graduation by just a few weeks so he couldn’t ethically talk to me until he had another practice). During the worst moments of my life, I was without my therapist (no fault of his, and he checked on me frequently), but it was really only for a few weeks. To me that was a lot since I had been going 2-3 times a week, sometimes 4 because of my situation.
THE CRYSTAL AND THE SAGE
My therapist had gone out of town briefly and came back with a crystal he got. He told me when he purchased it he knew he wanted to give it to someone. And he said that it made him think of me and he wants me to have it. He said he wants it to be a reminder that he cares and others care and that it represents my truth to hold close. Months later, he went on another trip and said he got sage that someone gave him that was super special and he wanted me to have it. He was very invested in making sure I felt like he cares and has my back. I was never into spirituality in the same way as him so I respectfully accepted his kindness but kind of scoffed at him. It became more of a joke.
HOW MY BROTHER AND MY THERAPIST STARTED TEXTING
The director of the previous practice had tried to harass me with a fake number, as well as to my therapist. She wanted to try and get us to drop the case, I guess? When I continued to get texts from fake numbers, my therapist asked me to give him the number that was blowing up my phone. It turns out, timing was absolutely terrible. My brother (who moved out of state) was the one who started harassing me. My parents/brother allowed me to go to therapy to “work on my panic attacks” but they began hating the fact that my therapist was helping me become independent. My brother was outraged and texted me anonymously to kill myself. Because I still thought at the time that it was the director of the place, I went ahead and shared the number with my therapist. And that’s how it all began.
THE VIDEO THREATS FROM MY THERAPIST
Things got out of hand over the months. My therapist felt extremely protective of me and a “savior complex” kicked in. The reasoning for this is worth noting / important. My therapist lost his sister to suicide when they were young, and he also lost his father shortly after. His sister apparently had also been assaulted and my therapist had mentioned to me before how he views me as a friend, someone to protect, like a sister. He admitted his struggle with transference and said his main and only concern was to get me to move out of my family’s house. To take a leap of faith. He was desperate to do that. He offered to help me get an apartment near him so he could help me out, he offered to babysit my dog for me (my golden retriever is my emotional support animal that my parents have used as a bargaining chip), he offered to see me in therapy 5 times a week if I just moved. I just wasn’t ready. But my brother would not relent.
My therapist still does not know that I know this, but my brother showed me some of the videos my therapist sent him. Three separate threatening videos. In them, my therapist was shirtless with a ski mask on saying he was part of the FBI and that if my brother didn’t behave himself, that he would have his people come after him. My brother said that I was threatening him and that if I didn’t get this man to stop, it would be trouble. My therapist got extremely activated and decided to take it as a challenge.
My therapist also at some points asked my brother “how to assault me” because he wanted to know what my brother did/wanted him to admit it. But if an outsider saw the texts, it would seem like my therapist was asking to participate in assaulting me. It looked HORRIBLY incriminating.
THE MOVE OUT
I got the courage one night. Drove my dog over to my therapist’s house and moved in with a friend while I apartment hunted. My therapist was incredibly proud of me and poured so much love and care into my dog. I truly felt hopeful and optimistic and I eventually applied for my own apartment and got approved. Because of severe Stockholm syndrome and lack of knowing how to do ANYTHING, I would end up visiting home (somehow, they allowed that and I did not die!)
THE ASSAULT
Long story short (I am not super comfortable going into this part), people from the temple I was sex trafficked in (linked with my family), showed up and assaulted me at gun point in a van. I told my therapist. He was extremely upset on my behalf and called the police. He told me it was essential that I get restraining orders and that I stop going over to my parents house even if I have Stockholm syndrome. He said he could no longer be patient on that because I was actively being attacked. I told him I was still too nervous to go no contact and I could tell he was frustrated with me.
WHEN MY THERAPIST SECRETLY SAT OUTSIDE MY APARTMENT
My brother / someone from the temple decided to start things up once he figured out the person he was texting earlier was in fact my therapist. He threatened my therapist and challenged him to meet up. My brother was bluffing but my therapist took it seriously. My therapist arranged to meet him outside my apartment at 9pm that night. I had a weird gut feeling so I texted my therapist that night and asked him not to do anything stupid, but I had no idea what he had up his sleeve. Without telling me, my therapist sat outside my apartment waiting for my brother (who never showed) to meet him. Why my therapist chose to meet him RIGHT OUTSIDE my new residence was extremely irresponsible.
I went to take my dog out to the bathroom that night and my friend and I were hanging out. She noticed a dark car with someone sitting and staring with a mask on. We walked closer and it was my therapist. I yelled at him because I was so worried he would’ve gotten shot or attacked and that he would get hurt as a result of trying to fight. My therapist apologized and was so embarrassed. He awkwardly said “you weren’t supposed to know about this…” and drove off full force. We hopped in my friends car and followed him to wherever he tried to run off to. He then promised me he would leave. About 20 mins later, my friend and I decide to go out to get food and we see him sitting in another part of my apartment complex still ready to fight. I was so upset that he lied to me multiple times and that he was risking his life. What would’ve happened if he got attacked? But my therapist apologized again and said “I just need to look him in the eye” implying he was ready to kill.
THE DREAMS ABOUT MY THERAPIST’S LATE SISTER
As my therapist had told me, his sister had passed away from suicide when they were young. He admitted to have transference in a way where he viewed me in a sisterly way. For a while, I continually had dreams about his sister and it was very weird. I told him I don’t believe in a lot of things like crystals or burning sage but that these dreams felt incredibly vivid. In the dreams, her sister was assuring me that my therapist was sent in my life to be the brother I couldn’t have. That he was sent to me as a brother, and I to him as a sister.
THE HOSPITAL
Just within the span of days after he showed up to my apartment, I was hospitalized due to complications with my liver, and I reached out to my family for help. My therapist was upset with me for interacting with my family at all. My therapist even visited me in the hospital and said that I don’t need to call my family for help and that I have him and my other friends who will have my back. After I was discharged from the hospital, I asked my therapist if I could take my dog back for at least a weekend (he took my dog in while I went to the hospital in order to help me. He said he would hang onto him while I recovered and caught up on rest). So when he gave me my dog for the weekend, out of guilt, I took my dog with me to visit my family. I just felt the need to run back. My dad manipulated me a lot about missing my dog so I felt obligated.
MY THERAPIST’S FRUSTRATION
I admitted to my therapist that I had taken my dog to my parents for the weekend (after I already gave him my dog back). My therapist was so upset about it. He had put so much love and time into my dog and helping me, and then I took him back to the hands of my abusers. This is when him pulling back began. He felt like he was doing all of this extraneous stuff for me and I was just taking steps back.
THE SUICIDE METHOD
As he got over his frustration a little bit, I became very suicidal to the point where I purchased a rope and planned it out. I made him the beneficiary of my bank accounts as a thank you to him for everything. He told me he would do what he could to help me. He said I could bring my dog back to him if I just need a life break. He didn’t know I had the rope but he knew I was thinking suicide. When I went back to drop my dog off, I admitted I had a rope. I gave it to him. He realized I was genuinely going to kill myself and was so grateful I told him the truth. He told me he would be there for me to help me through it. Showed me grace and compassion and everything.
THE MAJOR PULLBACK
No warning. No indication. My therapist immediately pulled back. Hard. He told me to call him later that week (I usually have therapy 3x a week but he was out of town), and so I did as he said and called him to update him. He immediately flipped out. “Ugh, I cannot be in anything extra to your therapy space. I am going through things on my own and I need to pull back. I can’t take calls any hour of the day anymore. I can’t take your dog. You don’t even listen to me anyway. You do what you want and go to your parents. So, I don’t know what to say. I am committed to you as your therapist but that’s it. If you feel suicidal outside of that, go to a hospital and get sedated.” I was absolutely crushed and felt so awful and guilty like I did something wrong. I didn’t want to bother him. I didn’t want to lose him. He made me feel loved and cared for (platonically, as a brother) and I felt so safe with him. Until this moment. He was very hung up on the fact that I kept going home to my family despite his efforts.
After calming down he explained how he feels like he needs to step back because his emotions shouldn’t affect my therapy and that he’s doing it to help me. But it felt very selfish. He over exerted himself by showing up to my apartment and sending threatening videos when I never asked for it, all because HE wanted to. And now he pulls back because HE wants to. None of his decisions were based on what I would feel, but what would best serve him.
THE RELAPSE AND THE DREAMS
Because my therapist stepped back so hard, I relapsed and said “screw it” / went back to my parents. I still had my apartment but I backslid majorly.
During this time I was so distraught. This therapist made me feel supported. And no, I didn’t attach onto him in an unhealthy way where he became my only hope. But he did feel like the brother I wished I had, and he felt like such a deep and important part of my life and I was devastated.
I started having dreams again about his sister and I cried. I felt like I was given this gift and then it was taken away.
THE BACK AND FORTH
My therapist began telling me that he thinks I should have additional support in this season especially while he “takes a break from extraneous stuff” with me. He said when he was younger and going through things, he had two therapists.
A week later I told him I found a second therapist and he said: “ummm I don’t know. I feel protective over that. Maybe don’t get a second one. Find a support group but I don’t want you seeing another one.”
I stood my ground and said I might still find one and he said “well then make sure the other one is a woman and is closely in touch with me.”
It felt very wishy washy and he did a lot of similar things like this for a while.
But when I listened to him and decided against a second therapist, he pulled back again. He said he wouldn’t take any more texts or calls outside of session once again and made me feel like an obsessed freak when I wasn’t even really doing much at all. Or asking for anything.
VISITING MY THERAPIST’S LATE SISTER’S GRAVE
My therapist is a famous author and singesong writer. Online, it’s very easy to find his sister’s name and I did some digging and found out where her grave is located. I was feeling really awful, like I was grieving the loss myself which is so incredibly psychotic. I know. But it more so felt like I was grieving the loss of this brotherly love I once felt from my therapist. But it’s been a couple months at this point and he still refuses to take texts or calls, and is very argumentative and angry in sessions. And I just wanted to take some flowers to the grave in private, not tell him, and just accept that he can’t be what I needed him to be for me.
MY FAMILY FINDS OUT
When I went to the cemetery, the place was huge. So I had to go into the office and ask for the location of his sister’s grave. They gave me a piece of paper with her name and grave location on it and I eventually just threw it in my wallet. My dad stumbled upon my wallet while I was at home one of the days and noticed the last name and asked me if I was still seeing my therapist. They don’t like him for obvious reasons. But I admitted to my parents that I do still see my therapist and that he’s more like family than they’d ever be. They abused me. But I stood in my truth. At the end of the day I will not deny that my therapist DID help me immensely and if that means I have to be abused for the truth, I’ll do it.
MY THERAPIST INSISTS ON INFORMATION
He knew that I was hiding something. I told him my family was abusive again but I didn’t say why. He spent an entire session saying he needs to know what happened. I said no multiple times and that I didn’t want to talk about it. He used language like “you have to tell me before you leave my office” and “if you care so much about me you’ll tell me.” He even told me he was going to take my hand and promise me that he won’t react. He held it and looked me in the eye and promised he’d meet me with compassion. I refused. He then asked me if I’ve been lying to him. Deceptive. It broke me and I felt like it was just such an insult. But I stayed strong and he apologized for bothering me about it.
Last week comes around and it feels like such a hindrance. He’s continuing to be short with me and not answer my texts, not taking emergency calls, and just… is continuing to be cold. I even texted him that I was genuinely feeling suicidal and he told me he can’t help me outside of session. Period.
So then after my latest session, I told him I’d text him what happened because I was too uncomfortable to say it. I told him I visited his sister’s grave, about the dreams, everything. I said I felt really hurt at his pullback and how it felt selfish.
He responded by gaslighting me endlessly and it absolutely crushed me furthermore. He responded as follows:
“Ok crystals and dreams? I don’t believe in them. I don’t believe that was my sister. I don’t know how I feel about you visiting her grave. I am not your brother and I can’t be your brother. And yes it was a nice gesture I guess but clearly you are focusing on the wrong thing. Let’s not talk about the weeds and the details. Let’s focus on you.” And completely shut down any further conversation about it.
In the past I have insisted and begged him to process him showing up at my apartment with me because I am still shaken up. He just always says “I never should’ve gotten involved like that but we are NOT going to talk about this ever again” and has always refused to hear how I felt about it.
He went back on vacation this past weekend and refused to take my call when I needed help, refused to text me, or anything. I called off work two days in a row because I was so devastated at his anger toward me and the gaslighting. It felt so unfair. I wanted to talk to him over the weekend because I was genuinely so hurt and felt like I truly lost him. He didn’t care.
WHERE TO GO FROM HERE?
I had an appointment in person tonight. First in person one since I told him about everything. I am embarrassed and feel so guilty that I visited his sister’s grave behind his back. It makes me feel psychotic. But at least I was honest and didn’t wait until I got caught / did not gaslight him.
I have a major surgery tomorrow and he won’t help me with my dog. I’ve gone back to my parents for now until I am recovered.
I want to tell him how hurt I am but I have tried that. He never understands. I miss him. As a brother.
I ended up going to session and he asked me why I feel off in therapy. He literally said “other than me slightly having to pull back right now what have I really done?”
I don’t know if I ever can get him to see my side or my pain in this.
FINAL THOUGHTS / MISC
I was seeing him three times a week and one day he randomly cancelled my third session, and every week after “something came up” that day and he just kept canceling. Eventually he just exploded and said “I DO NOT work that third day anymore.” Without giving me any explanation or time to adjust or heads up. Like he clearly needed a break.
I was in the hospital just now for my surgery and I wanted so badly to reach out to him for support. I couldn’t. My heart hurts knowing that I once had this brotherly love in my life that I had lost.
Even now in session he uses the analogy of “if you were my sister” or “if you were my wife” after knowing I am clearly struggling with accepting he has pulled back. He used to say I am his friend over and over and now he just acts so cold. I know he’s trying to maintain boundaries. I know. But too late. He screwed with my emotions SO much.
I have horrible, horrible OCD and my brain keeps trying to do stupid things to fix this. I also keep asking myself over and over:
1. Will he ever take my dog back if I really needed him to? (obviously I can find other pet sitters but my brain is so hung up on —— if I asked him in an emergency situation, would he refuse?)
2. Will he ever stop ignoring my texts? I’ve reached out to him about being suicidal. About being in a state of panic. Previously, he would call me and stay on the phone with me while I got through an attack. I AM NOT EXPECTING THIS. I do not expect him to be available on demand. But his SUDDEN extreme pull back makes me think that I was the one that did something wrong.
3.Does this mean he emotionally does not care about me and my situation anymore? Did he just turn his emotions off? Did he ever even care? He would make me send him a text every day listing three things I am grateful for as a means to check in. He would also randomly send me quotes from books he was reading that he thought I could relate to. All facilitated by him. All of this has randomly stopped and it makes me feel like he hates me. Is it at all possible that this is a reflection of him not caring?
4.Is his pullback a temporary extreme and will he readjust and go back to being there for me? Or is this a permanent shift, likely? Can I expect things to even out or go back to him investing care and time? Again I KNOW the focus is on me having to do that for myself. I know I CAN move on from this if needed but I really, really began to love him (PLATONICALLY like family) and having him around. It breaks me so much. It was so important to me to have him.
I have been taking major time off of work and from seeing friend or leaving my house. I have completely self isolated. Refused medical treatment against doctor’s advice. Risked my job by calling off so much. Taking a leave of absence. Become bedridden. I know it sounds like I’ve become obsessed with fixing this situation and that seems psychotic and sad. But given my history with everything I have been through, this therapist had given me hope to feel like someone had my back. Losing him feels like a major major loss that’s soul crushing. Yes I have other people and no he cannot be my focus. But this is how I feel and I cannot help it. I do not want to be shamed for it. It just freaking hurts.
Again I know the majority of people will want to come at my therapist or me for doing wrong things. I know it doesn’t seem like this, but he really isn’t intentionally manipulative or gaslight-y, he’s just trying to regulate himself.
I have grace for him. And for myself. So please, please try and respond with compassion. I don’t want to lose him. But I feel like I kind of am.
What are your overall thoughts, in the most gentle way possible? Was I wrong for telling him the truth about the grave?
submitted by 401kind to AITAH [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 01:02 AutoModerator [I HAVE] Iman Gadzhi Agency Navigator FULL updated course And 3,000+ MORE FREE courses

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https://preview.redd.it/xbbmvwk05y2b1.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=116c1a4c80219604524cc4a321c8086cdb93a5a7
if ANYONE is interested send me a message on Fiverr
==> https://bazarcom.org/Biahezacourse
NEW COURSES (Included when buying my whole collection!):
· ⭐Iman Gadzhi – Agency Navigator 2023
· ⭐Sam Ovens - Consulting Accelerator 2023
· ⭐Cole Gordon – 30 Day Closer
· ⭐Montell Gordon - Agency Transmulation
· ⭐Charlie Morgan - Easygrow Course
· ⭐Sebastian Esqueda - Ecom Revolution
· ⭐Biaheza Droppshiping Course 2023
· Andrew Tate – Courses Bundle
· Charlie Morgan - Imperium Agency
· Charlie Morgan - Gym Growth Accelerator
· Biaheza - Full Dropshipping Course 2023
· Jordan Welch - The Reveal 2023
· Savannah Sanchez - TikTok Ads Course 2023
· Iman Gadzhi - Copy Paste Agency
· Sam Ovens - UpLevel Consulting
· Miles – The FBA Roadmap + The Profit Vault
· Andrew Giorgi – Amazon Dropshipping Course
· Sebastian Esqueda – Ecom Revolution Training Program
· Luca Netz – Advanced Dropshipping 2023
· Kevin King – Freedom Ticket 3.0
· Jordan Platten – LearnAds – Facebook Ads Pro 2023
· Miles – The FBA Roadmap + The Profit Vault
· Dan Vas – Ecom Freedom Shopify Blueprint 2023
· Alexander J.A Cortes - WiFi Money Machine
· Kody Knows - Native Mastery
· Bastiaan Slot - Six Figure Consulting
· Kaibax - Centurion agency
· Joe Robert - Print On Demand Accelerator
· Ryan Hogue - Ryan's Method Dropshipped POD
· Kevin Zhang - Ecommerce Millionaire Mastery
· Ryan Lee – 48 Hour Continuity
· [METHOD] ⚡️TikTok Algorithm Domination Skyrocket your engagement TODAY Updated 2023✨
· Troy Ericson – Email List Management Certification
· Larry Goins – Filthy Riches Home Study Course
· Ry Schwartz – Automated Intimacy
· Patrick Bet-David – All Access Bundle
· Andrea Unger – Master the Code & Go LIVE
· Jon Benson – 10 Minute Sales Letter
· Alen Sultanic – Automatic Clients & Bonuses
· Taylor Welch – Cashflow for Consultants
· Akeem Reed – Slingshot Rental Blueprint
· The Futur Greg Gunn – Illustration for Designers
· Trading180 – Supply And Demand Zone Trading Course
· Jim McKelvey (Foundr) – How To Build An Unbeatable Business
· Master of AI Copy – Copy School by Copyhackers
· Copyhackers – Copy School 2023
· Matei – Gann Master Forex Course
· YOYAO Hsueh – Topical Maps Unlocked
· Tyler McMurray – Facts Verse Youtube Automation Course
· Ashton Shanks – 7 Day Copywriting Challenge Featuring ChatGPT
· Rene Lacad – Rockstar Marketing Blueprint
· Top Trade Tools – Hedge Fund Trender
· Brandi Mowles – Conversion For Clients
· Glen Allsopp – SEO Blueprint 2 (DETAILED)
· Trading Busters – Prop Trading Formula Course
· Sam Woods – The AI Copywriting Workshop (Complete Edition)
· Brian Anderson – Recovery Profit System
· LOW COMPETITION KEYWORDS IN MINUTES ⚡ 70+ REVIEWS ✅ BONUS PDF WORTH $200+
· Devon Brown – Easiest System Ever
· Duston McGroarty – St. Patrick’s Day 2023 Live Event
· Dan Wardrope – Click & Deploy Sales Android
· Lost Boys Academy – How To Make Life Changing Money With OnlyFans!
· WealthFRX Trading Mastery Course 2.0
· TOM & HARRY – Digital Culture Academy
· 100+ Cold Email Templates
· [METHOD] ✅ Make Real Cash with Auto Blogging ⛔Get $1199 Worth of Resources ❌ CUSTOMIZED SECRET PROCESS⚡DONE FOR YOU SITE ⭐ Unlimited Niche Opportunity & So on
· Tobias Dahlberg – Brand Mastery
· Raul Gonzalez – Day Trading Institution 2.0
· Rasmus & Christian Mikkelsen –Impact Academy 2023
· [METHOD] ☢️ The Quick eBay Money Loophole Guide ☢️
· Apteros Trading – March 2023 Intensive
· Rob Lennon – Zero to 10k Twitter Accelerator
· Rob Lennon – Next-Level Prompt Engineering with AI
· Rasmus & Christian Mikkelsen – NEW Audiobook Income Academy Download
· Grow and Convert – Customers From Content
· Charles Miller – The Writersonal Branding Playbook
· Kaye Putnam – Convert with a Quiz
· Forex Mentor – London Close Trade 2.0
· Chase Reiner – Fortune Bots Update 1
· Andrew Ethan Zeng – Social Marketing Mastery
· [Method] Upload FULL, 100% Unedited Copyrighted Videos on Youtube! Content ID DESTROYER!
· Digital Daily – Top 150 ChatGPT Prompts to Make your Life Easy
· Patek Fynnip – Psychology Course
· Thomas Frank – Creator’s Companion (Ultimate Brain Edition)
· [METHOD] ⚡ See the MAGIC of Bulk Posting ✨ Untapped Method ✅ [ BONUS ChatGpt and Affiliate list Pdf]✅
· ⭕️ YouTube Content Machine – Unlimited FREE traffic for CPA – Fully Automated Method ⭕️
· Jakob Greenfeld – Scraping The Web For Fun and Profit
· Adrian Twarog – OpenAI Template Starter Kit for ChatGPT / GPT3
· The Secret Merchants List of Over 2000+ Dropshippers and Amazon FBA Suppliers Based in The US
· Top Trade Tools – Top Swing Trader Pro
· Charlie Houpert – Charisma University 2023
· ▶️ [METHOD + GUIDE] ✅ Make Money ✅ with Kindle Books ⚠️ Even if You Can’t Write ⚠️ [STEP-BY-STEP] ⚡ NO INVESTMENT REQUIRED! ⚡
· Charlie Morgan – Easy Grow
· Nina Clapperton – Jasper AI Course for Bloggers
· Travis Stephenson – Simple Profit System
· Manny Khoshbin – Real Estate Starter Program
· Tanner Henkel & Jerrod Harlan – 7-Figure Email Machine
· [METHOD] Stop Wasting Money on AI Writers Train And Fine-Tune Your Own AI For Free With No Code ⚡⚡⚡Real Method & Practice Examples ⚡⚡
· Creator Hooks – YouTube Title Mastery
· Thomas Frank – Creator’s Companion (Ultimate Brain Edition)
· Sean Dollwet – Royalty Hero
· Jason Bell – Birthday Marketing Formula
· NXT Level FX – Investors Domain
· [METHOD] ⏩ My ETSY $40K~ Passive Income 2023 + HOT Products (Earning Proof) ⏪ Make Money No Marketing Easy $40K~ Guide FOR NOOBS ✅
· Rob Jones & Gerry Cramer – Profit Singularity Ultra Edition 2022 (AI & ChatGPT)
· Cody Wittick & Taylor Lagace – The Influencer Marketing Blueprint
· ⚡️➡️$390/Week BLUEPRINT+PROOF✅Scalable Method❤️Amazon to eBay Dropship✅
· Kody Ashmore – Simpler Trading – Drama Free Day Trades ELITE
· Youri van Hofwegen – YouTube Search Automation
· Montell Gordon – Agency Transmutation
· Csaba Borzasi – Breakthrough Conversions Academy
· Tim Denning – Twitter Badassery
· Geoff Cudd – AI Writing Course for Bloggers & Digital Marketers
· RED CPA FORMULA – UNTAPPED UNDERGROUND CPA SYSTEM
· BowtiedCocoon – Zero to $100k: Landing Any Tech Sales Role
· Holly Starks – Make LINK BUILDING Great Again!
· Mike Warren – Deeds4Cash
· BITCOIN BRITS – The Crypto Course
· Max Gilles – ⚡️☄️ UHQ Leak ❤️CPA JACKER – Epic CPA Blueprint✅⚡️
· Aidan Booth & Steve Clayton – 123 Profit Update 9
· Christina Galbato – The Influencer Bootcamp
· John Thornhill – Ambassador Program
· [Sales] 999+ Ultimate ChatGPT Prompts To Copy & Paste (250+ tasks)
· Pollinate Trading – Curvy Trading System
· Content Mavericks – The Greatest Hits Content System
· Andriy Boychuk – Flowium – Klaviyo Mastery 2.0
· Dagobert Renouf – How To Dominate Twitter (Advanced Growth Bundle)
· Darius Lukas – ⭐ The Marketer’s Bible to ChatGPT ✅ 1000+ ChatGPT Prompts to Copy, Paste & Scale
· Billy Gene – 5 Day A.I. Crash Course for Marketers
· Alex Cattoni – Posse Eye Brand Voice Challenge Program
· Casey Zander – YouTube Fame Game Blueprint
· Harlan Kilstein – Midjourney Mastery
· Shawna Newman – YouTube for Niche Sites
· [Marketing] 1099+ Ultimate ChatGPT Marketing Prompts To Copy & Paste (200+ tasks)
· Karen Foo – Star Traders Forex Intermediate Course
· TheMacLyf – Hive Mind & Masterclass (Onlyfans Course)
· Brittany Lewis – Top Seller Secret
· Dan Henry – Facebook Ads for Entrepreneur
· Russ Horn – Ultra Blue Forex
· Scott Phillips – Crypto Salary System
· Roland Frasier – AI Powered Expert Apprentice + Update 1
· Roger & Barry – Give Academy 1k/Day Platinum Mastermind [COMPLETE with LATEST UPDATE]
· Bretty Curry (Smart Marketer) – Smart Amazon Ecommerce
· Steven Dux – Traders Edge 2023
· Aidan Booth & Steve Clayton – 123 Profit
· Allie Bjerk – Tiny Offer Lab
· Dicke Bush – Generate 10x More Content Using AI
· Mateusz Rutkowski – New Money Blueprint
· Smart Raja Concepts (SRC) – Forex 101
· Chase Reiner – Short Form Riches Bootcamp 2023 – AI ChatGPT Bot Update 3
· Chase Reiner – AI Profits
· Travis Sago – Cold Outreach & Prospecting AMA Offer (Best Value with All Bonuses)
· Live Traders – Professional Trading Strategies
· Allan Dib – The 1-Page Marketing Plan Course
· Dan Koe – Digital Economics Masters Degree
· The Trading Guide – The Gold Box Strategy
· The Complete XAUUSD GOLD Forex Scalping System On Real Trading Account
if ANYONE is interested send me a message on Fiverr
==> https://bazarcom.org/Biahezacourse
submitted by AutoModerator to NewSMMA2023 [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 01:00 canriderollercoaster Labral Tear & Facet Arthropathy

26F 5’1 135 lbs. with several issues that have developed and/or been diagnosed in the last year.
Physical Conditions/symptoms: Diverticular Disease - I get chronic flares Interstitial cystitis Assumed endometriosis IBS-C Chronic migraines Hypermobility Costochondritis
I’ve had chronic joint pain and weakness for upwards of 10 years, as well as SI joint pain that I attributed to an assumed bulging disc (normal xray) I had 5 years ago - from picking up a shoe box. Last year my hands and feet also started getting really painful flares of becoming very cold even in warm weather, tingling, pain and swelling, though my finger tips only turn red, not blue.
The first things that started were pain in my knees and ankles that from research seems most likely to be enthesitis. Had X-rays done on both knees at 15 that showed “moderate effusion” but nothing was done.
PCP and I have thought EDS or possibly autoimmune. Rheumatologist tried to dismiss me as having fibromyalgia after a blood panel and one sacrum Xray - both came back normal. Later on in August 2022 I suddenly developed in tense right hip pain (no injury) that has never subsided and intensified my back pain. Again, X-rays came back normal.
After 8 months and a lot of pushing I was referred to orthopedics and finally got an MRI of my right hip and lumbar region. My results I just got show a labral tear as well as facet Arthropathy with effusion and bone spurs in L4-L5. I assumed the Arthropathy was a result of my bulging disc “injury,” but have been told that injuries don’t cause that? Is that true?
Now that I have tangible radiologic proof of something mechanical going on in my back and hip, I’m convinced this can’t just be fibro (though I agree I could still have it along with something else) since I was told it is not inflammatory or degenerative. I want to advocate for myself to try to find a root cause again. Is my line of thinking reasonable?
My lumbar MRI did not do imaging of my sacrum - should I tell my doctor I’d like to order one? My pain is directly on both SI joints and they feel swollen at times. My rheumatologist has not wanted to order an MRI, should I ask my ortho? PCP? Or get a new rheumatologist? Would it be worth it to try to pursue an MRI on both my sacrum and knees?
Thanks!
submitted by canriderollercoaster to ChronicPain [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 00:52 Fun-Degree-2307 KRS-One sucks?

I was talking to a friend about some of the Golden Age HipHop greats, when I brought up how much I fuck w KRS-One and his music. Dude then tells me that KRS, well, sucks, and that he isn’t and never was a skilled lyricist. He did acknowledge , though, that he is an absolute pioneer..
I wanna know what you guys think about that.. Is KRS as great at rapping as he is at promoting the essence of hip hop (Temple of Hip Hop, wrote some books and stuff), or does he actually suck? Note, im talking about how he ranks with all rappers , not just golden age rappers. Personally, as I’ve heard someone else put it, I think he’s rap royalty ..
submitted by Fun-Degree-2307 to rap [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 00:23 RockTheMicRight Tough Year, First ER Tomorrow, My Story So Far

TW: High-Risk Pregnancy, Live Birth, Gene Variant, Pregnancy Loss, Mental Health, The Longest Post Ever
Hello friends, I'm pretty new here. Been lurking & learning from you. I have been a single mom of a child with special needs for over 13 years. Having another child (and hopefully a healthy partnership) has been the deepest desire of my heart for a long time. Been doing the work in talk therapy for decades to be able to be a healthy parent & partner. Started the testing & pre-reqs for egg-freezing a few years ago. At the time, money was a big obstacle. Also, Covid SUCKED. Fast forward to 2022-2023, which became one of the hardest years of my life, & I'm feeling an unprecedented level of global uncertainty. Helped two family members through major health crises last year, had skin cancer, lost a loved one, have had my own worsening health issues. I have been clinging onto hope & faith. Tomorrow is my first ER, & after a virtual appt with my doc today I feel discouraged.
Some background: When I was 25 in 2009, I left an abusive relationship & 2 weeks later found out I was pregnant. Around 10 weeks gestation, a cystic hygroma (NT) was discovered. My son was given a 20% chance of being born healthy & alive. It was a high-risk pregnancy, steeped in uncertainty & specialist appts. The diagnostic technology was new, very little data. His odds of survival went up as the pregnancy progressed, but it was still overwhelmingly uncertain for the entire 39w5d. Faith. Went through it all as a SMBC. Every weekly ultrasound, I held my breath until I saw his heartbeat & measurements. He was born, he was a beautiful baby, & he is currently a beautiful 13-year-old with a variety of special needs. He is also the king of dance parties & dad jokes & loving his mom.
It has mostly been the two of us as a little family for his whole life. It's been remarkable & also very, very hard. For 13 years, we didn't know the reason for his special needs. In early 2022, I got our exome results. His father & I each had a variant on the same gene that had caused his rare genetic disorder. For the first time in 13 years, I had an answer. It also finally felt possible for me to one day have a child without special needs. Hope.
A month after these results, I reconnected with my friend of 20+ years. We fell in love, values aligned, deepened friendship, had a whirlwind romance, got married. My first marriage at 38. It felt divine & also almost Divine. Finally, a love story of my own with someone I thought I knew so well. Hope. We agreed on wanting to have children together down the road. "We can have five," he said. "Whoa, slow your roll," I said. He had some fertility coverage through work, which was a huge blessing for us. We embarked on the journey of getting his genes tested, my HSG etc, & scheduling IVF for embryo banking. A month before starting IVF, we found out I was pregnant. Six weeks later, we found out our baby didn't have a heartbeat.
To my friends who have been through MCs, my heart aches for you. I had no idea about everything MC is until I went through it. And I am so so so so sorry for those of you who've been through it too. My MMC was a brutal, drawn-out experience, meds didn't work, surgery, grief, confusion, devastation. And in the very thick of it, in the deepest muck of it all, my husband/dear friend suddenly decided that he didn't want to have a child with me anymore.
I thought he may come around but he didn't. It began an unraveling over time of nearly everything I knew him to be. Lies, changing values, anger, gaslighting, abusive behavior...it all systematically broke me down, broke my heart, & turned my world upside down. We are separated now. I've been in intensive mental health treatment, striving to heal & to learn, working on getting my self & my life back. Faith. Knowing my deep desire for another child & because of my age, I felt compelled to finally take the egg-freezing leap. Even though I'm not in the best place mentally/spiritually/emotionally, I do have a solid support system right now & I can't really afford to wait. Also, when our divorce is finalized, I will lose what's left of my fertility coverage.
The PRESSURE on us women due to our changing bodies or our bodily limitations & the "geriatric" BS & the level of perseverance we have to muster & the realities we have to face to move forward toward what we ache for....
All that to say, I've been trying to do the damn thing. All the things, really. I wish I'd known then what I know now, but I have learned some lessons along the way that are now sewn into my heart. There have been some good moments. My baseline AFC was a surprising 29 (up from 14 last fall). Hope. 11ish of my little follicles have been growing. Faith. Gratitude & relief that my follicles have been responding & progressing. HCG trigger shot last night; I survived the bizarre bodily sensations & intense lightheadedness.
However, today when I talked to my doctor & broached the (vulnerable) subject of a possible sperm donor for future cycles & embryos, she basically shut me down. She lamented about my separation & said maybe my husband will change his mind. She threw up legal roadblocks & psychological testing criteria & hoops to jump through to diminish the option of a donor. She talked about my low yield & how we don't want to split up my mature eggs if we don't have many to start with. Ummm, my first ER is tomorrow, we don't even know my yield, & I honestly have been feeling deeply grateful that my advanced maternal ovaries & follicles have been working so hard to come through for me. Her vibe & responses caught me so off guard.
I'm just tired. I'm new here, new to egg-freezing. But I'm not new. I've been in the maternal-fetal specialists world & the fertility world & the wanting a healthy child when my body won't cooperate world for a while now. I have been clinging onto hope & faith, & I am EXHAUSTED.
My story is complex & nuanced, as are so many stories here. This group helps me feel that I'm not alone. Thank you for allowing me to take up space here. Thank you for being here, so I know I'm not alone in this. You, friend, are not alone either. We can be tired together. When we are weary, we can have hope for one another & faith in each other. I just need to know that I will get through this. Sometimes we need to say out loud or even scream, WE WILL GET THROUGH THIS. 💜
submitted by RockTheMicRight to IVF [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 00:16 light80 dontheorist - Into The Light [Hip-Hop] (2022)

dontheorist - Into The Light [Hip-Hop] (2022) submitted by light80 to listentothis [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 00:02 AutoModerator [I HAVE] Iman Gadzhi Agency Navigator FULL updated course And 3,000+ MORE FREE courses

[I HAVE] Iman Gadzhi Agency Navigator FULL updated course And 3,000+ MORE FREE courses

https://preview.redd.it/xbbmvwk05y2b1.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=116c1a4c80219604524cc4a321c8086cdb93a5a7
if ANYONE is interested send me a message on Fiverr
==> https://bazarcom.org/Biahezacourse
NEW COURSES (Included when buying my whole collection!):
· ⭐Iman Gadzhi – Agency Navigator 2023
· ⭐Sam Ovens - Consulting Accelerator 2023
· ⭐Cole Gordon – 30 Day Closer
· ⭐Montell Gordon - Agency Transmulation
· ⭐Charlie Morgan - Easygrow Course
· ⭐Sebastian Esqueda - Ecom Revolution
· ⭐Biaheza Droppshiping Course 2023
· Andrew Tate – Courses Bundle
· Charlie Morgan - Imperium Agency
· Charlie Morgan - Gym Growth Accelerator
· Biaheza - Full Dropshipping Course 2023
· Jordan Welch - The Reveal 2023
· Savannah Sanchez - TikTok Ads Course 2023
· Iman Gadzhi - Copy Paste Agency
· Sam Ovens - UpLevel Consulting
· Miles – The FBA Roadmap + The Profit Vault
· Andrew Giorgi – Amazon Dropshipping Course
· Sebastian Esqueda – Ecom Revolution Training Program
· Luca Netz – Advanced Dropshipping 2023
· Kevin King – Freedom Ticket 3.0
· Jordan Platten – LearnAds – Facebook Ads Pro 2023
· Miles – The FBA Roadmap + The Profit Vault
· Dan Vas – Ecom Freedom Shopify Blueprint 2023
· Alexander J.A Cortes - WiFi Money Machine
· Kody Knows - Native Mastery
· Bastiaan Slot - Six Figure Consulting
· Kaibax - Centurion agency
· Joe Robert - Print On Demand Accelerator
· Ryan Hogue - Ryan's Method Dropshipped POD
· Kevin Zhang - Ecommerce Millionaire Mastery
· Ryan Lee – 48 Hour Continuity
· [METHOD] ⚡️TikTok Algorithm Domination Skyrocket your engagement TODAY Updated 2023✨
· Troy Ericson – Email List Management Certification
· Larry Goins – Filthy Riches Home Study Course
· Ry Schwartz – Automated Intimacy
· Patrick Bet-David – All Access Bundle
· Andrea Unger – Master the Code & Go LIVE
· Jon Benson – 10 Minute Sales Letter
· Alen Sultanic – Automatic Clients & Bonuses
· Taylor Welch – Cashflow for Consultants
· Akeem Reed – Slingshot Rental Blueprint
· The Futur Greg Gunn – Illustration for Designers
· Trading180 – Supply And Demand Zone Trading Course
· Jim McKelvey (Foundr) – How To Build An Unbeatable Business
· Master of AI Copy – Copy School by Copyhackers
· Copyhackers – Copy School 2023
· Matei – Gann Master Forex Course
· YOYAO Hsueh – Topical Maps Unlocked
· Tyler McMurray – Facts Verse Youtube Automation Course
· Ashton Shanks – 7 Day Copywriting Challenge Featuring ChatGPT
· Rene Lacad – Rockstar Marketing Blueprint
· Top Trade Tools – Hedge Fund Trender
· Brandi Mowles – Conversion For Clients
· Glen Allsopp – SEO Blueprint 2 (DETAILED)
· Trading Busters – Prop Trading Formula Course
· Sam Woods – The AI Copywriting Workshop (Complete Edition)
· Brian Anderson – Recovery Profit System
· LOW COMPETITION KEYWORDS IN MINUTES ⚡ 70+ REVIEWS ✅ BONUS PDF WORTH $200+
· Devon Brown – Easiest System Ever
· Duston McGroarty – St. Patrick’s Day 2023 Live Event
· Dan Wardrope – Click & Deploy Sales Android
· Lost Boys Academy – How To Make Life Changing Money With OnlyFans!
· WealthFRX Trading Mastery Course 2.0
· TOM & HARRY – Digital Culture Academy
· 100+ Cold Email Templates
· [METHOD] ✅ Make Real Cash with Auto Blogging ⛔Get $1199 Worth of Resources ❌ CUSTOMIZED SECRET PROCESS⚡DONE FOR YOU SITE ⭐ Unlimited Niche Opportunity & So on
· Tobias Dahlberg – Brand Mastery
· Raul Gonzalez – Day Trading Institution 2.0
· Rasmus & Christian Mikkelsen –Impact Academy 2023
· [METHOD] ☢️ The Quick eBay Money Loophole Guide ☢️
· Apteros Trading – March 2023 Intensive
· Rob Lennon – Zero to 10k Twitter Accelerator
· Rob Lennon – Next-Level Prompt Engineering with AI
· Rasmus & Christian Mikkelsen – NEW Audiobook Income Academy Download
· Grow and Convert – Customers From Content
· Charles Miller – The Writersonal Branding Playbook
· Kaye Putnam – Convert with a Quiz
· Forex Mentor – London Close Trade 2.0
· Chase Reiner – Fortune Bots Update 1
· Andrew Ethan Zeng – Social Marketing Mastery
· [Method] Upload FULL, 100% Unedited Copyrighted Videos on Youtube! Content ID DESTROYER!
· Digital Daily – Top 150 ChatGPT Prompts to Make your Life Easy
· Patek Fynnip – Psychology Course
· Thomas Frank – Creator’s Companion (Ultimate Brain Edition)
· [METHOD] ⚡ See the MAGIC of Bulk Posting ✨ Untapped Method ✅ [ BONUS ChatGpt and Affiliate list Pdf]✅
· ⭕️ YouTube Content Machine – Unlimited FREE traffic for CPA – Fully Automated Method ⭕️
· Jakob Greenfeld – Scraping The Web For Fun and Profit
· Adrian Twarog – OpenAI Template Starter Kit for ChatGPT / GPT3
· The Secret Merchants List of Over 2000+ Dropshippers and Amazon FBA Suppliers Based in The US
· Top Trade Tools – Top Swing Trader Pro
· Charlie Houpert – Charisma University 2023
· ▶️ [METHOD + GUIDE] ✅ Make Money ✅ with Kindle Books ⚠️ Even if You Can’t Write ⚠️ [STEP-BY-STEP] ⚡ NO INVESTMENT REQUIRED! ⚡
· Charlie Morgan – Easy Grow
· Nina Clapperton – Jasper AI Course for Bloggers
· Travis Stephenson – Simple Profit System
· Manny Khoshbin – Real Estate Starter Program
· Tanner Henkel & Jerrod Harlan – 7-Figure Email Machine
· [METHOD] Stop Wasting Money on AI Writers Train And Fine-Tune Your Own AI For Free With No Code ⚡⚡⚡Real Method & Practice Examples ⚡⚡
· Creator Hooks – YouTube Title Mastery
· Thomas Frank – Creator’s Companion (Ultimate Brain Edition)
· Sean Dollwet – Royalty Hero
· Jason Bell – Birthday Marketing Formula
· NXT Level FX – Investors Domain
· [METHOD] ⏩ My ETSY $40K~ Passive Income 2023 + HOT Products (Earning Proof) ⏪ Make Money No Marketing Easy $40K~ Guide FOR NOOBS ✅
· Rob Jones & Gerry Cramer – Profit Singularity Ultra Edition 2022 (AI & ChatGPT)
· Cody Wittick & Taylor Lagace – The Influencer Marketing Blueprint
· ⚡️➡️$390/Week BLUEPRINT+PROOF✅Scalable Method❤️Amazon to eBay Dropship✅
· Kody Ashmore – Simpler Trading – Drama Free Day Trades ELITE
· Youri van Hofwegen – YouTube Search Automation
· Montell Gordon – Agency Transmutation
· Csaba Borzasi – Breakthrough Conversions Academy
· Tim Denning – Twitter Badassery
· Geoff Cudd – AI Writing Course for Bloggers & Digital Marketers
· RED CPA FORMULA – UNTAPPED UNDERGROUND CPA SYSTEM
· BowtiedCocoon – Zero to $100k: Landing Any Tech Sales Role
· Holly Starks – Make LINK BUILDING Great Again!
· Mike Warren – Deeds4Cash
· BITCOIN BRITS – The Crypto Course
· Max Gilles – ⚡️☄️ UHQ Leak ❤️CPA JACKER – Epic CPA Blueprint✅⚡️
· Aidan Booth & Steve Clayton – 123 Profit Update 9
· Christina Galbato – The Influencer Bootcamp
· John Thornhill – Ambassador Program
· [Sales] 999+ Ultimate ChatGPT Prompts To Copy & Paste (250+ tasks)
· Pollinate Trading – Curvy Trading System
· Content Mavericks – The Greatest Hits Content System
· Andriy Boychuk – Flowium – Klaviyo Mastery 2.0
· Dagobert Renouf – How To Dominate Twitter (Advanced Growth Bundle)
· Darius Lukas – ⭐ The Marketer’s Bible to ChatGPT ✅ 1000+ ChatGPT Prompts to Copy, Paste & Scale
· Billy Gene – 5 Day A.I. Crash Course for Marketers
· Alex Cattoni – Posse Eye Brand Voice Challenge Program
· Casey Zander – YouTube Fame Game Blueprint
· Harlan Kilstein – Midjourney Mastery
· Shawna Newman – YouTube for Niche Sites
· [Marketing] 1099+ Ultimate ChatGPT Marketing Prompts To Copy & Paste (200+ tasks)
· Karen Foo – Star Traders Forex Intermediate Course
· TheMacLyf – Hive Mind & Masterclass (Onlyfans Course)
· Brittany Lewis – Top Seller Secret
· Dan Henry – Facebook Ads for Entrepreneur
· Russ Horn – Ultra Blue Forex
· Scott Phillips – Crypto Salary System
· Roland Frasier – AI Powered Expert Apprentice + Update 1
· Roger & Barry – Give Academy 1k/Day Platinum Mastermind [COMPLETE with LATEST UPDATE]
· Bretty Curry (Smart Marketer) – Smart Amazon Ecommerce
· Steven Dux – Traders Edge 2023
· Aidan Booth & Steve Clayton – 123 Profit
· Allie Bjerk – Tiny Offer Lab
· Dicke Bush – Generate 10x More Content Using AI
· Mateusz Rutkowski – New Money Blueprint
· Smart Raja Concepts (SRC) – Forex 101
· Chase Reiner – Short Form Riches Bootcamp 2023 – AI ChatGPT Bot Update 3
· Chase Reiner – AI Profits
· Travis Sago – Cold Outreach & Prospecting AMA Offer (Best Value with All Bonuses)
· Live Traders – Professional Trading Strategies
· Allan Dib – The 1-Page Marketing Plan Course
· Dan Koe – Digital Economics Masters Degree
· The Trading Guide – The Gold Box Strategy
· The Complete XAUUSD GOLD Forex Scalping System On Real Trading Account
if ANYONE is interested send me a message on Fiverr
==> https://bazarcom.org/Biahezacourse
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2023.06.02 23:59 CazOnReddit Alright, Let's Talk About the 3rd Pick & a Potential Siakam Trade With Portland

Alright, Let's Talk About the 3rd Pick & a Potential Siakam Trade With Portland
So have you heard that the Blazers are looking to shop around the 3rd pick and Anfernee Simons for a star forward? Yeah, let's finally get into this.
The Blazers lucked themselves into a rather unique position, both with the pick they got - having jumped from 5th to 3rd in the draft - and with the team who managed to get the 2nd pick being the Charlotte Hornets who are likely to draft forward Brandon Miller over G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson, with Scoot seemingly falling to 3.
This would make Scoot the 2nd young guard the Blazers recently drafted and their 3rd under 25 guard to play next to Dame...if they weren't trying to shop the pick around.
They have a perfect opportunity to finally do a rebuild...and yet, here we are with yet another rumor about the Blazers trying to build around Dame and get him the help they've left him without for...what, 8 seasons and counting? Like the Rockets who are alleged to be interested in moving the 4th pick, I don't think the Blazers really should be trying to do a two timelines, pseudo rebuild while contending around Lillard.
I also don't think the package they can put together is as great as it's often hyped up to be. As we'll get into, a package around Anfernee and the 3rd pick plus a player or pick or two is quite decent in a vacuum but it certainly isn't good enough to get to get you that Top 10-15 player in the league who can singlehandedly win you a series - if not, a championship. It certainly isn't enough to outbid the likes of the Jazz or, more significantly, the Thunder who may opt for a splash in the offseason as their core develops into a young, hungry playoff team with some greater veteran presence around them.
I'm just going to say it: If Portland really is saying "time's up" and putting together one last effort to compete against Dame, they need to do more than get Siakam, O.G., Karl-Anthony Towns or whichever star's name pops up in rumors leading up to the draft. Not to say those players won't improve the team, but none of them - and yes i'm including Siakam - are good enough to elevate a former lottery team like the Blazers over the past 2 seasons to a Top 3 seed, let alone guarantee a championship.
A duo of Siakam and Dame, Dame and KAT, etc. can be part of one's core championship team but they need the right supporting pieces around them in order to win. To put it mildly, the Blazers...do not have that. Jusuf Nurkic has seen significant regression as a defender and the bench is one of the few to make the Raptors bench look like a bastion of basketball greatness. It shows on the floor and statistically, and it's a large reason why the Blazers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league over the past, one of the worst when it comes to rebounding and in general being near the bottom of the Western Conference before they pulled the plug on their most recent season in an attempt to tank for a Top 4 pick.
If the Blazers are actually going to commit to Dame, they need to engage in a paradigm shift this offseason. Rework the starting 5, the bench and go all-in getting Loyalty McLoyal the team he should have had around him for years instead of endlessly running it back with minor tweaks to who his #2 is.
That means either getting your pick back from the Bulls and shopping the 4 firsts/3 swaps you can or removing the protections and dealing out the 3/3 you would have to improve the roster. Don't just get Siakam, KAT or whoever and set them up to fail with Damian because it's not fair to either player to put them in that situation.
Go after Buddy Hield, see if Myles Turner or Clint Capela are going to be available, or if the Wolves are desperate enough to sign and trade Naz Reid to recoup some assets after the costly Gobert trade - if not, try signing him with the full MLE. And you don't stop there! However they plan to shake up the roster in this hypothetical scenario, they need to significantly improve the center position/rotation and their bench to give Dame an actual chance of winning a ring with what few years left they have in his prime.
Also fire Chauncey Billups, he's a bottom 3 coach and the only reason I can't say he is not the worst is because I can't say the Raptors coach will be objectively worse/better without knowing who will head either team. He isn't 3rd, that's for sure.
But anyway that's the Blazers prerogative. What exactly could the Raptors see in a potential pick that, presumably, revolves around Pascal Siakam?
Since I can be a bit of a wordy writer, i'm going to add some TL;DR sections for each playepick discussed in this little piece for those that want a quick breakdown.
Note: This is not a trade proposal; this is a compilation of the assets and players who could be included in a trade for Pascal Siakam. Additionally, this is not an endorsement of trading Pascal Siakam, etc. in a deal with the Portland Trailblazers.
Anfernee Simons
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The main player who's been the subject of a contentious discussion between Blazers fans and Raptors fans. Whether you think he's overrated, underrated or somewhere inbetween, it is undeniable that Anfernee Simons would have to be included in the trade at minimum.
I can't speak for the Blazers and I won't pretend to speak for all Raptors fans so let me just say this: I like Anfernee Simons. He's one of the more exciting players in the league under 25 even if he doesn't have the same ceiling as a guy like Zion or fellow player nicknamed "Ant" Anthony Edwards.
A borderline All-Star guard with a combination of shooting prowess and explosiveness, he had a breakout season in 2021/22 when Dame went down due to an injury and thus became the Blazers lead point guard in his absence. He's a genuine 3-level scorer who can splash from outside, pressure the rim for a high-flying dunk and he's effective in the midrange too. If nothing else, it cannot be overstated how nice it would be for this team to have another player who's a reliable, 38.7% from 3 volume shooter on a roster so thoroughly lacking in outside shooting
And before you say it, yes, Anfernee Simons is a point guard. This isn't a case like CJ where his skillset is that of a 2 who can do some playmaking but shouldn't run your offense, Simons does have some issues with dribbling the air out of the ball before making a pass, but he is a point guard. He isn't a typical point, operating more as a shoot-first point like Lillard, but he's still capable of cracking out a notable number of assists while getting buckets; he dished out 6 dimes a game with nearly 28 points in the games he's played without Dame as the lead point.
All 11 of them last year.
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Yeah, you might have seen some posts or stats online of what Simons has done without Damian Lillard; in his breakout season of 2021/22, the Anferno was putting up a similar number of assists and cracked 20 points per game, albeit over a more significant sample size of 30 games. And in 2022/23, Anfernee Simons put up 27.9/2.9/5.7 (2.4 turnovers so an AST/TO of 2.38:1 which is solid) while shooting a staggering 41% from 3 on 11 3s.
Those numbers are impressive in a vacuum; his true shooting of 62% is especially notable. However, they require some context and should be taken with an enormous grain of salt.
For one, it's a very small sample size over a lengthy period of the season where teams haven't had to plan for Simons to be the main guard to focus their defense on. He's still the 2nd option so it's not like there's no film watching or the like, but if Anfernee Simons permanently becomes the lead point guard of a team, opposing teams will gameplan around him and his weaknesses more significantly than the very few times where he's asked to be the lead ballhandler in Dame's absence.
His 2021/22 stats, while still a limited overall sample size, do suggest he'll be able to dish out a similar number of dimes as the lead guard (Dame had been ruled out due to injury during the season so teams did have to gameplan around the Ant for a large portion of the season instead of a handful of games scattered throughout the season) and he still has room to grow as a playmaker but once again, it was only a sample size of 30 games so it is hard to draw much out from the games he played.
Speaking of drawing conclusions from said sample size: Yes the Blazers went 4-7 within that 11 game sample size - and bear in mind this sample included games where the Blazers were still trying to contend while facing a variety of teams i.e. not every team was a playoff or contender. That isn't great, however, Ant was generally not the main reason they lost since the 2022/23 Blazers as a whole were pretty terrible all year, even before they blatantly tanked. The same is also true of his breakout year when the Blazers lost Lillard due to injury, they just weren't a good team.
If there is a point of contention around Simons that one can draw from his past 2 seasons, it's his defense which...it's bad.
It's really bad.
He's improved this season on that end to the point where i'd say he's a better defender than Dame - even if his overall defensive rating doesn't support this, the eye test does - but that's like saying Spencer Dinwiddie is a better defender than Trae Young. While Chauncey Billups hasn't been doing either one of Portland's guard any favors, it doesn't change the fact that being better than one of the worst defenders in the league is not an accomplishment to be proud of. All coaching issues aside, Simons is still a notable negative on that end of the floor. He has a propensity for losing his man via ball watching, he's not great at closing out on the perimeter and he's not a lane disruptor by any means. It's not impossible for him to improve as a defender - he's 6'3 with a 6'9 wingspan and much of his defensive weaknesses come from a lack of discipline - but as of right now when his shots aren't falling he's a major liability on the court and his flaws on defense were not well hidden when paired next to another notably poor defender in Dame.
There are a couple of other habits that Simons needs to address - he could stand to be less trigger happy as a scorer and work more on his playmaking given all the promise he's shown in that area - but that's the main issue with Simons. He's a very skilled guard with a similar approach to the game as Dame on both ends of the floor. And we all know Dame isn't locking down the opposing team's point.
Does Anfernee Simons seem like he'll become a guard on the level of Dame? No but that's a ridiculously high bar to hold him to, especially with the limited opportunities he had and will continue to have when he's behind Dame in the guard pecking order. Anfernee is a good player who often shows glimmers of true greatness on offense but whose defense (or lack thereof) is going to require very careful teambuilding to limit exploiting said defense in the playoffs. Perhaps he'll need to be the full-time point to fully achieve his potential as a playmaker but while he doesn't scream All-NBA caliber, he's someone you can easily see eking out a couple of All-Star nods at his peak and is, at worst, a staring-caliber guard. As for whether he can be the lead of a championship contender...we'll get to that when we talk about the pick he'd come with.
TL;DR - Anfernee Simons is an intriguing young player with upside as an explosive, shoot-first PG but one whose poor defense does mean the team's starting lineup/bench has to be built around carefully to account for his current (and likely ongoing throughout his career) weaknesses.
3rd Pick
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It's whomever is left from Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller. Maybe you trade down to 4 for some more assets if you're a believer in Amen Thompson, maybe you take Amen if you think he's the best player available and the Rockets won't negotiate for Scoot/Miller but yeah, it's one of those three via the 3rd overall pick.
Before we get into the players, I do want to briefly mention that I actually did a post a while ago on a different sub going over trades involving the 3rd pick and to put it bluntly: The 3rd pick has good value but it doesn't have as much value on its own and trades involving the 3rd pick for an All-Star or even All-NBA caliber player are very rare.
The closest trade to what the Blazers would want in return was in 2000 where the Atlanta Hawks traded the 3rd overall pick to the Vancouver Grizzlies along with Brevin Knight and Lorenzen Wright for Shareef Abdur-Rahim and the 27th overall pick. That 3rd pick turned out to be future HoFer Pau Gasol but no one knew he'd become that at the time. As for what the Grizzlies gave up for the pick, Shareef Abdur-Rahim was not a perennial All-Star nor was he an All-NBA level player. He was a solid player that became an All-Star in his debut season for the Hawks...and that was his only All-Star appearance.
With that in mind, it is a bit wild that it's so commonly suggested that Simons and the 3rd pick alone should be enough to acquire an All-NBA talent like Siakam, especially with how much inflation we've seen in trades for players of that caliber of late or even players who are a step below. Concerns about his contract expiring lowering his value are baffling, as if a team's front office wouldn't talk to him about an extension before making such a trade. Moreover, it's not like the Raptors need to deal him out when they can simply re-sign him in 2024.
Now this year, when Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller could be up for grabs, the 3rd pick has a lot more value given how highly praised those players are, so let's put aside the debate on what is fair for Siakam for a moment and talk about the presumed 3rd overall pick, Scoot Henderson.
The 2nd best player in a draft class containing the best prospect since LeBron James. He's projected to go 3rd because Charlotte is allegedly interested in taking Brandon Miller at 2nd but we'll touch on that later. For now, let's talk Scoot:
  • Henderson is a freakish athlete and a terrific floor general; he racked up an average of 6 assists a night on an AST:TO ratio of 1.94:1 and is a strong option on offense due to his abilities as a slasher
  • His usage as the G-League Ignite's offense, be it ball screens or handoffs, displayed his ability to break down a team's defense
    • To delve deeper into his production as an offensive guard, his percentage rate of ball screens (43.7%) is only matched or surpassed by 7 players across the entire NBA. 7!
  • Despite the athleticism, Scoot is generally good at controlling the ball and not turning it over due to careless mistakes driving to the basket
  • For a guard, he's a pretty solid rebounder and, if nothing else, he puts in the effort on defense even if he's not necessarily someone who screams "Future DPoY"
  • Intangibles are hard to really quantify but Scoot is the definition of someone who "has that dog in him" and he's someone you trust down the stretch to make the right move
  • He puts in effort on defense but he's only 6'2 with a 6'9 wingspan and, well he's no Kyle Lowry when it comes to taking charges or the like
  • His shooting is...a work-in-progress; he tends to default to long 2s which he isn't great at making (38% overall), his free throw percentage is only 75% and his 3-point shooting is a measly 31% off the dribble
Needless to say, there's a lot to like about Scoot; if Victor wasn't in this draft, he'd easily go #1 overall. He's often compared to Derrick Rose or even Russell Westbrook as this uber explosive guard who can seriously pressure the rim while generating solid passes for his teammates which is a good comparison though one obviously hope his outside shooting pans out more like Curry or Trae than Russ or Rose.
Losing Siakam would obviously hurt the team in the short term but as far as what Scoot brings, there is a lot of upside to him that would raise the ceiling of the team in the long run. His ability to get to the rim, combined with his athleticism would make him the perfect guard for a team that thrives in transition like the Raptors. He would also have chemistry with another player the Raptors have been rumored to be interested in/may take at 13 in Leonard Miller as they played on the same team but we'll talk about the 13th pick's potential prospects another time.
For now, let's go over one of the problems with trading for Scoot Henderson if he is still on the board, besides the obvious hypothetical of "he might never become a player as good as the one you're giving up" or "what do you do with Fred when you brought in Scoot and Simons" because what you're really asking is this: Is a backcourt of Scoot/Simons the team's guard duo of the future?
This brings me to my big problem with a “trade for Simons + 3” trade if the 3rd pick does end up being Scoot: A backcourt of two undersized guards, one of whom is unproven against NBA competition on defense and the other of whom has been one of the worst guard defenders in the league is not a duo of guards you can build a contender around in the long-term unless both of them become significantly improved defenders. Or at the very least, it's a duo that has historically not led to notable championship contention.
Blazers fans would know this well given their team has only had one year where they weren’t the in the NBA’s basement as far as defensive ratings go, be it with CJ or Anfernee as Lillard’s sidekick; the furthest they ever got with either was the Western Conference Finals and the best their defense has even been was 10th. Every other season, the Trailblazers defense has been amongst the worst in the NBA. Part of those Blazers teams' failures can be attributed to bad coaching, but a more significant portion of the blame be laid at the feet of Dame being a bad defender and undersized who has been paired with bad, undersized guards throughout much of his career.
You can get away with one bad defender or a starter who’s undersized for their position on a championship-caliber team which, if you’re rebuilding by trading away Siakam, that is what you’re hoping to take a step back for. As an example, Dirk Nowitzki wasn’t known for being a lockdown defender and yet the Mavericks won their first and only championship to date with Dirk as the weak link on defense. He was also a phenomenal offensive talent whose weaknesses on defense were mitigated by how much momentum he was able to generate for his team but I digress.
You can get away with running several smaller players for a limited time to force mismatches on offense with the right lineup. The Warriors dynasty comes to mind, where Golden State would close games using their “Death Lineup”. However, that lineup revolved around 4 Hall of Famers (Klay, Dray, Steph, Igoudala) where Steph is the lineup’s weakest link on defense, and this is before we acknowledge that they were able to include yet another HoFer in Kevin Durant to replace Harrison Barnes in a different incarnation of the Death Lineup from 2017 onward.
For that matter, it's not wholly impossible to win a championship with a duo of small guards - the Pistons repeated in the 89/90-90/91 with 6'3 Joe Dumars and 6'1 Isiah Thomas and the Bad Boy Pistons were contenders throughout the 90s - but it is damn near impossible if your lead guards are bad defenders. Whatever can be said about Thomas' various off-court controversies, notably with him being found liable for sexual misconduct during his stint heading a woman's basketball team a la the New York Liberty, he was a phenomenal defender, as was Dumars.
Hell, the Raptors won in 2019 while having Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry share the floor a fair amount of time in the Finals though it is once again worth noting that both were terrific defenders at the time. Even if one wouldn't call their efforts All-Defense caliber, they were both positives on that end of the floor.
Historically speaking, you cannot be a championship-caliber team with two of your starters being undersized negatives on the defensive end barring them being surrounded by generational defenders or said starters being generational offensive players who can make up for how many points you’re giving up on the other end of the floor.
Simons is a gifted scorer with good playmaking but is a truly sorry defender. Scoot Henderson is a talented passer but is undersized for the position and how he fares defensively with teams hunting him as the smallest player on the court will remain to be seen. But with neither of them likely to be a Dumars/Thomas-level defender and the offensive capabilities for one of them being the main question mark as to how good a player they could become, having both of them as the foundation to your team's backcourt seems to cement the duo's future as a non-contending entity.
Let's put this into perspective with some statistics: Of the past 40 years, the only championship to ever be won by a team with what could be considered a bad regular season defensive rating was the 2000/01 Lakers. That team had two generational talents in Shaq and Kobe, and that season is itself an outlier when compared to the rest of the Shaq/Kobe Lakers era that it shouldn't even count. All other championship teams were at least 12th or higher for their season with most championship teams being in the Top 5 in defensive rating.
By the by, in case you're wondering: That team who had 12th in defensive rating was the 1995 Rockets led by the generational talent in Hakeem Olajuwon and said rating had a lot to do with untimely injuries to the 95 Rockets core. That team they still managed to have the 7th best offensive rating in the league despite Drexler's absence for much of the season is a testament to Future Raptors Retiree Hakeem's skills as the best big man of the late 80s, early-to-mid 90s. Are we noticing a pattern here?
Even if we ignore the question about what to do with Fred, the question of what the Raptors backcourt looks like is far more pertinent if it is going to involve some combination of Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons with, presumably, Gary Trent Jr. and another guard coming off the bench for relief. Is a backcourt of Anfernee Simons and Scoot going to turn this team into a Top 3-6 offense for the season without plummeting this team's defense off of a cliff? And if you don't think so, when do you move one of them to open up the 1 or the 2 for another player?
This is a question the team will likely have to answer once they've seen how Simons and Scoot fit togethefit with the rest of the roster; I don't see a 3-team draft day deal where Simons or the 3rd pick are moved elsewhere barring that aforementioned moving down to 4th and I don't see this team without Siakam/with Scoot and Simons being a serious contender for several years even if they do pan out. But it is a question that has me concerned in regards to how this team will function when it's developing a dynamic duo of players who will be picked apart in the playoffs barring one of them turning into a terrific defender.
Whatever else one can say about Point Scottie or even Scottie Barnes when he was crammed into the starting Shooting Guard position for much of the year, it is hard to argue that having either Scottie or Trent & Simons/Scoot as your backcourt makes way more sense defensively even if having both Scottie and Scoot complicates matters on the offensive end since neither are great shooters and Trent's defense is a touch overrated at time due to is propensity to gamble for steals.
All this being said, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Henderson becomes an All-Defense-caliber player or for Simons to a climb out from the deep hole he's dug for himself as one of the worst defenders in the league, and Scoot is still a phenomenal talent. These concerns should be noted, but they shouldn't serve to deter from selecting him 3rd if such a trade were to go down. As a prospect, there's very few players in this draft class who could serve to singlehandedly raise the floor and the ceiling of this team in the long run.
Speaking of other players, however, it should be acknowledged that Scoot isn't the only potentially available player at 3; while all accounts suggest the Hornets prefer Brandon Miller at 3, Scoot is the best player available at 2 and there's no guarantee the Hornets draft for fit. So here's a quick rundown of Miller and a player the Blazers have recently worked out, Amen Thompson:
  • Brandon Miller is a 6'9 forward (boo, we have enough of those!) who can shoot (yay, we need more of that!) and has some notable playmaking upside even if his decision-making can be questionable at times. He's a player you could see as either a #1 or a high level #2 option on a championship team though he's not the most switchable guy on defense and you have the usual rookie concerns i.e. "he needs to get the NBA body to thrive". He's gotten a lot of comparisons to Paul George but i'd say his playmaking is further ahead from what PG13 was as a prospect.
  • Amen Thompson is someone I talked about in the trade for the 4th pick & he's a very interesting player. A high ceiling, low floor player with unreal athleticism, a 6'7 lead guard who's arguably the best passer in the draft class but has serious questions about the competition he's faced in OverTime Elite/his shooting being as bad as it was. Think Ja Morant but with defense and, again, at 6'7 with a much longer wingspan.
I feel like the trade makes more sense if the Raptors were to go for Amen or Miller but we won't know who the Hornets will chose on draft night until the day of & ideally you'd trade down for 4th to get Thompson plus assets if you're sold on Amen. Plus like I said, it is possible that Scoot does become a good or even great defender so one might not have to worry about choosing between him and Ant down the line.
TL;DR - Scoot is an amazing prospect but his pairing with Simons could be a major problem in the future if both don't improve defensively. Ironically, the 3rd pick becomes simultaneously more valuable for other teams/less valuable for the Raptors if it's Scoot and vice-versa if it's Miller due to those concerns. Thompson is a wildcard at 3 depending on who has the pick/how willing the Rockets are to trade up to 3rd.
Nassir Little
Portland is reluctant to deal out Sharpe. We can debate on whether or not it's fair value for an All-NBA caliber player like Siakam, how much his contract being expiring should affect a deal (we'll ignore the fact that he can be extended by Portland and that any front office making a trade like this should be doing their due diligence by speaking to Pascal Siakam beforehand) or how good Sharpe actually was as a rookie overall instead of solely focusing on that stretch where the Blazers let him do whatever because they were tanking but regardless, the Blazers seem intent on keeping him. Fair enough, Masai is likely aiming for more than Anfernee and 3 - especially for the reasons listed above if it is Scoot Henderson - but Sharpe is likely a hard sell for the front office even if they are going all-in i.e. they want to keep at least one young guy on the roster for the long-term.
That being said, there's still the matter of salary matching, and that's where one of Nassir Little or Sharpe has to come in (They're not going to move Nurkic in the deal for Siakam unless they have something lined up for their center situation i.e. tampering for Naz Reid); the only way for the Blazers to neatly absorb Siakam into their cap with just Simons is by renouncing their rights to Jerami Grant and they need to re-sign him/move him to the 3 (Grant is a really bad rebounder for a PF; the man is a career 4 RPG) if they are serious about competing with Dame.
So...yeah, Nassir Little. Little is what people think O.G. is: A good defender who is often injured, Little is a solid 3 & D wing who, unlike Anunoby, has never played more than 55 games for a given season. Granted, 2019/20 and 2020/21 were shorted to 72 seasons but regardless, injuries have hampered the 23 year-old in the same way that Otto Porter Jr.'s potential was sapped due to a career-long battle with injuries. Still, when considering his age and production, his newest contract ($28M/4 years) is amazing value when he's healthy.
But much like Otto (who I think technically could be sent in such a deal due to the rules around incoming/outgoing salaries), the question of when he's available is a common one. Little is a good young player but one whom you shouldn't get your hopes up about changing the team's direction.
TL;DR - A little salary (sorry) is needed for the deal to happen on draft night & Nassir would be a decent choice for forward depth off the bench. One will have to carefully factor in injury concerns when evaluating the team's depth.
Keon Johnson
So like I said, Sharpe is likely to be ruled out. I debated if I should cover him at all but i'm honestly not sold on Shaedon as a prospect and we've already met the quota for rants with the "Simons/Scoot frontcourt will be exploited" talks. That said, I don't think the Raptors would settle for just Simons and the 3rd pick or the 3rd pick plus assets from a 3rd team were Anfernee moved due to the aforementioned backcourt issues with Simons and Scoot. For now we have Keon Johnson.
Fun fact: When the Raptors were expected to draft 7th in the 2021 draft, Johnson was a common player mocked for the 7th pick.
He wound up going in the 20 to the Clippers (via the Knicks in a trade) who eventually fleeced the Blazers in a deal including him for Norman Powell.
Keon Johnson...hasn't really done a whole lot thus far. He was noted for having an impressive vertical of 48" at the 2021 combine which broke a previous record, he's a terrific athlete and he's about the same age as Scottie so he lines up with a rebuild or retool around Barnes...
...and that's where the positives end. Like I said, Keon hasn't demonstrated all that much on either team he's been on. For a guard, he's not a great ball handler, he isn't a good shooter, he's got decent size and the speed to be a good defender from 1-3 but his potential on that end does not All-Defense caliber. He'd be a throw-in that you'd hope can develop over time, likely spending a lot of time in the G-League because as of right now, he isn't going to be a significant contributor on either end.
TL;DR - Keon is on a rookie deal so you'd be taking a flier on him/betting on your development bringing out the best in him if he were included.
Other pick(s): As far as immediate draft capital goes, the Blazers have the 23rd pick in this draft, which is around the range where players the Raptors have been rumored to be interested in/interviewed (Bilal Couliby, GG Jackson) would likely be available. There's been some speculation that the Blazers could send this pick to the Bulls so they can get their owed pick back from Chicago but nothing concrete has come out regarding whether the Bulls would settle for that vs. hoping the Blazers make the 1st round and lose so they can get a pick in the 16-20 range.
That said, the future pick owed to the Bulls is where things get tricky if the Raptors did want a future 1st: The Blazers pick is protected until 2028. It is technically possible for them to offer a swap in 2029 but without the protections being removed on the Bulls-bound 2024 1st (The 2029 pick cannot be moved due to the Stepien Rule), any future draft capital would need to come in the form of the 2023 trade deadline's currency of choice: Second round picks.
Some of the notable 2nds include:
  • A 2024 2nd that could come from the Hornets or Wolves
  • A 2028 Warriors 2nd
  • This year's second via the Hawks which is 45th
  • The Blazers own 2nd in 2028
Not that these are a good substitute for a first-rounder but with the Blazers draft capital being restricted and the CBA's changes to 2nd round contracts, it's better than no future firsts if the 2023 Knicks pick is considered a bridge too far.
TL;DR - There is some interesting draft capital here beyond their own 1sts, especially if the 23rd pick is available in a deep draft like this, but ideally one would want a future 1st from the Blazers rather than a handful of 2nds given Dame's limited window.
Conclusion
I was originally going to talk about the 4th overall pick too but this got a bit lengthy so I made that into a separate post. As far as the 3rd pick package, in some ways it's better than one surrounding the 4th pick because Simons is a flatout better player than any one the Rockets would send back but it's also worse when you factor in Simons or Scoot's respective ceilings vs some of the potential prospects that could come in a 4th pick package?
You're getting significant depth at the guard position if it is Scoot/Simons but there's a huge question mark as to how good the defense will hold up with two undersized guards, one of whom is a bad defender, will hold up in the playoffs.
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2023.06.02 23:59 canriderollercoaster Labral Tear & Facet Arthropathy

26F 5’1 135 lbs. with several issues that have developed and/or been diagnosed in the last year.
Physical Conditions/symptoms: Diverticular Disease - I get chronic flares Interstitial cystitis Assumed endometriosis IBS-C Chronic migraines Hypermobility Costochondritis
I’ve had chronic joint pain and weakness for upwards of 10 years, as well as SI joint pain that I attributed to an assumed bulging disc (normal xray) I had 5 years ago - from picking up a shoe box.
PCP and I have thought EDS or possibly autoimmune. Rheumatologist tried to dismiss me as having fibromyalgia after a blood panel and one sacrum Xray - both came back normal. Later on in August 2022 I suddenly developed in tense right hip pain (no injury) that has never subsided and intensified my back pain. Again, X-rays came back normal.
After 8 months and a lot of pushing I was referred to orthopedics and finally got an MRI of my right hip and lumbar region. My results I just got show a labral tear as well as facet Arthropathy with effusion and bone spurs in L4-L5. I assumed the Arthropathy was a result of my bulging disc “injury,” but have been told that injuries don’t cause that? Is that true?
Now that I have tangible radiologic proof of something going on in my back and hip, I’m convinced this can’t just be fibro (though I agree I could still have it along with something else) since I was told it is not inflammatory or degenerative. I want to advocate for myself to try to find a root cause again. Is my line of thinking reasonable?
My lumbar MRI did not do imaging of my sacrum - should I tell my doctor I’d like to order one? My pain is directly on both SI joints and they feel swollen at times. My rheumatologist has not wanted to order an MRI, should I ask my ortho? PCP? Or get a new rheumatologist?
Thanks!
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2023.06.02 23:51 sunrathna My Theory on Hookup Culture

My theory on hook-up culture
I define hook-up culture as the idea that young people are too young for commitment, so instead should engage in casual sex to gain sexual variety and sexual experience before committing to a serious relationship. I would also say hook-up culture believes that this is how humans were meant to mate and that it's in our nature, and society only suppresses our desire to hook up. Hook-up culture is not just casual sex or people engaging in casual sex I want to make that clear. My main argument boils down to human sexual behavior changes due to changes in our environment and hoe exception to behavioral norms don't exist in a vacuum but rather are caused by something. I believe hook-up culture emerged from social and economic factors that are unhealthy for humans. I believe hook-up culture is prevalent in our society because of atomization and alienation, toxic masculinity, mental disorders, amplification of FOMO produced by consumerism, porn culture, careerism (stress from career and relocation of jobs), poor upbringing, bad experience with romance, and pressure from media (self-fulfilling prophecy).

I believe atomization and alienation make it harder to connect and trust people. I think careerism makes us more tired and stressed to even spend time with friends and hobbies. Porn culture and consumerism alienate sex from romance and amplifies the feeling of missing out. Mental disorders make it harder for us to be ok with uncomfortable emotions, and people typically veer towards a coping mechanism which could be casual sex, to escape their problems. Previous bad experiences with relationships might also make people mistrust romance and attain a pessimistic mindset regarding romance. Growing up in an unhealthy household can further push people towards pessimism. Or some people who had healthy upbringing learn to separate sex from love by watching porn, media, or developed mindset that everyone does it so they are inevitably going to do it.

I believe hook-up culture has existed in the past, but it was much more silent in the past, but now it's becoming mainstream since monogamous romantic relationships are crippling due to the factors I mentioned above. Just because a fish dies on land doesn't mean there is a problem with the fish; rather, the environment is not suited for the fish to live. If you put the fish in the water, you will see it thrive and flourish. I am not saying romantic relationships cannot exist now, but rather, the current conditions make it harder for it to exist and flourish especially in our youth. I believe if we build tighter communities, provide better access to mental health care, teach kids relationship skills, and combat consumerism and porn culture, hook-up culture will disappear and long-term relationships will begin to flourish like never before.

I do not believe hook-up culture is how humans were meant to mate. I believe human dating culture changes over time. A socialist feminist named Alexandra Kollantai talks about how human dating culture changes over time in her essay https://www.marxists.org/archive/kollonta/1923/winged-eros.htm. I want to say I don't agree with her on everything but she makes good points in this essay

https://exploringyourmind.com/sex-isnt-natural-cultural/

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/underneath-the-sheets/202002/is-sex-natural

https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/display/document/obo-9780199941728/obo-9780199941728-0076.xml#:~:text=Human%20behavioral%20ecology%20(HBE)%20asks,the%20study%20of%20human%20behavior%20asks,the%20study%20of%20human%20behavior).

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/human-behavioral-ecology

https://pressbooks-dev.oer.hawaii.edu/explorationsbioanth/chapte__unknown__-17/

I also want to preface that I am not saying casual sex is bad. But I want to point out that hook-up culture is just a product of its environment. If the environment changes to be more suitable for long-term relationships then hook-up culture will disappear. Sure I believe there might be small pockets of people who have casual sex but that's not hook-up culture and only would happen in specific circumstances. At the end of the day, my analysis and conclusion are similar to evolution.

In evolution, the environment changes the organism and even the behavior of organisms. For example, elephants who moved into small islands became small to adapt to their new environment. The dietary behavior or sea otters of the same species changes depending on the environment. In both cases, there is elephants aren't meant to be big and sea otters aren't meant to eat a specific type of fish. Any organism that deviates from the norm exists do so because of a reason. Diversity does not exist in a vacuum something causes exceptions in a given population.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2022.893453/full#:~:text=Animals%20often%20respond%20to%20a,adapted%20to%20the%20new%20conditions.

https://nature-mentor.com/environment-animal-behavio

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/10/211019110537.htm

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6557547/

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/15592294.2019.1583039
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2023.06.02 23:47 smolcrackheadenergy TWICE Between 1&2 Album Review

Intro

To preface this review, I just need to say that this is going to be a very, very long read. Going through it myself just for the fun of it takes around 15 minutes — it's around 6k words of text, including references to the lyrics. So for the best experience, listen to the album beforehand to understand what the hell I was thinking when I wrote this review and set a good amount of time aside.
Another thing to get out of the way: yes, this is 9 months late

Between 1&2 💞

Album Review



TELL ME WHAT YOU WANT
TELL ME WHAT YOU NEED



Talk that Talk 🎙

One of the most perfect TWICE songs.
I think this is one of TWICE’s best sounding title tracks. Modulated synths, a thrumming bass line, distant bells, shimmering synths—the purpose of this song is to be fun and my god is it excellent at it, like… Sana and Chaeyoung are saying knock-knock-knock and beep-beep-beep as if they’re some kind of car. So much fun.
Dahyun, Tzuyu, and Jeongyeon’s vocals sound incredible in this intro. Dahyun’s voice sounds so full and smooth with that harmony layered on top. Tzuyu coming in with the Yes or Yes, Push & Pull, and 1 to 10 references — these are 5 years of song references in one line. And Jeongyeon closes the prechorus accompanied by a rising synth to drop into chorus one. Jeongyeon slays prechoruses.
The drums accelerate, the synths start blasting, and Jihyo opens to that party of a chorus with her godly vocals
Tell me what you want Tell me what you need A to Z da malhaebwa But shijageun ireoke hae Talk that talk ttak han madi Talk that talk L-O-V-E deullyeojweo ooh Now now now now now yeah~
This song’s chorus is so honest yet so simple; it asks the listener, in this case the other half of the relationship, to be more upfront and open with their love — never be scared of love — that before the relationship can continue and flourish there has to be a foundation and commitment of love between each other.
Now, back to this banger of a song. Beneath the Talk that Talk~ lines there’s this ascending synth bell that gently rings with each syllable and it sounds absolutely gorgeous. And the choreography during that part of the chorus is so so so so fun: from pretending that hands are talking, to that synergetic head bop and hand shuffle, to the deullyeojweo ooh! Oh my god Jihyo the deullyeojweo ooh…
Have I mentioned this song is fun?
Speeding through verse 2; Chaeyoung’s little part with the cat ears popping in the music video is adorable; Momo’s part with her solo choreography stretching out looks so damn cool; and Dahyun with her replay part sounds so lovely — although I think it sonically sounds a touch random, it makes sense thematically.
And now for this prechorus. Mina and Jihyo leading into it sound great BUT JEONGYEON… Now I am freaking out because she’s my ult bias, and this prechorus sounds almost identical to the first one, but the way she holds that final note, inflecting and enunciating the now~ for one more beat sounds so god damn perfect — the song almost teeters on a cliff edge, moments before diving into the chorus. Jeongyeon slays prechoruses.
Dropping into the second chorus and man, Jihyo killed that first chorus, but the way Nayeon delivers it just hits a bit different. She has an indescribable “pop” voice that stands out and shouts out loud this-is-THE-chorus. Jihyo’s voice brings the power, Jeongyeon has the allure, and Nayeon brings the energy. I think this is especially apparent in how she leads into the chorus and her A to Z da malhaebwa line: Jihyo starts the “tell” at 120% power whereas Nayeon waits until “what” to full-send the chorus; later in the chorus, she then highlights “malhaebwa” in a more pronounced and dynamic way before softening her voice again for her next line.
Another deullyeojweo ooh! Nayeon travels to Narnia, and Mina the engineer strikes again in this heavenly, underwater-esque bridge.
The simple words “I love you” That’s all I wanna hear Without hesitation, I’ll go up to you I’ll make it simple
And just tell you I love you
The word “love” is said for the first time in the song. There’s a funky keyboard-like instrument behind Chaeyoung’s part. Then Jihyo, Chaeyoung, and Nayeon take initiative in their lyrics, professing their love before closing the bridge.
And can I just say before finishing the song off with the part that makes it exceptional, that this is such a fun and repeatable song with many little intricacies hidden in the nonet’s vocals and the song’s production. This is the second time I’m writing about Talk that Talk and it’s word count pretty much quadrupled.
And now for the pièce-de-résistance: this final double chorus is exceptional — 40 seconds of crack-laced euphoria; Jihyo switches up the chorus, Dahyun comes in with her airy “Talk that Talk”, Momo coming out of nowhere with “oh yeah it sounds so good!” — you’re damn right it does.
The second half continues; Nayeon belting out “tell me what you need!”, about what I said earlier with Nayeon’s chorus where she plays with her vocal delivery, contrasting a really powerful line with a softer one, Jeongyeon does it too with her
han beon deo~ haejweo
geurae banggeum geu mal~
From Momo’s part onwards, this song SOARS. Nayeon brings the song to even higher highs and Jeongyeon continues it still with her melody before smoothly slowing it down for Tzuyu’s line, closing the song off with the final deullyeojweo ooh!
What a party.
What a song.

THE GOOD
- The synths of all time
- The chimes during Talk-that-talk~
- Jeongyeon’s prechorus going into Nayeon’s chorus
- The entire, double-shot, last chorus
- Solid line distribution
Needs Work
- Hook (Tell me what you want) and accompanying choreography could be “catchier”
Life Highlight
- Singing (and dancing) my heart out when this song played during a K-pop club

This song feels like that bubbly, excited feeling right before, or during, a party, or any event that you really wanted to go to. It simply feels like unadulterated, pure, unbridled joy and elation and escapism. The synths and instrumentation really have to be commended alongside TWICE’s vocals. There’s just a warmth and happiness to this gosh darn song that feels so very TWICE.
Lyrics and theme-wise, if this were to have been TWICE’s last comeback, they’ve done the thing: they’ve done a Bildungsroman, a coming of age story.
TWICE debuted with a song about making your crush go ooh ahh. Years later, they started maturing after asking “what is love?” by imagining their crush responding with “yes” when asking them out and now concluding with the phrase “talk that talk, [talk that] L-O-V-E”, being upfront with the relationship, wishing their partner to also be happy, to commit to them, to feel the love that they want to impart on them. From gawking like ooh-ahh to talking out your shared love like real adults — to have a true relationship between one and two. I think there’s something poetic in that.
Harkening back to TWICE’s roots by combining mature thinking with youthful character, an incredible ending to look forward, and just simply being a club-banger that’s easy to listen to, TTT is an easy 10/10.



WATCH ME GO WATCH ME GO
RULE THE WORLD



Queen of Hearts 👑

If there was one b-side to promote in a live clip, this was a solid choice.
Main producer: LDN Noise of SM
Helmed by LDN Noise going headlong into the Western boy-group rock-band aesthetic, Queen of Hearts is a boom boom clap song through and through. The drums are very prominent throughout the song, only giving room to riffs of electric guitar in the chorus to drive and continue the momentum of the song.
And speaking of the chorus, vocal line each got a chorus to flex and they did not fuck around
You ain’t ready for it
Watch me go~ watch me go~
Rule the world
Know you never doubted baby
I’mma go run the whole universe~
The cymbals crash, drums start booming, and the vocals… 3MIX all just so sound so equally good. And then followed by
Baby I was born to rule~~
Yeah I’m the queen, I’m the queen
And it’s all because of you~~
That I’m the Queen of Hearts
These looong held out notes performed by Jihyo and Nayeon are simply exquisite. Along with the shredding guitar, the drum set coming in full, the interludes by Dahyun, Momo, and Chaeyoung. This is the part of the song that always, always, give me goosebumps — it sounds so visceral, so energetic, so fun, so triumphant. Subjectively, boom boom clap songs can be hit or miss with people, but there is no denying that the pay off from the first part of the chorus to this second part is worth the wait.
The theme of the song so far has been kind of spread around the song. The chorus alludes to it with the line
And it’s all because of you
Mina and Chaeyoung show more sides of it in the second verse, especially with Mina’s phrase
And now that I’m surrounded by all my girls
We be shining bright like diamonds and pearls
It sounds really lovely — in a very cheesy and affectionate kind of way, as it rightfully should — song is about the girls and their fans. But the bridge is where the song truly shows it’s colours
Screaming out my name
See it in the stage lights
Feel so lucky just to have ya
Cause I know deep down I was meant for something bigger, greater
I know you’re seeing what I see
Yeah I’ll be everything you need
I know I’m gonna walk the walk
And talk the talk to be [the Queen of Hearts]
This is a song CONCEIVED TO BE PERFORMED FOR THE FANS. It’s meant to be loud. It’s meant to be unapologetic. It’s meant to be sappy. And it’s all the more wonderful for it.
This is the TWICEiest shit ever.
Like Talk that Talk, Queen of Hearts also has a killer closer. During the bridge, the production starts from a hushed guitar and bass drum duet with a touch a high hat, growing in intensity with a riser and harmonies at the end. The guitarist evolves in the background until finally going Super Saiyan and instead of supporting the drums, they take the centrepiece in tandem — eventually overtaking them with a little shred at the end of the chorus.
Then finally, the closing moments of the song even manages to squeeze in some more sappiness.
So thank you for the memories
You’re all the ones who made me~
So thank you for the memories
That I’m the Queen of Hearts
I still can’t believe that this banger is a FAN SONG out of all things. Truly, the TWICEiest shit ever.

THE GOOD
- Adorable fucking lyrics
- Unrelenting, roaring chorus
- English and vocal flex
- Addicting guitar riffs
Needs Work
- Chaeyoung rapping in English in Korean songs somehow slaps harder than her English rapping in English songs
Life Highlight
- Walking home from a K-pop festival with this song playing, felt like a Queen of Hearts

I love these types of rock songs with how grunge and head-bang-able they are, there is just a certain nostalgic and cheesy quality to them that feels so appropriate and cozy. I don’t love putting them on repeat, because in this case I do believe there is such a thing as too much of a good thing. Perhaps more shredding, maybe even a guitar solo to rock out to, or more gusto from the drums, cymbals, bass guitar, or an accompaniment(!) of ad-libs from TWICE’s vocal line to support Jihyo’s chorus time? A ONCE can dream for a truly bombastic rock song from TWICE. But then again that distracts from the core of what this song is and that is a fan song undercover as a rock song.
Queen of Hearts has so much sweetness in its lyrics and message that its overflowing. The drums, guitar, and vocals can be as loud and intricate as they can, but the theme of this song is what makes it special from TWICE’s other rock songs. And with a good combination of attitude and heart to make it a surprisingly incredible song, especially for fans of this type of sound — it’s a 9/10 for me.



I WANNA WANNA WANNA
TAKE YOU TO THE BASICS



Basics 🌈

Quite possibly the jammiest (pun intended) song of the album.
Sole lyric-writing credit: Chaeyoung
A song written by the Strawberry Princess herself — an event similar in frequency to Blackpink’s releases with her last song being 2020’s silky Handle It — Basics first starts with an understated and dreamy delivery. After the first stanza, however, a bouncy Miami bass line emerges, revealing the true nature of the song: this is a classic summer bop!
The song stretches back and forth with which attitude it wants to showcase but that chorus knows for sure what it wants to be. If you’re not bopping your head to the bassline, you better be bopping your head to the melody. Chaeyoung loves rhyming in the first half the chorus to enhance its catchiness and she is damn good at it:
I wanna wanna wanna take it to the basics
da weonhae weonhae weonhae? seodureuji ma Baby
ppeonhae ppeonhae malhae mweohae da al tende
Ah yeah ah yeah ah yeah ah yeah
The “wanna”, “weonhae”, and “ppeonhae” all combine to create these slant (imperfect) rhymes that continue momentum without feeling repetitive, iteration by derivation for the nerds.
Another characteristic of Chaeyoung’s songwriting is her unapologetic liberties with the song’s line distribution when displaying what she wants to showcase: her rap. She ate the first rap, then she ATE THE SECOND RAP. Those are her only two parts in the song yet she’s still sitting on top of the (fair, imo) line distribution.
The first rap after the intro is, like already mentioned, very dreamy and bouncy, it’s pop with R&B flourishes and, in my opinion, this is Chaeyoung’s bag. Her tone is very sing-songy and laid back, fitting the buildup to the pre-chorus. Syllables are pronounced at a triplet pace with a quarter at the end of each bar to give the rap room to breathe, further adding to the relaxed nature of this verse. Also, the line rainbow bubblegum is so adorable and so Chaeyoung.
That second rap on the other half… sheesh.
taneun deut tteugeoun samak wie
yeppeuge pieonan jangmi gata
joshimseure naege dagaol ttae
nado moreuge jjilleobeoril tende
Translating to:
Above the hot, burning desert
It’s like a rose that bloomed beautifully
When you come to me slowly
I will prick you unconsciously
After the very Boy With Luv-sounding “ah yeah ah yeah, ah yeah ah yeah” comes an 8 bar split half and half between Chaeyoung and Momo. Coming from the chorus, the same triplet-triplet-triplet-quarter structure is repeated across most of the verses, however the production completely cuts out for the first 2 bars. This adds tension; the song yearns to have that bass beat thumping again and all we have in the audio space in those 2 bars is Chaeyoung spitting — and she damn delivered:
The rap feels slick, effortless, confident. Her diction remains sharp when enunciating each syllable but she doesn’t let the flow of her rap waver or build as her 4 bars go by, it’s just smooth and consistent throughout. Even the lyrics possess an aura of laid-back collectedness that is just so her.
The things Chaeyoung can do when given her pen.

THE GOOD
- That sweet summer vibe of a chorus
- The “spaceship” post-chorus is killer
- Strawberries with some spicy raps
- Sure-footed, confident lyrics
Needs Work
- Perhaps an alteration of that ah yeah ah yeah line
- The way Jihyo did her pre-chorus line is good, Mina’s is great
Life Highlight
- After donating my hair, walking down the rainbow coloured areas of downtown Toronto with this song playing was very… fitting

This song is summer bliss distilled into 2:56 of MP3. It’s dreamy, the raps are satisfying, and the ending is very cute. I will say that although the second half of the song adds the crack-laced “spaceship” post-choruses and a floaty bridge with an incredible transition to the final chorus, the climax and killing parts of the song make it feel a bit front-loaded. And in an album stacked with incredible finishers, it feels more apparent.
With that said, it’s an 8/10 bop for me. This song is so radio-friendly and easy to put on and it feels exactly what Chaeyoung would make if she were given the reins to produce a pop song all on her own. The lyrics are non-chalant but full of meaning, the wordplay is intricate, the production is playful, and it’s not too in-your-face with the caliber of song that it is. Songs like Basics are the gold standard for good, simple, repeatable pop music and I’m happy that Chaeyoung got to test her pen in this genre.



BABY WE’RE IN
TROUBLE TROUBLE



Trouble 💃

One of the most enjoyable songs I’ve heard in a while.
Sole lyricist credit: Jihyo
Background vocals: Jihyo
Vocal director credit: Jihyo
Lead composer credit: Jihyo
There is an underlying tension within the first 4 bars of the song, Jihyo and Nayeon open it to a nondescript array of synths and then the stanza ends, Momo announces “let’s go”, the beat drops and it hits you:
This is a club song.
Toronto’s residential market needs this song injected into its veins because god damn this song has so so so much house in it.
The wobbly synth beat, the sprinkle of that house piano in the pre-chorus where the percussion is just about ready to explode, the ascension into this Cloud9 level chorus where
* Nayeon opens it using a breathy tone, with vocal chops serving as harmonies
* The blooming of the house piano to take centre stage
* Jeongyeon’s pronunciation of the word “trouble” almost sounding like a growl
* Chaeyoung slyly admitting “I like this trouble”
* The entirety of Tzuyu’s tro~oh~oh~ouble yeah~
* The descending melody of that house piano as the song ascends into euphoria
* Sana using her deep voice for the na~na~na~na
* Jihyo leading the vocals during the group synchronized T.W.I.C.E chant
This chorus is perfect.
And then.
AND THEN.
ANOTHER KILLING PART.
This rap fucking slaps.
During the first 2 bars, Chaeyoung is keeping it calm because that endorphin trip of a chorus just ended but ayo, no-one, and I mean no-one on the whole damn Earth expected her to snap that hard in the last 2 bars:
You cannot resist this
I - I - I I - I - I
Cannot miss this, such a bliss
I - I - I - I I - I - I
Ima put it down down
I-I - I - I I - I
Oh yeah, better kiss kiss
I - I I - I - I - I
The lines below the lyrics are the notes.
Note: I’m not that well versed in this technical aspect of music theory but I digress.
This is all in the span of 2 bars where it’s
Triplet-triplet-quadruplet-triplet,
Quadruplet-doublet-doublet-quadruplet.
This is all in the span of 5 seconds.
Now, 25 syllables/5 seconds = 5 syllables per second isn’t groundbreaking, but god damn it these 2 bars sound so nice — if there is one part in this album I always repeat, it’s this.
The addition of that first quadruplet for “cannot miss this” in the midst of all the triplets sticks out and accelerates the flow of the rap while the following doublets and quadruplets help to destabilize and slow the rap down as the verse closes. And can I just point out:
THE MAIN VOCALIST WROTE, DIRECTED, AND COMPOSED THIS SONG ‼️‼️‼️
Chaeyoung of course delivered the fuck out of her verse but THIS is what you get when you have a member not only write the words they’re saying but also the melody and flow with which they sing it in. This is what you get when a member knows the other members so well that when they write a song, they know how to make the group as a whole exceed. This is what you get when the artists you stan love doing artist shit.
And.
AND.
THAT’S NOT ALL.
For all the ranting I wrote on how much I love a damn good outro to close a song,
This outro slaps as well.
Woo wee woo wee woo
I like this trouble be-be by Momo
Woo wee woo wee woo
I like this trouble bay-be by Sana
Woo wee woo wee woo
I like this trouble bay-beh by Chaeyoung
Woo wee woo wee woo
I like this trou-ble by Jihyo
What an outro.
Like, come on, Nayeon’s imitating a police siren for crying out loud. And this is all after her ad-libs in the final post-chorus, after the pianist going full tilt and playing that piano as if it was their last day on Earth, after the final T.W.I.C.E chant by all the members, comes these blissful 20 seconds at the very end.
What a song.

THE GOOD
- Theme of relishing in an uncontrolled love
- Mina and Sana’s melody in the pre-chorus
- Chorus
- Post-chorus
- Rap
- Outro
- Wees and woos
Needs Work
- Mina’s line of “falling down, falling down, falling down low” in verse 2 feels a bit too abrupt of a change — a bit out of place
Life Highlight
- After clubbing, I have a newfound appreciation for songs like these #noclubbingnolife

Need I say more, easy 9/10. The only reason I place Talk that Talk above Trouble is because of what that song represents but other than that, this song is the best “international” sound they’ve put out. Actually, I haven’t listened to Eyes wide open in a while but this song is up there with one of the most sonically pleasing pieces of work they’ve done.
Clubbing TWICE music has always been a thing since TT was birthed in 2016, and has been a staple of their discography since 2019’s Fancy You and Feel Special mini albums, but Trouble unapologetically dives into and fits the house genre so well you’d think that this is TWICE’s bread and butter sound.
Trouble is Jihyo’s magnum opus.
What a song.



BRAVE BRAVE BRAVE
FOR YOU



Brave 💖

I first thought this was just a good song, then I read the lyrics.
Main producer: Slow Rabbit of HYBE
Gentle guitar plucks, shimmering synths, a distant keyboard in the right ear, in the left an occasional glockenspiel, the melodic oohs from the members — this song is PRETTY.
Once the chorus hits, the melodies pick up, more guitars get added, there’s even an electric guitar hidden in the mix somewhere, and the song evolves from a song with good vibes, to a song to dance to while crying in the club. And that’s without even delving into the lyrics.
The song describes a situation where the singer is in a darker place in life:
The night that was unusually dark
Above this terrifying world, felt so lonely
The world has grown in the time of wandering
So hard to breathe
It isn’t until another person gives them hope by calling them brave that they find the drive to keep on going, to keep on reaching higher highs, to try to be their truest self. Where has this theme been done before? Uhm…
THIS SONG IS FEEL SPECIAL AS A B-SIDE ‼️
Notable lyrics include:
A voice was heard makes me alive again
I was an endless maze, you became my sign
I’m never alone, so I’m never alone
My only believer
A dreamer that made me run further
This is such an emo song, oh my god. What makes it hurt even more that apparently, like how Feel Special can be interpreted, this song is centred around ONCE, which, again, is the TWICEiest shit ever. This group is so sappy and full of love, they deserve the whole world.

THE GOOD
- Special lyrics
- Pleasant sound to vibe out to
- That gentle break after the first chorus
- Jihyo’s high note at the end
- A Nayeon Jeongyeon joint high note ⁉️
- Just pretty vocals throughout
Needs Work
- Potentially hard to read without translating the Korean lyrics
Life Moment
- Form of Therapy’s life motto revolves around the word “brave”. I don’t know where I got that from, but I remembered it right before watching his album reaction

I’m actually spoiled with the TWICE members’ easy-to-understand songwriting that when a song like this pops up where it isn’t written by a member and the thematic bits are mostly in Korean I just tend to forget about it in favour of the other songs on the album. And, especially for a song focusing on a theme like this where the English phrases don’t do the Korean lyrics enough justice, it does place a barrier the listening experience a bit, dropping it down to an 7/10.
With that anecdote out of the way, this song is just such a vibe, man. I know that sounds incredibly hippy to say but Brave is so mellow and smooth that I can’t help but sway a little when that chorus hits. And then I remember what the lyrics say and I stop and cry a bit on the inside. This song is so pure, raw, and full of heart — we need more songs like these where they just reminisce about life while putting up an upbeat front. Crying while dancing the night away as they say, or something along those lines.
Also now feels like a good time to get into my rating system. A 10/10 song for me is one of the best of an artist’s discography, songs that encapsulate their ideas perfectly or expand upon them in a meaningful way. 9/10s are borderline perfect songs where I sometimes have trouble comprehending how excellent they are. 8/10s are great songs with standout characteristics, and 7/10s are songs where I feel the flaws are too apparent or are simply just great songs that I’m less attracted to.



I SEE THE LIES
ON THE TIP OF YOUR TONGUE



Gone 💨

Who the fuck pissed off Dubu this time??
Sole lyricist credit: Dahyun
It’s getting quite rare to see TWICE pull off brand new sounds because, with 218 songs under their belt, they’ve done so many genres and sub-genres varying from hyper pop, to bossa nova, to whatever 2020’s Go Hard is. So it’s surprising to know they’ve still got tricks up their sleeves and Gone is one of them.
The song starts with strings swinging back and forth and vocal chops dancing from ear to ear, teasing what’s yet to come. Jihyo enters the song with a whisper and the song sets its pace. A stagnant drum pad moves the song along and typical song convention would have Mina continuing the build but — it doesn’t. The song continues to simmer, adding a hint of high hat to the pot. And then, Sana and Tzuyu come on and surely the buildup has to bear fruit right?
Silence, until…
I see the lies on the top of your tongue
The strings emerge again on full blast, the simmer turns into a rolling boil, and the anger of the song is revealed.
All the fate I had towards you
Fades like a fog, gone, gone
Your flipping mind of doing this and that
I’m tired of it, it’s meaningless
In the beginning, it was hard to believe
With that, hatred increases
The singer is so scorned and burned from this relationship that they reminisce about all the effort they’ve put in since the beginning, but their “partner” is so unconcerned and unfaithful that they’ve just about had enough of the relationship altogether.
This has been Dahyun’s thing coming from 2020’s Bring It Back, 2021’s Cruel, and 2022’s That’s all I’m saying — emotionally charged breakup songs that make you feel as if she’s gone through a dozen bad relationships. Dispatch, do your job better, or don’t, I don’t really know.
Another highlight of the song is the post-chorus going into the bridge. This segment reiterates the structure from the first post-chorus — a barrage of drums supported by the rhythmic strumming of a bass guitar in the back along with a consistent synth filling out the soundscape. But this time, it’s Dahyun and Chaeyoung on the rap:
My limit, can’t stand it anymore
My patience, invisible
It’s lost, can’t find it, oh, it’s all gone
Even if I try to turn back, it’s too late
There’s no use for you anymore
All free, no tears, none left, it’s long Gone
Followed by Momo and Dahyun holding down the bridge
With your flipping mind, you’re on the way out
I know that you know what I’m talking ‘bout
Nothing you could say
That could turn this ‘round
I’m Gone
[English translation adjusted to fit the cadence of the Korean syllables.]
Continuing the disrespected theme of the song, Dahyun notes that she’s finally had enough; instead of reasoning and pondering to herself the mistake that this relationship was, she concludes that it’s time to pack her bags and go. Chaeyoung adding on that there’s no point salvaging what was once there for all of it is long gone.
Momo and Dahyun round it off by telling the listener that there’s no point trying to reason with them or playing naive, they fucked up and there’s no coming back.
Can I just say, it is a bit of a shame that Chaeyoung’s rapping popped off in this album whilst Dahyun only has this one verse that she shares with Chaeyoung, but it just sounds so good how Dahyun eases in after the chorus with her light rapping tone and transitioning into singing. She even holds the “gone” in a little crescendo for some added pizzazz.
And, there’s no way I’m not going to talk about Momo’s vocals in this bridge. Damned if she only got 1 line to use it in, her lower register is incredible. She sounds so smooth singing in this tone. All of TWICE do in particular but there is nary a weak vocal performance in this album.
To close the song off, a wash of synths get to have their shine in the spotlight, showered with Nayeon’s belting, signifying the dramatic and drawn out conclusion of this partnership. As an aside, I think this outro sounds like a GOT7 song.

THE GOOD
- They’ve still got a few surprises left
- Thundering chorus
- 2nd rap and bridge combo
- Bitter, crumbling relationship theme
Needs Work
- I’m not a huge fan of Momo’s delivery in the 1st rap — she may have the best tone of the rap line but she has less experience
- The post-chorus in general, specifically the first one, can be a bit tiring on repeat listens
Life Highlight
- Actually, I think this song sounds like a mix between a GOT7 song, BLACKPINK’s Love To Hate Me, and Dahyun’s Bring It Back. I don’t know where I got this thought synthesized from, but it stuck

Going back to that point about the first rap, or, more accurately, that first post-chorus as a whole; songs that have the production continue unchanged into the post-chorus/2nd verse are very hit or miss for me. And with a chorus as powerful as this, I’m expecting what follows to either contrast or “snap” into place right after the chorus. The post-chorus going into the bridge contrasts Dahyun’s light tone with the hard-hitting production, continuing the energy until it slowly fades into silence at the end of the bridge.
I guess how I view the first post-chorus is that it’s somewhere in the middle. Momo’s rap is trying to match the intensity of the production while Chaeyoung slows it down to lead into verse 2, but Momo’s delivery isn’t as clean as Dahyun’s. That could be attributed in part to the amount of lyrics, the vocal director, the melody constructed for that specific part, or just how loud the production is compared to the vocal mix — it could be any one of those factors because Momo, as proven by Hello, is capable of an insane flow.
Either or, as much as TWICE have been experimenting with their sound for the past 4 years now, I’m happy they’re still finding new ways to explore what they’re capable of. And for that alone, even though I’m not a big fan of songs like these where they rely on sounding “big”, Dahyun’s lyricism and the thrill I receive every time I indulge myself in this song when I listen to it in the first time in a while elevates it to a 8/10. Keep on breaking hearts, Dubu.



INVINCIBLE
SUPERHEROES



When We Were Kids 🧸

Press play to reminisce, pull up lyrics to cry
Sole lyricist credit: Dahyun
This song is so beautiful. I’m totally not writing this song review, crying on the bus, reminiscing about my childhood, while just having turned 21. I don’t know if these are happy or sad tears but this song is so beautiful either way.
Warm synths, muted piano, a gentle high hat, the younger members starting off the song — this has to be up there for one of the softest TWICE songs ever. And as it should, it’s one of the TWICEiest songs ever. And then Nayeon comes in
Invincible superheroes, we wanted to be adults
To the higher, clearer world
The chords start swelling, the high hat keeps pace, and then the harmonies come in
Remember when we were kids
When we were kids, we didn’t know
If we could go back
I will love it even more
Remember when we were kids
Jihyo takes up the second half of the chorus as it drops, trading the strings for an almost R&B synth production — if choir R&B takes off, this song started it. The song relishes in this cacophony of warm sounds until going back into its sparse and peaceful verses.
This time, the hints of piano are louder, little twinkling synths begin to shimmer, the drum buildup comes and Jeongyeon drives the song straight into the chorus. No time for the strings to build like in Nayeon’s — this song loves its chorus so much.
And can I just take this time to appreciate the amount of Jeongyeon vocals in this album. Her voice is so clean, stable, and projected — but also more tender and soft compared to the more pronounced tones of Nayeon and Jihyo.
The bridge comes in, repeating the phrase
I wish that I could meet
Could meet the younger me
Giving the song time to rest, before building back up to the last chorus — this time lead by Jihyo, transitioning from the bridge with her own unique lead-in, completing the 3MIX trifecta. And interestingly enough, Chaeyoung follows up in the second half of the chorus, rather than another member of the vocal line. She really did pop off in this album.
As the last chorus begins to close, the percussion at its strongest, the harmonies as prolific as they can get, the background choir vocals cranked up to their Sunday best, is the song going to end? Of course not! This is an album full of banger endings as if the songs don’t want to actually end, and When We Were Kids being the album closer very much indulges in that feeling.
After a brief refrain, supported by Nayeon’s high note with a touch of vibrato, the song almost dives back into a fourth chorus. Nayeon and Jeongyeon harmonize — an especially rare and heavenly moment. And the song repeats the bridge, reiterating that they want to meet their younger selves, this time with the more lush R&B production before closing with silence, a few piano notes, and Tzuyu singing the last line of the song
Oh, we were kids
Reflection, acceptance, hope.
What a song.

THE GOOD
- Heavenly vocals throughout
- Generous harmonies
- Relatable, heartfelt lyrics
- Euphoric chorus
- Great closer to the album
Needs Work
- Refrain after the last chorus could’ve been executed better
Life Moment
- For an album titled Between 1&2, I don’t think anything hits harder than finishing the song reviews, with this song in particular, during your 21st birthday

I wrote the first part of this review during the beginning of November. Then school, life, and other things got in the way of my headspace for me to feel confident about wrapping all of this up. In a way, I felt like I just didn’t want this review to end because of the sheer joy that writing gives me. I didn’t want the happiness to end. And then it hit me, after watching a YouTuber rank animated movies and them placing Spirited Away at the top and explaining “why” reminded me of just how important growing up is, and by extension this song.
This theme is important for both the rookie TWICE members in 2015 and the teenagers who would follow their journey and grow up with them, facing life’s obstacles along the way. Hardships that used to only involve family, crushes, hell, even what my next Instagram story should look like, evolve into working and commitments and all the struggles that adult life brings. Being a kid and enjoying the simple things in life is one of the most sought after moments we want to relive because we took growing up for granted. The only thing we can do now is look back on ourselves with fondness and rose-tinted lenses.
TWICE’s marketing message was originally to resonate with people through their senses and their hearts. That was during their debut, and I think it still holds up today. Touching people through their emotions is what TWICE, in my opinion, does best and is what makes them one of K-pop’s all time greats. It was never about having the best numbers, it was always about being the best idols. And to think that this journey of maturation and growth would occur from 2015 all the way to this song, being a fitting nod to TWICE’s 7th anniversary, I don’t think anyone at the company nor the group would ever imagine that they could get this far. It’s these nine women or none — 10/10.



Epilogue

submitted by smolcrackheadenergy to u/smolcrackheadenergy [link] [comments]


2023.06.02 23:41 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]


2023.06.02 23:40 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]