10-day forecast for port clinton ohio
Port Clinton
2019.03.11 00:31 lilwalt5 Port Clinton
This is the official subreddit page for Port Clinton Ohio. We really don't care what you post as long as it is about PC.
2020.01.07 03:36 chronic-reader HarleyDilly
A place to discuss the case of Harley Dilly, the 14 year-old boy who went missing from Port Clinton, Ohio on December 20th, for 3 weeks before his body was recovered on January 13th, 2020.
2008.03.29 08:05 AFL: Everything Australian Football
AFL: The home of Australian rules football on Reddit, including the Australian Football League and all other aspects of the game. To assign a user flair to yourself on desktop, expand the community options menu below and click the pencil icon by your username. On mobile, tap the 3 dots beside your profile picture and select "change user flair"
2023.06.03 03:54 RealBenjaminKerry Hybridization: The gravitational effect of foreign analysis material upon Chinese discourse over Ukraine War
The first essay In the previous post, I have discussed about the skirmishes on all corners of the internet, the systematic destruction of idea by algorithms, and the apocalyptic wasteland that is the Chinese internet. All were discussed in the last post, however, one thing was neglected from the picture: the “eldritch influence“.
In the first post, I have mentioned an intensive effort launched by RT and CCP to shape the narrative in favor of the invasion. However, as previously mentioned, due to a myriad of reasons, the entire effort lays to waste in the lone and level sands that stretch far away. They have abandoned their old way of setting up positions on RT's main channel and their Donbass offshoot "Donbass Today". In fact, back then DPR was extremely successful in their propaganda machine before Belgorod attacks. The amount of DPR lies actually made me lost my shit multiple times. You would never want to know what ideas I had to deal with the people of Donbass, in fact it almost becomes a rage trigger to me. Despite that, the pro-Russians stragglers are still there, and they are adapting. Nobody has declared surrender yet, so the war will just drag on, as Clausewitz has observed. Many of them are now operating purely out of spite, resembling the worst of the trolls in the west and their rhetoric began to be more similar to their twitter counterpart. Meanwhile, the Russian influence campaign is still ongoing in a more insidious and covert way. The internet arguments become more like
UkraineRussiaReport than
RussianWarFootage. The main focus of Russian influence campaign seems to be dedicated to creating artificial disinfolklores and some
legitimately weird channels showcasing how good life is in occupied Mariupol. Sometimes pro-Ukraine content creators will be subjected to mass report and get banned, but most of times they have a backup account to minimize damage.
As previously mentioned, the Chinese domestic "analysts", one being pro-Russia and the other being pro-Ukraine, both ended up being noncredible, with one being Chinese Chuck Pfarrer and the other making schizo claims like Zaluzhnyi has intimate relationship with several female service members (is this supposed to make him look bad?) Of course, people began to adapt. On the pro-Ukraine side, there is now a guy called "Regent Taboritsky" (
塔博里茨基摄政王 yes, this is a TNO reference). He was formerly a pro-Russian who use Artermovisk but has changed to the Ukrainian side. Meanwhile, other "analysts" has also underwent evolution. (ignore the next two paragraphs if you just want to read noncredible)
Do you remember the TNO reference? Why does Chinese also know about that? Actually, it shaped all Chinese political discourse. Chinese internet is a wasteland at best, years of censorship and bitter warfare has drained the land of creativity and independent thought. Many of the counterculture guys who I refer as PANOP (pan-opposition, an umbrella term for modern anti-establishment Chinese) are actually pro-regime folks who ended up graduating from college and have to work 12 hours a day. Despite having changed side, they are actually just the same, same mindlessness and malice, nothing more, nothing less. Meanwhile, censorship algorithms have systematically salted the earth, so that no organized ideology apart from the official one can be present. These efforts are eventually made futile thanks to one man - JREG (yes, you can trust your eyes). His political compass memes successfully provided the PANOPs with enough munition to blow up the internet. Eventually everything related to him got censored, but then TNO was there, the weapons are now everywhere, no amount of salt would ever stop them again. It's like the wars in Japan that lead to Edo period in many regards, battles with salvaged foreign ideas and memes where getting hold of foreign material becomes an immense power multiplier.
In fact, I have a very derogatory comparison for Chinese internet's relationship to the global one: the anaerobic tank of a sewage treatment plant. The worst crap of 4chan and beyond sedimented into the Chinese one, just like how the large excrement particles sedimented into the anaerobic tank after the initial aerobic respiration, and our netizens feasted on it like bacteria feasted on the fresh excrements. (my knowledge of sewage treatment comes from IGCSE biology, so it might be inaccurate). One of the most terrifying case of how this can influence Chinese internet was the alt-righters in '16. Actually, the largest case of the great meme war spillover was in China. During that time, everyone was fuming about Baizuo, the Chinese equivalent of SJW, while some others do stand for Bernie, most are taking up Great Replacement Theory and mocking Trans ideology. Many began to take Breivik as a hero and claim refugees are swarming Europe. Pizzagate was also a widespread meme back then. This exposure left a mark in the Chinese internet culture, which partially contributed to the recent surge in antisemitism in '23. To be honest with you all, after spending years on Chinese internet, I just can't stand regular Chinese netizen calling Azov guys neo-Nazi, they should look into the nearest mirror.
The hybridization described above then contributes to a new evolution of Chinese online discourse over the Ukraine war. Chinese posters are expert trolls and partisans, but they have a fundamental lack of first hand knowledge regarding war in Ukraine. Thus, contact with foreign sources becomes essential. On Zhihu, there are several accounts that have access to twitter OSINT accounts (accounts that are highly regarded by professionals). The most notable being
Ducling, who have been a staunch pro-Ukraine guy with liberal tendency. He made a
reference to Emil Kastehelmi:"The Russian 'Special Military Operation' is getting increasingly special, even after day 453" for an question about the Belgorod attack. He also made a cope compilation (the most favored tactic of Chinese pro-Ukraine accounts, known as 合订本, that collects all the past pro-Russian claims as a method of discrediting the pro-Russians. Often with great effect )
of claims surrounding Bakhmut. For people who can't understand the information presented, Chinese internet slang was often designed to evade censorship and is highly informal, so you shouldn't understand it at all. There's another OSINT guy called Suyi控, who made the
best analysis of the Discord files ever. Chinese OSINT guys tend to have a boner for Syrskyi, me included. Memelords have also adopted some stuff from twitter, I remember seeing the Putin attending Nuremburg escorted by fellas wearing MP uniforms on the profile on one of the accounts. At the same time, there are also pro-Russians who use the John McBurgers of Ohio oblast under Zelensky's tweet as proof of Ukraine is losing. This tactic can be incredibly effective due to confirmation bias, and in many cases RT have used the exact same material to propagandize both Chinese and Americans.
Bilibili, due to the limitations mentioned in the first article, relies on cruder extraction. There is a guy called Deepstate-carry (
Deepstate-搬运) who basically cargo-cult through deepstatemap's telegram. In my opinion, the best combat footages come from a guy called Okken sight (
欧肯视线), who is a true neutral source regarding combat footage, he contain a slight Russian bias but his videos are neutral, which led to him being criticized by both pro-Russians and pro-Ukrainians. I'd recommend folks on this sub who drank too much pro-Ukraine vranyo to be tied on a chair forced to watch his videos of both Russian and Ukrainian combat losses to remove overt bias and complacency. Meanwhile there are other pro-Ukrainian accounts such as CarlPacho (
卡尔帕乔) who uploads Ukrainian combat footages and is a pro-Ukraine guy himself, recently he got banned but he's got a backup account. Meanwhile there are people translating Battle Order's videos, such as a guy called
101eagle and a guy who's called Marine rifleman (
四等人的步枪兵). On Bilibili the materials used are often of inferior quality such a a gal doing analysis who is called frosty leaves of a thousand spring (千秋霜叶), her sources include Weeb Union (HistoryLegends' pal) and Chuck Pfarrer. She's pro-Ukraine by the way.
Now we have talked through all the developments of the pro-Ukraine side, let's face the pro-Russian abyss. As mentioned before, Bilibili has access to inferior foreign materials. Meanwhile pro-Russians coopt the pro-Russian war blogger model. The most notorious model being a guy known as SnailColgiweibo (
蜗牛柯基weibo) who is basically a Rybar copycat, he is capable of mimicking Rybar to an astonishing degree and has the ability to cheer during Kyiv bombing (what about Donbass). I'd recommend you to stay away from Chinese internet unless you want to be dehumanized like me.
Recently, another person called Atuna (
阿吞啊) popped up, he is some of the most capable pro-Russian ever. At first, he came out with translation of a
RUSI report. However, in his next video, he uses HistoryLegends. Calling him a "neutral pro-Ukraine source". He marked a dangerous new development of pro-Russian messaging, the ability to use actual credible western sources to their advantage. Furthermore, there is another analyst called Mt. Guandong peasant Wangdaxi (关东山农民王大喜), who made a video detailing
RUSI's latest report. He took great note of the adaptation by the Russian armed forces while dismissing the mentions of poor Russian morale as "western hubris", "illogical" and "political correctness". The Wangdaxi person is actually a protégé of sort of the person who claimed Russia is going to take Lviv (that guy deserves his own article), and it seems like now there's an advanced sect of pro-Russian who have access to information. One of his fans in the comments even took a jab at Suyi控, indicating a capability to compete with even the most experienced Zhihu OSINTer. And to make it worse, HistoryLegend serves as a force multiplier of this next-generation pro-Russia crowd. He is basically an A-10 in this "comment section war", he and his pal WeebUnion exerts little use to pro-Russians on YouTube, Reddit and twitter, as the pro-Russian effort is largely focused on amplifying western internal grievances such as the border crisis and China baiting. On 4chan his soyjak face will get mocked to oblivion. However, he truly shines in China. Perun's videos are too lengthy to be translated, meanwhile military history visualized have a long interval and Lazerpig is relatively obscure in China due to meme incompatibility and being too noncredible, he is unrivaled. The way he feigned a neutral pro-Ukraine stance makes it even more damaging, even to the point of starting a disinfolklore began to be built around him, claiming he cried during the fall of Bakhmut, claiming he was a pro-Ukraine guy ostracized by other due to unwilling to follow blindly pro-UA lines.
Warning: Schizo rant below, proceed with caution
Want to hear my stance? Well, maybe they are the right guys all along. I'm not really a member of this sub, I'm always cynical, always skeptical, and always doubtful. Whenever I see the next generation pro-Russians, I become shrouded in doubts. What if they are right? In many cases pro-Ukraine folks are drawn into intellectual traps, such as the need to hold Bakhmut, a city with little strategical importance. And a lack of acknowledgement of Russian adaptation. It could be the Winter War all over again, the Finn fought valiantly, but who controls Karelia now? I have an irrational fear, may it remain irrational, that the average NCD user is no better than the new generation of pro-Russians, that we also lack any critical thinking capability like a mindless horde. The doubt just echoes inside me, it accompanies me whenever I saw a Ukraine flag on someone's twitter handle. Such cynicism often end up manifesting into outbursts against pro-Ukraine positions on reddit. I took a grim enjoyment being the "conscience of NCD" where I regard many as vranyo obsessed individuals no better than the vatniks. If there's anyone reading the passage whose uncle work at GUR, don't ask him to [REDACTED] that soyjak off the surface of the earth. Don't. Chinese opinion does not chance the course of the war. If I have a button to delete Jackson Hinkle's twitter account at the course of every single pro-Ukraine account in China, I'd press it. We can achieve nothing, absolutely nothing. It's a losing battle from the beginning. Such is the reality of Chinese internet.
I see a bad moon rising.
submitted by
RealBenjaminKerry to
NonCredibleDefense [link] [comments]
2023.06.03 03:46 nrose21 Update - Prime - A HEAVILY Modified Version of S-GPT
v1.1 - Removed the "Roles" in favor of adding adjustable temperature and top_p values and other minor fixes.
This is a modified version of Federico Viticci’s S-GPT shortcut. It has all the capabilities of S-GPT and more. Reply “stop” to end the shortcut.
Prime is a shortcut to have conversations with OpenAI's ChatGPT assistant on your iPhone, iPad, and Mac. The shortcut supports both text conversations as well as voice interactions when used inside Siri. You can also start a conversation through the Share Sheet, where Siri Prime will do its best to summarize the input and then allow you to talk about it. The shortcut requires a helper shortcut called Prime Encoder that needs to be downloaded separately. Persona Mode requires an ElevenLabs API key and a Voice ID to be entered in Prime Encoder. Privacy permission pop ups will appear during the first run of the shortcut, first run of some of the “Modes”, and for various “Actions”, like saving a file, when they are used for the first time. Some of these will show up multiple times, which is normal for the way the Shortcut is made. Choose “always allow” to avoid these in the future.
Setup: You will need to create a folder called “Siri Prime” in your iCloud drive. In the “Siri Prime” folder, you will need to make 4 more folders:
- Siri Prime Memory - Include 3 sub folders called “Chat”, “Share Sheet”, and “Persona”. This will be the save location for different memories.
- Siri Prime Audio Files - Include 2 sub folders called "Intros" and "Replies". This will be the save location for the audio files created in Persona Mode.
- Siri Prime Chat Export - Include 2 sub folders called “Latest Response” and “Full Chat”. This will be the save location for "Export Chat" trigger.
- Siri Prime Pictures - This will be the save location for the Picture Mode.
Siri Prime's Modes: Say or type “run (trigger) mode” to activate. The “run” phrases can be said at any point in your response to allow for more fluid activation. Some of these modes are available through Siri, but I wanted to add them to Siri Prime to increase functionality.
Triggers:
•Export Chat - Brings up a menu with various export options, then stops the shortcut.
•Clipboard - Siri Prime will interact with your clipboard. Ex: “Summarize my clipboard” or “Draft a polite response to the message in my clipboard”.
•Live Text - Siri Prime will gather and summarize text from the selected photo.
•Schedule - Siri Prime will check the next 5 days for events and availability.
•Playlist - Siri Prime will create the requested playlist in Apple Music.
•Weather - Siri Prime will provide you with a friendly weather report for anywhere in the world.
•Forecast - Siri Prime will provide you with a friendly 10 day forecast for anywhere in the world.
•Picture - Siri Prime will take a basic idea for a picture and spruce it up for Dall-e.
•Persona (Due to a bug with Siri and the “Play Sound” action, this is best run from the shortcut)- Siri Prime will start a conversation as the chosen ElevenLabs voice. Remaining words for your account will be displayed in the user input prompt. Reply “Stop” to end Persona Mode.
•Message - Siri Prime will take a basic idea for a SMS message and spruce it up before sending it to the selected contact. Contacts are selected by first name.
•Maps - Siri Prime will search nearby for the given criteria and then get directions for your choice.
•Wallet - Siri Prime will send or request money from the selected contact.
Links:
-Prime:
https://www.icloud.com/shortcuts/798444bafe3e4715b29f071f54fda9b3 -Prime Encoder:
https://www.icloud.com/shortcuts/0d73cb1702f94cd7996ad5d632479de4 submitted by
nrose21 to
shortcuts [link] [comments]
2023.06.03 03:24 wtfwafflezor (Selling) 800 Titles Dungeons & Dragons Vudu HD iTunes 4K $8 Batman 2022 Vudu HD $2.50
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Crawl (2019) (Vudu/HD) $3 (iTunes/4K) $2
Creed Collection 1-3 (Vudu/HD) $13
Creed III (2023) (Vudu/4K) $10
Croods (2013) & A New Age (2020) (MA/HD) $6.75
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (2001) (MA/4K) $7.75
Cruella (2021) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $3.50 (GP/HD) $2.50
Daddy's Home 1-2 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.25
Dances With Wolves (1990) (Vudu/HD) $6
Daniel Craig Collection 5-Movie (Vudu/4K) $20
Dark Tower (2017) (MA/HD) $3
Dark Waters (2019) (MA/HD) $5.75
Darkest Hour (2017) (MA/HD) $3
Dawn of The Planet of The Apes (2014) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4
Day After Tomorrow (2004) (MA/HD) $6.75
DC League of Super-Pets (2022) (MA/4K) $8 (MA/HD) $5
Deadpool (2016) (MA/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2
Deadpool 2 (2018) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $3.25
Death on the Nile (2022) (MA/HD) $5 (GP/HD) $3.50
Deepwater Horizon (2016) (Vudu/4K) $5 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.50
Dentist Collection 1-2 (1996-1998) (Vudu/HD) $5.25
Detective Knight Collection 1-3 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $15 $5.75 Each
Devotion (2022) (iTunes/4K) $6.50
Diary of a Wimpy Kid (2010) (MA/HD) $4.50
Die Hard (1988) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $4
Die Hard 1-5 (MA/HD) $16 $4.75 Each
Dirty Dancing (1987) (Vudu/4K) $5 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.50
Dirty Grandpa (2016) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6
District 9 (2009) (MA/4K) $6.50
Django Unchained (2012) (Vudu/HD) $2.50
Do the Right Thing (1989) (MA/4K) $6
Doctor Strange (2016) (MA/4K) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) $4 (MA/HD) $3.50 (GP/HD) $1.75
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $2.75 (GP/HD) $2
Dog (2022) (Vudu/HD) $3
Dolittle (2020) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $3.50
Don't Worry Darling (2022) (MA/HD) $5.50
Doors (1991) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4.50
Dora and the Lost City of Gold (2019) (Vudu/HD) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) $4.25
Downsizing (2017) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $1.25
Downton Abbey (2019) (MA/HD) $5.50
Downton Abbey: A New Era (2022) (MA/HD) $3.75
Dr. Seuss' How The Grinch Stole Christmas (2000) (iTunes/4K) $5.50 (MA/HD) $5
Dracula 2000 (2000), II: Ascension (2003) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $10.50
Dracula Untold (2014) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $2.75 (iTunes/4K) $4
Draft Day (2014) (Vudu/HD) $3.25 (iTunes/HD) $2.50
Dragged Across Concrete (2019) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
Dragonheart 5-Movie (MA/HD) $15
Drive (2011) (MA/HD) $4.25
Dumbo (2019) (MA/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) $5.25 (GP/HD) $2.50
Dune (2021) (MA/4K) $5.50
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (2023) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/4K) $8
Dunkirk (2017) (MA/4K) $6.50
Dying of the Light (2014) (Vudu/HD) $2.25
E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982) (MA/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) $5 (MA/HD) $3
Earth Girls Are Easy (1988) (Vudu/HD) $5.75
Edward Scissorhands (1990) (MA/HD) $3
Eighth Grade (2018) (Vudu/HD) $5.75
Elvis (2022) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $4
Elysium (2013) & District 9 (2009) (MA/HD) $7.75
Elysium (2013) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $3.25
Emoji Movie (2017) (MA/HD) $2.25
Encanto (2021) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) (GP/4K) $3.50
Epic (2013) (MA/HD) $1.75 (iTunes/SD) $1.25
Equalizer 2 (2018) (MA/4K) $7.25 (MA/HD) $2.75
Escape from L.A (1996) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6
Eternals (2021) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $4.50 (GP/HD) $3
Everest (2015) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $3 (iTunes/4K) $4
Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022) (Vudu/4K) $7.50
Ex Machina (2015) (Vudu/4K) $6.50 (Vudu/HD) $4
Exodus: Gods and Kings (2014) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $3
Expendables 1-3 (Vudu/HD) $4.50
Eyes of Tammy Faye (2021) (GP/HD) $4.25
F9: The Fast Saga + Director's Cut (2021) (MA/4K) $5.25 (MA/HD) $3.25
Fabelmans (2022) (MA/HD) $6.50
Fahrenheit 451 (2018) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4.50 (GP/HD) $3
Fantastic Beasts Collection 1-3 (MA/HD) $7.75
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (2022) (MA/4K) $5.25 (MA/HD) $3
Fantastic Four (2015) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.50
Farewell, The (2019) (Vudu/HD) $5.50
Fast & Furious Collection 1-9 (MA/HD) $10
Fatale (2020) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $3.75
Father Stu (2022) (MA/HD) $5.50
Fatherhood (2021) (MA/HD) $3.75
Fault in Our Stars (2014) (MA/HD) $1.75
Fences (2016) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $1.75
Ferris Bueller's Day Off (1986) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $6
Field of Dreams (1989) (MA/4K) $7.50 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $6
Fifth Element (1997) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $6
Fifty Shades of Grey 3-Movie + Unrated (MA/HD) $9.75
Finding Dory (2016) (MA/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) $3.50 (GP/HD) $1.25
Finding Nemo (2003) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) $5.25 (GP/HD) $3
Finest Hours, The (2016) (MA/HD) $6.25 (GP/HD) $3.75
First Cow (2019) (Vudu/HD) $6.50
First Man (2018) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $4.25
Flashdance (1983) (Vudu/4K) $6.75
Flatliners (2017) (MA/HD) $4.25
Footloose (2011) (Vudu/HD) $5 (iTunes/HD) $3.50
Ford v Ferrari (2019) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $4.75
Forever My Girl (2018) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3.75
Forrest Gump (1994) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.50
Fox and the Hound (1981) (MA/HD) $6.50 (GP/HD) $5
Frankenstein (1931) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4.50
Free Guy (2021) (MA/4K) $7.50 (MA/HD) $4.75 (GP/HD) $3.25
Fruitvale Station (2014) (Vudu/HD) $4
Full Metal Jacket (1987) (MA/4K) $6.50
Fury (2014) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $4.50
G.I. Joe: Retaliation (2013) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.75
Gamer (2009) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.50
Gemini Man (2019) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.25
Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance (2012) (MA/HD) $6.75
Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2021) (MA/4K) $7.50 (MA/HD) $3.50
Girl on the Train (2016) (iTunes/4K) $2.25 (MA/HD) $2.50
Gladiator (2000) (Vudu/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5
Glass (2019) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $4.50
Glory (1989) (MA/4K) $7.75
Godfather Trilogy (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $14
Gods of Egypt (2016) (Vudu/4K) $5.25 (Vudu/HD) $2 (iTunes/4K) $1.50
Godzilla (1998) (MA/4K) $6.50
Good Will Hunting (1997) (Vudu/HD) $5.25
Goosebumps 2 (2018) (MA/4K) $7.50 (MA/HD) $6.50
Gotti (2018) (Vudu/HD) $2
Grand Budapest Hotel (2014) (MA/HD) $3.75
Grease (1978), 2 (1982), Live! (2016) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $14
Greatest Showman (2017) (MA/HD) $2.25
Green Book (2018) (MA/4K) $7.25 (MA/HD) $5
Green Hornet (2011) (MA/HD) $6.50
Green Knight (2021) (Vudu/4K) $5.50
Green Lantern: Beware My Power (2022) (MA/HD) $3
Green Mile, The (1999) (MA/4K) $6
Greta (2019) (MA/HD) $5.25
Grey, The (2012) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $2.75
Groundhog Day (1993) (MA/4K) $8
Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) (MA/4K) $7.25 (iTunes/4K) $4.75 (MA/HD) $4 (GP/HD) $1.75
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) $4.25 (GP/HD) $1.25
Hacksaw Ridge (2016) (Vudu/4K) $4.50 (iTunes/4K) $3.50 (Vudu/HD) $2.25
Halloween (2018) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $4.25
Halloween Ends (2022) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $4.50
Halloween Kills (2021) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $4.25
Hancock (2008) (MA/4K) $6.50
Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters (2013) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $2.50
Hardcore Henry (2016) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3.50
Harriet (2019) (MA/HD) $4.25
Hate U Give (2018) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $4.50
Haunting in Connecticut (2009) (Vudu/HD) $6.50
Heat, The (2013) (MA/HD) $2.25 (iTunes/SD) $1
Heat: Director's Definitive Edition (1995) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $5.25
Heaven is for Real (2014) (MA/HD) $2.75
Heavy Metal (1981) (MA/4K) $6.50
Hell Fest (2018) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $3.75
Hell or High Water (2016) (Vudu/4K) $5.25 (Vudu/HD) $2.25 (iTunes/4K) $3.75
Hellboy (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4.25
Hellboy (Director's Cut) (2004) (MA/4K) $6.50
Hercules (2014) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $1.50
Hereditary (2018) (Vudu/HD) $3.75
Highlander (1986) (Vudu/4K) $5
Hitman's Bodyguard (2017) (Vudu/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard (2021) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4.75
Hobbs & Shaw (2019) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $3.75
Hocus Pocus (1993) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.75 (GP/HD) $2.25
Holmes And Watson (2018) (MA/HD) $3.75
Home (2015) (MA/HD) $2
Home Alone 1-2 (MA/HD) $7.50
Hope Springs (2012) (MA/HD) $2.50
Hostiles (2017) (Vudu/4K) $4.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
Hotel Mumbai (2019) (MA/HD) $5.25
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (2018) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $4.50
House of 1,000 Corpses (2003), Devil's Rejects (2005), 3 From Hell (2019) (Vudu/HD) $6
House of the Dragon: Season 1 (2022) (Vudu/4K) $9 (Vudu/HD) $5.50
House with a Clock in Its Walls (2018) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $3.75
How to Train Your Dragon (2010) (MA/4K) $6.50
How to Train Your Dragon Collection 1-3 (MA/HD) $7.50 $4.75 Each
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (2019) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $4.25
Howard the Duck (1986) (MA/4K) $7
Hunger Games Collection 1-4 (Vudu/HD) $6 (iTunes/4K) $12
Hunt for Red October (1990) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4.50
Hunter Killer (2018) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.75
Hurt Locker (2008) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.25
Hustle, The (2019) (iTunes/4K) $2.75
Hustlers (2019) (iTunes/4K) $3
I Feel Pretty (2018) (iTunes/HD) $1
I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (2007) (MA/HD) $4
I See You (2019) (iTunes/HD) $2.50
I, Frankenstein (2014) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $1.75
I, Tonya (2017) (MA/HD) $5.75
If I Stay (2014) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.75
Imitation Game, The (2014) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
Immortal Life Of Henrietta Lacks (2017) (iTunes/HD) $3.50
In the Heights (2021) (MA/4K) $5
Incredible Hulk (2008) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $5.25
Incredibles (2004) (MA/4K) $7.75 (iTunes/4K) $6.25 (GP/HD) $4.75
Incredibles 2 (2018) (MA/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) $4.50 (GP/HD) $2
Independence Day (1996) (MA/4K) $7.75 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $5.50
Indiana Jones 1-4 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $20
Infinite (2021) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5
Inglorious Bastards (2009) (MA/4K) $7
Inside Out (2015) (MA/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) $4.25 (GP/HD) $1.50
Instant Family (2018) (Vudu/HD) $2 (iTunes/4K) $1.50
Insurgent (2015) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4.25 (Vudu/HD) $3.50
Interstellar (2014) (Vudu/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) $5.75 (Vudu/HD) $4
Invisible Man (2020) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $3.75
Iron Man (2008) (MA/4K) $7.25 (iTunes/4K) $7 (GP/HD) $3
Iron Man 1-3 (MA/4K) $21 (iTunes/4K) $16 (GP/HD) $7.50
Iron Man 2 (2010) (MA/4K) $7.25 (iTunes/4K) $6.50 (GP/HD) $3
Iron Man 3 (2013) (MA/4K) $7.25 (iTunes/4K) $3 (MA/HD) $2.25 (GP/HD) $1.50
Iron Man and Hulk: Heroes United (2013) (MA/HD) $5.50
It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World (1963) (Vudu/HD) $6.75
It's a Wonderful Life (1946) (Vudu/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5
Jack and Jill (2011), Just Go with IT (2011) & That's My Boy (2012) (MA/SD) $9
Jack Reacher Collection 1-2 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $7
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (2016) (Vudu/4K) $5.50 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.75
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (2014) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
Jackass Forever (2022) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4
Jaws (1975) (MA/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.75
Jaws (1975) Jaws 2 (1978) Jaws 3 (1983) Jaws: The Revenge (1987) (MA/HD) $15.50
Jexi (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4.50
Jigsaw (2017) (Vudu/4K) $5 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2
JOBS (2013) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3.75
John Wick Collection 1-3 (Vudu/4K) $16.50 (iTunes/4K) $14.50 (Vudu/HD) $8
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4
Judy (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $3.75
Juice (1992) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.50
Jumanji (1995) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $6
Jumanji: Next Level (2019) & Welcome to the Jungle (2017) (MA/HD) $7.50
Jumanji: The Next Level (2019) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $5.50
Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle (2017) (MA/4K) $5.50 (MA/HD) $2 (MA/SD) $1
Jungle Book (1967) (MA/HD) $6 (GP/HD) $4
Jungle Book (2016) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $5.25 (GP/HD) $2.75
Jungle Book 2 (2003) (MA/HD) $6.50 (GP/HD) $5.50
Jungle Cruise (2021) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $3.75 (GP/HD) $3
Jurassic Park (1993) (MA/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (MA/HD) $3
Jurassic Park III (2001) (MA/4K) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (MA/HD) $3.50
Jurassic Park: The Lost World (1997) (MA/4K) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (MA/HD) $3
Jurassic World (2015) (MA/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (MA/HD) $2.75
Jurassic World Collection 1-5 (MA/4K) $20 (iTunes/4K) $17.50 (MA/HD) $10
Jurassic World Collection 1-6 (MA/4K) $23.50 (MA/HD) $11.50
Jurassic World: Dominion + Extended Cut (2022) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $4.25
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $1.75
Justice League x RWBY Super Heroes and Huntsmen Part One (2023) (MA/HD) $4
Justice Society: World War II (2021) (MA/4K) $5.50
Kick-Ass (2010) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4.50
Kid Who Would Be King (2019) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $4.75
Kid, The (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.25
Killing Kennedy (2013) (MA/HD) $6.50
Kin (2018) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3
King Kong (2005) (MA/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (MA/HD) $3.50
Kingsman: The Golden Circle (2017) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.75
Kingsman: The Secret Service (2015) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.25
Knight and Day (2010) (MA/HD) $6.50
Knives Out (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.25
Kung Fu Panda Collection 1-3 (MA/HD) $12.50
La La Land (2016) (Vudu/HD) $2.25 (iTunes/4K) $3.75
Lady and the Tramp (1955) (MA/HD) $5.75 (GP/HD) $3.75
Last Duel, The (2021) (MA/HD) $5.25 (GP/HD) $4
Last Night in Soho (2021) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $5.75
Last Witch Hunter (2015) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $1.50
Last Word (2017) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $4.75
Law Abiding Citizen (2009) (Vudu/4K) $7
Legion of Super Heroes (2023) (MA/HD) $5.50
Leprechaun Collection 1-7 (Vudu/HD) $14
Les Miserables (1998) (MA/HD) $7
Life of Pi (2012) (MA/HD) $2.50
Lightyear (2022) (MA/4K) $5 (MA/HD) $2.75 (GP/HD) $2
Lilo & Stitch (2002) & Stitch Has a Glitch (2005) (MA/HD) $10.50 (GP/HD) $6
Lincoln Lawyer (2011) (Vudu/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.50
Little (2019) (MA/HD) $4.50
Little Mermaid (1989) (MA/4K) $7.25 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $5.75 (GP/HD) $3.75
Live Die Repeat: Edge Of Tomorrow (2014) (MA/4K) $6.50
Lock Up (1989) (Vudu/4K) $5
Logan (2017) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.75
Lone Ranger (2013) (MA/HD) $4.50 (GP/HD) $2.50
Lone Survivor (2013) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) $2 (MA/HD) $1.50
Looper (2012) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $3
Lord of War (2005) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.50
Lost City, The (2022) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6
Love and Monsters (2020) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $7
Luca (2021) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $3.75 (GP/HD) $3.25
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (2022) (MA/HD) $5.50
Mad Max Collection 1-4 (Vudu/4K) $20
Madagascar Collection 1-4 (MA/HD) $14
Magnificent Seven (2016) (Vudu/4K) $6 (Vudu/HD) $2.50
Maleficent (2014) (MA/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $3 (GP/HD) $1.25
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (2019) (MA/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (GP/HD) $1.75
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (2018) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $1.75
Man on a Ledge (2012) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.50
Marry Me (2022) (MA/HD) $6.50
Marshall (2017) (MA/HD) $4.75
Martian - Extended Cut (2015) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $5.25
Martian (Theatrical) (2015) (MA/4K) $7.25 (MA/HD) $3.25
Mary Poppins Returns (2018) (MA/4K) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.50 (GP/HD) $2
Matrix: Resurrections (2021) (MA/4K) $5
Maze Runner (2014) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $5.50
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials (2015) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $6
Mechanic: Resurrection (2016) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3
Megan Leavey (2017) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $1.75
Memory (2022) (MA/HD) $3.50
Men (2022) (Vudu/HD) $3.75
Men in Black (1997) (MA/HD) $6.50
Men in Black 3 (2012) (MA/HD) $2.50
Men in Black Collection 1-3 (MA/HD) $15.50
Men in Black II (2002) (MA/HD) $6.75
Menu (2022) (MA/HD) $5.50 (GP/HD) $4
MIB: International (2019) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $4.75
Mickey & Minnie 10 Classic Shorts - Volume 1 (2023) (MA/HD) $5.75 (GP/HD) $4
Midway (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4
Mile 22 (2018) (iTunes/4K) $1.75
Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022) & Minions (2015) (MA/HD) $8
Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $5.25
Miss Bala (2019) (MA/HD) $3.75
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (2015) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2
Mission: Impossible Collection 1-6 (Vudu/4K) $25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $20
Mission: Impossible Fallout (2018) (Vudu/4K) $2.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.50
Moana (2016) (MA/4K) $7 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.75 (GP/HD) $2
Moneyball (2011) (MA/HD) $2.75
Monster Hunter (2020) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $4.25
Monsters University (2013) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) $5.75 (GP/HD) $3.50
Monty Python's The Meaning of Life (1983) (MA/4K) $7.25
Moonfall (2022) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5
Moonlight (2016) (Vudu/HD) $4
Moonrise Kingdom (2012) (MA/HD) $4.75
Morbius (2022) (MA/4K) $5.25 (MA/HD) $3.25 (MA/SD) $2.25
Mortal Engines (2018) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $3.25
Mortal Kombat Legends: Snow Blind (2022) (MA/HD) $5.50
Mother's Day (2016) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5
Mr. Peabody & Sherman (2014) (MA/HD) $3.25
Mulan (1998) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) $5.75 (GP/HD) $3
Mulan (2020) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $4 (GP/HD) $2.25
Mulan 2 (2005) (MA/HD) $3.75 (GP/HD) $2.75
Mummy, The (2017) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.75
Muppets Most Wanted (2014) (MA/HD) $6.25 (GP/HD) $4.50
Murder on The Orient Express (2017) (MA/HD) $2.75
My Boss's Daughter (2003) (Vudu/HD) $6
My Little Pony: The Movie (2017) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3.25
National Lampoon's Animal House (1978) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $5.25
Natural, The (1984) (MA/4K) $5
New Mutants (2020) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $5.25 (GP/HD) $2.75
News of the World (2020) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $3.75
Night at the Museum 3-Movie (MA/HD) $13.50 $6 Each (MA/SD) $9
Night School (Extended) (2018) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $3.75
Nightmare Alley (2021) (MA/HD) $4.50 (GP/HD) $3.50
Noah (2014) (Vudu/HD) $1.75 (iTunes/HD) $1.50
Nope (2022) (MA/4K) $8 (MA/HD) $5.75
Nope (2022), Get Out (2017) & Us (2019) (MA/HD) $10
Northman (2022) (MA/4K) $7.25 (MA/HD) $4.50
Notting Hill (1999) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3.75
Now You See Me 1-2 (Vudu/HD) $4 (iTunes/HD) $6.50
Nut Job (2014) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $1.75
Nutcracker and the Four Realms (2018) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $3 (GP/HD) $2.50
Oblivion (2013) (MA/4K) $7 (iTunes/4K) $3.50 (MA/HD) $2.25
Office Space (1999) (MA/HD) $7
Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood (2019) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $5
One Direction: This is Us + Extended Fan Edition (2013) (MA/HD) $3.25
Only The Brave (2017) (MA/HD) $5.50
Onward (2020) (MA/4K) $5.50 (MA/HD) $4 (GP/HD) $2.25
Operation Finale (2018) (iTunes/4K) $2.75
Ouija (2014) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $2.50
Our Kind of Traitor (2016) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
Overlord (2018) (Vudu/4K) $5 (Vudu/HD) $2.75 (iTunes/4K) $4
Oz the Great and Powerful (2013) (MA/HD) $2 (GP/HD) $1
Pacific Rim Uprising (2018) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $4.50
Parasite (2019) (MA/HD) $4.75
Passengers (2016) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $2.75
Paterno (2018) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4.25 (GP/HD) $2.75
Patriot Games (1992) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.50
Patriots Day (2017) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.50
Paul, Apostle Of Christ (2018) (MA/HD) $4.50
Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank (2022) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $6
Peanuts Movie (2015) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.25
Pearl (2022) (Vudu/HD) $5.50
Penguins of Madagascar (2014) (MA/HD) $2.75
Pet Sematary (1989) (Vudu/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) $4 (Vudu/HD) $3.75
Pet Sematary (2019) (Vudu/4K) $4.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.50
Pete’s Dragon (2016) (MA/HD) $6.25 (GP/HD) $4.25
Peter Pan (1953) (MA/HD) $6.25 (GP/HD) $4.75
Peter Pan: Return to Neverland (2002) (MA/HD) $6 (GP/HD) $4.50
Peter Rabbit (2018) & 2 (2021) (MA/HD) $8.50 $4.75 Each
Peter Rabbit (2018) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $4.75
Philadelphia (1993) (MA/4K) $7.75
Pineapple Express (Unrated Edition) (2008) (MA/HD) $6.50
Pitch Black - Unrated Director's Cut (2000) (MA/HD) $6
Pitch Perfect (2012) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $2.75 (iTunes/4K) $3.75
Pitch Perfect Collection 1-3 (MA/HD) $11.50
Pixels (2015) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $5.50
Planet of the Apes 1-3 (Newer) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $12
Power Rangers (2017) (Vudu/4K) $5.50 (iTunes/4K) $3.25 (Vudu/HD) $2.75
Precious (2009) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $6.25
Predator (1987), 2 (1990), Predators (2009), Predator (2018) (MA/HD) $11
Predator (2018) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $3.50
Pretty in Pink (1986) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.75
Prey for the Devil (2022) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6
Priceless (2016) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $5
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies (2016) (MA/HD) $6.50
Prophecy Collection 1-5 (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $14.50
Protege, The (2021) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.75
Proud Mary (2018) (MA/HD) $4.25
Psycho (1960), Rear Window (1954), The Birds (1963), Vertigo (1958) (MA/4K) $17
Pulp Fiction (1994) (Vudu/4K) $5.50 (Vudu/HD) $4.25 (iTunes/HD) $5.25
Punisher, The (2004) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (Vudu/HD) $5.25
Punisher: War Zone (2008) (Vudu/4K) $5.75
Purge, The (2013) (MA/4K) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $3
Purge: Anarchy (2014) (MA/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.75
Puss in Boots (2011) (MA/4K) $6.75
Queen of Katwe (2016) (MA/HD) $3.50 (GP/HD) $2.50
Raid 2 (2014) (MA/HD) $5.75
Raid: Redemption + Unrated (2012) (MA/HD) $5.75
Rambo Collection 1-5 (Vudu/HD) $12.50
Raya and the Last Dragon (2021) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $4.50 (GP/HD) $2.50
Ready or Not (2019) (MA/HD) $6.25
Red (2010) (Vudu/4K) $6.25
Red 2 (2013) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $1.50
Red Sparrow (2018) (MA/HD) $4.50
Replicas (2019) (Vudu/4K) $5.50
Requiem for a Dream - Director's Cut (2000) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.25
Rescuers, The (1977) (MA/HD) $6.50
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (2017) (MA/4K) $7.25 (MA/HD) $3.25
Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City (2021) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $4.50
Revenant, The (2015) (MA/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $3.25
Rhythm Section (2020) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Richard Jewell (2019) (MA/4K) $6.50
Riddick Collection 1-3 (Unrated) (MA/HD) $14
Ride Along 1-2 (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5 $2.75 Each
Rings (2017) (Vudu/HD) $2.75 (iTunes/HD) $1.50
Rise of the Guardians (2012) (MA/HD) $3.25
Robin Hood (2010) (MA/4K) $6.25
Robin Hood (2018) (Vudu/4K) $5 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
RoboCop (2014) (Vudu/HD) $2
Rocketman (2019) (Vudu/4K) $4.75 (iTunes/4K) $2.50 (Vudu/HD) $2.25
Rocky Horror Picture Show (1975) (MA/HD) $5.25
Rogue (2020) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $3.50
Roman J. Israel, Esq. (2017) (MA/HD) $3.50
Ron's Gone Wrong (2021) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $5.25 (GP/HD) $3.50
Rookie of the Year (1993) (MA/HD) $7.50
Room (2015) (Vudu/HD) $5
Rough Night (2017) (MA/HD) $4.25
Rumble (2022) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.75
Run Lola Run (1998) (MA/HD) $6.50
Same Kind of Different as Me (2017) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $2
Sandlot, The (1993) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $5
Saturday Night Fever (1977) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.25
Sausage Party (2016) (MA/HD) $4.75
Savages (2012) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $2.25
Saving Private Ryan (1998) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.50
Saw (2004) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.50
Saw Collection 1-7 (Vudu/HD) $10
Scarface (1983) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $5.25
Scary Movie 3 (2003) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $3
Schindler's List (1993) (MA/HD) $4.75
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World (2010) (MA/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $5.25
Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse (2015) (Vudu/HD) $3.75 (iTunes/HD) $2.75
Scream (1996) (Vudu/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.75
Scream 5 (2022) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.50
Scream Collection 1-3 (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $13.50
Secret Headquarters (2022) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/4K) $6
Secret in Their Eyes (2015) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $2.25
Secret Life of Pets 2 (2019) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $5
Selma (2015) (Vudu/HD) $3 (iTunes/HD) $2.25
Serenity (2005) (MA/HD) $3.50
Seriously Red (2022) (Vudu/HD) $6.75
Shack (2017) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $1.50
Shallows, The (2016) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD $4
Shang-Chi (2021) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $4.75 (GP/HD) $3
Shape of Water (2017) (MA/HD) $3.25
Shaun of the Dead (2004), Hot Fuzz (2007), World's End (2013) (MA/HD) $10
Shawshank Redemption (1994) (MA/4K) $6
Shazam! Fury of the Gods (2023) (MA/4K) $10
Sherlock Gnomes (2018) (Vudu/HD) $2.75 (iTunes/4K) $2.25
She's the Man (2006) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3.25
Shutter Island (2010) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.50
Sicario (2015) (Vudu/4K) $6 (Vudu/HD) $1.75 (iTunes/4K) $3
Sicario: Day of the Soldado (2018) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $3.75
Silent Night, Deadly Night: 3-Film Collection (1989-1991) (Vudu/HD) $6
Sin City (2005) (Vudu/HD) $5.75
Sing (2016) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.75
Sing 2 (2021) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $3.50
Sing Collection 1-2 (MA/HD) $6
Singin' in the Rain (1952) (MA/4K) $6.50
Skyscraper (2018) (MA/4K) $5.25 (MA/HD) $1.75
Sleeping Beauty (1959) (MA/HD) $3.50 (GP/HD) $2.50
Slender Man (2018) (MA/HD) $5.25
Smile (2022) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/4K) $6.75
Smokey and the Bandit (1977) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $3.75
Smokin' Aces (2007) (iTunes/4K) $5.75
Snow White and The Seven Dwarfs (1937) (MA/HD) $6 (GP/HD) $3.75
Snowden (2016) (MA/HD) $3.50 (iTunes/HD) $4
Snowman (2017) (MA/HD) $2.75
Sonic the Hedgehog (2020) (Vudu/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (2022) (Vudu/4K) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.50
Sorry to Bother You (2018) (MA/HD) $4.75
Soul (2020) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $3.75 (GP/HD) $2.25
Source Code (2011) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6
Space Jam (1996) (MA/4K) $5
Space Jam: A New Legacy (2021) (MA/4K) $5
Sparkle (2012) (MA/HD) $3.50 (MA/SD) $2.25
Speed (1994) (MA/4K) $5.25
Spider-Man (2002) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $5.50
Spider-Man 2 (2004) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $5.50
Spider-Man 3 (2007) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $5.50
Spider-Man Collection 1-8 (MA/HD) $26
Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) (MA/4K) $8 (MA/HD) $4
Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) (MA/4K) $8 (MA/HD) $1.75
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse (2018) (MA/HD) $5.25
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $3.75
Spiral (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.50
Spirit Untamed: The Movie (2021) (MA/HD) $4.25
Split (2017) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.75
SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water (2015) (Vudu/HD) $4.75 (iTunes/HD) $3.50
Spotlight (2015) (MA/HD) $5 (iTunes/HD) $3
Spy Who Dumped Me (2018) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Star Trek 1-3 (Vudu/4K) $18 (Vudu/HD) $9.50 (iTunes/4K) $13.50
Starship Troopers (1997) (MA/4K) $6.50
Stir of Echoes (1999) (Vudu/HD) $4.75
Straight Outta Compton (Unrated Director’s Cut) (2015) (MA/4K) $7.50 (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $2.50
Strange World (2022) (GP/HD) Ports to MA $4.25
Studio 666 (2022) (MA/HD) $6.75
Suburbicon (2017) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
Suffragette (2015) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $3
Suicide Squad, The (2021) (MA/4K) $5
Sully (2016) (MA/4K) $6.50
Sum of All Fears, The (2002) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.75
Super 8 (2011) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (Vudu/HD) $3.25 (iTunes/4K) $5
Super Buddies (2013) (MA/HD) $5 (GP/HD) $3.50
Super Troopers 2 (2018) (MA/HD) $3
Survive the Night (2020) (Vudu/4K) $4 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3
SW: A New Hope (1977) (MA/4K) $7 (iTunes/4K) $6.25 (GP/HD) $3.50
SW: Empire Strikes Back (1980) (MA/4K) $7 (iTunes/4K) $6.50 (GP/HD) $3.50
SW: Force Awakens (2015) (MA/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) $3.50 (GP/HD) $1
SW: Last Jedi (2017) (MA/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (GP/HD) $1
SW: Phantom Menace (1999) (MA/4K) $7.50 (iTunes/4K) $6.50 (GP/HD) $3.50
SW: Return of the Jedi (1983) (MA/4K) $7.25 (iTunes/4K) $6.50 (GP/HD) $3.50
SW: Revenge of the Sith (2005) (MA/4K) $7.50 (GP/HD) $3.50
Taken Collection 1-3 (MA/HD) $9
Tangled (2010) (MA/4K) $8 (MA/HD) $5 (GP/HD) $3.75
Teen Titans Go! & DC Super Hero Girls: Mayhem in the Multiverse (2022) (MA/HD) $4.75
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
Ten Commandments (1956) (Vudu/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.75
Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4.25
Terminator: Dark Fate (2019) (Vudu/4K) $6.50 (Vudu/HD) $3 (iTunes/4K) $2.50
Terms of Endearment (1983) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5
Think Like a Man (2012) & Two (2014) (MA/HD) $9
This Is The End (2013) (MA/HD) $5
Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $3.25 (GP/HD) $2
Thor: Ragnarok (2017) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $3.50 (GP/HD) $1.75
Thor: The Dark World (2013) (MA/4K) $7 (iTunes/4K) $4.50 (GP/HD) $2.25
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017) (MA/HD) $3.50
Till (2022) (iTunes/4K) $6.50
To Kill a Mockingbird (1962) (MA/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/HD) $4.50
Top Five (2014) (Vudu/HD) $4.75 (iTunes/HD) $3.50
Top Gun (1986) (Vudu/4K) $5 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Top Gun: Maverick (2022) (Vudu/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.75
Total Recall (1990) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.25
Tower Heist (2011) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $3.75
Toy Story 1-4 (MA/4K) $23 (iTunes/4K) $21 (GP/HD) $11.50
Training Day (2001) (MA/4K) $6.50
Transformers 1-5 (Vudu/4K) $30 (Vudu/HD) $23
Transformers: Last Knight (2017) (Vudu/4K) $4.75 (iTunes/4K) $2.25 (Vudu/HD) $2
Transporter, The (2002) (MA/HD) $6.25
Trolls Collection 1-2 (MA/HD) $6
Trolls World Tour (MA/HD) $5.50
Turbo (2013) (MA/HD) $2.25 (iTunes/SD) $1.25
Turning Red (2022) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $4 (GP/HD) $2.75
Umma (2022) (MA/HD) $4.75
Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent (2022) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.75
Unbreakable (2000) (MA/4K) $6 (GP/HD) $3.75
Uncharted (2022) (MA/4K) $5.50 (MA/HD) $3.25
Uncle Drew (2018) (Vudu/4K) $6.25 (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3
Uncut Gems (2019) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Underworld: Awakening (2012) (MA/HD) $1.75
Underworld: Blood Wars (2016) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $2.25
Unforgiven (1992) (MA/4K) $6.50
Untouchables, The (1987) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6
Us (2019) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $5.25
Van Helsing (2004) (MA/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.75
Venom (2005) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4.50
Venom (2018) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $3.25
Venom: Let There Be Carnage (2021) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $3.50
Vertigo (1958) (MA/HD) $4.75
Vice (2018) 'Christian Bale' (MA/HD) $4.25
Victor Frankenstein (2015) (MA/HD) $5.75
Vivo (2021) (MA/HD) $4
Vow, The (2012) (MA/HD) $3.50
Voyagers (2021) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.50
Walk, The (2015) (MA/HD) $4.75
Walking Dead: Season 11 (2021) (Vudu/HD) $6
Walking with Dinosaurs (2013) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $2.50
Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit (2005) (MA/HD) $6.75
Wanted (2008) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $6
War Dogs (2016) (MA/4K) $6.50
War for the Planet of the Apes (2017) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $3
War of the Worlds (1953) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.75
Warcraft (2016) (MA/4K) $5 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.25
Warm Bodies (2013) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2
Warrior (2011) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/HD) $4
Waterworld (1995) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $6
Wayne's World (1992) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.25
Welcome to Marwen (2018) (MA/4K) $4
West Side Story (2021) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) (GP/HD) $2.50
When the Bough Breaks (2016) (MA/HD) $4.50
Where the Crawdads Sing (2022) (MA/HD) $4.50
Where'd You Go Bernadette (2019) (MA/HD) $5.50
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot (2016) (Vudu/HD) $2.75 (iTunes/HD) $2
White Boy Rick (2018) (MA/HD) $5.25
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody (2022) (MA/HD) $5.75
Why Him? (2016) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2
Widows (2018) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $1.75
Wild Card (2015) (Vudu/HD) $4
Willow (1988) (MA/HD) $6.75
Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory (1971) (MA/4K) $5.25
Wizard of Lies (2017) (Vudu/HD) $5 (iTunes/HD) $4.25 (GP/HD) $3
Wolf Man (1941) (MA/4K) $6.50
Wolf of Wall Street (2013) (Vudu/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.50
Woman in Gold (2015) (Vudu/HD) $2.75
Woman King (2022) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $5.50
Wonder (2017) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3
Wonder Park (2019) (Vudu/HD) $3 (iTunes/4K) $2.25
Wonder Woman 1984 (2020) (MA/4K) $5
Woodlawn (2015) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3.75
Wraith, The (1986) (Vudu/HD) $5
X (2022) (Vudu/HD) $6.75
X-Men (2000), X2 (2003), X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) (MA/HD) $15
X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) (MA/HD) $7
X-Men: Dark Phoenix (2019) (MA/HD) $6
X-Men: Days of Future Past (2004) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.50 Rogue Cut (MA/HD) $5
X-Men: First Class (2010), Days of Future Past (2004), Apocalypse (2014) (MA/HD) $11
Zootopia (2016) (MA/4K) $7.25 (iTunes/4K) $5 (MA/HD) $4.50 (GP/HD) $3.25
submitted by
wtfwafflezor to
DigitalCodeSELL [link] [comments]
2023.06.03 03:14 OxyC377 [Race Day 1 - Sat 3 June 2023] Bench Racing ≫ Lets talk about the races when they are happening! × Keep it polite and put politics in the closet for a moment. × Lets pray for a safe continuation of the TT! × PS: We will talk about the races, so spoiler alert (try to look at at other new posts)
| Time Schedule - 10:30 AM (IOM Time) ⌇⌇ 11:30 (CEST) – Solo Warm Up session
- 11:45 AM (IOM Time) ⌇⌇ 12:45 (CEST) – Monster Energy Supersport Race 1 – 4 Laps
- 2:15 PM (IOM Time) ⌇⌇ 15:15 (CEST) – 3Wheeling.media Sidecar Race 1 – 3 Laps
Entry list https://preview.redd.it/6kf0jnanbp3b1.jpg?width=650&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=afbe1036ec46dad912fd61139c42a22027c53204 https://preview.redd.it/c3mkz3fpbp3b1.jpg?width=650&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c26c3c370b1b58ee614b5c894089435b3af264c1 https://preview.redd.it/ia5o8jhrbp3b1.jpg?width=650&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=224c1808f37e7a2fc41b0c75333bde2b3b9894a3 The weather Fastest 20 riders through the week on Supersport - Michael Dunlop – 127.557
- Dean Harrison – 127.216
- Peter Hickman – 127.206
- Davey Todd – 125.715
- Michael Browne – 125.049
- James Hillier – 124.761
- Jamie Coward – 124.675
- Jim Hind – 124.553
- Craig Neve – 123.727
- Dominic Herbertson – 123.362
- Rob Hodson – 123.195
- Conor Cummins – 122.783 (Latest news: Conor is out with an infection)
- Paul Jordan – 122.004
- Michael Evans – 121.826
- David Johnson – 121.788
- Pierre Yves Bian – 121.650
- Shaun Anderson – 121.566
- Joey Thompson – 121.086
- Raul Torras Martinez – 120.431
- Michal Dokoupil – 120.323
Read more: roadracingnews.co.uk Fastest top 20 combinations through the week in sidecars - Ben Birchall/Tom Birchall – 119.414 (Unofficial Sidecars lap record)
- Pete Founds/Jevan Walmsley – 118.159
- Ryan Crowe/Callum Crowe – 116.452
- Tim Reeves/Mark Wilkes – 113.509
- Alan Founds/Jake Lowther – 113.485
- Steve Ramsden/Matty Ramsden – 112.719
- Gary Bryan/Phil Hyde – 112.088
- Dave Molyneux/Dan Sayle – 112.082
- John Holden/Maxime Vasseur – 112.046
- Daryl Gibson/Tom Christie – 111.148
- Dan Knight/Ben Hughes – 110.118
- Greg Lambert/Andrew Haynes – 108.965
- John Saunders/James Saunders – 108.865
- Wayne Lockey/Matty Rostron – 107.069
- Shaun ChandleBen Chandler – 105.591
- Conrad Harrison/Andy Winkle – 105.536
- Darren Hope/Lenny Bumfrey – 104.644
- Andy King/Andrew Sigsworth – 104.586
- Mike Jackson/Jake Roberts – 104.562
- Michael Russell/Vicky Cooke – 103.541
Read more: roadracingnews.co.uk How to follow the races on TT+, Live Timing or Radio: ► here is ◀ all and more info. LETS ENJOY THIS RACEWEEK WITH EACHOTHER HERE!!! submitted by OxyC377 to RoadRacing [link] [comments] |
2023.06.03 02:30 CareServ09 Will I need to buy the $300 beverage add on
I will be going on the Adriatic Sea & Greek Gems for 7 days this early fall on resilient lady ship with my wife, we have the rocstar suite with the added $600 bar tab, we both can easily drink 8-10 drinks a day but do plan on doing excursions at ports. Do you think with the in room bar ''that is not bottomless'' and the $600 bar tab we will be okay or should I go with the extra $300 as well?
submitted by
CareServ09 to
VirginVoyages [link] [comments]
2023.06.03 02:24 Wolventhe6th Issues with the C-1 schecter hellraiser lefty
So recently I got a schecter c1 hellraiser lefty model from sweetwater.com but...well after 10 days the guitar would only use the bridge pickup(middle and neck positionson selector do not work) , changed out the battery for the actives then it was and after subsequent battery changes had remained only able to use the neck pickup. Anyways sweetwater shoots me a new guitar of the same make and model I pack up the old one to ship and when testing the new one only the neck pickup works. Battery was changed and cable was changed and pickup and volume knobs have been adjusted in both cases above no dice.The issue isn't the amp as my lyx pro lefty strat plays on it just fine. I suspect an issue woth the pickup selector, port or the wiring for the bridge haven't opened the control cavity yet (don't want to kill the warranty on accident or anything)
Has anyone else had this sort of issue with the hellraiser? If so was there a fix or what did you do ?
submitted by
Wolventhe6th to
Leftyguitarists [link] [comments]
2023.06.03 02:12 _Triple_ [STORE] 900+ KNIVES/GLOVES/SKINS, 50.000$+ INVENTORY. M9 Fade, M4 Poseidon, BFK Freehand, Crimson Kimono, Nomad Fade, Skeleton, Kara Lore, Bayo Autotronic, AWP Fade, Kara Damas, BFK Ultra, Kara Freehand, Kara Bright, M9 Damas, Omega, Tiger Strike, Flip MF, Bayo Tiger, Deagle Blaze, Talon & More
Everything in my inventory is up for trade. The most valuable items are listed here, the rest you can find in My Inventory
Feel free to Add Me or even better send a Trade Offer. Open for any suggestions: upgrades, downgrades / knives, gloves, skins / stickers, patterns, floats.
All Buyouts are listed in cash value.
KNIVES
★ Butterfly Knife Freehand FN #1, B/O: $2500
★ Butterfly Knife Ultraviolet FT, B/O: $822
★ Butterfly Knife Scorched FT, B/O: $616
⎯
★ Bayonet Tiger Tooth MW #1, B/O: $1300
★ Bayonet Autotronic FN, B/O: $1050
★ Bayonet Tiger Tooth MW, B/O: $629
★ Bayonet Bright Water FT, B/O: $326
★ Bayonet Safari Mesh BS, B/O: $233
⎯
★ Karambit Lore FT, B/O: $1110
★ Karambit Damascus Steel FT, B/O: $840
★ Karambit Freehand MW, B/O: $784
★ Karambit Bright Water MW, B/O: $759
⎯
★ M9 Bayonet Fade FN, B/O: $1801
★ M9 Bayonet Fade FN, B/O: $1801
★ M9 Bayonet Damascus Steel FN, B/O: $751
⎯
★ Nomad Knife Fade FN, B/O: $1156
★ Nomad Knife Slaughter MW, B/O: $544
★ Nomad Knife Blue Steel WW, B/O: $318
⎯
★ Flip Knife Marble Fade FN, B/O: $646
★ Flip Knife Doppler (Phase 4) FN, B/O: $574
★ Flip Knife Gamma Doppler (Phase 1) MW, B/O: $552
★ Flip Knife Case Hardened FT, B/O: $257
★ Flip Knife Freehand FT, B/O: $255
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife Bright Water FN, B/O: $287
⎯
★ Huntsman Knife Lore FN, B/O: $461
★ Huntsman Knife Gamma Doppler (Phase 4) FN, B/O: $436
★ Huntsman Knife Doppler (Phase 3) FN, B/O: $353
★ Huntsman Knife Autotronic FT, B/O: $212
★ Huntsman Knife Bright Water FT, B/O: $129
★ Huntsman Knife Forest DDPAT MW, B/O: $129
★ Huntsman Knife Forest DDPAT BS, B/O: $123
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife Rust Coat BS, B/O: $127
⎯
★ Bowie Knife Gamma Doppler (Phase 2) FN, B/O: $375
★ Bowie Knife Gamma Doppler (Phase 1) FN, B/O: $363
★ Bowie Knife Tiger Tooth FN, B/O: $269
★ Bowie Knife Crimson Web WW, B/O: $192
★ Bowie Knife Bright Water FN, B/O: $159
★ Bowie Knife Ultraviolet FT, B/O: $126
⎯
★ Stiletto Knife Slaughter FN, B/O: $616
★ Stiletto Knife Crimson Web FT, B/O: $412
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife Night Stripe FT, B/O: $227
⎯
★ Falchion Knife Lore FT, B/O: $214
★ Falchion Knife Autotronic FT, B/O: $192
★ Falchion Knife Scorched WW, B/O: $105
⎯
★ Survival Knife Crimson Web BS, B/O: $216
★ Survival Knife Case Hardened FT, B/O: $198
★ Survival Knife Scorched FT, B/O: $111
⎯
★ Shadow Daggers Fade FN, B/O: $368
★ Shadow Daggers Doppler (Phase 3) FN, B/O: $228
★ Shadow Daggers, B/O: $201
★ Shadow Daggers Damascus Steel FT, B/O: $108
★ Shadow Daggers Ultraviolet FT, B/O: $105
★ Shadow Daggers Black Laminate FT, B/O: $99
★ Shadow Daggers Forest DDPAT FT, B/O: $85
⎯
★ Gut Knife Doppler (Sapphire) MW #1, B/O: $1700
★ Gut Knife Gamma Doppler (Phase 1) FN, B/O: $223
★ Gut Knife Marble Fade FN, B/O: $203
★ Gut Knife Doppler (Phase 2) FN, B/O: $191
★ Gut Knife Case Hardened BS, B/O: $127
⎯
★ Navaja Knife Doppler (Phase 4) FN, B/O: $199
★ Navaja Knife Doppler (Phase 4) FN, B/O: $199
★ Navaja Knife, B/O: $138
★ Navaja Knife Damascus Steel FN, B/O: $111
⎯
★ Classic Knife Urban Masked FT, B/O: $146
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife Stained BS, B/O: $168
⎯
★ Ursus Knife Doppler (Phase 3) FN, B/O: $476
★ Ursus Knife, B/O: $375
⎯
★ Skeleton Knife, B/O: $1137
★ Talon Knife, B/O: $608
★ Paracord Knife, B/O: $305
★ Survival Knife Forest DDPAT FT, B/O: $97
GLOVES
★ Moto Gloves Transport MW, B/O: $204
★ Moto Gloves Polygon BS, B/O: $142
★ Moto Gloves Blood Pressure BS, B/O: $84
★ Moto Gloves Blood Pressure BS, B/O: $84
★ Moto Gloves 3rd Commando Company BS, B/O: $63
★ Moto Gloves 3rd Commando Company BS, B/O: $63
⎯
★ Specialist Gloves Crimson Kimono WW, B/O: $1215
★ Specialist Gloves Tiger Strike FT, B/O: $672
★ Specialist Gloves Lt. Commander FT, B/O: $305
★ Specialist Gloves Lt. Commander BS, B/O: $140
★ Specialist Gloves Crimson Web BS, B/O: $137
★ Specialist Gloves Buckshot FT, B/O: $75
⎯
★ Driver Gloves Crimson Weave FT, B/O: $359
★ Driver Gloves Imperial Plaid BS, B/O: $229
★ Driver Gloves Overtake BS, B/O: $77
★ Driver Gloves Racing Green FT, B/O: $48
⎯
★ Sport Gloves Omega FT, B/O: $739
★ Sport Gloves Amphibious BS #2, B/O: $733
★ Sport Gloves Arid BS, B/O: $292
⎯
★ Hand Wraps Giraffe MW, B/O: $212
★ Hand Wraps Leather FT, B/O: $160
★ Hand Wraps Desert Shamagh MW, B/O: $101
⎯
★ Broken Fang Gloves Yellow-banded MW, B/O: $185
★ Broken Fang Gloves Needle Point FT, B/O: $67
★ Broken Fang Gloves Needle Point WW, B/O: $59
⎯
★ Hydra Gloves Case Hardened BS, B/O: $65
★ Hydra Gloves Emerald FT, B/O: $65
★ Hydra Gloves Emerald BS, B/O: $62
WEAPONS
AK-47 Case Hardened BS, B/O: $130
AK-47 Bloodsport MW, B/O: $79
AK-47 Fuel Injector BS, B/O: $76
AK-47 Fuel Injector BS, B/O: $76
AK-47 Bloodsport FT, B/O: $70
AK-47 Neon Rider MW, B/O: $60
StatTrak™ AK-47 Aquamarine Revenge FT, B/O: $72
⎯
AWP Fade FN, B/O: $1039
AWP Asiimov FT, B/O: $139
AWP Asiimov FT, B/O: $139
AWP Wildfire MW, B/O: $95
AWP BOOM MW, B/O: $93
AWP BOOM MW, B/O: $93
AWP Duality FN, B/O: $81
AWP Asiimov BS, B/O: $79
AWP Asiimov BS, B/O: $79
AWP Chromatic Aberration FN, B/O: $60
StatTrak™ AWP Hyper Beast FT, B/O: $68
StatTrak™ AWP Hyper Beast FT, B/O: $68
StatTrak™ AWP Electric Hive FT, B/O: $55
⎯
Desert Eagle Blaze FN, B/O: $623
Desert Eagle Emerald Jörmungandr FN, B/O: $241
Desert Eagle Cobalt Disruption FN, B/O: $81
Desert Eagle Cobalt Disruption FN, B/O: $81
Desert Eagle Cobalt Disruption FN, B/O: $81
Desert Eagle Printstream FT, B/O: $54
⎯
M4A1-S Blue Phosphor FN, B/O: $434
StatTrak™ M4A1-S Bright Water MW, B/O: $55
⎯
M4A4 Poseidon FN, B/O: $1465
M4A4 Asiimov BS, B/O: $55
M4A4 Hellfire MW, B/O: $50
⎯
USP-S Kill Confirmed MW, B/O: $72
USP-S Printstream FT, B/O: $69
StatTrak™ USP-S Kill Confirmed FT, B/O: $139
⎯
AUG Flame Jörmungandr FN, B/O: $234
P90 Run and Hide FT, B/O: $147
Five-SeveN Candy Apple FN, B/O: $61
Knives - Bowie Knife, Butterfly Knife, Falchion Knife, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Huntsman Knife, M9 Bayonet, Bayonet, Karambit, Shadow Daggers, Stiletto Knife, Ursus Knife, Navaja Knife, Talon Knife, Classic Knife, Paracord Knife, Survival Knife, Nomad Knife, Skeleton Knife, Patterns - Gamma Doppler, Doppler (Phase 1, Phase 2, Phase 3, Phase 4, Black Pearl, Sapphire, Ruby, Emerald), Crimson Web, Lore, Fade, Ultraviolet, Night, Marble Fade (Fire & Ice, Fake FI), Case Hardened (Blue Gem), Autotronic, Slaughter, Black Laminate, Tiger Tooth, Boreal Forest, Scorched, Blue Steel, Vanilla, Damascus Steel, Forest DDPAT, Urban Masked, Freehand, Stained, Bright Water, Safari Mesh, Rust Coat, Gloves - Bloodhound Gloves (Charred, Snakebite, Guerrilla, Bronzed), Driver Gloves (Snow Leopard, King Snake, Crimson Weave, Imperial Plaid, Black Tie, Lunar Weave, Diamondback, Rezan the Red, Overtake, Queen Jaguar, Convoy, Racing Green), Hand Wraps (Cobalt Skulls, CAUTION!, Overprint, Slaughter, Leather, Giraffe, Badlands, Spruce DDPAT, Arboreal, Constrictor, Desert Shamagh, Duct Tape), Moto Gloves (Spearmint, POW!, Cool Mint, Smoke Out, Finish Line, Polygon, Blood Pressure, Turtle, Boom!, Eclipse, 3rd Commando Company, Transport), Specialist Gloves (Crimson Kimono, Tiger Strike, Emerald Web, Field Agent, Marble Fade, Fade, Foundation, Lt. Commander, Crimson Web, Mogul, Forest DDPAT, Buckshot), Sport Gloves (Pandora's Box, Superconductor, Hedge Maze, Vice, Amphibious, Slingshot, Omega, Arid, Big Game, Nocts, Scarlet Shamagh, Bronze Morph), Hydra Gloves (Case Hardened, Emerald, Rattler, Mangrove), Broken Fang Gloves (Jade, Yellow-banded, Unhinged, Needle Point), Pistols - P2000 (Wicked Sick, Ocean Foam, Fire Element, Amber Fade, Corticera, Chainmail, Imperial Dragon, Obsidian, Scorpion, Handgun, Acid Etched), USP-S (Printstream, Kill Confirmed, Whiteout, Road Rash, Owergrowth, The Traitor, Neo-Noir, Dark Water, Orion, Blueprint, Stainless, Caiman, Serum, Monster Mashup, Royal Blue, Ancient Visions, Cortex, Orange Anolis, Ticket To Hell, Black Lotus, Cyrex, Check Engine, Guardian, Purple DDPAT, Torque, Blood Tiger, Flashback, Business Class, Pathfinder, Para Green), Lead Conduit, Glock-18 (Umbral Rabbit, Fade, Candy Apple, Bullet Queen, Synth Leaf, Neo-Noir, Nuclear Garden, Dragon Tatto, Reactor, Pink DDPAT, Twilight Galaxy, Sand Dune, Groundwater, Blue Fissure, Snack Attack, Water Elemental, Brass, Wasteland Rebel, Vogue, Franklin, Royal Legion, Gamma Doppler, Weasel, Steel Disruption, Ironwork, Grinder, High Beam, Moonrise, Oxide Blaze, Bunsen Burner, Clear Polymer, Bunsen Burner, Night), P250 (Re.built, Nuclear Threat, Modern Hunter, Splash, Whiteout, Vino Primo, Mehndi, Asiimov, Visions, Undertow, Cartel, See Ya Later, Gunsmoke, Splash, Digital Architect, Muertos, Red Rock, Bengal Tiger, Crimson Kimono, Wingshot, Metallic DDPAT, Hive, Dark Filigree, Mint Kimono), Five-Seven (Neon Kimono, Berries And Cherries, Fall Hazard, Crimson Blossom, Hyper Beast, Nitro, Fairy Tale, Case Hardened, Copper Galaxy, Angry Mob, Monkey Business, Fowl Play, Anodized Gunmetal, Hot Shot, Retrobution, Boost Protocol), CZ75-Auto (Chalice, Crimson Web, Emerald Quartz, The Fuschia is Now, Nitro, Xiangliu, Yellow Jacket, Victoria, Poison Dart, Syndicate, Eco, Hexane, Pole, Tigris), Tec-9 (Rebel, Terrace, Nuclear Threat, Hades, Rust Leaf, Decimator, Blast From, Orange Murano, Toxic, Fuel Injector, Remote Control, Bamboo Forest, Isaac, Avalanche, Brother, Re-Entry, Blue Titanium, Bamboozle), R8 Revolver (Banana Cannon, Fade, Blaze, Crimson Web, Liama Cannon, Crazy 8, Reboot, Canal Spray, Night, Amber Fade), Desert Eagle (Blaze, Hand Cannon, Fennec Fox, Sunset Storm, Emerald Jörmungandr, Pilot, Hypnotic, Golden Koi, Printstream, Cobalt Disruption, Code Red, Ocean Drive, Midnight Storm, Kumicho Dragon, Crimson Web, Heirloom, Night Heist, Mecha Industries, Night, Conspiracy, Trigger Discipline, Naga, Directive, Light Rail), Dual Berettas (Flora Carnivora, Duelist, Cobra Strike, Black Limba, Emerald, Hemoglobin, Twin Turbo, Marina, Melondrama, Pyre, Retribution, Briar, Dezastre, Royal Consorts, Urban Shock, Dualing Dragons, Panther, Balance), Rifles - Galil (Aqua Terrace, Winter Forest, Chatterbox, Sugar Rush, Pheonix Blacklight, CAUTION!, Orange DDPAT, Cerberus, Dusk Ruins, Eco, Chromatic Aberration, Stone Cold, Tuxedo, Sandstorm, Shattered, Urban Rubble, Rocket Pop, Kami, Crimson Tsunami, Connexion), SCAR-20 (Fragments, Brass, Cyrex, Palm, Splash Jam, Cardiac, Emerald, Crimson Web, Magna Carta, Stone Mosaico, Bloodsport, Enforcer), AWP (Duality, Gungnir, Dragon Lore, Prince, Medusa, Desert Hydra, Fade, Lightning Strike, Oni Taiji, Silk Tiger, Graphite, Chromatic Aberration, Asiimov, Snake Camo, Boom, Containment Breach, Wildfire, Redline, Electric Hive, Hyper Beast, Neo-Noir, Man-o'-war, Pink DDPAT, Corticera, Sun in Leo, Elite Build, Fever Dream, Atheris, Mortis, PAW, Exoskeleton, Worm God, POP AWP, Phobos, Acheron, Pit Viper, Capillary, Safari Mesh), AK-47 (Head Shot, Wild Lotus, Gold Arabesque, X-Ray, Fire Serpent, Hydroponic, Panthera Onca, Case Hardened, Vulcan, Jet Set, Fuel Injector, Bloodsport, Nightwish, First Class, Neon Rider, Asiimov, Red Laminate, Aquamarine Revenge, The Empress, Wasteland Rebel, Jaguar, Black Laminate, Leet Museo, Neon Revolution, Redline, Frontside Misty, Predator, Legion of Anubis, Point Disarray, Orbit Mk01, Blue Laminate, Green Laminate, Emerald Pinstripe, Cartel, Phantom Disruptor, Jungle Spray, Safety Net, Rat Rod, Baroque Purple, Slate, Elite Build, Uncharted, Safari Mesh), FAMAS (Sundown, Prime Conspiracy, Afterimage, Commemoration, Dark Water, Spitfire, Pulse, Eye of Athena, Meltdown, Rapid Eye Move, Roll Cage, Styx, Mecha Industrie, Djinn, ZX Spectron, Valence, Neural Net, Night Borre, Hexne), M4A4 (Temukau, Howl, Poseidon, Asiimov, Daybreak, Hellfire, Zirka, Red DDPAT, Radiation Hazard, Modern Hunter, The Emperor, The Coalition, Bullet Rain, Cyber Security, X-Ray, Dark Blossom, Buzz Kill, In Living Color, Neo-Noir, Desolate Space, 龍王 (Dragon King), Royal Paladin, The Battlestar, Global Offensive, Tooth Fairy, Desert-Strike, Griffin, Evil Daimyo, Spider Lily, Converter), M4A1-S (Emphorosaur-S, Welcome to the Jungle, Imminent Danger, Knight, Hot Rod, Icarus Fell, Blue Phosphor, Printstream, Master Piece, Dark Water, Golden Coil, Bright Water, Player Two, Atomic Alloy, Guardian, Chantico's Fire, Hyper Beast, Mecha Industries, Cyrex, Control Panel, Moss Quartz, Nightmare, Decimator, Leaded Glass, Basilisk, Blood Tiger, Briefing, Night Terror, Nitro, VariCamo, Flashback), SG 553 (Cyberforce, Hazard Pay, Bulldozer, Integrale, Dragon Tech, Ultraviolet, Colony IV, Hypnotic, Cyrex, Candy Apple, Barricade, Pulse), SSG 08 (Death Strike, Sea Calico, Blood in the Water, Orange Filigree, Dragonfire, Big Iron, Bloodshot, Detour, Turbo Peek, Red Stone), AUG (Akihabara Accept, Flame Jörmungandr, Hot Rod, Midnight Lily, Sand Storm, Carved Jade, Wings, Anodized Navy, Death by Puppy, Torque, Bengal Tiger, Chameleon, Fleet Flock, Random Access, Momentum, Syd Mead, Stymphalian, Arctic Wolf, Aristocrat, Navy Murano), G3SG1 (Chronos, Violet Murano, Flux, Demeter, Orange Kimono, The Executioner, Green Apple, Arctic Polar Camo, Contractor), SMGs - P90 (Neoqueen, Astral Jörmungandr, Run and Hide, Emerald Dragon, Cold Blooded, Death by Kitty, Baroque Red, Vent Rush, Blind Spot, Asiimov, Trigon, Sunset Lily, Death Grip, Leather, Nostalgia, Fallout Warning, Tiger Pit, Schermatic, Virus, Shapewood, Glacier Mesh, Shallow Grave, Chopper, Desert Warfare), MAC-10 (Sakkaku, Hot Snakes, Copper Borre, Red Filigree, Gold Brick, Graven, Case Hardened, Stalker, Amber Fade, Neon Rider, Tatter, Curse, Propaganda, Nuclear Garden, Disco Tech, Toybox, Heat, Indigo), UMP-45 (Wild Child, Fade, Blaze, Day Lily, Minotaur's Labyrinth, Crime Scene, Caramel, Bone Pile, Momentum, Primal Saber), MP7 (Teal Blossom, Fade, Nemesis, Whiteout, Asterion, Bloosport, Abyssal Apparition, Full Stop, Special Delivery, Neon Ply, Asterion, Ocean Foam, Powercore, Scorched, Impire), PP-Bizon (Modern Hunter, Rust Coat, Forest Leaves, Antique, High Roller, Blue Streak, Seabird, Judgement of Anubis, Bamboo Print, Embargo, Chemical Green, Coblat Halftone, Fuel Rod, Photic Zone, Irradiated Alert, Carbon Fiber), MP9 (Featherweight, Wild Lily, Pandora's Box, Stained Glass, Bulldozer, Dark Age, Hot Rod, Hypnotic, Hydra, Rose Iron, Music Box, Setting Sun, Food Chain, Airlock, Mount Fuji, Starlight Protector, Ruby Poison Dart, Deadly Poison), MP5-SD (Liquidation, Oxide Oasis, Phosphor, Nitro, Agent, Autumn Twilly), Shotguns, Machineguns - Sawed-Off (Kiss♥Love, First Class, Orange DDPAT, Rust Coat, The Kraken, Devourer, Mosaico, Wasteland Princess, Bamboo Shadow, Copper, Serenity, Limelight, Apocalypto), XM1014 (Frost Borre, Ancient Lore, Red Leather, Elegant Vines, Banana Leaf, Jungle, Urban Perforated, Grassland, Blaze Orange, Heaven Guard, VariCamo Blue, Entombed, XOXO, Seasons, Tranquility, Bone Machine, Incinegator, Teclu Burner, Black Tie, Zombie Offensive, Watchdog), Nova (Baroque Orange, Hyper Beast, Green Apple, Antique, Modern Hunter, Walnut, Forest Leaves, Graphite, Blaze Orange, Rising Skull, Tempest, Bloomstick, Interlock, Quick Sand, Moon in Libra, Clean Polymer, Red Quartz, Toy Soldier), MAG-7 (Insomnia, Cinqueda, Counter Terrace, Prism Terrace, Memento, Chainmail, Hazard, Justice, Bulldozer, Silver, Core Breach, Firestarter, Praetorian, Heat, Hard Water, Monster Call, BI83 Spectrum, SWAG-7), M249 (Humidor, Shipping Forecast, Blizzard Marbleized, Downtown, Jungle DDPAT, Nebula Crusader, Impact Drill, Emerald Poison Dart), Negev (Mjölnir, Anodized Navy, Palm, Power Loader, Bratatat, CaliCamo, Phoenix Stencil, Infrastructure, Boroque Sand), Wear - Factory New (FN), Minimal Wear (MW), Field-Tested (FT), Well-Worn (WW), Battle-Scarred (BS), Stickers Holo/Foil/Gold - Katowice 2014, Krakow 2017, Howling Dawn, Katowice 2015, Crown, London 2018, Cologne 2014, Boston 2018, Atlanta 2017, Cluj-Napoca 2015, DreamHack 2014, King on the Field, Harp of War, Winged Difuser, Cologne 2016, Cologne 2015, MLG Columbus 2016, Katowice 2019, Berlin 2019, RMR 2020, Stockholm 2021, Antwerp 2022, Swag Foil, Flammable foil, Others - Souvenirs, Agents, Pins, Passes, Gifts, Music Kits, Cases, Keys, Capsules, Packages, Patches
Some items on the list may no longer be available or are still locked, visit My Inventory for more details.
Send a Trade Offer for fastest response. I consider all offers.
Add me for discuss if there is a serious offer that needs to be discussed.
submitted by
_Triple_ to
Csgotrading [link] [comments]
2023.06.03 01:14 Less_Sherbert2981 I've been extremely sick (cold and severe allergy symptoms) for three weeks. I realized today why that was. It was my purifier.
Like, symptoms so severe I was convinced I had covid. Tests were all negative and symptoms improved with benadryl when I finally thought to take one a week into miserable territory. At this point I was convinced it was just severe seasonal allergies. That is, until I discovered something today.
I'm actually slightly impressed with myself for figuring this out. Also just grateful for the good luck of this situation. My freaking awful allergies originally got super bad when I get this new essential oil room freshening spray. I have a lot of skin allergies and I guess maybe that could translate to respiratory allergens/reactions too. But the allergies seemed super extreme and I've used sprays like this before without issues. I stopped using the spray immediately thinking it was possibly the issue.
I also had extremely severe allergy issues when I was in airbnbs last fall. Airbnbs that have a shit ton of cleaning products used in them all the time. However, I've been around cleaning products my whole life without these allergies. What changed? Someone else visiting my apartment was also frequently breaking out when she was here and we never figured out what was causing it. I've also been breaking out on my forehead really bad the past few weeks since I used that room spray.
The thing that changed was that my best friend bought me an air purifier for my birthday - back last fall when I first started having issues and was staying in long term airbnbs with it. It's a really nice one, the biggest blueair one which was way overkill for my studio apartment, but I still liked it. I was googling it today to see how effective the filters for it were and noticed that it also advertised that it filtered using "electrostatic". I didn't know what this meant, so I googled it. You all know this, but it's how those ionizing air filters work, the ones with no filters and sometimes no fan. It creates a positive charge to particles so that it sticks to surfaces in your home - it makes it leave weird black residue on stuff, but it's also removing the particles from the air. I've been seeing this black residue all over the place in my apartment and had no idea what it was - I assumed it was charcoal from the air filter. It was actually the ionized particles sticking to stuff.
When googling ionization today, I was also reading about health effects of it. It generates ozone (smog) in super high levels. Like higher than the most red of days on forecasts. Again you all know this. It also probably doesn't help that my giant air filter produces way more than it probably needs to for such a small space.
Here's the part you may not know. I found a research paper that made me realize what was happening: ozone reacts with terpenes - the things essential oils are mostly made of, and are in virtually every single cleaning product. That room spray was basically entirely essential oils. This reactions creates insanely high particle counts in your home - like 10-20 times (or more) worse than the particle count with zero filtration.
Particles themselves wouldn't necessarily cause severe allergies. But something else happens when ozone reacts with terpenes.
It creates formaldehyde. I'm allergic to formaldehyde. I sprayed the room spray directly on my air purifier for some dumb reason three weeks ago.
It's also suspected that it causes cancer, and it's linked to developing asthma in kids who are exposed to high levels of it. But mostly I'm allergic to it.
I've actually been making everything awful and horrible with this air filter. Thankfully the ionizer itself can be removed and I can keep the filter working without it. But man, what a random fucking thing to be making my life so miserable, and what are the odds that my random curiosity led me down the rabbit hole to discover it. I think I haven't been miserable the entire time since owning this air purifier because 99% of the time I only use tiny amounts of basic soap and water to clean everything. I don't use spray cleaners, I don't use glade plugins, nothing like that.
TLDR: Ionizers are shit, the ozone they make reacts with cleaning products to make nasty formaldehyde.
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2023.06.03 01:10 AutoModerator Monthly Pathfinder Society Update
To help reduce the misconception of what sub this is I will work on a monthly Society update that will be stuck to the top of the posts. I'll be gleaming this from the blog posts, VO Discord, updates to the sub and suggestions from the sub. Here is the link to the
Paizo Monthly Update blog post.
OPC Musings
Welcome back to the OP Monthly Update! I know we missed last month, that’s entirely my fault. I was on my honeymoon, and then we announced a little thing called the Pathfinder Core Remaster, and by the time I came up for air, it was already mid-May!
Luckily it’s smooth sailing now, which is a lie, because convention season is in full swing! As I write this blog we’re doing our final preparations for PaizoCon Online. I can’t wait for this show, and I’m so excited for our upcoming shows like UK Games Expo and Gen Con. Not to mention, this fall I’ll be heading to a few local conventions! More on that soon, hopefully. For now, I’ve got a supersized OP update to deliver, so let’s get started.
Digital Adventure Releases
These adventures will be available on June 28, 2023.
Pathfinder Society
Pathfinder Society Scenario #4-15: In Glorious Battle Starfinder Society
Starfinder Society Scenario #6-03: Project Dawn Starfinder Society Scenario #6-04: Secrets Long Submerged *part of a subscription
Pathfinder Core Remaster
Last month, we announced the Pathfinder Core Remaster: an overhaul and update of our Pathfinder Second Edition ruleset, a necessary but difficult maneuver given the events of recent months. I am sure that for many of you, the first question was “how will this affect Pathfinder Society?” The short answer is: we don’t know yet! The longer answer is that these books literally don’t exist fully yet; they won’t go to the printer for another month or so. Until they do, we can’t begin to answer these questions.
Rest assured that as soon as we can, the OP team will be diving into the new rule changes to figure out how to make the updates as seamless as possible for the community. For now, I ask for your patience on this topic. There will be many questions to answer in the weeks ahead, but we’ve got a steady hand on the metaphorical tiller.
FAQ and Boon Updates
In the quiet time before convention prep, the Pathfinder Society developers and I had some time to sit down and hammer out some updates to boons available in the boon store, as well as to handle some FAQs for the program. The full updates are available on the
FAQ page, but here’s a summary of the changes:
- The Second Chance boon has been updated to indicate that purchasing and using this boon also covers the cost of recovering your body and any lost possessions if necessary. If a character is undead (such as a skeleton), they can use this boon to benefit from a similar ritual to restore themselves to their previously undead state.
- Similarly, an FAQ clarifies that in the event that your character ends a scenario alive but otherwise inaccessible (such as being imprisoned or transported to another plane), the Second Chance boon can be purchased and used to return your character to safety.
- Another FAQ clarifies which version of an item or character option to use in the event the option is reprinted in another book. In short, a hardcover printing of an option is considered the standard option unless otherwise stated. This applies to both Pathfinder and Starfinder Society.
- The Secondary Initiation boon has also been clarified to cover how it handles entry requirements for organizations (it handwaves them as occurring offscreen) and which ranks PCs can choose to be within organizations (anything reasonable is fair game, but no, your PCs are not fourth-mark Firebrands).
- Finally, we have issued one minor clarification to the Magic Arrow feat from the Pathfinder Advanced Player’s Guide, which you can find on the Character Options page as normal.
Starfinder Society Year 6 Updates
Program Changes
SFS Year 6 launched at PaizoCon Online! Hopefully, anyway; I’m writing this before the show, so if a dinosaur attacks, someone let future me know. The following Starfinder species are now considered “always available”: gnoll, hanakan, kiirinta, quorlu, raxilite, shimreen. Players are free to build characters of these species as often as they like; as always, characters with an Admittance Boon for these species gain an additional +2 to one ability score immediately.
The Achievement Point cost for a boon to play a character of the following species has been reduced to 80 Achievement Points: astriapi, cephalume, contemplative, trox, uplifted bear, urog. Meanwhile, the following species are now playable with the purchase of a boon from the online Boon Store: entu colony, huitz’plina, grippli, kitsune, kobold, psacynoid, samsaran, scyphozoan, trinir, and tryziarka.
Finally, a few more boons have been added to the Boon Store! Starfinders who enjoy having a permanent emblem of their position can now purchase the Marked Starfinder boon for 2 AcP after playing at least one session to gain a Society Subdermal Graft. Additionally, characters can now undergo a Training Montage (or Extended Training Montage) to retrain their character’s abilities! These provide more robust retraining options than the previously available mnemonic editor. Full text of these boons, as always, can be found on the
Starfinder Society FAQ page.
The
Guide to Organized Play: Starfinder Society has been updated with all these changes, as well as a brand-new overhaul and visual upgrade! Incredible thanks to Jared Thaler and Peter Nalepa, both of whom have worked very hard to make the guide more user-friendly and accessible. They’ve created a
feedback thread on the forums for comments or questions.
First Seeker Election
Last month we formally announced
Starfinder Society #6-06: Tomorrow’s Seekers! This scenario will allow you to meet the four PCs who were selected to vie for the title of First Seeker. You may note my name on the cover as the author; I’m so excited for this adventure and for you all to meet these wonderful colorful characters!
Look for some upcoming blogs where we’ll be revealing the candidates, their platforms, and a bit more about them. Campaign season begins when the ballot opens at Gen Con (August 1–4), and the voting period will close in mid-October. If you want to cast your vote, don’t miss your chance to play the scenario in that two-month period!
Sanctioning
One of the reasons we could get away with missing April’s blog was that it was a pretty quiet month on the release front! Luckily, we’ve got some new toys for you this month!
For Pathfinder Society, this month’s new release is the brand-new standalone adventure,
The Enmity Cycle. The sanctioning documents for this adventure are just waiting to be exported; once they are, we’ll be sure to add them to the product page.
On the Starfinder side, the new hardcover rulebook
Starfinder Ports of Call has been released and sanctioned for play! Visit the
Character Options page for all the details. While you’re there, why not check out the new options from the
Drift Hackers Adventure Path, which are also now sanctioned! Chronicle sheets for players and GMs will also be available on the product page for the AP as soon as they’re exported.
Coming up next, we’ll be getting sanctioning documents out for the Free RPG Day adventures (foreshadowing for the next section)! After that, for Pathfinder Society we’ve got the
Stolen Fate Adventure Path and
Pathfinder Lost Omens Highhelm on the docket, and Starfinder Society will be pretty quiet until the fall!
Free RPG Day
June 24 is
Free RPG Day here in the United States! This initiative provides retailers with exclusive access to free RPG products from a number of companies, including Paizo. We have two adventures in this year’s kit:
A Few Flowers Morefor Pathfinder and
Operation: Seaside Park for Starfinder
If your store is participating in this event, sanctioning documents and chronicle sheets will be available prior to the event! You’ll be able to get credit for your Organized Play characters after participating in these adventures. Free RPG Day is a great way to kickstart a new RPG group at a store, so we encourage you all to head to a participating retailerfor the event!
GM Recognition
At PaizoCon Online last weekend, I awarded three individuals with brand new Campaign Coins and Organized Play IDs. We award these coins to members of the community who have gone above and beyond to provide an exceptional program to the community at large. Campaign Coins are awarded based on nominations; if you believe someone in your community is deserving of this award (whether or not they are a Venture Officer), send an email to organizedplay[at]paizo[dot]com with their name and reasons.
Congratulations to: Jofiane “Fi,” who now holds a Campaign Coin and Organized Play ID #887 Milan Badzic, who now holds a Campaign Coin and Organized Play ID #888 and Harmeshver “Resh” Singh, who now holds a Campaign Coin and Organized Play ID #889
GM Ranks
Whether stars, novas, or glyphs, achieving a 5 ranking in any program involves a substantial amount of time. To achieve the 5th milestone, a GM must run 150 games, of which at least 50 must be unique scenarios and 10 special scenarios, as well as run between one and three games for Venture-Captains (program dependent). A conservative estimate of the time needed to reach the 5th milestone is 650 hours!
This month, we had one GM earn their 5th Nova for Starfinder Society and one earn their 5th Glyph for Pathfinder Society (second edition).
5th Nova (SFS): Terry T 5th Glyph (PFS2): Tim Munsie (TMun)
Congratulations to our outstanding GMs and volunteers!
Conventions
It’s convention season! As this blog is posted, I’ll be getting ready for my first games at UK Games Expo in Birmingham. It’s my first official trip abroad and I can’t wait to meet our European community! If you’re in the area, come say hi!
We've also announced PaizoCon South Pacific, running from June 30–July 2 in Sydney, Australia! While I won’t be attending (this year...), the Paizo community will be turning out for a great time.
And of course, there are tons of local conventions in your area! Check out our conventions calendar to see what events are happening near you and go roll some dice.
That’s quite enough from me—thanks for sticking with the supersized update. There’s a reason we try to do these monthly! Until next time, Explore! Report! Cooperate! And have a spot of tea!
Alex Speidel Organized Play Coordinator
Upcoming Conventions
Paizo Conventions calendar
NordCon 2023, UK Games EXPO, ConCarolinas 2023, Phoenix Fan Fusion 2023, Kākāpō Con, Origins 2023, Tri-Con 2023
Sub Updates
Sorry for the issues getting this out correctly the past few times.
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2023.06.03 00:22 nth314 Ryzen 5 5600G Black Screen, Display Driver or Display Stability Issues
Hello. Since building this PC in June 2022, I've been trying to diagnose a strange issue with the integrated GPU either producing a black screen or experiencing display driver timeouts (the famous device manager error 4101). This collection of issues only occurs when the PC cold boots, or on rare occasions when waking from sleep. The PC has no issues when under load or playing games, and has never had a BSOD. I have not found a way to manually reproduce these issues, and they occur as often as twice per day, or as infrequently as once a month, making diagnosis difficult. Note that after December 2022, the PC began showing black screens on POST and failing to exit POST.
Computer Type: Desktop
GPU: Vega 7 integrated GPU in Ryzen 5 5600G
CPU: RYZEN 5 5600G
Motherboard: ASUS ROG Strix B550i Gaming
BIOS Version: 2423 x64
RAM: 16GB CORSAIR VENGEANCE 3600MHZ CL18; SKU: CMK16GX4M2D3600C18 (
Note this SKU is not in motherboard QVL)
PSU: CORSAIR SF600 80+ GOLD FULLY MODULAR
Case: SSUPD MESHILICIOUS
Operating System & Version: WINDOWS 10 HOME 22H2; Build 19045.2965
GPU Drivers: AMD drivers 22.5.2, 22.8.2, 22.9.2, 22.10.22 (windows driver store version). Currently 22.20.42 (windows driver store 31.0.12042.4) as automatically installed by windows
Chipset Drivers: Unknown, no entry in Device Manager
Background Applications: None, issue occurs before login
Description of Original Problem: Original issue began a few days after building PC and installing windows. After running MemTest86 (no issues after 4 passes), the system was rebooted. System reboots normally, 1 beep from installed PC buzzer and windows boots to lock screen. On lockscreen, display immediately freezes, usually after the clock and background is shown. The PC will stay frozen until the display driver times out after 10 seconds, the monitor will lose signal as the driver is re-initialized and the display will return, only to freeze again a few seconds later. This continues until either windows disables the driver entirely, relying on the basic display driver, or the system fails to recover and remains frozen. Some variations of this issue result in the display crashing before the background even renders in the lockscreen, and sometimes video signal is restored as a black screen, only to freeze and recover again (monitor shows backlit black screen, then backlight is turned off as the input signal is lost and restored).
After around December 2022, issues began manifesting in different ways, and occurred outside of just the windows lock screen. Sometimes on power on, the system will beep once but display a black screen, never leaving POST. Short pressing the power button shuts off the system allowing for a restart. On other occasions display crashes now occur after system wakes from sleep, with the result being either a frozen system or successful fallback to basic display drivers. Most notably, the system once booted and froze displaying a corrupted BIOS logo, which can be seen here:
https://imgur.com/a/uFYVZBF **Troubleshooting:**Prior to December 2022, I've attempted to:
- Try several different AMD driver versions: from 22.5.2, to 22.8.2 and 22.9.2 (which was automatically set by windows).
- Due to the sporadic nature of this issue, diagnosis was difficult, combined with windows constantly auto updating driver versions, of which several registry changes were unable to fix
- Attempted to run PC at 3200MHz ram speed instead of 3600, since 3200 is the max guaranteed supported speed by AMD for this CPU. Issues continued after this change. However many posters have noted these monolithic CPUs tend to have good IMCs and some can OC to 4000+ MHz. Perhaps I am unlucky?
- Monitor upgrade from HDMI 1080P to DisplayPort 1440P. Issues persisted. Rules out bad monitor+cable combinations.
After December 2022:
- Attempted to try different RAM combinations, with only a dual slot motherboard I've tried switching both RAM sticks, and so far running RAM A in slot A, and RAM B in slot B. Have not tried running individual sticks in slot B only.
- Full windows 10 reinstall with no data carried over. Reinstall was performed using a USB flashed with the Windows 10 Media Creation Tool from another PC. This also fixes any potential issues caused by registry changes in an attempt to stop windows' stubborn auto update of GPU drivers.
- Back in June 2022, I tested the riser cable of this SFF Case using my only available discrete GPU, an AMD HD 6570. This also required installing legacy AMD Catalyst drivers, resulting in a crash when I reverted back to the integrated GPU. AMD cleanup tool resolved the driver conflicts and Adrenaline 22.5.2 was reinstalled. The Windows 10 reinstall from above should further prevent any remaining issues from this experiment from carrying over.
I have not attempted the following: - Use DDU to clean up drivers. (Probably not related now since issues occur even in BIOS)
- Ran system with individual RAM sticks in slot B. (unsure if this would fix issue, since individual sticks in slot A did not fix)
- Potential chipset driver upgrades? (unsure of how this is done, cannot find current driver versions at all in device manager)
- BIOS upgrades? Unsure of risk, since system is 99.9% working and BIOS updates could brick motherboard)
Options going forward: - Use PC as is, let system recover if any crashes occur, or hard reset system. Hope no corruption happens to OS if any hard resets are needed.
- Save up for dedicated GPU, hoping issue is GPU related
- Attempt some BIOS and chipset upgrades
- Perform and RMA with AMD (unsure since issue could still be iGPU, motherboard, or RAM related)
A full list of every issue and change can be found here
+ | A | B | C | D | E | F |
1 | Date | Type (blue = hardware changes, green=software changes, red = unique or uncommon errors) | Symptoms | User actions (if applicable) | Result | Comments |
2 | June 22, 2022 | Hardware change | | First assembly of PC | No issues during assembly, windows installs smoothly | |
3 | June 23, 2022 | Hardware change | | Added AMD HD-6570 GPU for testing PCIe extender cable | No issues with GPU, extender cable appears to be working | Required install of legacy AMD Catalyst GPU drivers |
4 | June 23, 2022 | Hardware change | PC crashed after removing HD 6570 and reverting to iGPU | Boot in safe mode, use AMD cleanup tool to remove old drivers | PC boots normally after old drivers are removed | |
5 | June 24, 2022 | Diagnostic | Ran MemTest86 with default settings | | MemTest PASS | Possible cause of memory instability as GPU issue began immediately after reboot? |
6 | June 24, 2022 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Hard reset | No issues on next boot | |
7 | July 9, 2022 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Hard reset | No issues on next boot | |
8 | August 4, 2022 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Hard reset | No issues on next boot | |
9 | August 11, 2022 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Hard reset | No issues on next boot | |
10 | Sept 5, 2022 | Software Change | | Driver configured to 22.9.2 | | |
11 | Sept 6, 2022 | Software Change | Windows auto update driver to unknown ver, published August 2021 | | | Did not know about the difference between AMD driver ver. #s and windows driver store #s, which are different. Driver is likely a WHQL driver in the driver store which windows insists on updating to |
12 | Sept 20, 2022 | Software Change | | Attempt to stop windows driver updates via registry changes | | |
13 | Sept 22, 2022 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Hard reset | No issues on next boot | |
14 | Sept 25, 2022 | Software Change | Windows auto update driver to unknown ver, published August 2021 | | | Clearly windows has ignored the registry change... |
15 | Sept 26, 2022 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Hard reset | No issues on next boot | |
16 | Oct 11, 2022 | Software Change | | Set driver to 22.5.2 (WHQL) and further changes to the windows registry to stop auto updates | | Registry change likely involved blacklisting 4 hardware IDs for Radeon iGPU from the driver update list |
17 | Oct 15, 2022 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Hard reset | No issues on next boot | |
18 | Oct 18, 2022 | Software Change | | Set driver to 22.8.2 | | |
19 | Oct 30, 2022 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Hard reset | No issues on next boot | |
20 | Nov 4, 2022 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot, unstable recovery | Restart system through windows UI while driver crashes and recover every ~10s | Restart 1: Driver could not be loaded (devmgmt error 22), updating driver resulted in devmgmt error 31, another update resulted in successful install, but driver was unstable, crash and recovery every ~10s. Restart 2: No issues | First instance of system recovery without hard reset; first instance of other symptoms besides display freezing |
21 | Nov 6, 2022 | Hardware change | | New monitor, 1440p 165Hz displayPort | | Old monitor: 1080p 75Hz HDMI, issues persist after this change ruling out monitor+cable as issue |
22 | Nov 13, 2022 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Hard reset | No issue on next boot | |
23 | Nov 13, 2022 | Software Change | | Changed RAM speed from 3600MHz to 3200MHz | Slight performance drop in games due to slower RAM | Original ram ran at XMP, 3200MHz speed set manually, other settings left on AUTO |
24 | Nov 20, 2022 | System Fault | Black screen when powered on | Short press power to turn off | No issue on next boot | System likely has not left POST due to power button behaviour, first instance of system fault in BIOS/POST stage |
25 | Nov 21, 2022 | System Fault | No DP signal when woken from sleep, PC auto restarts. eventmgr lists "windows restarted due to bugcheck (0x0000009f)" | | No issue on next boot | Bugcheck 0x0000009f is a general type of error, some sources point to driver irp issues with amdkmdag.sys |
26 | Nov 22, 2022 | System Fault | No DP signal when woken from 2nd sleep, after 2 display driver recoveries system remains frozen on black screen | Hard reset | No issue on next boot | |
27 | Dec 19, 2022 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Attempted to shutdown system "blind" using narrator while driver crashed and recovered 5 times, after 5th recovery driver is disabled by windows | User logged in to windows and performed a restart to reenable AMD drivers. No issue on next boot | Windows successfully stopped crashing driver and fallback to basic display driver |
28 | Dec 23, 2022 | System Fault | Black screen when powered on | Short press power button to reboot, resulted in frozen bios screen with corrupted ROG brand logo | Short press power button again to reboot. No issue on next boot | First sign of hardware related failure if system cannot make it past BIOS screen without either a black screen, or displaying a corrupted boot logo. This is the only occurrance of this event |
29 | Dec 27, 2022-Jan 2, 2023 | Vacation, computer unused | | | | |
30 | Jan 11, 2023 | System Fault | No video signal on POST, system remains frozen in POST | Short press power button to reboot | No issue on next boot | |
31 | Jan 23, 2023 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Hard reset | No issue on next boot | couldn't wait to see if system could self recover |
32 | Jan 25, 2023 | System Fault | No DP signal when woken from sleep, PC auto restarts. eventmgr lists "windows restarted due to bugcheck (0x0000009f)" | | No issue on next boot | Bugcheck 0x0000009f is a general type of error, some sources point to driver irp issues with amdkmdag.sys |
33 | Jan 27, 2023 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Attempted to shutdown system "blind" using narrator while driver crashed and recovered 5 times, after 5th recovery driver is disabled by windows | User logged in to windows and found that no GPU drivers were available (likely code 22). A restart was then performed. No issue on next boot | |
34 | Jan 30, 2023 | System Fault | Display driver crash after system wakes from sleep | Managed to sign in in-between crashes, display driver continues crashing and freezes on desktop | Hard reset performed. No issue on next boot | Sometimes the system keeps going in between crashes |
35 | Feb 6, 2023 | Software Change | Screen flickers briefly during automatic update, interrupts YouTube video playback | Windows auto update AMD drivers to 22.10.2 (October), windows driver store version 31.0.12042.4 | System functions as normal after update | User annoyed that windows insists on updating while system is actively in use. Could have negative effects in critical situations like video games |
36 | Feb 10, 2023 | System Fault | Black screen when powered on | Short press power button to reboot | No issue on next boot | |
37 | Feb 11, 2023 | System Fault | Black screen when woken from sleep, system restarts automatically | | User session was saved after restart, all apps remained open. No issues afterwards | Unusual behaviour as system probably crashed, but fast start and keep apps open settigns were disabled |
38 | Feb 16, 2023 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Driver crashed and recovered 5 times, after 5th recovery driver is disabled by windows. A restart was then performed | After restart, driver failed to load (code 31). Another restart was performed. No issue on next boot | |
39 | Feb 23, 2023 | System Fault | Black screen when woken from sleep, system frozen on black screen | Hard reset | No issue on next boot | |
40 | Mar 21, 2023 | System Fault | Display driver crash after system wakes from sleep | User manages to sign in after display driver crashes and recovers continuously every 10 seconds, after over 20 recoveries user is able to restart PC from windows UI. | No issue on next boot | Sometimes the driver is just stable enough to keep going and continuously recover |
41 | Mar 27, 2023 | System Fault | Black screen when powered on | Short press power button to reboot | No issue on next boot | |
42 | Mar 27, 2023 | System Fault | Unknown crash when waking from sleep | Short press power button reboots system | System reboots as if nothing had happened and it was gracefully shutdown prior | |
43 | Mar 27, 2023 | System Fault | Unknown crash when waking from sleep | Short press power button reboots system | System reboots as if nothing had happened and it was gracefully shutdown prior | This symptom happens twice within one day, has not happened since |
44 | April 7, 2023 | System Fault | Display driver crash on login screen after boot | Hard reset | No issue on next boot | Needed to use computer, couldn't wait and see if system will self recover |
45 | April 8, 2023 | System Fault | Black screen when powered on | Short press power button to reboot | No issue on next boot | |
46 | April 9, 2023 | System Fault | Frozen screen with ROG logo on boot | Short press power button reboots system | No issue on next boot | Frozen on POST again, but with an intact logo this time! |
47 | April 14, 2023 | Software Change | | COMPLETE WINDOWS REINSTALL | | Reinstalled windows 10 from USB using the media creation tool on a different PC |
48 | April 14, 2023 | Software Change | | RAM set to 3600MHz | | 3600MHz set manually, no XMP, other settings left on AUTO |
49 | April 14, 2023 | Software Change | | Windows automatically reinstalls AMD drivers from driver store | | Version 31.0.12042.4 (Adrenaline 22.20.42) DCH/Win1064 , dated Oct 19, 2022 Data obtained from GPU-Z |
50 | April 14, 2023 | User Note | | | | From this point forward, majority of crashes after OS has loaded result in display driver crashes, but windows is able to recover each time and load basic display drivers. No AMD Adrenaline has been installed. Unsure if the minimal driver install from windows has something to contribute to this |
51 | April 14, 2023 | Hardware change | | Added labels to RAM sticks to diagnose potential RAM issues RAM A = red, RAM B = blue | RAM A in DIMM_SLOT A, RAM B in DIMM_SLOT B | |
52 | April 24, 2023 | System Fault | Display crash on login screen after boot, system tries to recover 3 times then remains frozen | Hard reset | No issue on next boot | |
53 | April 29, 2023 | System Fault | Display crash on login screen after boot, after 1 recovery attempt system auto reboots | | No issue on next boot | First instance of windows recovering from unstable driver since reinstall |
54 | May 1, 2023 | System Fault | Display crash on login screen after boot, after 1 recovery attempt windows fallback to basic display driver | User logs in to windows, device manager shows code 31, attempting to reinstall AMD drivers results in a crash, black screen, and then code 43 after recovering , a restart was then performed | No issue on next boot | |
55 | May 2, 2023 | System Fault | Display crash on login screen after boot, after 3 recovery attemps windows fallback to basic display driver | User logs in to windows, device manager shows code 31, a restart was then performed | No issue on next boot | |
56 | May 14, 2023 | System Fault | Display crash on login screen after boot, after 10 recovery attemps windows fallback to basic display driver | User logs in to windows, device manager shows code 22 for disabled device. Reenabling Radeon graphics shows code 31. A restart was then performed. | No issue on next boot | POST noted taking 2 seconds longer than the usual 5 second fan spin |
57 | May 15, 2023 | Hardware change | | Changed RAM stick positioning: RAM A in DIMM_SLOT B, RAM B in DIMM_SLOT A | | |
58 | May 19, 2023-May 22, 2023 | Vacation, computer unused | | | | |
59 | May 24, 2023 | System Fault | Display crash on login screen after boot, after 3 recovery attempts system restarts | | No issue on next boot | Noted user was presented with windows 11 upgrade prompt on login after restart |
60 | May 24, 2023 | Hardware change | | Changed RAM stick positioning: No RAM in DIMM_SLOT B, RAM B in DIMM_SLOT A | | |
61 | May 26, 2023 | System Fault | Display crash on login screen after boot, after 12 recovery attemps windows fallback to basic display driver | User logs in to windows, device manager shows code 31, a restart was then performed | No issue on next boot | |
62 | May 26, 2023 | Hardware change | | Changed RAM stick positioning: No RAM in DIMM_SLOT B, RAM A in DIMM_SLOT A | | |
63 | May 31, 2023 | System Fault | Display driver crash, after waiting for 3 recovery attempts a restart was performed | | No issue on next boot | User did not see POST process as monitor was connected to another PC and manually switched to DP input |
64 | June 1, 2023 | Hardware change | | Changed RAM stick positioning: RAM B in DIMM_SLOT B, RAM A in DIMM_SLOT A | | |
65 | June 1, 2023 | Software Change | | RAM set to 3200MHz | | 3200MHz set manually, no XMP, other settings left on AUTO |
Table formatting brought to you by ExcelToReddit Edit: Fixed some table formatting, some cells got offset.
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2023.06.02 23:41 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on
StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
S&P Sectors for this past week:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
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2023.06.02 23:40 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on
WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
S&P Sectors for this past week:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
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2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on
StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
S&P Sectors for this past week:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by
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2023.06.02 23:39 Ok-Supermarket4492 Introducing Seattle City Council Newsletter
Hi Reddit! My name is Sharon, and I am a college student interested in civic engagement and politics. I have been working on a project with some other students to make the Seattle City Council meetings more accessible by putting them into short summaries. I have put an example from last week below, though the real thing has a bit more formatting that doesn't translate into Reddit.
This project is relatively new, so we would really appreciate any feedback you may have and hope to make it as informative and accessible as possible! If you're interested in getting these newsletters every week, please click here:
https://forms.gle/Yxo5fevVhVWmwcB78.
Example newsletter:
Seattle City Council Meeting Summaries - Week of May 22 Council Briefing 5/22/2023 (Duration: 1h50min)
- 6 Present - Council President Debora Juarez, Councilmembers Andrew Lewis and Kshama Sawant are absent and excused, and Councilmember Sara Nelson arrived late.
Council Meeting 5/23/2023 (Duration: 2h56min)
- 7 Present - Council President Debora Juarez and Councilmember Kshama Sawant are absent and excused.
Councilmember Updates - Councilmember Lisa Herbold: District 1
- There is no item from the Public Safety and Human Services Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- The next committee meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, May 23rd.
- They will receive a briefing on overdose trends and harm reduction approaches from Public Health Seattle & King County and a panel of community-based overdose prevention program grantees.
- Will hear an overview of the proposed Council Bill 120580 regarding app-based workers' deactivation rights.
- Met with Chief Diaz, Southwest Precinct Captain Rivera, Director Betts of the Office of Police Accountability, Fire Chief Scoggins, and the leadership of the Community Police Commission individually.
- The Harbor Patrol unit is ready for the summer increase in calls for marine-related law enforcement and assistance.
- There will be a fire day on the 124th anniversary of the Great Seattle Fire at MOHAI at South Lake Union.
- Remind that the Seattle Emergency Hubs will be hosting disaster preparedness training on June 11th.
- Provided public comment to the King County Flood Control District in support of funding to address the river-topping flood in South Park.
- Will receive a tour and do a helpline listening shift at Crisis Connections next Wednesday.
- Councilmember Tammy Morales: District 2
- The Arts and Civil Rights Committee meeting from last week was canceled due to the holiday weekend, and the next meeting is scheduled for June 9th.
- The first meeting of the new Social Housing Developer Board is scheduled for May 23rd.
- Attended a neighborhood safety meeting with organizations in Seattle's Chinatown-International District (CID) and Social Housing Public Development Authority (PDA).
- Attended a workshop with SDOT and Sound Transit to discuss some issues in the Othello neighborhood and Rainier Beach neighborhoods.
- Attended the Evergreen Treatment Services’ 50-year anniversary, the One Seattle Day of Service, and an event for the African Cultural Arts Center.
- Spoke at the Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Celebration hosted by the Department of Neighborhoods and the Seattle AAPI Caucus.
- Councilmember Alex Pedersen: District 4
- There are twelve items from the Transportation and Seattle Public Utilities Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- Will present ten appointments, Council Bill 120557, and Council Bill 120574.
- The next Transportation and Seattle Public Utilities Committee meeting is scheduled for June 6th.
- Participated in the One Seattle Day of Service last Saturday.
- Councilmember Dan Strauss: District 6
- There are two items from the Land Use Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- Will present Council Bill 120534, which is a tree protection bill, and Council Bill 120535, which is a tree protection budget bill.
- Passed the Tree Protection Ordinance after making 50 amendments.
- The bill will be presented to the full council meeting on May 23rd for public comments and votes.
- Welcomed all city council members to attend the Land Use Committee meeting.
- Set the deadline for submitting amendments to Wednesday, May 17th.
- There will be a public hearing on May 24.
- The city council will vote on the passage of the bill on June 20th.
- Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda: Citywide
- There are three items from the Finance and Housing Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday
- Will present Council Bill 120572, which approves the 2022 budget increases.
- Will present Council Bill 120573, which requests approval for a 2023 budget increase, and Council Bill.
- Heard the April forecast report from the Office of Economic and Revenue forecast last week.
- The next Housing Levy Committee will meet on May 31st to prepare the introduction of the Housing Levy Proposal.
- The Committee will meet again on June 7th to vote on any amendments before being presented to the full council.
- The Finance and Housing Committee will meet again in early July to discuss the revenue situation.
- Recognize the opening of a Community Field sponsored by the Seattle Housing Authority, the Rave Foundation, and Sounders FC.
- Councilmember Sara Nelson: Citywide
- There are two items from the Economic Development, Technology, and City Light Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- Will present Council Bill 120576, which is a distribution easement ordinance.
- Will present Council Bill 120576, which is a platted easement ordinance.
- Release legislation that makes the use of illegal drugs in public spaces a simple misdemeanor with Councilmember Pedersen last week.
- Updated the original bill to align with the state law. The updated bill will be presented to the full council on June 6th.
- Joined King County Councilmember Reagan Dunn, State Representative Lauren Davis, and King County Department of Community and Human Services Leo Flor for the King County’s 2023 Conference on Substance Disorder on Thursday, May 11.
- Attended the 49th Seattle International Film Festival, the Port of Seattle’s annual Maritime Day breakfast.
- Participated in the mid-authorization of a bill passed by the Metropolitan Improvement District with the Mayor, Councilmember Andrew Lewis, and the downtown community.
- Met with the new CEO of MoPOP, Michelle Smith.
Legislation Updates - Council Bill 120578: AN ORDINANCE relating to City employment, commonly referred to as the Second Quarter 2023 Employment Ordinance; returning positions to the civil service system; exempting positions from the civil service system; and amending Section 4.13.010 of the Seattle Municipal Code; all by a 2/3 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Council President Debora Juarez; presented by Councilmember Alex Pedersen
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120534: AN ORDINANCE relating to tree protection; balancing the need for housing production and increasing tree protections; and amending Sections 23.44.020, 23.47A.016, 23.48.055, 23.76.004, 23.76.006, and Chapter 25.11 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss
- Councilmember Pedersen made a motion to postpone the vote to June 22nd.
- 2 Yes (Councilmember Herbold and Pedersen) and 5 No
- 6 Yes and 1 No (Councilmember Pedersen)
- Council Bill 120535: AN ORDINANCE amending Ordinance 126725, which adopted the 2023 Budget; changing appropriations for various departments and budget control levels, and from various funds; and creating positions; all by a 3/4 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120572: AN ORDINANCE amending Ordinance 126490, which adopted the 2022 Budget, including the 2022-2027 Capital Improvement Program (CIP); changing appropriations to various departments and budget control levels, and from various funds in the Budget; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts; all by a 3/4 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Teresa Masqueda
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120573: AN ORDINANCE amending Ordinance 126725, which adopted the 2023 Budget, including the 2023-2028 Capital Improvement Program (CIP); changing appropriations to various departments and budget control levels, and from various funds in the Budget; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts; all by a 3/4 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120563: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon Madison Middle School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120564: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon Magnolia Elementary School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120565: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon Daniel Bagley Elementary School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120566: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon West Seattle High School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120557: AN ORDINANCE relating to the Department of Transportation's Hazard Mitigation Program; authorizing the Director of the Department of Transportation to acquire, accept, and record, on behalf of The City of Seattle, a Catchment Wall Easement from Paul Tan and Ly Ngoc Tan, a married couple, located in a portion of Lot 7, Block 35, Rainier Beach, and a Catchment Wall Easement from Gracie Lee Young, located in a portion of Lot 8, Block 35, Rainier Beach; for the purpose of extending the protection of the adjacent roadway of superficial surface erosion of the adjacent slopes along a portion of Rainier Avenue South; placing the real property rights under the jurisdiction of the Seattle Department of Transportation; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Alex Pedersen
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120574: AN ORDINANCE relating to Seattle Public Utilities; declaring certain real property rights at the Foy Pump Station property (500 NE 145th St) as being surplus to the City's municipal utility needs; authorizing the sale of 451 square feet of King County Parcel 756870-0780 and 460 square feet of King County Parcel 756870-0775, and granting 1,201 square feet and 453 square feet on the same respective parcels for 3-year term temporary construction easements to the City of Shoreline for the purposes of the 145th Street and I-5 Interchange Project; directing the proceeds therefrom to Seattle Public Utilities' Water Fund; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Alex Pedersen
- 7 Yes
State Legislation Update: The Office of Intergovernmental Relations (OIR) director Gael Tarleton, State Relations Director Samir Junejo, and State Legislative Liaison Anna Johnson gave a presentation on legislation regarding climate and environment, healthcare and behavioral health, housing and homelessness, labor and commerce, public safety, drug possession and treatment, social programs and education, the capital budget, transportation.
- Here are links to some of the bills: Senate Bill 5144, House Bill 1181, House Bill 1216, Senate Bill 5165, House Bill 1329, Senate Bill 5082, House Bill 1155, House Bill 1340, House Bill 1469, Senate Bill 5242, House Bill 1134, Senate Bill 5120, House Bill 1110, House Bill 1042, House Bill 1293, Senate Bill 5412, House Bill 1474, House Bill 1074, Senate Bill 5080, Senate Bill 5236, Senate Bill 5217, House Bill 1240, House Bill 1143, Senate Bill 5078, Senate Bill 5352, Senate Bill 5087, House Bill 1324, Senate Bill 5440, Senate Bill 5536, House Bill 1238, House Bill 1436.
Proclamations: - Recognizing June 2nd as the Gun Violence Awareness Day
- Co-sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss and Council President Pro Tempore Lisa Herbold
- 6 signature affixed
- Recognizing May 27, 2023, as Eritrean Independence Day
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 6 signature affixed
- Recognizing June 2023, as LGBTQ Month
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 6 signature affixed
- Recognizing May 28th as Pride Asia Day
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 6 signature affixed
Public Comments: - Many commenters spoke in support of the tree ordinance, arguing it is balanced and a necessary compromise.
- Many commenters spoke against the tree ordinance, commenting it disproportionately benefits developers at the expense of environmental health, affordable housing, and social equity.
- Many commenters urged the council to delay voting on the tree protection bill to further consult stakeholders.
Resources: - If you have any questions or feedback, please email us at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]), and we will get the answers to your questions from the city council.
- Sign up here to receive this letter after every city council meeting.
- Go to https://www.purplely.org/ to get to know all the candidates in this year’s city council elections.
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2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on
EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
S&P Sectors for this past week:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
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2023.06.02 23:38 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on
StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
S&P Sectors for this past week:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
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2023.06.02 23:38 Ok-Supermarket4492 Introducing Seattle City Council Newsletter
Hi Reddit! My name is Sharon, and I am a college student interested in civic engagement and politics. I have been working on a project with some other students to make the Seattle City Council meetings more accessible by putting them into short summaries. I have put an example from last week below, though the real thing has a bit more formatting that doesn't translate into Reddit.
This project is relatively new, so we would really appreciate any feedback you may have and hope to make it as informative and accessible as possible! If you're interested in getting these newsletters every week, please click here:
https://forms.gle/Yxo5fevVhVWmwcB78.
Example newsletter:
Seattle City Council Meeting Summaries - Week of May 22 Council Briefing 5/22/2023 (Duration: 1h50min)
- 6 Present - Council President Debora Juarez, Councilmembers Andrew Lewis and Kshama Sawant are absent and excused, and Councilmember Sara Nelson arrived late.
Council Meeting 5/23/2023 (Duration: 2h56min)
- 7 Present - Council President Debora Juarez and Councilmember Kshama Sawant are absent and excused.
Councilmember Updates - Councilmember Lisa Herbold: District 1
- There is no item from the Public Safety and Human Services Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- The next committee meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, May 23rd.
- They will receive a briefing on overdose trends and harm reduction approaches from Public Health Seattle & King County and a panel of community-based overdose prevention program grantees.
- Will hear an overview of the proposed Council Bill 120580 regarding app-based workers' deactivation rights.
- Met with Chief Diaz, Southwest Precinct Captain Rivera, Director Betts of the Office of Police Accountability, Fire Chief Scoggins, and the leadership of the Community Police Commission individually.
- The Harbor Patrol unit is ready for the summer increase in calls for marine-related law enforcement and assistance.
- There will be a fire day on the 124th anniversary of the Great Seattle Fire at MOHAI at South Lake Union.
- Remind that the Seattle Emergency Hubs will be hosting disaster preparedness training on June 11th.
- Provided public comment to the King County Flood Control District in support of funding to address the river-topping flood in South Park.
- Will receive a tour and do a helpline listening shift at Crisis Connections next Wednesday.
- Councilmember Tammy Morales: District 2
- The Arts and Civil Rights Committee meeting from last week was canceled due to the holiday weekend, and the next meeting is scheduled for June 9th.
- The first meeting of the new Social Housing Developer Board is scheduled for May 23rd.
- Attended a neighborhood safety meeting with organizations in Seattle's Chinatown-International District (CID) and Social Housing Public Development Authority (PDA).
- Attended a workshop with SDOT and Sound Transit to discuss some issues in the Othello neighborhood and Rainier Beach neighborhoods.
- Attended the Evergreen Treatment Services’ 50-year anniversary, the One Seattle Day of Service, and an event for the African Cultural Arts Center.
- Spoke at the Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Celebration hosted by the Department of Neighborhoods and the Seattle AAPI Caucus.
- Councilmember Alex Pedersen: District 4
- There are twelve items from the Transportation and Seattle Public Utilities Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- Will present ten appointments, Council Bill 120557, and Council Bill 120574.
- The next Transportation and Seattle Public Utilities Committee meeting is scheduled for June 6th.
- Participated in the One Seattle Day of Service last Saturday.
- Councilmember Dan Strauss: District 6
- There are two items from the Land Use Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- Will present Council Bill 120534, which is a tree protection bill, and Council Bill 120535, which is a tree protection budget bill.
- Passed the Tree Protection Ordinance after making 50 amendments.
- The bill will be presented to the full council meeting on May 23rd for public comments and votes.
- Welcomed all city council members to attend the Land Use Committee meeting.
- Set the deadline for submitting amendments to Wednesday, May 17th.
- There will be a public hearing on May 24.
- The city council will vote on the passage of the bill on June 20th.
- Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda: Citywide
- There are three items from the Finance and Housing Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday
- Will present Council Bill 120572, which approves the 2022 budget increases.
- Will present Council Bill 120573, which requests approval for a 2023 budget increase, and Council Bill.
- Heard the April forecast report from the Office of Economic and Revenue forecast last week.
- The next Housing Levy Committee will meet on May 31st to prepare the introduction of the Housing Levy Proposal.
- The Committee will meet again on June 7th to vote on any amendments before being presented to the full council.
- The Finance and Housing Committee will meet again in early July to discuss the revenue situation.
- Recognize the opening of a Community Field sponsored by the Seattle Housing Authority, the Rave Foundation, and Sounders FC.
- Councilmember Sara Nelson: Citywide
- There are two items from the Economic Development, Technology, and City Light Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- Will present Council Bill 120576, which is a distribution easement ordinance.
- Will present Council Bill 120576, which is a platted easement ordinance.
- Release legislation that makes the use of illegal drugs in public spaces a simple misdemeanor with Councilmember Pedersen last week.
- Updated the original bill to align with the state law. The updated bill will be presented to the full council on June 6th.
- Joined King County Councilmember Reagan Dunn, State Representative Lauren Davis, and King County Department of Community and Human Services Leo Flor for the King County’s 2023 Conference on Substance Disorder on Thursday, May 11.
- Attended the 49th Seattle International Film Festival, the Port of Seattle’s annual Maritime Day breakfast.
- Participated in the mid-authorization of a bill passed by the Metropolitan Improvement District with the Mayor, Councilmember Andrew Lewis, and the downtown community.
- Met with the new CEO of MoPOP, Michelle Smith.
Legislation Updates - Council Bill 120578: AN ORDINANCE relating to City employment, commonly referred to as the Second Quarter 2023 Employment Ordinance; returning positions to the civil service system; exempting positions from the civil service system; and amending Section 4.13.010 of the Seattle Municipal Code; all by a 2/3 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Council President Debora Juarez; presented by Councilmember Alex Pedersen
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120534: AN ORDINANCE relating to tree protection; balancing the need for housing production and increasing tree protections; and amending Sections 23.44.020, 23.47A.016, 23.48.055, 23.76.004, 23.76.006, and Chapter 25.11 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss
- Councilmember Pedersen made a motion to postpone the vote to June 22nd.
- 2 Yes (Councilmember Herbold and Pedersen) and 5 No
- 6 Yes and 1 No (Councilmember Pedersen)
- Council Bill 120535: AN ORDINANCE amending Ordinance 126725, which adopted the 2023 Budget; changing appropriations for various departments and budget control levels, and from various funds; and creating positions; all by a 3/4 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120572: AN ORDINANCE amending Ordinance 126490, which adopted the 2022 Budget, including the 2022-2027 Capital Improvement Program (CIP); changing appropriations to various departments and budget control levels, and from various funds in the Budget; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts; all by a 3/4 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Teresa Masqueda
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120573: AN ORDINANCE amending Ordinance 126725, which adopted the 2023 Budget, including the 2023-2028 Capital Improvement Program (CIP); changing appropriations to various departments and budget control levels, and from various funds in the Budget; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts; all by a 3/4 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120563: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon Madison Middle School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120564: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon Magnolia Elementary School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120565: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon Daniel Bagley Elementary School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120566: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon West Seattle High School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120557: AN ORDINANCE relating to the Department of Transportation's Hazard Mitigation Program; authorizing the Director of the Department of Transportation to acquire, accept, and record, on behalf of The City of Seattle, a Catchment Wall Easement from Paul Tan and Ly Ngoc Tan, a married couple, located in a portion of Lot 7, Block 35, Rainier Beach, and a Catchment Wall Easement from Gracie Lee Young, located in a portion of Lot 8, Block 35, Rainier Beach; for the purpose of extending the protection of the adjacent roadway of superficial surface erosion of the adjacent slopes along a portion of Rainier Avenue South; placing the real property rights under the jurisdiction of the Seattle Department of Transportation; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Alex Pedersen
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120574: AN ORDINANCE relating to Seattle Public Utilities; declaring certain real property rights at the Foy Pump Station property (500 NE 145th St) as being surplus to the City's municipal utility needs; authorizing the sale of 451 square feet of King County Parcel 756870-0780 and 460 square feet of King County Parcel 756870-0775, and granting 1,201 square feet and 453 square feet on the same respective parcels for 3-year term temporary construction easements to the City of Shoreline for the purposes of the 145th Street and I-5 Interchange Project; directing the proceeds therefrom to Seattle Public Utilities' Water Fund; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Alex Pedersen
- 7 Yes
State Legislation Update: The Office of Intergovernmental Relations (OIR) director Gael Tarleton, State Relations Director Samir Junejo, and State Legislative Liaison Anna Johnson gave a presentation on legislation regarding climate and environment, healthcare and behavioral health, housing and homelessness, labor and commerce, public safety, drug possession and treatment, social programs and education, the capital budget, transportation.
- Here are links to some of the bills: Senate Bill 5144, House Bill 1181, House Bill 1216, Senate Bill 5165, House Bill 1329, Senate Bill 5082, House Bill 1155, House Bill 1340, House Bill 1469, Senate Bill 5242, House Bill 1134, Senate Bill 5120, House Bill 1110, House Bill 1042, House Bill 1293, Senate Bill 5412, House Bill 1474, House Bill 1074, Senate Bill 5080, Senate Bill 5236, Senate Bill 5217, House Bill 1240, House Bill 1143, Senate Bill 5078, Senate Bill 5352, Senate Bill 5087, House Bill 1324, Senate Bill 5440, Senate Bill 5536, House Bill 1238, House Bill 1436.
Proclamations: - Recognizing June 2nd as the Gun Violence Awareness Day
- Co-sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss and Council President Pro Tempore Lisa Herbold
- 6 signature affixed
- Recognizing May 27, 2023, as Eritrean Independence Day
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 6 signature affixed
- Recognizing June 2023, as LGBTQ Month
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 6 signature affixed
- Recognizing May 28th as Pride Asia Day
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 6 signature affixed
Public Comments: - Many commenters spoke in support of the tree ordinance, arguing it is balanced and a necessary compromise.
- Many commenters spoke against the tree ordinance, commenting it disproportionately benefits developers at the expense of environmental health, affordable housing, and social equity.
- Many commenters urged the council to delay voting on the tree protection bill to further consult stakeholders.
Resources: - If you have any questions or feedback, please email us at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]), and we will get the answers to your questions from the city council.
- Sign up here to receive this letter after every city council meeting.
- Go to https://www.purplely.org/ to get to know all the candidates in this year’s city council elections.
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2023.06.02 23:37 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on
FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
S&P Sectors for this past week:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
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2023.06.02 23:36 Ok-Supermarket4492 Introducing Seattle City Council Newsletter
Hi Reddit! My name is Sharon, and I am a college student interested in civic engagement and politics. I have been working on a project with some other students to make the Seattle City Council meetings more accessible by putting them into short summaries. I have put an example from last week below, though the real thing has a bit more formatting that doesn't translate into Reddit.
This project is relatively new, so we would really appreciate any feedback you may have and hope to make it as informative and accessible as possible! If you're interested in getting these newsletters every week, please click here:
https://forms.gle/Yxo5fevVhVWmwcB78.
Example newsletter:
Seattle City Council Meeting Summaries - Week of May 22 Council Briefing 5/22/2023 (Duration: 1h50min)
- 6 Present - Council President Debora Juarez, Councilmembers Andrew Lewis and Kshama Sawant are absent and excused, and Councilmember Sara Nelson arrived late.
Council Meeting 5/23/2023 (Duration: 2h56min)
- 7 Present - Council President Debora Juarez and Councilmember Kshama Sawant are absent and excused.
Councilmember Updates - Councilmember Lisa Herbold: District 1
- There is no item from the Public Safety and Human Services Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- The next committee meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, May 23rd.
- They will receive a briefing on overdose trends and harm reduction approaches from Public Health Seattle & King County and a panel of community-based overdose prevention program grantees.
- Will hear an overview of the proposed Council Bill 120580 regarding app-based workers' deactivation rights.
- Met with Chief Diaz, Southwest Precinct Captain Rivera, Director Betts of the Office of Police Accountability, Fire Chief Scoggins, and the leadership of the Community Police Commission individually.
- The Harbor Patrol unit is ready for the summer increase in calls for marine-related law enforcement and assistance.
- There will be a fire day on the 124th anniversary of the Great Seattle Fire at MOHAI at South Lake Union.
- Remind that the Seattle Emergency Hubs will be hosting disaster preparedness training on June 11th.
- Provided public comment to the King County Flood Control District in support of funding to address the river-topping flood in South Park.
- Will receive a tour and do a helpline listening shift at Crisis Connections next Wednesday.
- Councilmember Tammy Morales: District 2
- The Arts and Civil Rights Committee meeting from last week was canceled due to the holiday weekend, and the next meeting is scheduled for June 9th.
- The first meeting of the new Social Housing Developer Board is scheduled for May 23rd.
- Attended a neighborhood safety meeting with organizations in Seattle's Chinatown-International District (CID) and Social Housing Public Development Authority (PDA).
- Attended a workshop with SDOT and Sound Transit to discuss some issues in the Othello neighborhood and Rainier Beach neighborhoods.
- Attended the Evergreen Treatment Services’ 50-year anniversary, the One Seattle Day of Service, and an event for the African Cultural Arts Center.
- Spoke at the Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Celebration hosted by the Department of Neighborhoods and the Seattle AAPI Caucus.
- Councilmember Alex Pedersen: District 4
- There are twelve items from the Transportation and Seattle Public Utilities Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- Will present ten appointments, Council Bill 120557, and Council Bill 120574.
- The next Transportation and Seattle Public Utilities Committee meeting is scheduled for June 6th.
- Participated in the One Seattle Day of Service last Saturday.
- Councilmember Dan Strauss: District 6
- There are two items from the Land Use Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- Will present Council Bill 120534, which is a tree protection bill, and Council Bill 120535, which is a tree protection budget bill.
- Passed the Tree Protection Ordinance after making 50 amendments.
- The bill will be presented to the full council meeting on May 23rd for public comments and votes.
- Welcomed all city council members to attend the Land Use Committee meeting.
- Set the deadline for submitting amendments to Wednesday, May 17th.
- There will be a public hearing on May 24.
- The city council will vote on the passage of the bill on June 20th.
- Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda: Citywide
- There are three items from the Finance and Housing Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday
- Will present Council Bill 120572, which approves the 2022 budget increases.
- Will present Council Bill 120573, which requests approval for a 2023 budget increase, and Council Bill.
- Heard the April forecast report from the Office of Economic and Revenue forecast last week.
- The next Housing Levy Committee will meet on May 31st to prepare the introduction of the Housing Levy Proposal.
- The Committee will meet again on June 7th to vote on any amendments before being presented to the full council.
- The Finance and Housing Committee will meet again in early July to discuss the revenue situation.
- Recognize the opening of a Community Field sponsored by the Seattle Housing Authority, the Rave Foundation, and Sounders FC.
- Councilmember Sara Nelson: Citywide
- There are two items from the Economic Development, Technology, and City Light Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- Will present Council Bill 120576, which is a distribution easement ordinance.
- Will present Council Bill 120576, which is a platted easement ordinance.
- Release legislation that makes the use of illegal drugs in public spaces a simple misdemeanor with Councilmember Pedersen last week.
- Updated the original bill to align with the state law. The updated bill will be presented to the full council on June 6th.
- Joined King County Councilmember Reagan Dunn, State Representative Lauren Davis, and King County Department of Community and Human Services Leo Flor for the King County’s 2023 Conference on Substance Disorder on Thursday, May 11.
- Attended the 49th Seattle International Film Festival, the Port of Seattle’s annual Maritime Day breakfast.
- Participated in the mid-authorization of a bill passed by the Metropolitan Improvement District with the Mayor, Councilmember Andrew Lewis, and the downtown community.
- Met with the new CEO of MoPOP, Michelle Smith.
Legislation Updates - Council Bill 120578: AN ORDINANCE relating to City employment, commonly referred to as the Second Quarter 2023 Employment Ordinance; returning positions to the civil service system; exempting positions from the civil service system; and amending Section 4.13.010 of the Seattle Municipal Code; all by a 2/3 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Council President Debora Juarez; presented by Councilmember Alex Pedersen
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120534: AN ORDINANCE relating to tree protection; balancing the need for housing production and increasing tree protections; and amending Sections 23.44.020, 23.47A.016, 23.48.055, 23.76.004, 23.76.006, and Chapter 25.11 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss
- Councilmember Pedersen made a motion to postpone the vote to June 22nd.
- 2 Yes (Councilmember Herbold and Pedersen) and 5 No
- 6 Yes and 1 No (Councilmember Pedersen)
- Council Bill 120535: AN ORDINANCE amending Ordinance 126725, which adopted the 2023 Budget; changing appropriations for various departments and budget control levels, and from various funds; and creating positions; all by a 3/4 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120572: AN ORDINANCE amending Ordinance 126490, which adopted the 2022 Budget, including the 2022-2027 Capital Improvement Program (CIP); changing appropriations to various departments and budget control levels, and from various funds in the Budget; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts; all by a 3/4 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Teresa Masqueda
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120573: AN ORDINANCE amending Ordinance 126725, which adopted the 2023 Budget, including the 2023-2028 Capital Improvement Program (CIP); changing appropriations to various departments and budget control levels, and from various funds in the Budget; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts; all by a 3/4 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120563: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon Madison Middle School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120564: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon Magnolia Elementary School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120565: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon Daniel Bagley Elementary School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120566: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon West Seattle High School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120557: AN ORDINANCE relating to the Department of Transportation's Hazard Mitigation Program; authorizing the Director of the Department of Transportation to acquire, accept, and record, on behalf of The City of Seattle, a Catchment Wall Easement from Paul Tan and Ly Ngoc Tan, a married couple, located in a portion of Lot 7, Block 35, Rainier Beach, and a Catchment Wall Easement from Gracie Lee Young, located in a portion of Lot 8, Block 35, Rainier Beach; for the purpose of extending the protection of the adjacent roadway of superficial surface erosion of the adjacent slopes along a portion of Rainier Avenue South; placing the real property rights under the jurisdiction of the Seattle Department of Transportation; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Alex Pedersen
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120574: AN ORDINANCE relating to Seattle Public Utilities; declaring certain real property rights at the Foy Pump Station property (500 NE 145th St) as being surplus to the City's municipal utility needs; authorizing the sale of 451 square feet of King County Parcel 756870-0780 and 460 square feet of King County Parcel 756870-0775, and granting 1,201 square feet and 453 square feet on the same respective parcels for 3-year term temporary construction easements to the City of Shoreline for the purposes of the 145th Street and I-5 Interchange Project; directing the proceeds therefrom to Seattle Public Utilities' Water Fund; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Alex Pedersen
- 7 Yes
State Legislation Update: The Office of Intergovernmental Relations (OIR) director Gael Tarleton, State Relations Director Samir Junejo, and State Legislative Liaison Anna Johnson gave a presentation on legislation regarding climate and environment, healthcare and behavioral health, housing and homelessness, labor and commerce, public safety, drug possession and treatment, social programs and education, the capital budget, transportation.
- Here are links to some of the bills: Senate Bill 5144, House Bill 1181, House Bill 1216, Senate Bill 5165, House Bill 1329, Senate Bill 5082, House Bill 1155, House Bill 1340, House Bill 1469, Senate Bill 5242, House Bill 1134, Senate Bill 5120, House Bill 1110, House Bill 1042, House Bill 1293, Senate Bill 5412, House Bill 1474, House Bill 1074, Senate Bill 5080, Senate Bill 5236, Senate Bill 5217, House Bill 1240, House Bill 1143, Senate Bill 5078, Senate Bill 5352, Senate Bill 5087, House Bill 1324, Senate Bill 5440, Senate Bill 5536, House Bill 1238, House Bill 1436.
Proclamations: - Recognizing June 2nd as the Gun Violence Awareness Day
- Co-sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss and Council President Pro Tempore Lisa Herbold
- 6 signature affixed
- Recognizing May 27, 2023, as Eritrean Independence Day
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 6 signature affixed
- Recognizing June 2023, as LGBTQ Month
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 6 signature affixed
- Recognizing May 28th as Pride Asia Day
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 6 signature affixed
Public Comments: - Many commenters spoke in support of the tree ordinance, arguing it is balanced and a necessary compromise.
- Many commenters spoke against the tree ordinance, commenting it disproportionately benefits developers at the expense of environmental health, affordable housing, and social equity.
- Many commenters urged the council to delay voting on the tree protection bill to further consult stakeholders.
Resources: - If you have any questions or feedback, please email us at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]), and we will get the answers to your questions from the city council.
- Sign up here to receive this letter after every city council meeting.
- Go to https://www.purplely.org/ to get to know all the candidates in this year’s city council elections.
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2023.06.02 23:35 Ok-Supermarket4492 Introducing Seattle City Council Newsletter
Hi Reddit! My name is Sharon, and I am a college student interested in civic engagement and politics. I have been working on a project with some other students to make the Seattle City Council meetings more accessible by putting them into short summaries. I have put an example from last week below, though the real thing has a bit more formatting that doesn't translate into Reddit.
This project is relatively new, so we would really appreciate any feedback you may have and hope to make it as informative and accessible as possible! If you're interested in getting these newsletters every week, please click here:
https://forms.gle/Yxo5fevVhVWmwcB78.
Example newsletter:
Seattle City Council Meeting Summaries - Week of May 22 Council Briefing 5/22/2023 (Duration: 1h50min)
- 6 Present - Council President Debora Juarez, Councilmembers Andrew Lewis and Kshama Sawant are absent and excused, and Councilmember Sara Nelson arrived late.
Council Meeting 5/23/2023 (Duration: 2h56min)
- 7 Present - Council President Debora Juarez and Councilmember Kshama Sawant are absent and excused.
Councilmember Updates - Councilmember Lisa Herbold: District 1
- There is no item from the Public Safety and Human Services Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- The next committee meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, May 23rd.
- They will receive a briefing on overdose trends and harm reduction approaches from Public Health Seattle & King County and a panel of community-based overdose prevention program grantees.
- Will hear an overview of the proposed Council Bill 120580 regarding app-based workers' deactivation rights.
- Met with Chief Diaz, Southwest Precinct Captain Rivera, Director Betts of the Office of Police Accountability, Fire Chief Scoggins, and the leadership of the Community Police Commission individually.
- The Harbor Patrol unit is ready for the summer increase in calls for marine-related law enforcement and assistance.
- There will be a fire day on the 124th anniversary of the Great Seattle Fire at MOHAI at South Lake Union.
- Remind that the Seattle Emergency Hubs will be hosting disaster preparedness training on June 11th.
- Provided public comment to the King County Flood Control District in support of funding to address the river-topping flood in South Park.
- Will receive a tour and do a helpline listening shift at Crisis Connections next Wednesday.
- Councilmember Tammy Morales: District 2
- The Arts and Civil Rights Committee meeting from last week was canceled due to the holiday weekend, and the next meeting is scheduled for June 9th.
- The first meeting of the new Social Housing Developer Board is scheduled for May 23rd.
- Attended a neighborhood safety meeting with organizations in Seattle's Chinatown-International District (CID) and Social Housing Public Development Authority (PDA).
- Attended a workshop with SDOT and Sound Transit to discuss some issues in the Othello neighborhood and Rainier Beach neighborhoods.
- Attended the Evergreen Treatment Services’ 50-year anniversary, the One Seattle Day of Service, and an event for the African Cultural Arts Center.
- Spoke at the Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Celebration hosted by the Department of Neighborhoods and the Seattle AAPI Caucus.
- Councilmember Alex Pedersen: District 4
- There are twelve items from the Transportation and Seattle Public Utilities Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- Will present ten appointments, Council Bill 120557, and Council Bill 120574.
- The next Transportation and Seattle Public Utilities Committee meeting is scheduled for June 6th.
- Participated in the One Seattle Day of Service last Saturday.
- Councilmember Dan Strauss: District 6
- There are two items from the Land Use Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- Will present Council Bill 120534, which is a tree protection bill, and Council Bill 120535, which is a tree protection budget bill.
- Passed the Tree Protection Ordinance after making 50 amendments.
- The bill will be presented to the full council meeting on May 23rd for public comments and votes.
- Welcomed all city council members to attend the Land Use Committee meeting.
- Set the deadline for submitting amendments to Wednesday, May 17th.
- There will be a public hearing on May 24.
- The city council will vote on the passage of the bill on June 20th.
- Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda: Citywide
- There are three items from the Finance and Housing Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday
- Will present Council Bill 120572, which approves the 2022 budget increases.
- Will present Council Bill 120573, which requests approval for a 2023 budget increase, and Council Bill.
- Heard the April forecast report from the Office of Economic and Revenue forecast last week.
- The next Housing Levy Committee will meet on May 31st to prepare the introduction of the Housing Levy Proposal.
- The Committee will meet again on June 7th to vote on any amendments before being presented to the full council.
- The Finance and Housing Committee will meet again in early July to discuss the revenue situation.
- Recognize the opening of a Community Field sponsored by the Seattle Housing Authority, the Rave Foundation, and Sounders FC.
- Councilmember Sara Nelson: Citywide
- There are two items from the Economic Development, Technology, and City Light Committee for the full council meeting on Tuesday.
- Will present Council Bill 120576, which is a distribution easement ordinance.
- Will present Council Bill 120576, which is a platted easement ordinance.
- Release legislation that makes the use of illegal drugs in public spaces a simple misdemeanor with Councilmember Pedersen last week.
- Updated the original bill to align with the state law. The updated bill will be presented to the full council on June 6th.
- Joined King County Councilmember Reagan Dunn, State Representative Lauren Davis, and King County Department of Community and Human Services Leo Flor for the King County’s 2023 Conference on Substance Disorder on Thursday, May 11.
- Attended the 49th Seattle International Film Festival, the Port of Seattle’s annual Maritime Day breakfast.
- Participated in the mid-authorization of a bill passed by the Metropolitan Improvement District with the Mayor, Councilmember Andrew Lewis, and the downtown community.
- Met with the new CEO of MoPOP, Michelle Smith.
Legislation Updates - Council Bill 120578: AN ORDINANCE relating to City employment, commonly referred to as the Second Quarter 2023 Employment Ordinance; returning positions to the civil service system; exempting positions from the civil service system; and amending Section 4.13.010 of the Seattle Municipal Code; all by a 2/3 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Council President Debora Juarez; presented by Councilmember Alex Pedersen
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120534: AN ORDINANCE relating to tree protection; balancing the need for housing production and increasing tree protections; and amending Sections 23.44.020, 23.47A.016, 23.48.055, 23.76.004, 23.76.006, and Chapter 25.11 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss
- Councilmember Pedersen made a motion to postpone the vote to June 22nd.
- 2 Yes (Councilmember Herbold and Pedersen) and 5 No
- 6 Yes and 1 No (Councilmember Pedersen)
- Council Bill 120535: AN ORDINANCE amending Ordinance 126725, which adopted the 2023 Budget; changing appropriations for various departments and budget control levels, and from various funds; and creating positions; all by a 3/4 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120572: AN ORDINANCE amending Ordinance 126490, which adopted the 2022 Budget, including the 2022-2027 Capital Improvement Program (CIP); changing appropriations to various departments and budget control levels, and from various funds in the Budget; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts; all by a 3/4 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Teresa Masqueda
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120573: AN ORDINANCE amending Ordinance 126725, which adopted the 2023 Budget, including the 2023-2028 Capital Improvement Program (CIP); changing appropriations to various departments and budget control levels, and from various funds in the Budget; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts; all by a 3/4 vote of the City Council.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120563: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon Madison Middle School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120564: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon Magnolia Elementary School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120565: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon Daniel Bagley Elementary School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120566: AN ORDINANCE relating to historic preservation; imposing controls upon West Seattle High School, a landmark designated by the Landmarks Preservation Board under Chapter 25.12 of the Seattle Municipal Code, and adding it to the Table of Historical Landmarks contained in Chapter 25.32 of the Seattle Municipal Code.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120557: AN ORDINANCE relating to the Department of Transportation's Hazard Mitigation Program; authorizing the Director of the Department of Transportation to acquire, accept, and record, on behalf of The City of Seattle, a Catchment Wall Easement from Paul Tan and Ly Ngoc Tan, a married couple, located in a portion of Lot 7, Block 35, Rainier Beach, and a Catchment Wall Easement from Gracie Lee Young, located in a portion of Lot 8, Block 35, Rainier Beach; for the purpose of extending the protection of the adjacent roadway of superficial surface erosion of the adjacent slopes along a portion of Rainier Avenue South; placing the real property rights under the jurisdiction of the Seattle Department of Transportation; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Alex Pedersen
- 7 Yes
- Council Bill 120574: AN ORDINANCE relating to Seattle Public Utilities; declaring certain real property rights at the Foy Pump Station property (500 NE 145th St) as being surplus to the City's municipal utility needs; authorizing the sale of 451 square feet of King County Parcel 756870-0780 and 460 square feet of King County Parcel 756870-0775, and granting 1,201 square feet and 453 square feet on the same respective parcels for 3-year term temporary construction easements to the City of Shoreline for the purposes of the 145th Street and I-5 Interchange Project; directing the proceeds therefrom to Seattle Public Utilities' Water Fund; and ratifying and confirming certain prior acts.
- Sponsored by Councilmember Alex Pedersen
- 7 Yes
State Legislation Update: The Office of Intergovernmental Relations (OIR) director Gael Tarleton, State Relations Director Samir Junejo, and State Legislative Liaison Anna Johnson gave a presentation on legislation regarding climate and environment, healthcare and behavioral health, housing and homelessness, labor and commerce, public safety, drug possession and treatment, social programs and education, the capital budget, transportation.
- Here are links to some of the bills: Senate Bill 5144, House Bill 1181, House Bill 1216, Senate Bill 5165, House Bill 1329, Senate Bill 5082, House Bill 1155, House Bill 1340, House Bill 1469, Senate Bill 5242, House Bill 1134, Senate Bill 5120, House Bill 1110, House Bill 1042, House Bill 1293, Senate Bill 5412, House Bill 1474, House Bill 1074, Senate Bill 5080, Senate Bill 5236, Senate Bill 5217, House Bill 1240, House Bill 1143, Senate Bill 5078, Senate Bill 5352, Senate Bill 5087, House Bill 1324, Senate Bill 5440, Senate Bill 5536, House Bill 1238, House Bill 1436.
Proclamations: - Recognizing June 2nd as the Gun Violence Awareness Day
- Co-sponsored by Councilmember Daniel Strauss and Council President Pro Tempore Lisa Herbold
- 6 signature affixed
- Recognizing May 27, 2023, as Eritrean Independence Day
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 6 signature affixed
- Recognizing June 2023, as LGBTQ Month
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 6 signature affixed
- Recognizing May 28th as Pride Asia Day
- Sponsored by Councilmember Tammy Morales
- 6 signature affixed
Public Comments: - Many commenters spoke in support of the tree ordinance, arguing it is balanced and a necessary compromise.
- Many commenters spoke against the tree ordinance, commenting it disproportionately benefits developers at the expense of environmental health, affordable housing, and social equity.
- Many commenters urged the council to delay voting on the tree protection bill to further consult stakeholders.
Resources: - If you have any questions or feedback, please email us at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]), and we will get the answers to your questions from the city council.
- Sign up here to receive this letter after every city council meeting.
- Go to https://www.purplely.org/ to get to know all the candidates in this year’s city council elections.
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2023.06.02 23:35 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on
stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
S&P Sectors for this past week:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
(*T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead stocks. :)
submitted by
bigbear0083 to
stocks [link] [comments]
2023.06.02 23:34 Butterlord120 Router randomly not giving any internet
Hi,
I've been experiencing this issue for a while now where my router will randomly just lose all internet and won't start functioning again until I reboot it. Recently I had it happen once a day for about 3 days straight, I did do a factory reset on the router recently and it had no problems for 3 days until today.
When it did this at one point I connected my computer to the modem directly and that was giving me internet, while my router was not. So it's something with the router seemingly, but there's no pattern which makes it hard to say if its messed up physically. As I've gone multiple weeks previously without issues and then other times it'll be a problem daily for a few days and go away again.
Another strange issue is that when I goto the router's page when the internet "goes down", over ethernet and wifi no internet will be working at all but the dashboard on the router page will still say its connected.
The router is an Asus GT-AC2900 and it was purchased brand new less than a year ago.
it's using firmware: 3.0.0.4.386_51529-g70acb9d which as of this post is the most up to date firmware.
If anyone has any ideas they would be greatly appreciated, thanks.
Below here is a log from today if that is of any use:
Jun 2 15:57:17 kernel: usbcore: registered new interface driver usb-storage
Jun 2 15:57:17 modprobe: module uas not found in modules.dep
Jun 2 15:57:17 rc_service: ntp 1620:notify_rc restart_diskmon
Jun 2 15:57:17 rc_service: waitting "restart_firewall" via ...
Jun 2 15:57:17 modprobe: module mbcache not found in modules.dep
Jun 2 15:57:17 modprobe: module jbd not found in modules.dep
Jun 2 15:57:17 modprobe: module ext3 not found in modules.dep
Jun 2 15:57:17 modprobe: module ext4 not found in modules.dep
Jun 2 15:57:17 modprobe: module ext2 not found in modules.dep
Jun 2 15:57:17 kernel: Tuxera FAT 12/16/32 driver version 3016.7.20 [Flags: W MODULE].
Jun 2 15:57:17 kernel: Built against headers 4.1.27 #4 SMP PREEMPT Wed Jun 5 11:59:06 CST 2019 arm64
Jun 2 15:57:17 kernel: Running on kernel 4.1.27 #2 SMP PREEMPT Sat Apr 8 11:37:30 CST 2023 aarch64
Jun 2 15:57:17 kernel: Tuxera NTFS driver 3018.6.22d [Flags: W MODULE].
Jun 2 15:57:17 kernel: Built against headers 4.1.27 #4 SMP PREEMPT Wed Jun 5 11:59:06 CST 2019 arm64
Jun 2 15:57:17 kernel: Running on kernel 4.1.27 #2 SMP PREEMPT Sat Apr 8 11:37:30 CST 2023 aarch64
Jun 2 15:57:17 kernel: Tuxera HFS+ driver 3017.6.20
Jun 2 15:57:17 kernel: Built against headers 4.1.27 #4 SMP PREEMPT Wed Jun 5 11:59:06 CST 2019 arm64
Jun 2 15:57:17 kernel: Running on kernel 4.1.27 #2 SMP PREEMPT Sat Apr 8 11:37:30 CST 2023 aarch64
Jun 2 15:57:17 modprobe: module btusbdrv not found in modules.dep
Jun 2 15:57:17 init: fwver: 3.0.0.4_386_51529-g70acb9d (sn: /ha:F0:2F:74:C6:5B:10 )
Jun 2 15:57:17 ahs: [read_json]Update ahs JSON file.
Jun 2 15:57:18 miniupnpd[1303]: shutting down MiniUPnPd
Jun 2 15:57:18 miniupnpd: it is advised to use network interface name instead of
192.168.50.1/255.255.255.0 Jun 2 15:57:18 miniupnpd[1722]: HTTP listening on port 36437
Jun 2 15:57:18 miniupnpd[1722]: Listening for NAT-PMP/PCP traffic on port 5351
Jun 2 15:57:18 disk_monitor: Finish
Jun 2 15:57:18 disk monitor: be idle
Jun 2 15:57:18 kernel: HTB: quantum of class 10001 is big. Consider r2q change.
Jun 2 15:57:18 kernel: HTB: quantum of class 20001 is big. Consider r2q change.
Jun 2 15:57:18 kernel: HTB: quantum of class 10009 is big. Consider r2q change.
Jun 2 15:57:18 kernel: HTB: quantum of class 20009 is big. Consider r2q change.
Jun 2 15:57:18 kernel: HTB: quantum of class 10033 is big. Consider r2q change.
Jun 2 15:57:18 dhcp client: bound
198.2.89.98/255.255.255.224 via
198.2.89.97 for 172800 seconds.
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPDISCOVER(br0) bc:20:ba:f4:90:75
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPOFFER(br0)
192.168.50.63 bc:20:ba:f4:90:75
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq[1151]: read /etc/hosts - 20 addresses
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq[1151]: using nameserver
8.8.4.4#53 Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq[1151]: using nameserver
8.8.8.8#53 Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPREQUEST(br0)
192.168.50.232 9e:69:a3:e1:bb:9f
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPACK(br0)
192.168.50.232 9e:69:a3:e1:bb:9f Pixel-3a
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq[1151]: read /etc/hosts - 20 addresses
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq[1151]: using nameserver
8.8.4.4#53 Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq[1151]: using nameserver
8.8.8.8#53 Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPREQUEST(br0)
192.168.50.232 9e:69:a3:e1:bb:9f
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPACK(br0)
192.168.50.232 9e:69:a3:e1:bb:9f Pixel-3a
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq[1151]: read /etc/hosts - 20 addresses
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq[1151]: using nameserver
8.8.4.4#53 Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq[1151]: using nameserver
8.8.8.8#53 Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPREQUEST(br0)
192.168.50.232 9e:69:a3:e1:bb:9f
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPACK(br0)
192.168.50.232 9e:69:a3:e1:bb:9f Pixel-3a
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPREQUEST(br0)
192.168.50.63 bc:20:ba:f4:90:75
Jun 2 15:57:18 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPACK(br0)
192.168.50.63 bc:20:ba:f4:90:75
Jun 2 15:57:22 BONDING: option disabled
Jun 2 15:57:23 roamast: ROAMING Start...
Jun 2 15:58:04 crond[1159]: time disparity of 2670652 minutes detected
Jun 2 15:58:19 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPREQUEST(br0)
192.168.50.251 00:18:61:4f:35:e5
Jun 2 15:58:19 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPACK(br0)
192.168.50.251 00:18:61:4f:35:e5 myx_0018614F35E4
Jun 2 15:58:58 ahs: [read_json]Update ahs JSON file.
Jun 2 15:59:12 WATCHDOG: [FAUPGRADE][auto_firmware_check:(7789)]periodic_check AM 5:53
Jun 2 15:59:12 WATCHDOG: [FAUPGRADE][auto_firmware_check:(7833)]do webs_update
Jun 2 15:59:14 HMA: Download version info failed, retry=[4]
Jun 2 15:59:17 HMA: Download version info failed, retry=[3]
Jun 2 15:59:20 HMA: Download version info failed, retry=[2]
Jun 2 15:59:22 WATCHDOG: [FAUPGRADE][auto_firmware_check:(7851)]retrieve firmware information
Jun 2 15:59:22 WATCHDOG: [FAUPGRADE][auto_firmware_check:(7866)]fimrware update check first time
Jun 2 15:59:22 WATCHDOG: [FAUPGRADE][auto_firmware_check:(7897)]no need to upgrade firmware
Jun 2 15:59:23 HMA: Download version info failed, retry=[1]
Jun 2 15:59:26 HMA: Download version info failed, retry=[0]
Jun 2 16:00:18 disk_monitor: Got SIGALRM...
Jun 2 16:01:52 kernel: eth3 (Ext switch port: 2) (Logical Port: 10) Link UP 100 mbps full duplex
Jun 2 16:01:52 kernel: br0: port 3(eth3) entered listening state
Jun 2 16:01:52 kernel: br0: port 3(eth3) entered listening state
Jun 2 16:01:54 kernel: br0: port 3(eth3) entered learning state
Jun 2 16:01:56 kernel: br0: topology change detected, propagating
Jun 2 16:01:56 kernel: br0: port 3(eth3) entered forwarding state
Jun 2 16:02:00 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPDISCOVER(br0) 1c:1e:1e:f1:da:18
Jun 2 16:02:00 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPOFFER(br0)
192.168.50.233 1c:1e:1e:f1:da:18
Jun 2 16:02:00 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPREQUEST(br0)
192.168.50.233 1c:1e:1e:f1:da:18
Jun 2 16:02:00 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPACK(br0)
192.168.50.233 1c:1e:1e:f1:da:18
Jun 2 16:02:23 wlceventd: wlceventd_proc_event(530): eth6: Auth 8C:85:90:27:B4:67, status: Successful (0), rssi:0
Jun 2 16:02:23 wlceventd: wlceventd_proc_event(559): eth6: Assoc 8C:85:90:27:B4:67, status: Successful (0), rssi:0
Jun 2 16:02:23 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPREQUEST(br0)
192.168.50.179 8c:85:90:27:b4:67
Jun 2 16:02:23 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPACK(br0)
192.168.50.179 8c:85:90:27:b4:67 Koreys-MBP
Jun 2 16:03:56 wlceventd: wlceventd_proc_event(530): eth5: Auth 32:81:50:75:44:BA, status: Successful (0), rssi:0
Jun 2 16:03:56 wlceventd: wlceventd_proc_event(559): eth5: Assoc 32:81:50:75:44:BA, status: Successful (0), rssi:0
Jun 2 16:03:57 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPREQUEST(br0)
192.168.50.150 32:81:50:75:44:ba
Jun 2 16:03:57 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPACK(br0)
192.168.50.150 32:81:50:75:44:ba
Jun 2 16:23:55 kernel: nf_conntrack: automatic helper assignment is deprecated and it will be removed soon. Use the iptables CT target to attach helpers instead.
Jun 2 16:26:30 wlceventd: wlceventd_proc_event(511): eth6: Disassoc 8C:85:90:27:B4:67, status: 0, reason: Disassociated because sending station is leaving (or has left) BSS (8), rssi:0
Jun 2 16:53:14 kernel: eth4 (Ext switch port: 3) (Logical Port: 11) Link DOWN.
Jun 2 16:53:14 kernel: br0: port 4(eth4) entered disabled state
Jun 2 16:54:06 kernel: eth4 (Ext switch port: 3) (Logical Port: 11) Link UP 100 mbps full duplex
Jun 2 16:54:06 kernel: br0: port 4(eth4) entered listening state
Jun 2 16:54:06 kernel: br0: port 4(eth4) entered listening state
Jun 2 16:54:08 kernel: br0: port 4(eth4) entered learning state
Jun 2 16:54:10 kernel: br0: topology change detected, propagating
Jun 2 16:54:10 kernel: br0: port 4(eth4) entered forwarding state
Jun 2 16:54:13 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPREQUEST(br0)
192.168.50.210 18:c0:4d:91:09:b5
Jun 2 16:54:13 dnsmasq-dhcp[1151]: DHCPACK(br0)
192.168.50.210 18:c0:4d:91:09:b5 DESKTOP-HI2IKS0
submitted by
Butterlord120 to
HomeNetworking [link] [comments]