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2012.01.07 07:39 MAGFest: The Music And Gaming Festival

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2023.06.03 03:00 EchoJobs Netskope is hiring Sr. Staff Engineer, Foundation Services US Santa Clara, CA [Kubernetes Microservices Python Go]

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2023.06.03 03:00 EchoJobs Netskope is hiring Sr. Staff Engineer, Foundation Services US Santa Clara, CA [Kubernetes Microservices Python Go]

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2023.06.03 02:56 BillThePsycho Can Hollister handle all of this growth?

I have been living in Hollister pretty much all my life. Family Moved here in ‘99 when I was 2 1/2. I’ve seen this town change a lot in the time I’ve been here, can’t even imagine how different it must look to people that have been here forever. But one constant I’ve seen throughout all this change is constant growth. There’s always been constant construction, new homes popping up left and right. Brand new neighborhoods appearing over night basically.
But we still have the same 3 or so roads leading in and out of town. Fairview, 156, and 25. The only change I’ve seen with them? How long it takes to get onto 101.
So I gotta ask, Can Hollister handle this continuous growth? People keep getting squeezed out of Santa Clara and Monterey counties because of rising prices, and they flow into here. But how much more can we handle until something snaps?
It took me 30 minutes to drive from my job in Monterey to end up on Freitas RD. And it’s going to take another 30 minutes for me to get from here back home. Half of my commute is spent within a 10 minute drive of my home because of how packed and congested we’re becoming.
Where’s the limit? When is the city going to look at this and say “something has gone wrong.” Or is Hollister doomed to keep expanding its gut but refuses to buy bigger pants until something irreparably breaks?

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2023.06.03 02:49 BeachTransferGirl Last 2 Decisions In

Received Waitlist from USD and Santa Clara last few days. 15Low/3.8High Final Tally: A: Chapman (Deposit), UOP McGeorge; Cal Western, WSCL
WL: LMU, USD, Southwestern, Santa Clara
R: Pepperdine

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2023.06.03 02:36 CarnaSnow Language Laws in Quebec & the “Language Police”

When have they not created controversy?
The language debate has been going on for centuries, and yet, it still manages to garner a lot of attention even today. Whether the attention is positive (rarely) or negative (mostly), it’s there, and I think we need to slow down a little and look at everything we’ve got before giving an opinion.
Many of the complaints are about the fact that anglophones are being refused certain rights or are outright being discriminated against when it comes to receiving provincial services in Quebec. I can’t speak about individuals (because we all know there are some assholes out there, no matter who we’re speaking about), but I can explain the law. And that’s what this post is going to be about.
This series of posts will contain:
- An explanation of the language law (Bill 101 and its recent update, Bill 96), as well as what it means for anglophones, allophones and francophones. (this post)
- An explanation of the OQLF (Office Quebecois de la langue française) as well as what it can do and cannot do. (this post)
- A review of the different language laws of the past (ever wondered what Law 17 was about? Or about what happened in Manitoba during its creation, and after? And what about those laws that Prince Edward Island passed, but of which we don’t have any physical evidence?)
- A little look at Quebec’s position in the past (not a history lesson of course, but I think it can help people understand the province’s position today)
- A link to the different resources I used, if you’d like to read them yourself (a warning however: many will be in French. You can always use Google translate, but please be aware that it may not convey the original meaning)
Moreover, a disclaimer: I am NOT a lawyer or a political analyst, or anything; I’m merely a random person who decided to do some research. I do think my research is accurate, although it is most likely not complete and superficial. I wish I could dig deeper and give you all an amazing analysis, but that’s simply impossible with my current skills. However, I do hope you learn more from this, just like I did, and that it pushes you to investigate further! Don’t hesitate to comment and ask questions, though I can’t guarantee I’ll be able to answer them all.
I’d like to add that this text is greatly influenced by Wikipédia, so I won’t claim to be the only author of it. However, any translations are my own. In relations to that, please forgive any mistakes that may appear in this text; English isn’t my first language, and though I do claim to be bilingual and to have a general great understanding of the language, I do sometimes forget certain terms, unfortunately.
With that said, let’s jump in!

The controversial Bill 101 and the even-more controversial Bill 96

The first ‘ancestor’ of Bill 101 is Bill 63 which was passed at the of the 1960s in an attempt to solve a conflict opposing French Canadians and Italian immigrants in St-Leonard, or at least, that’s where it started; the conflict then became a provincial-wide issue, and the government was pressured to react to it. While it was supposed to promote the use French, it mostly let allophones have access to English schools, which, considering the time…they took advantage of. Can’t blame them, but it did kind of ruin the purpose of the law.
In the 1970s, the Union nationale (who had passed the law) lost to the Liberals of Robert Bourassa, who then decided to attempt to create a new law in 1974: Bill 22 (again, ‘ancestor’ of Bill 101). They somehow managed to make everyone angry. People who supported the use of only French were mad that English could still be used at work without any limits, and people who supported the right to choose were mad that children needed to pass an English knowledge test before being able to be admitted in an English school. It did, however, make French the official language in the province. But the Liberals were hit hard and lost the elections in 1976.
The winners of the election of 1976 were the Parti Quebecois, the creators of Bill 101. The law is passed in 1977, and while a majority of francophones are happy (an approval rate of 80,6%), anglophones are not. That’s because, by making French the reference language in Quebec, English loses its status of sometimes-dominating language in some neighborhoods, and messes with the linguistic balance (mostly in Montreal). Thus, we have the exodus of anglophones; around 83 000 anglophones choose to leave the province during the mandate of the Parti Quebecois. Many left due to fear and frustration, although it’s worth noting that that’s the sort of speech many anglophone newspapers used at the time.
But was the law really that bad? Did it justify so many people being scared and leaving? Well, we have to look a bit more at Bill 101 to understand. Let’s look at it title by title:
Title 1: Has 9 chapters that say that French is the official language of legislation, justice, administration, parapublic organisms, work, trade & affairs and finally, teaching.
Title 2: Defines 5 fundamentals rights that all Quebecers have, namely.
- Everyone has a right to receive communication in French from all governmental branches, professional orders, employees associations and enterprises established in Québec.
- Everyone has a right to speak in French during deliberative assemblies.
- Everyone has a right to work in French.
- Everyone has a right to be served in French and to be informed in French.
- Everyone admissible to studying in Quebec has a right to receive their education in French.
Title 3: About the linguistic officialization, toponomy and francization of civil administration and enterprises
Title 4: It establishes the Conseil supérieur de la langue française.
Title 5 & 6: Defines the provisions and penal sanctions, as well as various transitional provisions.
Now that we’ve established the different titles, let’s take a look at the different provisions:
Langue de la législation et de la justice (Language of legislation and justice) :
Bills and regulations within the National Assembly, the tribunals and the Quebecois judicial system need to be printed, adopted, and sanctioned in BOTH FRENCH AND ENGLISH. Both versions have the same judicial value. State regulations need to be in both languages, but those from municipalities and school service centers don’t necessarily have to be.
Moreover, in a judicial context, it is a person’s right to express themselves in either French or English, orally or on paper.
Langue de l’administration (Language of the administration):
The government, the ministries and other organisms of public administration need to be designated by the French denomination, and their publications, communications, contracts and display also need to be in French. Moreover, administration employees need to have an appropriate knowledge of French.
Langue des organismes parapublics (Language of parapublic organisms) :
Enterprises of public utility, professional orders and their members need to offer their services and the texts destined to the public in French. They must also freely provide a translation of texts that concern them. Communications with the State, moral people and their members is also in French unless there’s an exception. If you want to be a member of a professional order, you must have an appropriate understanding of French.
Langue du travail (Language of work) :
French is the usual and normal language of work. Employers and unions need to communicate with the employees in French and write their collective conventions in French. Promotions and work offers must also be written in French. An employee cannot be penalized because they don’t have sufficient understanding of a language other than French or require the knowledge of a language other than French to get a job (unless, of course, knowledge of this language is necessary for the job).
Langue du commerce et des affaires (Language of trade and affairs) :
French is mandatory for; containers of a product, wrappings, documents, inscriptions, catalogues, brochures, leaflets, commercial directories, softwares, games, toys, adhesion contracts, contracts and documents attached to them, job application forms, purchase orders, bills, receipts, public displays, commercial publicity and names of businesses (for the last 3, there are some exceptions; for example, certain businesses that have already registered their name with the Canadian government don’t have to add French to their name. Some still choose to).
Langue de l’enseignement maternel, primaire et secondaire (Language of maternal, primary and secondary education) :
French is the language of all three of those. However, children who have at least one Canadian parent who received most of their schooling (primary or secondary) in English in Canada can have access to English schools (Canada clause). For higher education, cegeps and universities need to have a usage and quality policy on the French language.
Various provisions:
French and another language can be used side by side if a certain law doesn’t require the exclusive use of French. This affects the redaction of texts or documents, where French can be used with either one or multiple languages. However, French needs to be at least as EQUALLY visible as the other language(s).
Linguistic officialization:
Ministries and organisms related to the public administration can create committees to evaluate shortcomings when it comes to the use of certain terms. They can suggest the use of more appropriate terms or expressions, who then need to be suggested or normalized by the OQLF. Once that last part is done, those terms/expressions then become mandatory in the public administration.
(Skipping toponymy because this is getting long, but there’s basically a Commission that takes care of all the names of places and the Charter defines their competencies)
(Same for the francization of the administration and enterprises)
Conseil supérieur de la langue française (Superior Council of the French Language) :
The Charter defines their role and their composition. Their role is to advise the minister responsible for the French Language (it’s currently Jean-Francois Roberge, the previous minister of Education).
For sanctions, to quickly go over it: 600$ to 6000$ for physical people and between 1500$ and 20 000$ for moral people (double if they do it again).
And we’re done with the most technical part of this post! We still haven’t gone over Bill 96, but believe me, it’ll be way shorter than that. But we’re still not done with Bill 101, so let’s keep going.
Anglophone and Indigenous minorities have, of course, certain rights that are recognized by the Constitution. Therefore, those rights must be respected and that’s what the Charter does. For example:
- When laws are published in both French and English, both versions are equally valid.
- People can speak to the tribunal in English.
- Judgements can be made available in either French or English, if someone asks for a translation (depends on if the judgment was first released in French or English)
- The law doesn’t apply to Indigenous reserves, but to the local Indigenous language outside of it. That means that outside of the reserve, local Indigenous languages are submitted to the legislation, same as English or any language other than French.
Of course, ever since its adoption, the law was the subject of many controversies and invalidations by the Supreme Court of Canada. Therefore, the Quebec government was forced to change the law accordingly. Other times, the provincial government chose to change without being forced to (like with Bill 96). To go over them quickly:
Law 178: Superior Court of Quebec invalidates dispositions that mandates French as the sole language that can be used on displays. The decision is confirmed in 1988 by the Superior Court of Canada. Robert Bourassa (Quebec Liberal Party) is therefore forced to act and chooses to change the law so that French is still mandatory outside, but can be used alongside other languages inside, as long as it is predominant. He uses the derogation clause. Nobody is happy once again, for completely different reasons, and 3 ministers decide to resign a few days later.
Invalidation of article 73: Now, children from anywhere in Canada can now have access to English schools (before, it was only if their education had been mostly in English in Quebec). The Constitution of 1982 now made it a right for any Canadian to receive education in the minority language of the province. The requirements of the Charter still apply, but now, to a Canada-wide scale. That right is then added to the Charter with Law 86.
Law 86: Without being forced to, the government passes a law that ends the mandatory use of only French in commercial displays. Bilingual displays are authorized if French is visibly dominant. The law also makes sure that judicial services are offered in both French and English, which wasn’t the case before.
- Why it wasn’t the case: When the law was first adopted, it made it so that bills tabled at the National Assembly had to be written in French and trials had to be conducted in French, unless both parties agreed for it to be done in English. Camille Laurin (the father of the law), and the council of ministers knew that those provisions would go against the Constitution (the British North America Act), but that they wanted t o protest against the fact that only Quebec had to provide those services in both languages, as all the other provinces in English Canada were exempted (therefore, only English was fine, no French version was mandatory). The Supreme Court invalidated these articles, and thus, the law was changed.
The next important change is with Bill 96, but before we get to that, we`ve just got a few parts parts left.
Other Countries
Did you know? Other countries were inspired by Quebec’s language policy:
The Baltic countries; to protect their respective languages against Russian. Some complained about a one-way bilingualism, in which, for example, Lithuanians learnt Russian and Lithuanian, but Russians only learnt Russian because there wasn’t a need for them to learn Lithuanian. Mart Rannut, vice-doyen of research at the department of psychology at Tallinn University, in Estonia, has even said (about Bill 101), that it has << touched 1/6 of the planet >>.
Catalonia: The legislation in Quebec had a big impact during the sociopolitical debate about the protection of Catalan against castellan in Spain. Catalan was made mandatory in public function because of a law inspired by Law 101.
China: The country was inspired by the law when they wrote one of their decisions, whose goal was to promote standard mandarin.
Israel: English is perceived as a threat against Hebrew, although for now, the Quebec law has only influenced linguists and a few politicians.
Wales: Law 101 had a big impact in Wales too, but unfortunately, couldn’t be implemented the same way it was in Baltic countries, as Gaelic speakers are a minority in the UK. Colin H. Williams, a professor and researcher at the Gaelic department at Cardiff University, said that many lessons can be learnt from Quebec’s experience.
Porto Rico: A law adopted in 1991 made Spanish the only official language of this place. It was inspired by Law 101. It was repealed in 1993.
Did you expect China to be there? Me neither honestly. According to the same Tallinn researcher, many Soviet countries were inspired by Quebec’s law. However, I haven’t done much research about this, so I won’t go deeper into this (although it’s very interesting to learn about).
Before going further, I’d like to explain the role of an organization that is often mentioned in the media. The so-called ‘language police’, whose role I’ll explain. I’ll also talk about some of the limits they have, as well as a particular incident that many people keep bringing up.
The OQLF (Office québécois de la langue française) :
The OQLF was created in 1961, although it didn’t have as many responsibilities as it does now. Those were expanded in 1977, with the adoption of the Charter of the French language. Because, yes; the OQLF was there way before Law 101.
The organization has many responsibilities, including:
- Making sure the Charter of the French language is respected.
- Keeping an eye on the evolution of French in Quebec and giving a rapport to the minister at least every 5 years.
- Making sure that French is the language used at work, during communications, for trade and affairs. Taking the measures they deem necessary to make sure French is promoted.
- Must help define and elaborate francization programs as is foreseen in the law.
- Can assist and inform compagnies, organisms, and more about better words/terms they can use to make sure they stay up to date with the development of French in Québec.
- Can receive observations and suggestions about what could be done better to develop French and apply the law. Those can then be taken to the minster.
- Must establish the necessary research programs to the application of the law. Can conduct studies they deem necessary for those programs.
- Can conclude agreements and participate in projects with any person or organism.
- Can conclude agreements with a different government than the one in Québec, one of its ministries, and international organization or an organism that is linked to that government. That is possible as long as it follows the law in place in Québec.
While the OQLF’s more ‘active’ role is often the most highlighted, it’s far from the only one they have. And they don’t spend all of their time treating complaints either; finding more appropriate French words, following the evolution of French in the province, assisting compagnies and answering their questions and cooperating with different organizations is what they do the most often.
But since receiving, treating, and acting upon complaints is what they’re most known for, let’s address that.
Most years, the OQLF receives a few thousand complaints. Those complaints are sent by Quebecers who feel like their right to be served in French in Québec is affected. However, the OQLF doesn’t act upon all of these, and even then, most of the complaints they act upon are solved rather quickly. Most don’t make the news.
Many complaints are ignored and considered to be invalid. Others were already solved by the time the OQLF could intervene. Sometimes, the products were immediately taken off the shelf. Finally, sometimes, the complaints were made too late, and could not be treated.
For the fines, those don’t happen too often. For example, in 2006, they were only 127 fines that were given, between 250$ and 5000$.
All in all, there’s not really much ‘police’ in that. And that’s mostly the reality.
Some incidents did get out of hands of course (like the famous Pastagate incident, for which the OQLF admitted having been ‘overzealous’ and for which the head of the organization at the time, Louise Marchand, resigned), but it’s really not common. For most cases in which the complaint was appropriate, compagnies or people simply correct the mistake.
Now, for the part many were probably waiting for, the very, very controversial bill adopted in 2021…

Bill 96

I’m sure everyone (or at least, those who follow the news) remember the multiple debates that happened (and are still happening) about this law adopted around 2 years ago. Articles were written, protests were organized, Indigenous people weren’t happy; it was messy. Some misinformation was even spread around, like the idea that anglophones wouldn’t be able to receive medical services in English anymore (which, to be clear, isn’t true).
What is the truth? What are the lies? What should you be angry at? All the answers you might be seeking are here.
A mini disclaimer before we start this section: I am merely human, and therefore, have an opinion on this subject which I’ve researched as much as I could. Of course, I’ll give you all the facts so that you can then make a decision yourself, but there are some things I personally disagree with (or agree with) that might be more obvious than others. Anyway, let’s start.
What did Bill 96 include?
When it was first introduced, the bill provided for the creation of a French language commissioner (whose designation would have to be approved by 2/3 of the National Assembly) as well as for the creation of a ministry of the French language.
It amended the Charter to change and include certain things:
- Laws can still be adopted in both languages, but when there is a misunderstanding between both versions, the French version will prevail.
- All judgements given in English will have to be translated in French.
- The knowledge of a language other than French cannot be required during the nomination of a provincial judge, unless the justice minister deems it necessary.
- Regulations don’t have to be written in English anymore, because the requirement of bilingualism (of the British North America Act of 1897) didn’t include regulations.
- For schools, English cegeps now have a limit, and can only accept 17,5% of the entire Québécois student population. Non-anglophones students will also have to complete the French exam (mandatory in French cegeps) to receive their diplomas. The student quota doesn’t apply to universities.
- Enterprises that have between 25 and 49 employees will need to obtain a francization certificate, just like enterprises with more than 50 employees. Law 101 will also apply to federal enterprises.
- Bilingual municipalities have their bilingual status removed if their population isn’t mostly anglophone anymore. However, they can ask to maintain that status with a resolution. As of today, all 48 municipalities concerned with this part of the law have adopted such a resolution to keep their status.
- Civil status documents obtained in English in a different Canadian province must be translated. Before, only documents written in a language other than French and English were concerned (so, mostly documents from other countries)
- The preliminary of the Quebec Civil Code is modified to say that it is now interpreted in harmony with the Charter of the French language, and not only with the Quebec Charter of Human Rights and Freedoms.
- Modifies the Profession Code to say that an inability to maintain an appropriate knowledge of French constitutes a derogatory act to the dignity of someone’s profession.
- Modifies the Constitution of 1867 to add the recognition of the Québécois nation and French as its sole official language. Uses the derogatory clause.
- Makes it so that after 6 months, an immigrant will have to communicate with the government in French.
- Gives the power to inspectors in charge of the application of the law to penetrate, at any reasonable hour, in any place aside from a house, where an activity concerned by the law is happening.
Those are most of the changes included in Bill 96. However, the law still has some limits. For example:
- Article 133 of the Constitution of 1867 (concerning the bilingualism of Quebec and the Canadian parliament) cannot be modified without the authorization of the Canadian parliament. Therefore, the part that was added (French is the sole official language of Quebec), is technically not valid. However, I don’t think the federal government intervened as of now (or plans to), so it’s there.
- For article 530 of the criminal code, the protected right to be heard in common law doesn’t actually say that the judge must speak English or even just understand it (the stoppage Société des Acadien c. Association of Parents). However, later, with a different stoppage (R. c. Beaulac), it was declared that the tribunals have to be institutionally bilingual to make sure both official languages can be used. Since criminal law is under federal jurisdiction, Quebec’s attempt to create a unilingual judicial system could meet some obstacles. However, the use of the derogatory clause by the province complicates things.
- It is still a right to receive medical services in English. While Quebec could have attempted to eliminate that right, it didn’t. Same goes for 9-1-1 (fun fact: only Quebec and New-Brunswick are forced to give 9-1-1 services in the minority language of their province. None of the others do), even though Indigenous people and anglophones were worried about that.

Bill 96 certainly goes further than the previous version of Bill 101 did, and that has many people worried. I myself don’t completely agree with some of the changes here. But let’s not fall into misinformation, because that helps absolutely no one. Fear and panic are also emotions we should avoid acting upon, no matter if we agree or disagree with the law. And please, no Nazi comparisons; they did much, much worse and I think it’s clear to all (or at least, I hope it is) that the Quebec government is absolutely not on the verge of committing a mass genocide. Accusations like that will only make people go on the defensive and are an obstacle to dialogue. We’ll get nowhere, still be mad and frustrated, and continue the cycle for even longer.
It may sometimes look like this debate will never end, like francophones and anglophones are destined to forever disagree when it comes to language, but in the end, nothing is eternal. I’m sure we’ll get somewhere one day, even if that day is years away.
Anyway, that’ll be it for part 1! Stay tuned for part 2, where we’ll take a look at the different language laws that were once in place in other provinces: Ontario, Manitoba, British-Columbia, even the territories had some! I’ll also do my best to write about the current language laws in the other provinces and compare the situation of Franco-Albertans and Fransaskois (for example) with the situation of anglophones in Québec.

Sources:
- Wikipédia (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charte_de_la_langue_fran%C3%A7aise) for most of my information (the site is well-organized and I mostly followed their organization)
- OQLF website (https://www.oqlf.gouv.qc.ca/charte/changementslegislatifs/?gclid=CjwKCAjwrpOiBhBVEiwA_473dKae6mSlJbQPGLgRox_ACQLIs3VDA263wB5RiIMCgE4ubyVlAUOTchoCnZUQAvD_BwE) mostly concerns labour laws
- The Canadian Encyclopedia (https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/farticle/loi-101) bit of history and legal obstacles

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2023.06.03 02:09 rgbohning Arkansas opens Fayetteville Regional with 13-6 win over Santa Clara

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2023.06.03 02:02 AutoModerator [I HAVE] Iman Gadzhi Agency Navigator FULL updated course And 3,000+ MORE FREE courses

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2023.06.03 01:56 aphyxi Has anybody watched Santa Clara Vanguard's 1988/89 DCI Phantom of the Opera show?

IF YOU HAVEN'T, YOU SHOULD!!! I don't know how many of you are into marching bands/drum corps but this is where my two worlds collide, so: has anybody seen the show? In-person? On Youtube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RV6AaSqUXiQ&ab_channel=SCV88CYMS AND https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IlI_rC2DWg&ab_channel=MEAWMEAW)? They did Phantom 2 years in a row, and both are absolutely glorious!!! Let me know your opinions! Both shows are personally some of my favorites in DCI history, as both a DCI fan and a Phantom lover.

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2023.06.03 01:56 Dismal-Jellyfish ‘Shadow Banks’ Account for Half of the World’s Assets—and Pose Growing Risks: 'no one seems to have a firm handle on the risks that nonbank financial entities could pose if numerous trades and investments sour.'

‘Shadow Banks’ Account for Half of the World’s Assets—and Pose Growing Risks: 'no one seems to have a firm handle on the risks that nonbank financial entities could pose if numerous trades and investments sour.'

Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/shadow-banks-account-for-half-of-the-worlds-assetsand-pose-growing-risks-8f4b5961

The sudden failure this year of three sizable American banks demonstrated one way in which the financial system can “break” as the Federal Reserve and other central banks press a campaign to normalize interest rates.
There could be others.
Risk-minded regulators, policy makers, and investors are eyeing the huge but nebulous world of largely unregulated nonbank financial intermediaries, known colloquially as shadow banks, as a potential locus of future problems. It includes sovereign-wealth funds, insurers, pension funds, hedge funds, financial-technology firms, financial clearing houses, mutual funds, and fast-growing entities such as money-market funds and private credit funds.

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The nonbank financial system now controls $239 trillion, or almost half of the world’s financial assets, according to the Financial Stability Board. That’s up from 42% in 2008, and has doubled since the 2008-09 financial crisis. Postcrisis regulations helped shore up the nation’s biggest banks, but the restrictions that were imposed, coupled with years of ultralow interest rates, fueled the explosive growth of nonbank finance.

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To be sure, these financial intermediaries play an important role in the economy, lending to many businesses too small or indebted to tap institutional markets. Moreover, while talk is rife on Wall Street about problems brewing in shadow banking, few have surfaced since the Fed began tightening monetary policy in the first quarter of 2022. To the contrary, disruptions caused by rising interest rates have been most evident so far in the regulated banking sector. And any turmoil in the nonbank arena could prove relatively benign, especially if the economy avoids a severe recession.
Yet, no one seems to have a firm handle on the risks that nonbank financial entities could pose if numerous trades and investments sour. Nor is there a detailed understanding of the connections among nonbank entities, or their links to the regulated banking system.
To date, this system hasn’t been tested, at this scale, for a wave of credit losses and defaults that could stem from higher rates and a weakening economy. History suggests caution: Shadow banking was at the epicenter of the financial crisis, as nontraditional financial institutions turned subprime mortgages into complex securities sold to banks and investors, often using high levels of leverage. As homeowners defaulted, these products lost value, and the damage cascaded through the financial system.
While nonbank finance looks a lot different today, as do the potential risks, it remains a source of concern. Some policy makers and bankers use the shadow-bank moniker to refer to that segment of the nonbank universe considered most likely to trigger the sorts of liquidity-draining events that sparked prior financial contagion. The Institute of International Finance ballparks such exposure at about 14% of nonbank financial assets. But the links remain cloudy between the riskier elements of shadow banking, a term that rankles many nonbank entities, and the more resilient world of market-based finance.
“The enormous size and high leverage levels of the nonbank financial-institutions sector, along with the more lax reporting and regulatory standards applied to this sector relative to banks make it a potential tinderbox,” says Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University and a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, who formerly worked at the International Monetary Fund.
Worried economists and financial analysts have been urging regulators to gain a better understanding of nonbank financial intermediaries because they see telltale signs of potential trouble, including illiquid assets, increasing leverage, lack of transparency, and rapid growth.
The nonbank universe is “everyone’s obvious candidate” for more breaks, says Simon Johnson, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a former director of research at the IMF, who has spent much of his career working to prevent economic crises.
There are no direct parallels to the asset mismatches and bank runs that took down Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank earlier this year. In part, that’s because the pension funds, insurers, and endowments of the nonbank world tend to hold assets for decades through funds that lock up their money for five to seven years. Also, big players such as private credit funds tend to use far less leverage than banks.
Still, there are indications that inflation and the sharp rise in rates may be causing strains in some parts of the nonbank system. High interest rates have sapped demand for new mortgages, for instance, hurting nonbank lenders. Liquidity in parts of the bond market, such as emerging market debt and high-yield, is at the lowest levels since the Covid pandemic. And cash flow at some companies financed by private credit is shrinking due to inflation, a slowing economy, and higher debt payments.
One thing is clear: What happens in one corner of this sprawling world doesn’t stay there. Consider the collapse of the hedge fund Archegos Capital Management in 2021. Its losses on concentrated bets on blue-chip stocks triggered a margin call that led to the sale of about $20 billion of assets. That left big banks exposed to the fund, including Nomura and UBS, with billions of dollars in losses.
“Risks came back to banks’ balance sheets from the back door,” says Fabio Massimo Natalucci, deputy director of monetary and capital markets development at the International Monetary Fund and co-author of its global financial-stability report.
Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman said in a speech this spring that losses related to riskier activities pushed out of the banking system could come back to haunt banks through activities such as the banks’ extension of credit to nonbank lenders. According to the Fed, bank lending to nonbank financial intermediaries totaled $2 trillion in commitments at the end of 2022, a level the Fed described as high.

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While many nonbank entities are regulated in some way, no regulator has attempted to assess the overall financial stability of the nonbank world. The Financial Stability Oversight Council, or FSOC, is now seeking comments on designating some nonbank institutions as systemic and subjecting some to Federal Reserve supervision. That would reverse some of the changes made during the last administration.
A look at three types of nonbank financial intermediaries—private-credit providers, open-end bond funds, and nonbank mortgage lenders—offers a window into the prevailing concerns about shadow banking, and suggests how conditions could unravel in this sector in ways that roil the economy and the markets.

Private Credit

Rapid growth in the world of finance tends to draw attention, and few business segments have grown since the financial crisis as much as private credit. Private-credit providers typically lend directly to midsize, privately owned businesses that generate from $10 million to $1 billion of revenue and can’t get funding in the institutional market.

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As banks retreated after the crisis and each minicrisis that followed, these financial intermediaries stepped in. Private-credit assets have mushroomed to nearly $1.5 trillion from $230 billion in 2008**,** putting the private-credit market in the league of the leveraged-loan and high-yield markets.
Drawn by high yields, attractive returns, and diversification opportunities, investors have poured money into private-credit funds. Insurers have doubled their allocation to these pools of largely illiquid assets over the past decade, while pension funds have more than doubled their allocation to alternative investments, including private credit, since 2006.
The Fed said in its financial stability report, published in May, that the risk to financial stability from private-credit funds appears limited. It noted that the funds don’t use much leverage, are held by institutional investors, and have long lockup periods, limiting the risk of runs. But the Fed also acknowledged that it had little visibility into loan portfolios, including the traits of borrowers, the nature of deal terms, and default risks.
Some observers are concerned about the connections between private lending and other nonbank activities, as well as lenders’ links to the banking sector. “Wall Street says they aren’t going to lend to subprime borrowers, but they lend to funds that lend to them,” says Ana Arsov, who oversees private-credit research at Moody’s.
There is no public view of banks’ total exposure to private credit, Arsov says. Given the scale of the business and limited visibility into the risks, analysts worry that any widespread deterioration of asset quality could ripple through other parts of the financial world before regulators could act.
Business development companies, some of which are publicly traded, offer some insight through disclosure documents into this $250 billion market. “Most managers that have both BDCs and institutional structures share deals across their platform, providing insight into the types of credits in their portfolios,” says Dwight Scott, global head of Blackstone Credit.
Moody’s sees increasing challenges for some BDCs over the next 12 to 18 months as the economy slows and companies grapple with higher borrowing costs, inflation, and market volatility. Although liquidity looks adequate for the next 12 months, loan maturities for portfolio companies will accelerate after that. If rates are still high and the economy is slumping, that could hamper the prospects for further borrowing. Similarly, lenders could become more conservative.
Blackstone Private Credit fund, or BCRED, the biggest private-credit fund, said late last year that it had hit its 5% quarterly investor-redemption limit. While Blackstone had no trouble meeting redemptions, and has reported that redemption requests fell in this year’s first quarter, Arsov worries about how smaller players would handle a similar situation. The industry’s efforts to court retail investors, she says, could increase the possibility that risks in private credit seep into broader financial markets, potentially by creating confidence issues.
What could trigger problems in the broader private-credit universe? One concern is a potential wave of struggling borrowers larger than the anticipated 5% to 6%. Arsov says expectations may be too rosy, based on the low default rate during the pandemic, when the Fed stepped in with trillions of dollars in stimulus. With the Fed now raising rates to curb inflation and trimming its balance sheet, such assistance is unlikely to be repeated.
Leverage metrics also have deteriorated, and covenant protections have weakened as the growth in private credit has increased competition for deals. Many have been concentrated in software, business services, and healthcare, in companies backed by private-equity funds. Given the benign interest-rate and economic backdrop of recent years, many private-equity investors were willing to pay higher multiples of enterprise value for companies with sustainable revenue, which allowed them to take on more leverage, says Richard Miller, head of private credit at TCW.
“Our markets stopped focusing on debt to Ebitda [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization], the longstanding gauge of risk, and looked at loan to value,” Miller says. “That was fine as long as enterprise values didn’t contract and the [interest] rate on that elevated debt didn’t go up. We have had a change in both.”
Now, some of these companies are generating less cash flow, which affects their ability to cover interest payments. While leverage isn’t as high as during the financial crisis, limiting potential systemic risk, Miller sees the risks today transferred to the individual borrower, and worries about the prospect of some borrowers running out of money.
A shift in the market might weed out weaker private-credit upstarts. But a potential combination of rising defaults, elevated interest rates, and flagging investor appetite for private credit could exacerbate a downturn, albeit in slow motion, given the nature of borrowing.
Not surprisingly, industry leaders are more upbeat. “People conflate default with losses,” says Blackstone’s Scott. But much of direct lending involves senior secured debt, he notes, which should minimize actual losses and enable lenders to help businesses through the challenges.
“Rather than increasing risk to the markets, private-credit asset managers are typically a stabilizing force, given the ability to invest patiently and opportunistically, and with little to no use of leverage, when banks and other traditional market participants either can’t or won’t,” says Michael Arougheti, chief executive of Ares Management, one of the largest alternative-asset managers.

https://preview.redd.it/8kxrl8eexo3b1.png?width=396&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0fc605506d01955897874827fecff078f2e73ba

Bond Funds

Unlike private-credit funds, which lock up investors’ money for a set period, most mutual funds allow investors to buy and sell whenever they want, offering daily liquidity. But that could turn problematic for bond funds under certain conditions, as some corporate bonds change hands only once a month—and less frequently in times of stress. If credit losses pile up or markets become stressed, some policy makers fear that bond funds could face demands to liquidate holdings at fire-sale prices, as investors scramble to sell funds with assets that have become illiquid.
Liquidity in bond markets dried up in the early days of the pandemic as investors scrambled for cash and some bond funds sold assets to meet redemptions. That set off a further frenzy as investors tried to unload assets before they became more illiquid. The selling pressure eventually forced the Fed to intervene and offer to buy corporate bonds for the first time ever to keep credit flowing. Hoping to minimize the damage from another fire sale, policy makers are looking to develop new rules, including on fund pricing.
The Investment Company Institute, which represents the mutual fund industry, has pushed back against this effort, arguing it is based on an incorrect view of the role that bond funds played in 2020. Citing its own research, the ICI says bond sales didn’t spark the Treasury market dysfunction that disrupted the flow of credit, but started only after markets began seizing up and, at that, represented a fraction of the selling.
The ICI notes that concerns about fire sales during periods of market stress aren’t unique to the mutual fund structure.
Bond funds have seen net inflows of $1.74 trillion since 2013. Global fixed-income funds, a subset of the sector, have crowded into some of the same corners of the market in the past two years. The IMF has raised alarms about that, citing fears of a stampede out of certain assets if a single fund runs into trouble.

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Bid/ask spreads, a common gauge of a market’s liquidity, have widened in areas such as high-yield and emerging market debt to levels last seen in the spring of 2020, according to the IMF.
Mara Dobrescu, director of fixed-income strategies for Morningstar’s manager-research group, also sees increasing vulnerabilities, but notes that most funds are equipped to handle stresses and that not many bond funds have had to institute limits on redemptions.
Warning SignThe liquidity risk in high-yield bond funds increased in 2022 as bid-ask spreads widened.Portfolio-level bid-ask spread across fundsSource: International Monetary Fund

https://preview.redd.it/kxm1xjgrxo3b1.png?width=1016&format=png&auto=webp&s=eea6c6ccea84a93126edda215efa99bb98300c2e

Nonbank Mortgage Lenders

The mortgage market has seen dramatic changes in the years since the global financial crisis. The business of originating and servicing loans has migrated steadily away from banks, with nonbank lenders accounting for more than two-thirds of all originations. Rocket Cos. ’ [ticker: RKT] Rocket Mortgage unit and UWM Holdings ’ [UWMC] United Wholesale Mortgage top the list of the biggest lenders.
Neither company responded to Barron’s requests for comment.
Housing finance is raising flags again, not so much for risky lending practices as in 2008, but because of the business models of these nonbank lenders, which don’t have to hold as much capital as banks. With people buying fewer houses, mortgage originations are down 60% in the past two years, raising concerns that potential losses will eat into these businesses’ slim capital cushion and raise leverage levels.

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Nancy Wallace, a finance and real estate professor at the University of California, Berkeley Haas School of Business, has been warning for years about these nonbank lenders’ business model. She fears that a rise in defaults could lead to disruptions in the mortgage and housing markets.
One concern is the companies’ reliance on short-term funding through warehouse lines of credit from banks. Those presumably could be pulled during periods of market stress, or if the borrowers’ financial health were to deteriorate.
In this year’s first quarter, delinquency rates were only 3.6%, the lowest level for any first quarter since the Mortgage Bankers Association started tracking them in 1979. A sharp rise in delinquencies, however, could bring added pain, as the companies’ servicing businesses, which collect monthly payments from borrowers and funnel them to investors including banks, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, would need to advance the money.
On its own, analysts don’t see the nonbank mortgage-lending industry triggering a financial crisis, although distress throughout the industry could diminish confidence in other nonbank lenders. In a worst-case scenario, credit could dry up for riskier borrowers, hitting home prices and sapping mortgage demand.
Peter Mills, senior vice president of residential policy for the Mortgage Bankers Association, has pushed back on recent regulatory efforts aimed at designating nonbank lenders as systemic, noting that the framework under consideration doesn’t include a cost/benefit analysis or an assessment of the probability that an entity could default.
Plus, he doesn’t see a financial-transmission risk from the industry, which is working on tools to mitigate strains in the event of delinquencies. “It’s less a financial earthquake and more of an operational challenge,” he says.
That may prove to be the case throughout the nonbank financial sector as interest rates normalize and the era of free money ends. Plenty of things might bend without breaking in this vast and opaque world. Just the same, it pays to be vigilant.

TLDRS:

Shorter Version:

The nonbank financial intermediaries, or "shadow banks," controlling almost half of the world’s financial assets, are being watched closely as central banks work towards normalizing interest rates.
Though few problems have been noted since the Fed's monetary policy tightening in 2022, there are concerns about the risk these nonbank entities could pose if numerous investments fail, especially given the lack of understanding about their interconnections.
Rising interest rates and inflation may be causing strain in the nonbank system, with decreased demand for new mortgages and reduced liquidity in some bond markets.
The collapse of Archegos Capital Management in 2021 highlighted the risk of problems in one area of the nonbank system impacting others, prompting calls for regulators to improve understanding of nonbank financial intermediaries.
Despite private credit growth, concerns persist due to limited visibility into these funds' loan portfolios and connections between private lending and other nonbank activities, as well as links to the banking sector.
Bond funds, with their daily liquidity, could face challenges in times of stress when certain corporate bonds are infrequently traded, potentially leading to liquidation at reduced prices.
The shift from banks to nonbank lenders in the mortgage market, combined with the latter's reliance on short-term funding from banks, has raised concerns, especially in the event of a sharp rise in delinquencies.

Longer Version:

As the Federal Reserve and other central banks work towards normalizing interest rates, the largely unregulated nonbank financial intermediaries, also known as shadow banks, are being closely watched due to their potential to cause future financial issues.
- These entities, which include everything from sovereign-wealth funds to financial-technology firms, currently control $239 trillion, almost half of the world’s financial assets, an increase from 42% in 2008.
These intermediaries serve a crucial role in the economy, lending to businesses that are too small or too indebted to tap into institutional markets.
- Despite concerns, few issues have emerged in the shadow banking sector since the Fed began tightening monetary policy in 2022.
- However, it's unclear what risks these nonbank entities could pose if numerous investments go sour, especially considering the lack of detailed understanding about their connections among themselves and to the regulated banking system.
The shadow banking system hasn't been tested on this scale against a potential wave of credit losses and defaults that could result from higher rates and a weakening economy.
- The sector, with its size, high leverage levels, and lax reporting and regulatory standards, could potentially become a "tinderbox" according to some economists.
There are indications that rising interest rates and inflation may be causing some strain in the nonbank system.
- High rates have reduced demand for new mortgages, affecting nonbank lenders. Also, liquidity in some bond markets is at the lowest levels since the COVID pandemic.
Still, there have been instances where problems in one part of the nonbank system have impacted others. The collapse of the hedge fund Archegos Capital Management in 2021, for example, resulted in significant losses for big banks exposed to the fund (and those continue as that bag is passed around...).
- Given these risks, regulators are being urged to gain a better understanding of nonbank financial intermediaries.
Private credit has grown exponentially since the 2008 financial crisis, ballooning from $230 billion to almost $1.5 trillion.
- This sector lends directly to midsize businesses that can't obtain funding in the institutional market.
- Investors are attracted to private credit due to high yields, returns, and diversification opportunities.
The Federal Reserve stated in a recent report that risks to financial stability from private-credit funds seem limited because these funds don't use much leverage, have long lockup periods, and are held by institutional investors.
- However, there's limited visibility into these funds' loan portfolios, including borrower characteristics, deal terms, and default risks.
Concerns arise from connections between private lending and other nonbank activities, as well as links to the banking sector.
- The lack of public view into banks' total exposure to private credit is a cause for concern for some analysts who worry that asset quality deterioration could impact other parts of the financial world before regulators can intervene.
A potential wave of struggling borrowers larger than the anticipated 5-6% could trigger problems in the broader private credit universe.
- Leverage metrics have also worsened, and covenant protections have weakened as competition for deals has grown.
  - The market's focus has shifted from debt to EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to loan to value, which could lead to some borrowers running out of money.
There is concern that a potential combination of rising defaults, high interest rates, and waning investor appetite for private credit could exacerbate a downturn.
Most mutual funds offer daily liquidity, allowing investors to buy and sell whenever they wish.
- However, this could be an issue for bond funds in certain conditions, as some corporate bonds are traded only once a month and even less often during stressful times.
- If credit losses accumulate or markets become stressed, bond funds could face pressure to liquidate holdings at reduced prices as investors rush to sell funds with illiquid assets.
Bond funds have experienced net inflows of $1.74 trillion since 2013, with global fixed-income funds investing heavily in certain market areas in the last two years.
- The IMF has expressed concerns about this, noting that if a single fund encounters issues, it could lead to a rush out of certain assets.
- Liquidity risks in high-yield bond funds have increased in 2022, with bid-ask spreads, a measure of a market’s liquidity, widening.
Since the global financial crisis, the mortgage market has undergone significant changes, with nonbank lenders now accounting for over two-thirds of all originations.
- While the shift away from banks isn't due to risky lending as in 2008, concerns have been raised about the business models of nonbank lenders.
- These lenders don't need to hold as much capital as banks, and with a 60% decline in mortgage originations in the past two years due to decreased house purchases, potential losses could deplete their modest capital buffer and increase leverage levels.
One concern is the nonbank lenders' reliance on short-term funding via warehouse lines of credit from banks, which could be withdrawn during market stress or if the borrowers' financial condition worsens.
- Although delinquency rates were just 3.6% in Q1 of this year, a sharp increase could cause issues, as these companies' servicing businesses would have to advance the money.

https://preview.redd.it/nhube69c0p3b1.png?width=610&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ed6c7f420ff77cac94b7dc02ef6f685b54c497a

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2023.06.03 01:25 Icy-Onion-3911 Santa Clara

I applied in October and just heard back today that i’ve been waitlisted. Absolutely ridiculous that I just heard back, thank god I put a deposit down some where else and didn’t wait.

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2023.06.03 01:14 trick96 [Post Game Thread] Fayetteville Regional Game 1: #3 Arkansas (42-16) defeats Santa Clara (35-19) 13-6 to open the regional.

Box Score
DVH, McEntire, Josenberger press conference
Highlights

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2023.06.03 01:02 AutoModerator [I HAVE] Iman Gadzhi Agency Navigator FULL updated course And 3,000+ MORE FREE courses

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2023.06.03 00:21 28Loki Fun neverending flower season ride.

Fun loop in Santa Clarita, California. Up Santa Clara Truck Trail and down Indian Canyon fire road.

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2023.06.03 00:15 Affectionate-Bee5403 [TOMT] Creepy Christmas video from the early 2010s

It’s been a while since i even thought about this but i’ll do my best to say what i remember. It was around 2010-2014 and I had just got a tablet for Christmas, so the first thing i do is go on youtube and the first video i see has this thumbnail of a kid sleeping in his room and you can see a window with a snowy outside right behind his bed. I click on the video and it shows a kid sleeping while a santa is seen on the outside of the window. This is where my memory gets foggy, The video then got very grotesque. I remember seeing a weird reindeer creature or something sneaking in his room, and it proceeds to gouge the kids eyes out. That’s all i can remember for now, i was young when i had seen it and i know the video was popular i just cant remember the name. Thanks.

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2023.06.03 00:06 lautaromassimino Fixing Netflix "Elite" (season 4-6). [English].

Seasons 1, 2 & 3's rewrite: https://www.reddit.com/EliteNetflix/comments/13yr0za/fixing_netflix_elite_season_13_english/
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S4. Attempted assassination of Rebeka Bermujo Ávalos: “A very strict principal and four new students arrive at Las Encinas who attack with love entanglements, serious rumors and a mystery that has just come out of the oven”.
Season 4 Characters List:

Samuel García Dominguez.
Guzmán Nunier Osuna.
Valerio Montesinos Rojas.
Rebeka Parilla.
Cayetana Grajera Pando.
Christian Varela Expósito (recurrent).
Nadia Shanaa (guest).
Felipe Rosón Caleruega.
Patrick Blanco Benavent.
Ariadna Blanco Benavent.
Mencía Blanco Benavent.
Benjamín Blanco.
Armando de la Ossa.

This season is probably going to be another one of the longest in terms of changes, as I feel like it was the worst of the six we've had so far, which is a huge mistake given all the big departues we've had in S3. The success of this season was something important because it meant the interest of the old fans for future seasons.
The mistake of this season, I feel, was using the arrival of the new cast to completely divert the focus of attention from what had been the plot of the story (Marina's murder, which led to Polo's murder). The story of this season should have followed the consequences of Polo's death for our characters, the weight of the pact of silence regarding Lu, and the non-hypersexualized harmony that the first three seasons had between his characters.
In this sense, it would make both this season and T5 keep the same vibes that they presented to us for season 6, first of all, lowering the morbidity and unnecessary sex scenes that we had since this season, creating more cohesion in the "individuality ” of the student uniforms, and creating an environment of more togetherness between characters, rather than many separate stories coming together at the end.
In addition, from this season several things about the school itself raised in previous seasons seem to have been forgotten just like that:

Las Encinas is a bilingual school, but we never see another teacher speaking English (French in the English dubbing) again.
The school competition with the Ivy League prize that Nadia and Lu compete for during the first three seasons is not mentioned again, when it is supposed to be something that is done every single year.
In addition, from this season almost all the scenes are located almost exclusively inside the school, and we see very little about outdoor scenes, or the private lives of the characters. This is also a serious mistake, since that was what best allowed us to know each other's backgrounds, and create empathy with them.

Season 4 Scoop:
Ari, Patrick and Mencía:

We would find out that they are adopted children of Benjamin: they introduce us to their family in the midst of an experimentation of great anguish, why not add another factor? Also, I feel like it works because none of them look much alike physically, nor do they seem to fully connect with each other (we were led to believe that Patrick and Ari were twins, when their relationship is more toxic than many Elite romantic couples).
The three of them would enter the third year, that is, a course below the one that Samuel & company are repeating (making Patrick and Ari two years younger than them, and Mencía three, since they originally tell us that she is one year ahead, together to his siblings).

Benjamín Blanco: The father of the new trio, and the new principal of Las Encinas, after Azucena's dismissal. In the middle of the season, we find out that he is actually Polo's uncle (his late wife was Begoña Benavent's sister). The compound last name of his children is Blanco Benavent, instead of Blanco Commerford.

Benjamín would have come to Madrid to help his sister-in-law regarding her son's trial, and to try to obtain information about this, by infiltrating the school, since apparently, despite Christian's guilty plea, there does not seem to have been direct evidence implicating him as the killer, beyond the romantic bond the two shared, so police say it's quite possible he'll be released for lack of evidence.
They tell us that Benjamin asked his three children for "help" to try to find out what really happened with Polo. However, Ari is the only one who accepted his request for help. Patrick and Mencía try to act as if that doesn't happen. Neither of the three mentions that Polo was their cousin.
This means that Benjamin and Ari would act as the main antagonists of the season, with the other two siblings being indirect antagonists.

Felipe Rosón Caleruega:

Felipe is Carla's (almost unknown) younger brother whom we would have finally met briefly during her graduation the previous season. Apparently, he had spent all those years attending a sister private school of Las Encinas located in Argentina, called Las Cumbres, and when we got to know him properly this season we would discover that it was not his idea to return to live in Madrid, but rather a decision made by his parents. We would later learn that he had actually been expelled from his last school, and that there is something about his past in England that he is trying to keep secret.
Between the middle of the season it's revealed that Felipe's "dark past" is based on his having anger management problems: a video is revealed in which he is seen together with a group of students attacking another boy. They tell us that there is a heavy complaint against him, and the case is still on trial, and only thanks to the influence of his parents was he able to avoid being arrested.
It's revealed that he's bisexual, and we're shown that he starts having some kind of secret crush on Patrick, both of them having this whole homoerotic friendship thing.
This character would become related to the second main plot of this season, which in the future would become the main plot for later seasons:

⠀⠀⠀ → We know that his father, Teodoro Rosón, after the end of Season 3 became the sole owner of the old company that he co-directed with Ventura Nunier (Guzmán's father) who was arrested at the end of S1 for embezzlement towards the School of San Esteban (the school from which Samu, Nadia and Christian received scholarships at the beginning of S1, after its collapse).
⠀⠀⠀ → We now learn that Teodoro plans to rebuild a Public School again on top of the ruins of San Esteban, this time by "legal means" to avoid the same fate as Ventura, but still solely for the economic purposes that would result from such construction, and a new scholarship program that this new school would have with Las Encinas.
⠀⠀⠀ → During the next season, the construction of this new institution would have finished, and we would have new scholarship recipients in Las Encinas, coming from this new school. This would be part of the "reboot" that the next generation would mean for Elite.

Felipe's character would be a direct reinvention of Philippe von Triesenberg's character, which would mean that said character is completely removed from the series script.
The reason behind his origin as Carla's younger brother arises to create a kind of instant empathy with him, based on his connection with whom was one of our queens for three years.

Rebeka (not Ari) is the main victim of the season:

One of the biggest misses of the season was making one of the new guys the victim; especially Ari, who among the three, was the one that generated the least empathy in the public. Without changing the original story too much, seeing from the first episode that Rebeka's life is in danger would have aroused much more interest among the entire audience.
As originally, Rebeka would end up in the hospital because of Armando, after having found out what Mencía was going through all season, and having confronted him to defend her. It's the same story that Ari had, but in a much more interesting and functional way.

Love triangle Samuel/Ari/Guzmán: It never happens.

It was a pretty dire plot that only increased the public's hatred towards Ari for having separated Nadia and Guzmán, and for being the reason for the loss of all the development that Guzmán and Samu's relationship had had for three seasons.
Instead, only Samuel remains her love interest, setting up that possible future "fatheson" connection between him and Benjamin.
Guzmán, for his side, would continue to have a long-distance love relationship with Nadia through video calls, and towards the end of the season, she surprises him with a visit to Madrid.

⠀⠀⠀ → Samuel and Ari's relationship would not be there just as one more of the season, but would serve as an element for the plot: Ari would have approached Samuel after learning that he was Christian's close friend (the accused in Polo's murder) to try to obtain information. However, her feelings towards him would become true over the course of the season, thus seeing a kind of development in her character, which would allow the public to empathize with her.
Guzmán & Mencía: Both become close friends, based on how much Guzmán would see Marina in Mencía [For those who didn't know, Mencía was written as a reformulation of Marina's character, adapted to the needs of the new environment with this "new gen"].
As mentioned before, Philippe's character is eliminated as a new character: his plot was something very delicate that I think was not handled well, and in the future it would be remedied with the entry and development of Isadora's story. With Philippe gone, Cayetana's as his love interest is eliminated.

After everything that happened with Polo the previous season, Cayetana is at a point in her life where she is not capable of being in another relationship. Her plot remains only in the way that she wants to change her future and focus on her design career, perhaps having aftermath of everything that happened with Polo, making her start having anxiety attacks (but treating the subject delicately, with her beginning to see a specialist by Rebbe's obligation).
We would see how Caye tries to seek support from Valerio, because of "Polo's issue" and the connection that Valerio also had with him, but she is frustrated when she realizes that Valerio seems to have coped with all this issue through the use of drugs. Another possible plot for her would be her attempt to help him (parallels to her original attempt to help Philippe).
Cayetana would be an easy second target for Ari, in her attempt to find information about Polo for her father. However, she would not achieve much due to the gap between them throughout the season.

Patrick + Valerio:

"Replacement" for Ander-Patrick-Omar's idea, without the drama and toxicity that this trio represented. Ander and Omar are gone. Valerio and Patrick? Both are wild partiers with drug-abusing tendencies. Let's match them up and watch them explode and burn, because that would be so much funny.
Later it could be revealed (or not) that Patrick would have approached Valerio at Ari's request, to try to obtain some information regarding Polo's case, at the insistence of their father.

Christian subplot:

Following the story line proposed at the end of T3, Christian would be in prison for a large part of this fourth season, whether it was due to a nefarious action by the justice system, or by his own plea to defend Lu and "pay" for his silence regarding Marina's death. The scenes with him are based on visits given to him by Samuel, or even perhaps Guzmán, in prison.
His permanence this season would be used to generate tension for the public, especially since (as mentioned at the beginning), the police would end up releasing him, due to lack of evidence against him. Let's say they take his statement as a result of the alcohol he drank at the party.
It is his potential (and definitive) release from prison, which causes the arrival of the Benjamins in Madrid, with Benjamin trying to seek justice for the family of his dead wife.

Valerio's possible death?:

Yes, it would be something tragic. And I'm trying to avoid this whole "one character death per season" thing. But (in a way) it's something that might make sense: Valerio dies of an overdose, "completing circle" in his drug addiction plot, but not forcing murder into the season.
Yet at the same time it might seem like too much for audiences (since, remember, we would have waited all season to see whether or not we would eventually lose Rebekah, and whether or not Christian would finally get out of prison. Keep them only to lose him, it could be a little too much).
Whether or not he died, Valerio would leave the school at the end of this season (another viable option for his departure could be, perhaps, by Patrick's action after Valerio's possible overdose, using Benjamin's influence to get him help at a clinic, similar to Christian's original ending, but this time out of Patrick's honest concern for Valerio, and not out of wanting to "get him out of his way").

Armando's fate:

HE IS NOT KILLED BY GUZMÁN. Seriously, how did the writers come up with the idea that the character we met SEEKING JUSTICE FOR THE CRIME AGAINST HIS SISTER would become the new criminal face, not facing the consequences and ending his story with him running away to avoid charges? Just... no!!
Armando is imprisoned: During the last episode we see Mencía crying in the hospital, blaming herself for the possibility of losing Rebe because of her. She finally comes clean; Not with her father, not with Ari, not with Patrick... but with Guzmán. Guzmán is the only person she trusts enough to admit the truth about Armando. Just at that moment, Rebekah wakes up. The rest is simply a competent action on the part of justice.

Guzmán drops out of school: At the end of the season, we see how he decides to join Nadia in the US.

It's reveal that he feels guilty for getting away from everyone, especially because of what he has just discovered about Mencía. Her “brotherly instinct” tells him that he must stay to protect her, but in the end they show us a scene of both saying goodbye to each other in peace, and Mencía crying, thanking him for having put Armando in jail.
There would be a farewell scene between him and Samuel, closing their plot as "brothers".

Outcome of Ari-Samuel Subplot, linked to Polo:

At some point near the season finale, Samuel would learn of Ari's and her family's connection to Polo's family, and the real reasons she had reached out to him. He would break up with her right then.
Ari finally confesses the rest of the story, filling in the puzzle pieces that Samuel was missing. He claims that it hadn't all been fake, not for her: she had really fallen for him.
As a possible redemption ending for the character, Ari vows not to tell her father about the truth after Polo's death, guided by the love she had come to feel for Samuel.

^\***************************************************************************************************************************)
T5. Murder of Samuel Garcia Dominguez: "Another semester begins in Las Encinas that brings new love triangles, new students, new rules... and a new crime that leaves everyone baffled".
Season 5 Characters List:

Samuel García Dominguez.
Rebeka Parilla.
Cayetana Grajera Pando.
Felipe Rosón Caleruega.
Patrick Blanco Benavent.
Ariadna Blanco Benavent.
Mencía Blanco Benavent.
Isadora Artiñán.
Iván Carvalho.
Cruz Carvalho.
Benjamín Blanco.

Isadora & Iván's arrival: Elite timeline is confusing because Season 1 is supposed to pertain to an individual school year. Seasons 2 and 3 belong to two semesters of the same year, just like seasons 4 and 5. This would mean that Isadora and Iván would be entering Las Encinas in the middle of the semester, without any explanation. We could remedy this by giving him a simple explanation that would, incidentally, unite the two of them like the best friends T6 would have us believe they are, when we've barely seen too many interactions between them:

Isa and Iván are exchange students: they both already knew each other, since they came from the very same private school in Argentina as Felipe.
They enter the same course as Patrick, Ari, Mencía and Felipe, that is: they are also two years younger than Samuel & Co.

Patrick/Ari/Ivan triangle: It never happens.

Let's stop poisoning the Blancos so much. Enough with the whole Ivan/Patrick/Cruz thing.

Love triangle, Patrick-Felipe-Iván:

Created to compensate for the cuts I made in season 4 with AndePatrick/Omar, with Samuel/Ari/Guzmán, and this season, with Patrick/Ari/Iván. The three of them would have a possible temporary dynamic, initiated by Patrick despite the fact that Ivan and Felipe were in the closet at the time.

We would be introduced, in a secondary way, to some of the new characters of season 6 (in a similar way to how S6 gave us a first introduction to Sonia, a character signed as main for T7). Among them:

Bilal, a student belonging to the new public school built by Teo Rosón on the foundations of the old San Esteban.
Dídac, being seen close to Javier, as one of the JavieHugo/Alex group. He does not participate in the attack on Isadora at the end of the season.
Nico, having already transitioned, but still not getting the document from him officially identifying him as a man. It is said that his d-name is Nicole (although everyone already calls him Nico). We saw one or two scenes of him close to Isadora and Mencía, before his official presentation in T6.
Rocío may be another of the people close to the girls, perhaps as a new waitress at the Club del Lago, where she would meet Bilal. In the following season it could be explained that the reason for having been working at the Club was that her father had canceled her credit cards.

Graduation: Samuel and Rebeka officially graduate from Las Encinas, similar to what we saw for the rest of the characters in S3 (but without Valerio and Guzmán, as both would have dropped out in S4).
Samuel death: It would still happen, and it would still be at the hands of Benjamin. However, the reasons could turn out to be different:

Ari would have started to move away from her father this season, after the last scene we would have had of her and Samu at the end of S4. She would refuse to continue investigating her classmates and friends for him.
She and Samu would have ended up the previous season, but they would still somehow not let go of each other. Benjamin realizes this, and begins to suspect that Samuel has something to do with Ari's refusal to want to continue helping him.
Benjamin would begin to suspect that Samuel had "washed her mind" to Ari to leave the Polo case aside because he himself had been involved, in some way, following the fact of his closeness with Christian, and that he would discover that Samu had been visiting him in prison the previous semester. Benjamín would had been blackmailing Samu for the past few months to give him information about it. Samuel would not have opened his mouth (remember, in S3 a pact of silence was made to protect Lucrecia).
In a final fit of rage trying to make him confess, Benjamin ends up pushing him into the pool, where Samu hits his head on the edge, bleeding to death.

^\***************************************************************************************************************************)
T6. Ivan's accident, and subsequent coma: “After the death of a student, Las Encinas faces a new school year trying to have an image wash by covering up past disasters. The students try to achieve their goals, but will they all reach their goal alive?
Season 6 Characters List:

Felipe Rosón Caleruega.
Patrick Blanco Benavent.
Ariadna Blanco Benavent.
Mencía Blanco Benavent.
Isadora Artiñán.
Iván Carvalho.
Nicolás “Nico” Fernandez.
Dídac.
Sara.
Rocío.
Raúl.
Cruz Carvalho.

The season begins three months after the murder of Samuel and the imprisonment of Benjamín Blanco.

Rebeka graduated from Las Encinas and left Madrid. Also Caye is gone.
The three Benjamins + Felipe, Isadora & Iván are beginning their last year at Las Encinas. Dídac and Sara are also in the same course as them.
It would be implied that Nico and Rocío are a junior class.

The events of season 6 happen in a very similar way to what we originally saw, since that season was thought of as a reboot of the show, and it returned to recover all the vibes of the first generation. As I mentioned in the S4 section, at this point the sexual morbidity of the show was greatly reduced, and at all times there was a great feeling of togetherness, even with the new characters (something that, I dare say, we had never had before in Elite, not even with the original gen).
Isadora's plot:

This story remains largely the same, finally getting the justice she had been seeking since the previous season.
The only thing that would change in this plot is the part of "justice into one's own hand" (referring to the chemical sterilization of heraggressors). And let's see, I UNDERSTAND why, her context of "justice failed me", but I feel that at the script level, the message of the series of "an eye for an eye / fire with fire" is very wrong, ESPECIALLY if at the end she was going to have that closure of justice that the plot and the character deserve.

Cruz Calvalho's plot: the hate crime plot against Cruz is also removed…

I understand that it's a key point in the Season, and honestly when I saw it I did "like it", although I felt a lot of helplessness and pity. But really, Cruz was a character who was SUPER promising for the future, a publicly gay professional footballer? Even today, with all the acceptance that exists, the number of players openly belonging to the LGBTIQ+ community can seriously be counted on the fingers of one hand.
Cruz's public coming out could mean so many things publicly, and it was going to break an entire status quo… and they just made him die for a hate crime because he is who he is.
I know that it tries to represent the reality in which we are living, BUT, in the show, the real reason for his death is based on causing a rupture between Patrick and Iván's relationship… so there THAT is my problem: Cruz exposes himself because he knew that Iván and Patrick had something special, that Patrick was important to his son. So simply killing him to make those characters break up? For what, what use would it all have been? Nope…just not.

Relationships of the season, without too many changes:

Patrick and Iván (without the breakup or the toxicity that they originally carried this season): Let's say they had a fight at the end of S6 for x reasons, which did make Iván tell Patrick that he didn't want to see him again. This being Patrick's reason for leaving him while he was in the hospital.
Isadora and Dídac: Without too many changes. Both belong to two families in charge of hotels, which are competitors in Spain. A possible Romeo & Juliet style posed for S7.
Rocío and Bilal: Same plot, with him approaching her for the sole reason of getting a benefit from her (for her money).
Ari and Nico. Same plot.
Raul and Sara. Same plot.

We would still have the departure of the Blanco siblings for the end, but this time, it would NOT be having "reconciled" with their father.

Ari would eventually testify AGAINST him, for Samuel's crime.
They had come to Las Encinas in search of information about Polo, but only at the request of his father. It was not something that interested them, and they had nothing to continue doing there. In addition, there was the Mencía "thing" with Iván's accident…
For the first time we would see Ari in the position of a true big sister, taking action to protect her family (as we originally saw). As a symbolic way of Ari's detachment from her father, we see her refusing to be called that way again, since "Ari" was her father's nickname for her. From that day on, she would be Ariadna… not Ariadna Blanco, but with her mother last name... Ariadna Benavent.

Knowing that Iván's character is still signed for S7 (unlike Patrick; this is confirmed by Manu's absence at the beginning of the season recordings), we could achieve a fitting ending for this couple by using a Short Story between Seasons 6 and 7.
^\***************************************************************************************************************************)
Anddddddd here it is! My take for a rewrite of this show, which I feel started at the top of everything and gradually went down in quality, although it still has a lot of potential. I'm proud of how all six seasons turned out as a whole, though I still feel like these last three seasons feel a bit incomplete compared to the first ones. So what do you guys think? Would you add or take away something that I added? Did you like the changes? I'm new here, and this is my first real post on reddit, so I'd really appreciate your feedback ^-^

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2023.06.03 00:02 AutoModerator [I HAVE] Iman Gadzhi Agency Navigator FULL updated course And 3,000+ MORE FREE courses

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2023.06.02 23:59 CazOnReddit Alright, Let's Talk About the 3rd Pick & a Potential Siakam Trade With Portland

So have you heard that the Blazers are looking to shop around the 3rd pick and Anfernee Simons for a star forward? Yeah, let's finally get into this.
The Blazers lucked themselves into a rather unique position, both with the pick they got - having jumped from 5th to 3rd in the draft - and with the team who managed to get the 2nd pick being the Charlotte Hornets who are likely to draft forward Brandon Miller over G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson, with Scoot seemingly falling to 3.
This would make Scoot the 2nd young guard the Blazers recently drafted and their 3rd under 25 guard to play next to Dame...if they weren't trying to shop the pick around.
They have a perfect opportunity to finally do a rebuild...and yet, here we are with yet another rumor about the Blazers trying to build around Dame and get him the help they've left him without for...what, 8 seasons and counting? Like the Rockets who are alleged to be interested in moving the 4th pick, I don't think the Blazers really should be trying to do a two timelines, pseudo rebuild while contending around Lillard.
I also don't think the package they can put together is as great as it's often hyped up to be. As we'll get into, a package around Anfernee and the 3rd pick plus a player or pick or two is quite decent in a vacuum but it certainly isn't good enough to get to get you that Top 10-15 player in the league who can singlehandedly win you a series - if not, a championship. It certainly isn't enough to outbid the likes of the Jazz or, more significantly, the Thunder who may opt for a splash in the offseason as their core develops into a young, hungry playoff team with some greater veteran presence around them.
I'm just going to say it: If Portland really is saying "time's up" and putting together one last effort to compete against Dame, they need to do more than get Siakam, O.G., Karl-Anthony Towns or whichever star's name pops up in rumors leading up to the draft. Not to say those players won't improve the team, but none of them - and yes i'm including Siakam - are good enough to elevate a former lottery team like the Blazers over the past 2 seasons to a Top 3 seed, let alone guarantee a championship.
A duo of Siakam and Dame, Dame and KAT, etc. can be part of one's core championship team but they need the right supporting pieces around them in order to win. To put it mildly, the Blazers...do not have that. Jusuf Nurkic has seen significant regression as a defender and the bench is one of the few to make the Raptors bench look like a bastion of basketball greatness. It shows on the floor and statistically, and it's a large reason why the Blazers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league over the past, one of the worst when it comes to rebounding and in general being near the bottom of the Western Conference before they pulled the plug on their most recent season in an attempt to tank for a Top 4 pick.
If the Blazers are actually going to commit to Dame, they need to engage in a paradigm shift this offseason. Rework the starting 5, the bench and go all-in getting Loyalty McLoyal the team he should have had around him for years instead of endlessly running it back with minor tweaks to who his #2 is.
That means either getting your pick back from the Bulls and shopping the 4 firsts/3 swaps you can or removing the protections and dealing out the 3/3 you would have to improve the roster. Don't just get Siakam, KAT or whoever and set them up to fail with Damian because it's not fair to either player to put them in that situation.
Go after Buddy Hield, see if Myles Turner or Clint Capela are going to be available, or if the Wolves are desperate enough to sign and trade Naz Reid to recoup some assets after the costly Gobert trade - if not, try signing him with the full MLE. And you don't stop there! However they plan to shake up the roster in this hypothetical scenario, they need to significantly improve the center position/rotation and their bench to give Dame an actual chance of winning a ring with what few years left they have in his prime.
Also fire Chauncey Billups, he's a bottom 3 coach and the only reason I can't say he is not the worst is because I can't say the Raptors coach will be objectively worse/better without knowing who will head either team. He isn't 3rd, that's for sure.
But anyway that's the Blazers prerogative. What exactly could the Raptors see in a potential pick that, presumably, revolves around Pascal Siakam?
Since I can be a bit of a wordy writer, i'm going to add some TL;DR sections for each playepick discussed in this little piece for those that want a quick breakdown.
Note: This is not a trade proposal; this is a compilation of the assets and players who could be included in a trade for Pascal Siakam. Additionally, this is not an endorsement of trading Pascal Siakam, etc. in a deal with the Portland Trailblazers.
Anfernee Simons
https://preview.redd.it/eon5unll7d3b1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=2873b3d89092d0e0c221ee9817335918489f2e7e
The main player who's been the subject of a contentious discussion between Blazers fans and Raptors fans. Whether you think he's overrated, underrated or somewhere inbetween, it is undeniable that Anfernee Simons would have to be included in the trade at minimum.
I can't speak for the Blazers and I won't pretend to speak for all Raptors fans so let me just say this: I like Anfernee Simons. He's one of the more exciting players in the league under 25 even if he doesn't have the same ceiling as a guy like Zion or fellow player nicknamed "Ant" Anthony Edwards.
A borderline All-Star guard with a combination of shooting prowess and explosiveness, he had a breakout season in 2021/22 when Dame went down due to an injury and thus became the Blazers lead point guard in his absence. He's a genuine 3-level scorer who can splash from outside, pressure the rim for a high-flying dunk and he's effective in the midrange too. If nothing else, it cannot be overstated how nice it would be for this team to have another player who's a reliable, 38.7% from 3 volume shooter on a roster so thoroughly lacking in outside shooting
And before you say it, yes, Anfernee Simons is a point guard. This isn't a case like CJ where his skillset is that of a 2 who can do some playmaking but shouldn't run your offense, Simons does have some issues with dribbling the air out of the ball before making a pass, but he is a point guard. He isn't a typical point, operating more as a shoot-first point like Lillard, but he's still capable of cracking out a notable number of assists while getting buckets; he dished out 6 dimes a game with nearly 28 points in the games he's played without Dame as the lead point.
All 11 of them last year.
https://preview.redd.it/nwhosg3d8d3b1.png?width=1945&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d01cd6a71d032cf5e3bab941c00fc942148991c
Yeah, you might have seen some posts or stats online of what Simons has done without Damian Lillard; in his breakout season of 2021/22, the Anferno was putting up a similar number of assists and cracked 20 points per game, albeit over a more significant sample size of 30 games. And in 2022/23, Anfernee Simons put up 27.9/2.9/5.7 (2.4 turnovers so an AST/TO of 2.38:1 which is solid) while shooting a staggering 41% from 3 on 11 3s.
Those numbers are impressive in a vacuum; his true shooting of 62% is especially notable. However, they require some context and should be taken with an enormous grain of salt.
For one, it's a very small sample size over a lengthy period of the season where teams haven't had to plan for Simons to be the main guard to focus their defense on. He's still the 2nd option so it's not like there's no film watching or the like, but if Anfernee Simons permanently becomes the lead point guard of a team, opposing teams will gameplan around him and his weaknesses more significantly than the very few times where he's asked to be the lead ballhandler in Dame's absence.
His 2021/22 stats, while still a limited overall sample size, do suggest he'll be able to dish out a similar number of dimes as the lead guard (Dame had been ruled out due to injury during the season so teams did have to gameplan around the Ant for a large portion of the season instead of a handful of games scattered throughout the season) and he still has room to grow as a playmaker but once again, it was only a sample size of 30 games so it is hard to draw much out from the games he played.
Speaking of drawing conclusions from said sample size: Yes the Blazers went 4-7 within that 11 game sample size - and bear in mind this sample included games where the Blazers were still trying to contend while facing a variety of teams i.e. not every team was a playoff or contender. That isn't great, however, Ant was generally not the main reason they lost since the 2022/23 Blazers as a whole were pretty terrible all year, even before they blatantly tanked. The same is also true of his breakout year when the Blazers lost Lillard due to injury, they just weren't a good team.
If there is a point of contention around Simons that one can draw from his past 2 seasons, it's his defense which...it's bad.
It's really bad.
He's improved this season on that end to the point where i'd say he's a better defender than Dame - even if his overall defensive rating doesn't support this, the eye test does - but that's like saying Spencer Dinwiddie is a better defender than Trae Young. While Chauncey Billups hasn't been doing either one of Portland's guard any favors, it doesn't change the fact that being better than one of the worst defenders in the league is not an accomplishment to be proud of. All coaching issues aside, Simons is still a notable negative on that end of the floor. He has a propensity for losing his man via ball watching, he's not great at closing out on the perimeter and he's not a lane disruptor by any means. It's not impossible for him to improve as a defender - he's 6'3 with a 6'9 wingspan and much of his defensive weaknesses come from a lack of discipline - but as of right now when his shots aren't falling he's a major liability on the court and his flaws on defense were not well hidden when paired next to another notably poor defender in Dame.
There are a couple of other habits that Simons needs to address - he could stand to be less trigger happy as a scorer and work more on his playmaking given all the promise he's shown in that area - but that's the main issue with Simons. He's a very skilled guard with a similar approach to the game as Dame on both ends of the floor. And we all know Dame isn't locking down the opposing team's point.
Does Anfernee Simons seem like he'll become a guard on the level of Dame? No but that's a ridiculously high bar to hold him to, especially with the limited opportunities he had and will continue to have when he's behind Dame in the guard pecking order. Anfernee is a good player who often shows glimmers of true greatness on offense but whose defense (or lack thereof) is going to require very careful teambuilding to limit exploiting said defense in the playoffs. Perhaps he'll need to be the full-time point to fully achieve his potential as a playmaker but while he doesn't scream All-NBA caliber, he's someone you can easily see eking out a couple of All-Star nods at his peak and is, at worst, a staring-caliber guard. As for whether he can be the lead of a championship contender...we'll get to that when we talk about the pick he'd come with.
TL;DR - Anfernee Simons is an intriguing young player with upside as an explosive, shoot-first PG but one whose poor defense does mean the team's starting lineup/bench has to be built around carefully to account for his current (and likely ongoing throughout his career) weaknesses.
3rd Pick
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It's whomever is left from Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller. Maybe you trade down to 4 for some more assets if you're a believer in Amen Thompson, maybe you take Amen if you think he's the best player available and the Rockets won't negotiate for Scoot/Miller but yeah, it's one of those three via the 3rd overall pick.
Before we get into the players, I do want to briefly mention that I actually did a post a while ago on a different sub going over trades involving the 3rd pick and to put it bluntly: The 3rd pick has good value but it doesn't have as much value on its own and trades involving the 3rd pick for an All-Star or even All-NBA caliber player are very rare.
The closest trade to what the Blazers would want in return was in 2000 where the Atlanta Hawks traded the 3rd overall pick to the Vancouver Grizzlies along with Brevin Knight and Lorenzen Wright for Shareef Abdur-Rahim and the 27th overall pick. That 3rd pick turned out to be future HoFer Pau Gasol but no one knew he'd become that at the time. As for what the Grizzlies gave up for the pick, Shareef Abdur-Rahim was not a perennial All-Star nor was he an All-NBA level player. He was a solid player that became an All-Star in his debut season for the Hawks...and that was his only All-Star appearance.
With that in mind, it is a bit wild that it's so commonly suggested that Simons and the 3rd pick alone should be enough to acquire an All-NBA talent like Siakam, especially with how much inflation we've seen in trades for players of that caliber of late or even players who are a step below. Concerns about his contract expiring lowering his value are baffling, as if a team's front office wouldn't talk to him about an extension before making such a trade. Moreover, it's not like the Raptors need to deal him out when they can simply re-sign him in 2024.
Now this year, when Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller could be up for grabs, the 3rd pick has a lot more value given how highly praised those players are, so let's put aside the debate on what is fair for Siakam for a moment and talk about the presumed 3rd overall pick, Scoot Henderson.
The 2nd best player in a draft class containing the best prospect since LeBron James. He's projected to go 3rd because Charlotte is allegedly interested in taking Brandon Miller at 2nd but we'll touch on that later. For now, let's talk Scoot:

Henderson is a freakish athlete and a terrific floor general; he racked up an average of 6 assists a night on an AST:TO ratio of 1.94:1 and is a strong option on offense due to his abilities as a slasher
His usage as the G-League Ignite's offense, be it ball screens or handoffs, displayed his ability to break down a team's defense
- To delve deeper into his production as an offensive guard, his percentage rate of ball screens (43.7%) is only matched or surpassed by 7 players across the entire NBA. 7!
Despite the athleticism, Scoot is generally good at controlling the ball and not turning it over due to careless mistakes driving to the basket
For a guard, he's a pretty solid rebounder and, if nothing else, he puts in the effort on defense even if he's not necessarily someone who screams "Future DPoY"
Intangibles are hard to really quantify but Scoot is the definition of someone who "has that dog in him" and he's someone you trust down the stretch to make the right move
He puts in effort on defense but he's only 6'2 with a 6'9 wingspan and, well he's no Kyle Lowry when it comes to taking charges or the like
His shooting is...a work-in-progress; he tends to default to long 2s which he isn't great at making (38% overall), his free throw percentage is only 75% and his 3-point shooting is a measly 31% off the dribble

Needless to say, there's a lot to like about Scoot; if Victor wasn't in this draft, he'd easily go #1 overall. He's often compared to Derrick Rose or even Russell Westbrook as this uber explosive guard who can seriously pressure the rim while generating solid passes for his teammates which is a good comparison though one obviously hope his outside shooting pans out more like Curry or Trae than Russ or Rose.
Losing Siakam would obviously hurt the team in the short term but as far as what Scoot brings, there is a lot of upside to him that would raise the ceiling of the team in the long run. His ability to get to the rim, combined with his athleticism would make him the perfect guard for a team that thrives in transition like the Raptors. He would also have chemistry with another player the Raptors have been rumored to be interested in/may take at 13 in Leonard Miller as they played on the same team but we'll talk about the 13th pick's potential prospects another time.
For now, let's go over one of the problems with trading for Scoot Henderson if he is still on the board, besides the obvious hypothetical of "he might never become a player as good as the one you're giving up" or "what do you do with Fred when you brought in Scoot and Simons" because what you're really asking is this: Is a backcourt of Scoot/Simons the team's guard duo of the future?
This brings me to my big problem with a “trade for Simons + 3” trade if the 3rd pick does end up being Scoot: A backcourt of two undersized guards, one of whom is unproven against NBA competition on defense and the other of whom has been one of the worst guard defenders in the league is not a duo of guards you can build a contender around in the long-term unless both of them become significantly improved defenders. Or at the very least, it's a duo that has historically not led to notable championship contention.
Blazers fans would know this well given their team has only had one year where they weren’t the in the NBA’s basement as far as defensive ratings go, be it with CJ or Anfernee as Lillard’s sidekick; the furthest they ever got with either was the Western Conference Finals and the best their defense has even been was 10th. Every other season, the Trailblazers defense has been amongst the worst in the NBA. Part of those Blazers teams' failures can be attributed to bad coaching, but a more significant portion of the blame be laid at the feet of Dame being a bad defender and undersized who has been paired with bad, undersized guards throughout much of his career.
You can get away with one bad defender or a starter who’s undersized for their position on a championship-caliber team which, if you’re rebuilding by trading away Siakam, that is what you’re hoping to take a step back for. As an example, Dirk Nowitzki wasn’t known for being a lockdown defender and yet the Mavericks won their first and only championship to date with Dirk as the weak link on defense. He was also a phenomenal offensive talent whose weaknesses on defense were mitigated by how much momentum he was able to generate for his team but I digress.
You can get away with running several smaller players for a limited time to force mismatches on offense with the right lineup. The Warriors dynasty comes to mind, where Golden State would close games using their “Death Lineup”. However, that lineup revolved around 4 Hall of Famers (Klay, Dray, Steph, Igoudala) where Steph is the lineup’s weakest link on defense, and this is before we acknowledge that they were able to include yet another HoFer in Kevin Durant to replace Harrison Barnes in a different incarnation of the Death Lineup from 2017 onward.
For that matter, it's not wholly impossible to win a championship with a duo of small guards - the Pistons repeated in the 89/90-90/91 with 6'3 Joe Dumars and 6'1 Isiah Thomas and the Bad Boy Pistons were contenders throughout the 90s - but it is damn near impossible if your lead guards are bad defenders. Whatever can be said about Thomas' various off-court controversies, notably with him being found liable for sexual misconduct during his stint heading a woman's basketball team a la the New York Liberty, he was a phenomenal defender, as was Dumars.
Hell, the Raptors won in 2019 while having Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry share the floor a fair amount of time in the Finals though it is once again worth noting that both were terrific defenders at the time. Even if one wouldn't call their efforts All-Defense caliber, they were both positives on that end of the floor.
Historically speaking, you cannot be a championship-caliber team with two of your starters being undersized negatives on the defensive end barring them being surrounded by generational defenders or said starters being generational offensive players who can make up for how many points you’re giving up on the other end of the floor.
Simons is a gifted scorer with good playmaking but is a truly sorry defender. Scoot Henderson is a talented passer but is undersized for the position and how he fares defensively with teams hunting him as the smallest player on the court will remain to be seen. But with neither of them likely to be a Dumars/Thomas-level defender and the offensive capabilities for one of them being the main question mark as to how good a player they could become, having both of them as the foundation to your team's backcourt seems to cement the duo's future as a non-contending entity.
Let's put this into perspective with some statistics: Of the past 40 years, the only championship to ever be won by a team with what could be considered a bad regular season defensive rating was the 2000/01 Lakers. That team had two generational talents in Shaq and Kobe, and that season is itself an outlier when compared to the rest of the Shaq/Kobe Lakers era that it shouldn't even count. All other championship teams were at least 12th or higher for their season with most championship teams being in the Top 5 in defensive rating.
By the by, in case you're wondering: That team who had 12th in defensive rating was the 1995 Rockets led by the generational talent in Hakeem Olajuwon and said rating had a lot to do with untimely injuries to the 95 Rockets core. That team they still managed to have the 7th best offensive rating in the league despite Drexler's absence for much of the season is a testament to Future Raptors Retiree Hakeem's skills as the best big man of the late 80s, early-to-mid 90s. Are we noticing a pattern here?
Even if we ignore the question about what to do with Fred, the question of what the Raptors backcourt looks like is far more pertinent if it is going to involve some combination of Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons with, presumably, Gary Trent Jr. and another guard coming off the bench for relief. Is a backcourt of Anfernee Simons and Scoot going to turn this team into a Top 3-6 offense for the season without plummeting this team's defense off of a cliff? And if you don't think so, when do you move one of them to open up the 1 or the 2 for another player?
This is a question the team will likely have to answer once they've seen how Simons and Scoot fit togethefit with the rest of the roster; I don't see a 3-team draft day deal where Simons or the 3rd pick are moved elsewhere barring that aforementioned moving down to 4th and I don't see this team without Siakam/with Scoot and Simons being a serious contender for several years even if they do pan out. But it is a question that has me concerned in regards to how this team will function when it's developing a dynamic duo of players who will be picked apart in the playoffs barring one of them turning into a terrific defender.
Whatever else one can say about Point Scottie or even Scottie Barnes when he was crammed into the starting Shooting Guard position for much of the year, it is hard to argue that having either Scottie or Trent & Simons/Scoot as your backcourt makes way more sense defensively even if having both Scottie and Scoot complicates matters on the offensive end since neither are great shooters and Trent's defense is a touch overrated at time due to is propensity to gamble for steals.
All this being said, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Henderson becomes an All-Defense-caliber player or for Simons to a climb out from the deep hole he's dug for himself as one of the worst defenders in the league, and Scoot is still a phenomenal talent. These concerns should be noted, but they shouldn't serve to deter from selecting him 3rd if such a trade were to go down. As a prospect, there's very few players in this draft class who could serve to singlehandedly raise the floor and the ceiling of this team in the long run.
Speaking of other players, however, it should be acknowledged that Scoot isn't the only potentially available player at 3; while all accounts suggest the Hornets prefer Brandon Miller at 3, Scoot is the best player available at 2 and there's no guarantee the Hornets draft for fit. So here's a quick rundown of Miller and a player the Blazers have recently worked out, Amen Thompson:

Brandon Miller is a 6'9 forward (boo, we have enough of those!) who can shoot (yay, we need more of that!) and has some notable playmaking upside even if his decision-making can be questionable at times. He's a player you could see as either a #1 or a high level #2 option on a championship team though he's not the most switchable guy on defense and you have the usual rookie concerns i.e. "he needs to get the NBA body to thrive". He's gotten a lot of comparisons to Paul George but i'd say his playmaking is further ahead from what PG13 was as a prospect.
Amen Thompson is someone I talked about in the trade for the 4th pick & he's a very interesting player. A high ceiling, low floor player with unreal athleticism, a 6'7 lead guard who's arguably the best passer in the draft class but has serious questions about the competition he's faced in OverTime Elite/his shooting being as bad as it was. Think Ja Morant but with defense and, again, at 6'7 with a much longer wingspan.

I feel like the trade makes more sense if the Raptors were to go for Amen or Miller but we won't know who the Hornets will chose on draft night until the day of & ideally you'd trade down for 4th to get Thompson plus assets if you're sold on Amen. Plus like I said, it is possible that Scoot does become a good or even great defender so one might not have to worry about choosing between him and Ant down the line.
TL;DR - Scoot is an amazing prospect but his pairing with Simons could be a major problem in the future if both don't improve defensively. Ironically, the 3rd pick becomes simultaneously more valuable for other teams/less valuable for the Raptors if it's Scoot and vice-versa if it's Miller due to those concerns. Thompson is a wildcard at 3 depending on who has the pick/how willing the Rockets are to trade up to 3rd.
Nassir Little
Portland is reluctant to deal out Sharpe. We can debate on whether or not it's fair value for an All-NBA caliber player like Siakam, how much his contract being expiring should affect a deal (we'll ignore the fact that he can be extended by Portland and that any front office making a trade like this should be doing their due diligence by speaking to Pascal Siakam beforehand) or how good Sharpe actually was as a rookie overall instead of solely focusing on that stretch where the Blazers let him do whatever because they were tanking but regardless, the Blazers seem intent on keeping him. Fair enough, Masai is likely aiming for more than Anfernee and 3 - especially for the reasons listed above if it is Scoot Henderson - but Sharpe is likely a hard sell for the front office even if they are going all-in i.e. they want to keep at least one young guy on the roster for the long-term.
That being said, there's still the matter of salary matching, and that's where one of Nassir Little or Sharpe has to come in (They're not going to move Nurkic in the deal for Siakam unless they have something lined up for their center situation i.e. tampering for Naz Reid); the only way for the Blazers to neatly absorb Siakam into their cap with just Simons is by renouncing their rights to Jerami Grant and they need to re-sign him/move him to the 3 (Grant is a really bad rebounder for a PF; the man is a career 4 RPG) if they are serious about competing with Dame.
So...yeah, Nassir Little. Little is what people think O.G. is: A good defender who is often injured, Little is a solid 3 & D wing who, unlike Anunoby, has never played more than 55 games for a given season. Granted, 2019/20 and 2020/21 were shorted to 72 seasons but regardless, injuries have hampered the 23 year-old in the same way that Otto Porter Jr.'s potential was sapped due to a career-long battle with injuries. Still, when considering his age and production, his newest contract ($28M/4 years) is amazing value when he's healthy.
But much like Otto (who I think technically could be sent in such a deal due to the rules around incoming/outgoing salaries), the question of when he's available is a common one. Little is a good young player but one whom you shouldn't get your hopes up about changing the team's direction.
TL;DR - A little salary (sorry) is needed for the deal to happen on draft night & Nassir would be a decent choice for forward depth off the bench. One will have to carefully factor in injury concerns when evaluating the team's depth.
Keon Johnson
So like I said, Sharpe is likely to be ruled out. I debated if I should cover him at all but i'm honestly not sold on Shaedon as a prospect and we've already met the quota for rants with the "Simons/Scoot frontcourt will be exploited" talks. That said, I don't think the Raptors would settle for just Simons and the 3rd pick or the 3rd pick plus assets from a 3rd team were Anfernee moved due to the aforementioned backcourt issues with Simons and Scoot. For now we have Keon Johnson.
Fun fact: When the Raptors were expected to draft 7th in the 2021 draft, Johnson was a common player mocked for the 7th pick.
He wound up going in the 20 to the Clippers (via the Knicks in a trade) who eventually fleeced the Blazers in a deal including him for Norman Powell.
Keon Johnson...hasn't really done a whole lot thus far. He was noted for having an impressive vertical of 48" at the 2021 combine which broke a previous record, he's a terrific athlete and he's about the same age as Scottie so he lines up with a rebuild or retool around Barnes...
...and that's where the positives end. Like I said, Keon hasn't demonstrated all that much on either team he's been on. For a guard, he's not a great ball handler, he isn't a good shooter, he's got decent size and the speed to be a good defender from 1-3 but his potential on that end does not All-Defense caliber. He'd be a throw-in that you'd hope can develop over time, likely spending a lot of time in the G-League because as of right now, he isn't going to be a significant contributor on either end.
TL;DR - Keon is on a rookie deal so you'd be taking a flier on him/betting on your development bringing out the best in him if he were included.
Other pick(s): As far as immediate draft capital goes, the Blazers have the 23rd pick in this draft, which is around the range where players the Raptors have been rumored to be interested in/interviewed (Bilal Couliby, GG Jackson) would likely be available. There's been some speculation that the Blazers could send this pick to the Bulls so they can get their owed pick back from Chicago but nothing concrete has come out regarding whether the Bulls would settle for that vs. hoping the Blazers make the 1st round and lose so they can get a pick in the 16-20 range.
That said, the future pick owed to the Bulls is where things get tricky if the Raptors did want a future 1st: The Blazers pick is protected until 2028. It is technically possible for them to offer a swap in 2029 but without the protections being removed on the Bulls-bound 2024 1st (The 2029 pick cannot be moved due to the Stepien Rule), any future draft capital would need to come in the form of the 2023 trade deadline's currency of choice: Second round picks.
Some of the notable 2nds include:

A 2024 2nd that could come from the Hornets or Wolves
A 2028 Warriors 2nd
This year's second via the Hawks which is 45th
The Blazers own 2nd in 2028

Not that these are a good substitute for a first-rounder but with the Blazers draft capital being restricted and the CBA's changes to 2nd round contracts, it's better than no future firsts if the 2023 Knicks pick is considered a bridge too far.
TL;DR - There is some interesting draft capital here beyond their own 1sts, especially if the 23rd pick is available in a deep draft like this, but ideally one would want a future 1st from the Blazers rather than a handful of 2nds given Dame's limited window.
Conclusion
I was originally going to talk about the 4th overall pick too but this got a bit lengthy so I made that into a separate post. As far as the 3rd pick package, in some ways it's better than one surrounding the 4th pick because Simons is a flatout better player than any one the Rockets would send back but it's also worse when you factor in Simons or Scoot's respective ceilings vs some of the potential prospects that could come in a 4th pick package?
You're getting significant depth at the guard position if it is Scoot/Simons but there's a huge question mark as to how good the defense will hold up with two undersized guards, one of whom is a bad defender, will hold up in the playoffs.

submitted by CazOnReddit to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 23:54 AM2693MS A horror story using 10 obscure and random words...

Here's the link
I used the free version of ChatGPT.
Question: Write a horror story using these 10 words: bastardizied, inspirational, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, Santa Claus, 888819619, boo, unga-boonga, LMFAO, quidnunc, accismus

Answer:
Once upon a time, in a small town shrouded in darkness, a tale of horror unfolded. The community had long been a bastion of inspiration and joy, but that was about to change. Unbeknownst to the unsuspecting townsfolk, an evil force had arrived, its influence lurking in the shadows.
It started innocently enough, with whispers of a mysterious disease spreading through the town. Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, an insidious condition, began plaguing the residents, their health deteriorating rapidly. Panic gripped the town as the afflicted searched desperately for answers, but the cause remained elusive.
Amidst the chaos, a peculiar figure emerged—a Santa Claus like no other. This distorted and bastardized version of the beloved character appeared with a sinister grin, wielding a sack filled not with gifts but with nightmares. Children who approached him would never be seen again, their innocent laughter replaced with chilling cries of terror.
Rumors of a strange numeric sequence, "888819619," circulated among the quidnuncs of the town. Some claimed it was the key to salvation, while others believed it to be a malevolent code linked to the horrors befalling their community. Fear settled over the inhabitants like a thick fog, their once inspirational lives shattered by the encroaching darkness.
One night, as the town lay in restless slumber, a blood-curdling cry echoed through the streets. A series of haunting "boos" reverberated from house to house, sending shivers down spines. And then, the dreadful chant of "unga-boonga" filled the air, a haunting incantation that summoned unimaginable terrors from the depths of the unknown.
As chaos reigned, a group of brave souls banded together, determined to confront the source of their nightmares. Armed with their wits and an unyielding spirit, they embarked on a perilous journey to unravel the mystery plaguing their town.
Their quest led them to a derelict building on the outskirts, where they discovered the origin of their torment—a forgotten idol, tainted with ancient evil. And as they confronted the malevolence head-on, a chilling voice echoed through the room, taunting them with the acronym of laughter, "LMFAO."
One by one, the brave souls fell victim to the accismus of the malevolent entity, their bodies contorted, twisted into grotesque forms. Despair threatened to consume them, but in their darkest hour, a glimmer of hope emerged—a shard of light piercing through the encroaching darkness.
With their remaining strength, the survivors fought back, wielding the light against the abomination that plagued their town. The battle was fierce, but their resilience prevailed, banishing the evil that had plagued them for far too long.
As dawn broke, the townsfolk emerged from their homes, their eyes filled with a mixture of relief and sadness. They had survived, but the scars of their harrowing ordeal would forever remain etched upon their souls.
The once vibrant and inspirational town had been forever changed. Its spirit had been tainted, its innocence lost. And as the survivors reflected upon their experiences, they vowed to remain vigilant, knowing that true horror could lurk even within the most idyllic of places.
And so, the tale of the town haunted by a bastardized Santa Claus, the enigma of "888819619," the echoing cries of "boo" and "unga-boonga," the wickedness embodied in LMFAO, the curiosity of the quidnuncs, and the power of accismus, faded into local folklore, a constant reminder of the darkness that lay just beyond the surface of their seemingly ordinary lives.

submitted by AM2693MS to ChatGPT [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 23:36 lostcoastline44 Possibly looking for a new bike

I currently have a Kona Big Honzo and I want to upgrade to a 29er. I’m a bigger guy so I feel the 29 would help me a lot. Yes I know the honzo could swap to a 29 and that’s one of my options but the bike feels like a major lug going up hill and was at least looking for some insight on if throwing 29s on it would make it any better for climbing.
The trails I usually ride are a solid 50/50 mix of uphill pedaling and downhill so something that pedals nice uphill would be nice but I do still like the flow of downhill so I’d sacrifice a little of the uphill if need be. I usually ride about 12 miles every time I go. I might occasionally go to a local downhill park but not often; maybe once or twice a year if that. Price range is about $2,000 US and was mostly looking at hardtail but I’d heavily consider a good quality full squish in the $2500 range. The bikes I’ve been eyeing the most are the Nukeproof Scout, Santa Cruz Chameleon, or the Devinci Kobain. Any help is much appreciated!

submitted by lostcoastline44 to MTB [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 23:12 thatoneboyaiden Lincoln Daily Discussion Results!

Ana Ng: 9.70
Where Your Eyes Don't Go: 9.60
Kiss Me, Son Of God: 9.59
Hey, Mr. DJ, I Thought You Said We Had A Deal: 9.47
Nightgown Of The Sullen Moon: 9.45
They'll Need A Crane: 9.33
It's Not My Birthday: 9.26
Weep Day: 9.21
Snowball In Hell: 9.17
Cowtown: 9.11
Purple Toupee: 8.99
Shoehorn With Teeth: 8.87
I've Got A Match: 8.75
Mr. Me: 8.68
I'll Sink Manhattan: 8.44
Lie Still, Little Bottle: 8.10
Stand On Your Own Head: 7.73
The World's Address: 7.72
Cage And Aquarium: 7.60
Piece Of Dirt: 7.54
Pencil Rain: 7.50
Santa's Beard: 7.40
Birds Fly: 7.22
Become A Robot: 7.08
Lady Is A Tramp: 7.07
You'll Miss Me: 6.42
I'm Gettin' Sentimental Over You: 6.04
The Big Big Whoredom: 5.69
The World's Address (Joshua Fried Remix): 5.66
Hello Radio: 5.53
Counterfeit Fake: 5.11
Swing Is A Word: 4.49

A few thoughts about this round.
This was certainly a high scoring category. Ana Ng thankfully took the top spot, but I was surprised to see how many other tracks like Cowtown and Shoehorn With Teeth rose the ranks.
The tracks that really surprised me were the They'll Need A Crane B-Sides. I love them, but I did not realize how beloved they were by the fandom. At one point Nightgown Of The Sullen Moon and It's Not My Birthday held the top spots.
I love to see Hey Mr. DJ and Weep Day rise the ranks. Although the ranking is very Linnell heavy, I'm glad we at least got Flansy's beautiful Snowball In Hell in the top 10, which I thought would've gotten a lot higher.
Once again, I don't really disagree with a lot of the bottom rankings, despite a personal love for Become A Robot.
I would love to hear what you all think about the ranking in the comments, but oveerall, this was a fantastic round this time around. I'm going to take a short break for a week or so, but then I'll be back to cover the Flood tracks and the Istanbul B-Sides!

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